强震区滑坡活动强度的演变及敏感性评价
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摘要
[目的]探讨汶川地震强震区滑坡的活动强度演变与敏感性,为滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害风险管理提供依据。[方法]选取四川省都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河12条泥石流流域为研究区,通过对研究区震后4期遥感影像的滑坡解译分析,研究震后滑坡的活动演化特征;同时利用概率综合判别法—层次分析法对滑坡物源进行多期敏感性评价。[结果]地震后该区域产生了825个强震滑坡;2009—2017年,在强震滑坡区域外新增376个滑坡,至2017年,仍活动的滑坡数量减少到368个,占滑坡总数的30.6%,同时利用曲线下面积(AUC)检验多期敏感性评价结果,准确率为75.6%～81.4%,评价效果较好。[结论]强震区震后活动滑坡数量及高敏感性区域面积整体表现降低趋势,表明震后滑坡处于逐步恢复过程,强震区的地质灾害活动但活动强度仍远远高于震前。
[Objective]To explore the evolution and susceptibility of landslide activity intensity in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan earthquake in order to provide important practical basis for landslide and debris flow risk management.[Methods]Twelve debris flow basins were selected as study area along Longxi River in Longchi Town,Dujiangyan City,Sichuan Province.Based on the interpretation analysis of the remote sensing images after the earthquake,the evolution characteristics of the landslide after earthquake were studied.At the same time,the probability comprehensive discriminant analysis method and the analytic hierarchy process were used to analyze the susceptibility of landslide.[Results]The 825 co-seismic landslides occurred in the region after the earthquake,and the intensity of landslide activity reduced gradually.From 2009 to 2017,376 new landslides occurred outside of the co-seismic landslide areas.In February 2017,the number of active landslides reduced to 368,accounting for 30.6% of the total landslides.The area under curve(AUC)method was used to test the multi-period evaluation results,the accuracy was 75.6% to 81.4%,and the evaluation results were satisfactory.[Conclusion]The number of active landslides after earthquakes and the area of high sensitive zone in meizoseismal area show a decreasing trend,indicating that the landslides after earthquakes are in the process of gradual recovery,but the activity intensity of geological hazards is still far higher than that before the earthquake.
[Objective]To explore the evolution and susceptibility of landslide activity intensity in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan earthquake in order to provide important practical basis for landslide and debris flow risk management.[Methods]Twelve debris flow basins were selected as study area along Longxi River in Longchi Town,Dujiangyan City,Sichuan Province.Based on the interpretation analysis of the remote sensing images after the earthquake,the evolution characteristics of the landslide after earthquake were studied.At the same time,the probability comprehensive discriminant analysis method and the analytic hierarchy process were used to analyze the susceptibility of landslide.[Results]The 825 co-seismic landslides occurred in the region after the earthquake,and the intensity of landslide activity reduced gradually.From 2009 to 2017,376 new landslides occurred outside of the co-seismic landslide areas.In February 2017,the number of active landslides reduced to 368,accounting for 30.6% of the total landslides.The area under curve(AUC)method was used to test the multi-period evaluation results,the accuracy was 75.6% to 81.4%,and the evaluation results were satisfactory.[Conclusion]The number of active landslides after earthquakes and the area of high sensitive zone in meizoseismal area show a decreasing trend,indicating that the landslides after earthquakes are in the process of gradual recovery,but the activity intensity of geological hazards is still far higher than that before the earthquake.
引文
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[11]蒋志林,朱静,常鸣,等.汶川地震区红椿沟泥石流形成物源量动态演化特征[J].山地学报,2014,32(1):81-88.
[12]余斌,马煜,张健楠,等.汶川地震后四川省都江堰市龙池镇群发泥石流灾害[J].山地学报,2011,29(6):738-746.
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[14]王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[15]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡敏感性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3978-3985.
[16]Conoscenti C,Maggio C D,Rotigliano E.GIS analysis to assess landslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily(Italy)[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3/4):325-339.
[2]陈明,唐川,甘伟,等.震区急陡沟道型泥石流特征及动力过程研究:以汶川瓦窑沟为例[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2018,40(2):272-278.
[3]Dai Fuchu,Xu Chong,Yao Xin,et al.Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,China[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2011,40(4):883-895.
[4]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川地震触发崩塌滑坡数量及其密度特征分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(3):1-7.
[5]唐川.汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势预测[J].山地学报,2010,28(3):341-349.
[6]齐信,唐川,铁永波,等.基于GIS技术的汶川地震诱发地质灾害危险性评价:以四川省北川县为例[J].成都理工大学学报:自然科学版,2010,37(2):160-167.
[7]吕义清,刘鸿福,李晓聪.基于趋势面分析法的地质灾害危险性评价系统[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(2):155-158.
[8]刘洋,唐川,李为乐,等.四川省都江堰市龙池地区群发性泥石流物源敏感性分析[J].灾害学,2013,28(2):107-113.
[9]唐川,丁军,梁京涛.汶川震区北川县城泥石流源地特征的遥感动态分析[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(1):1-7.
[10]常鸣,唐川,蒋志林,等.强震区都江堰市龙池镇泥石流物源的遥感动态演变[J].山地学报,2014,32(1):89-97.
[11]蒋志林,朱静,常鸣,等.汶川地震区红椿沟泥石流形成物源量动态演化特征[J].山地学报,2014,32(1):81-88.
[12]余斌,马煜,张健楠,等.汶川地震后四川省都江堰市龙池镇群发泥石流灾害[J].山地学报,2011,29(6):738-746.
[13]Chang Ming,Tang Chuan,Zhang Dandan,et al.Debris flow susceptibility assessment using aprobabilistic approach:A case study in the Longchi area,Sichuan Province,China[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(4):1001-1014.
[14]王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[15]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡敏感性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3978-3985.
[16]Conoscenti C,Maggio C D,Rotigliano E.GIS analysis to assess landslide susceptibility in a fluvial basin of NW Sicily(Italy)[J].Geomorphology,2008,94(3/4):325-339.