新阶段的中美战略博弈与中国对美战略
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摘要
中美关系在百年变局中必将经历深刻复杂调整,双方战略博弈在所难免。在此过程中,由于美国自信下降和焦虑感增强,其对华政策可能更加激进,对竞争的强调或超过对合作的寻求。博弈过程中,中美两国各有优劣势,短期内美国优势突出而中国相对被动,中长期看两国优势将渐趋平衡。中美战略博弈将是21世纪上半叶国际政治发展的主轴和决定性要素,也是中国面临的最大外部挑战。为因应新的现实,中国需做与时俱进的战略调整。若得到恰当引导,两国博弈将有助于纠正国际秩序失衡,实现中美两国及世界各国的共同演进。
Sino-US relations will definitely experience adjustments as the world is facing complex changes. The two countries are involved in strategic games. Since the confidence in America is fading and anxiety is increasing,its China policy becomes more radical. The two sides have their own strength and weakness respectively in the competition. In the short term,America is holding the upper hand and China is in a relatively passive position. It the medium-and long-term,there will be more balance between the two. The strategic games between China and the US will be the major issue of international politics in the first half of the 21 st century and the most prominent external challenge China faces. China needs to make strategic adjustments to deal with the new situation. The strategic games,if well treated,will be helpful in terms of correcting the imbalance of the international order and the co-evolution of both the two countries and the whole world.
Sino-US relations will definitely experience adjustments as the world is facing complex changes. The two countries are involved in strategic games. Since the confidence in America is fading and anxiety is increasing,its China policy becomes more radical. The two sides have their own strength and weakness respectively in the competition. In the short term,America is holding the upper hand and China is in a relatively passive position. It the medium-and long-term,there will be more balance between the two. The strategic games between China and the US will be the major issue of international politics in the first half of the 21 st century and the most prominent external challenge China faces. China needs to make strategic adjustments to deal with the new situation. The strategic games,if well treated,will be helpful in terms of correcting the imbalance of the international order and the co-evolution of both the two countries and the whole world.
引文
(1)Daniel Runde and Romina Bandura, “The BUILD Act Has Passed: What’s Next?” Oct. 12, 2018, https://www.csis.org/analysis/build-act-has-passed-whats-next.(上网日期:2019年3月15日)
(2)Mark Landler and Edward Wong, “Bolton Outlines a Strategy for Africa That’s Really About Countering China,” The New York Times, Dec. 13, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/john-bolton-africa-china.html;Steve Holland and Lesley Wroughton, “U.S. to counter China, Russia influence in Africa –Bolton,” Dec.13, 2018, Reuters, https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN1OC1Y3-OZATP;Benjamin Creutzfeldt, “China Is Investing in Latin America, and the US is Jealous,” Nov. 1, 2018, The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/414158-china-is-investing-in-latin-america-and-the-us-is-jealous.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
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(4)James Politi, “Trump’s ‘Poison Pill’ in China Trade Fight,” The Financial Times, Oct. 9, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/d5b68530-cab3-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956;Sean Higgins, “US-Mexico-Canada Deal Targets China with ‘Poison Pill’ Provision,” Oct. 7, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/us-mexico-canada-deal-targets-china-with-poison-pill-provision.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
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(6)“Mattis: China Taking ‘Tribute Nation’ Approach to Other Countries,” Mar. 23, 2017, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20170323000600315;Jeremy Bender, “Beijing Could Turn the South China Sea into a ‘Chinese Lake’ by 2030,” Jan. 21, 2016, the Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/south-china-sea-will-be-chinese-lake-by-2030-2016-1;Jennifer Lind, “South China Sea as a Chinese Lake,” The New York Times, Aug. 23, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/08/23/is-playing-tough-in-chinas-interest/south-china-sea-as-a-chinese-lake.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(7)Nyshka Chandran, “Fears of Excessive Debt Drive More Countries to Cut Down Their Belt and Road Investments,” CNBC, Jan. 18, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/countries-are-reducing-belt-and-road-investments-over-financing-fears.html;Adrian Shahbaz, “Freedom on the Net 2018—The Rise of Digital Authoritarianism,” Oct. 2018, https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FOTN_2018_Final%20Booklet_11_1_2018.pdf; Michael Abramowitz and Michael Chertoff, “The Global Threat of China’s Digital Authoritarianism,” The Washington Post, Nov. 1, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-global-threat-of-chinas-digital-authoritarianism/2018/11/01/46d6d99c-dd40-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a91ab8b021e3.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(8)Michael Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, Henry Holt and Co., 2015.
(9)“Attorney General Jeff Sessions Announces New Initiative to Combat Chinese Economic Espionage,” Nov.1, 2018,https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-announces-new-initiative-combat-chinese-economic-espionage; Preston Lim and Rachel Brown, “SinoTech: Department of Justice Launches Initiative to Address Chinese Economic Espionage,” Lawfare, Nov. 14, 2018, https://www.lawfareblog.com/sinotech-department-justice-launches-initiative-address-chinese-economic-espionage.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(10)“Vice President Mike Pence’s Remarks on the Administration’s Policy Towards China,” Oct. 4, 2018, The Hudson Institute, https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-s-remarks-on-the-administration-s-policy-towards-china102018.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(11)《吕氏春秋》,陆玖译注,中华书局出版社,2011年,第465页。
(2)Mark Landler and Edward Wong, “Bolton Outlines a Strategy for Africa That’s Really About Countering China,” The New York Times, Dec. 13, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/us/politics/john-bolton-africa-china.html;Steve Holland and Lesley Wroughton, “U.S. to counter China, Russia influence in Africa –Bolton,” Dec.13, 2018, Reuters, https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN1OC1Y3-OZATP;Benjamin Creutzfeldt, “China Is Investing in Latin America, and the US is Jealous,” Nov. 1, 2018, The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/414158-china-is-investing-in-latin-america-and-the-us-is-jealous.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(3)“2018 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,” Nov. 2018, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/annual_reports/2018%20Annual%20Report%20to%20Congress.pdf.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(4)James Politi, “Trump’s ‘Poison Pill’ in China Trade Fight,” The Financial Times, Oct. 9, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/d5b68530-cab3-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956;Sean Higgins, “US-Mexico-Canada Deal Targets China with ‘Poison Pill’ Provision,” Oct. 7, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/us-mexico-canada-deal-targets-china-with-poison-pill-provision.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(5)“The Opportunity Costs of Socialism,” The Council of Economic Advisers, Oct. 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-Opportunity-Costs-of-Socialism.pdf.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(6)“Mattis: China Taking ‘Tribute Nation’ Approach to Other Countries,” Mar. 23, 2017, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20170323000600315;Jeremy Bender, “Beijing Could Turn the South China Sea into a ‘Chinese Lake’ by 2030,” Jan. 21, 2016, the Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/south-china-sea-will-be-chinese-lake-by-2030-2016-1;Jennifer Lind, “South China Sea as a Chinese Lake,” The New York Times, Aug. 23, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/08/23/is-playing-tough-in-chinas-interest/south-china-sea-as-a-chinese-lake.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(7)Nyshka Chandran, “Fears of Excessive Debt Drive More Countries to Cut Down Their Belt and Road Investments,” CNBC, Jan. 18, 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/countries-are-reducing-belt-and-road-investments-over-financing-fears.html;Adrian Shahbaz, “Freedom on the Net 2018—The Rise of Digital Authoritarianism,” Oct. 2018, https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FOTN_2018_Final%20Booklet_11_1_2018.pdf; Michael Abramowitz and Michael Chertoff, “The Global Threat of China’s Digital Authoritarianism,” The Washington Post, Nov. 1, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-global-threat-of-chinas-digital-authoritarianism/2018/11/01/46d6d99c-dd40-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a91ab8b021e3.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(8)Michael Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, Henry Holt and Co., 2015.
(9)“Attorney General Jeff Sessions Announces New Initiative to Combat Chinese Economic Espionage,” Nov.1, 2018,https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-jeff-sessions-announces-new-initiative-combat-chinese-economic-espionage; Preston Lim and Rachel Brown, “SinoTech: Department of Justice Launches Initiative to Address Chinese Economic Espionage,” Lawfare, Nov. 14, 2018, https://www.lawfareblog.com/sinotech-department-justice-launches-initiative-address-chinese-economic-espionage.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(10)“Vice President Mike Pence’s Remarks on the Administration’s Policy Towards China,” Oct. 4, 2018, The Hudson Institute, https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-s-remarks-on-the-administration-s-policy-towards-china102018.(上网时间:2019年3月15日)
(11)《吕氏春秋》,陆玖译注,中华书局出版社,2011年,第465页。