大国竞争战略下特朗普政府对台政策及美台关系走势
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摘要
当前美国特朗普政府对外战略重心回归"大国政治",在对华政策方面以冷战思维为导向,将中国定位为"战略竞争对手",对华战略从奥巴马时期的战略"接触+遏制"转向战略"竞争+遏制",并在此战略布局下,重视台湾对华的"战略遏制"和"战略平衡"作用,在美国立法和行政亲台保守派的推动下,不断提升美台之间的军事、政治关系,试图一方面通过重塑台海均势、利用台湾问题对中国进行战略牵制,另一方面作为与中国政府讨价还价的政治筹码,而这将使中美关系的政治基础因台湾问题遭受冲击,中美关系的不稳定性和台湾问题的复杂性增加。
At present, the US Trump administration's foreign strategic focus has back to "Great Power Politics". Guided by the thinking of the cold war, the Trump administration defined China as a "strategic competitor," and shifted its strategy toward China from Obama's strategic "contact+containment" to the strategic "competitive + deterrence". Under The strategic layout,Trump attaches great importance to Taiwan's"strategic containment" and "strategic balance" in China, and continues to promote the US-Taiwan relationship under the impetus of the US legislative and administrative pro-taiwan conservatives. On one hand,by reshaping the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, the US administration use the Taiwan issue to contain China; on the other hand, it also acts as a bargaining political bargaining chip with China, which will shake the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations.The instability of Sino-U.S. relations and the complexity of the Taiwan issue have increased act in response.
At present, the US Trump administration's foreign strategic focus has back to "Great Power Politics". Guided by the thinking of the cold war, the Trump administration defined China as a "strategic competitor," and shifted its strategy toward China from Obama's strategic "contact+containment" to the strategic "competitive + deterrence". Under The strategic layout,Trump attaches great importance to Taiwan's"strategic containment" and "strategic balance" in China, and continues to promote the US-Taiwan relationship under the impetus of the US legislative and administrative pro-taiwan conservatives. On one hand,by reshaping the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, the US administration use the Taiwan issue to contain China; on the other hand, it also acts as a bargaining political bargaining chip with China, which will shake the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations.The instability of Sino-U.S. relations and the complexity of the Taiwan issue have increased act in response.
引文
[1]何达薷:《新保守主义视角下特朗普政府外交政策特征与中美关系》,《学术探索》,2018年第10期,第29页,第30页。
[2][美]沈大伟主编,丁超、黄富慧、洪漫译:《纠缠的大国:中美关系的未来》,北京:新华出版社,2015年,第36-37页。
[3][美]兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基,《战略远见:美国与全球权力危机》,北京:新华出版社,2012年,第3页。
[4]余东晖:中国弯道超车美国忧心忡忡,http://www.crntt.com/doc/1048/8/8/1/104888138_4.html?coluid=93&kindid=7950&docid=104888138&mdate=1123003319,访问日期:2017-11-23。
[5]Morning Keynote:“Implications of China's Growing Power for the U.S.”,https://www.csis.org/analysis/morningkeynote-implications-chinas-growing-power-us,访问日期:2018-12-20。
[6]Ian Bremmer:“How China’s Economy Is Poised to Win the Future”,http://time.com/5006971/how-chinas-economyis-poised-to-win-the-future,访问日期:2018-03-23。
[7]U.S. Department of Defense,“Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America”,Nov.2018,p.1.,https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf,访问日期:2018-1-21。
[8]The White House,“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America”, Dec. 2017,p.3,p.47.https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf,访问日期:2017-12-19。
[9][美]尼古拉斯·斯皮克曼著,俞海杰译:《和平地理学:边缘地带的战略》,上海人民出版社,2016年版,第58页。
[10]肖元恺著:《百年之结:美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》,北京:人民出版社,2001年版,第4-5页。
[11]董操:《“台湾独立”与国家利益的冲突——兼析台湾问题与中美关系》,《台湾研究》,1994年第1期,第35页。
[12]陈效卫主编:《合作与冲突:战后美国军事联盟的系统考察》,北京:军事科学出版社,2001年版,第116页。
[13]何达薷:《新保守主义视角下特朗普政府外交政策特征与中美关系》,《学术探索》,2018年第10期,第29页,第30页。
[14]John Bolton,“The US Can Play‘Taiwan Card’”,https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-can-play-a-taiwancard-1453053872,访问日期:2018-03-15。
[15]The White House,“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America”, Dec. 2017,p.3,p.47.
[16]梁毅鹏:《美国新保守主义之台海政策思维》,硕士学位论文,台湾大学政治学系,2009年,第62页。
[17][美]加里·J·斯密特主编,韩凝、黄娟译:《中国的崛起:美国未来的竞争与挑战》,北京:新华出版社,2016年,第132-133页。
[18]信强:《美国特朗普政府对台政策走向浅析》,《美国问题研究》,2017年第2期,第170页。
[19]陶文钊:《奥巴马政府时期的对台湾政策》,《和平与发展》,2017年第4期,第9页。
[2][美]沈大伟主编,丁超、黄富慧、洪漫译:《纠缠的大国:中美关系的未来》,北京:新华出版社,2015年,第36-37页。
[3][美]兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基,《战略远见:美国与全球权力危机》,北京:新华出版社,2012年,第3页。
[4]余东晖:中国弯道超车美国忧心忡忡,http://www.crntt.com/doc/1048/8/8/1/104888138_4.html?coluid=93&kindid=7950&docid=104888138&mdate=1123003319,访问日期:2017-11-23。
[5]Morning Keynote:“Implications of China's Growing Power for the U.S.”,https://www.csis.org/analysis/morningkeynote-implications-chinas-growing-power-us,访问日期:2018-12-20。
[6]Ian Bremmer:“How China’s Economy Is Poised to Win the Future”,http://time.com/5006971/how-chinas-economyis-poised-to-win-the-future,访问日期:2018-03-23。
[7]U.S. Department of Defense,“Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America”,Nov.2018,p.1.,https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf,访问日期:2018-1-21。
[8]The White House,“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America”, Dec. 2017,p.3,p.47.https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf,访问日期:2017-12-19。
[9][美]尼古拉斯·斯皮克曼著,俞海杰译:《和平地理学:边缘地带的战略》,上海人民出版社,2016年版,第58页。
[10]肖元恺著:《百年之结:美国与中国台湾地区关系的历史透视》,北京:人民出版社,2001年版,第4-5页。
[11]董操:《“台湾独立”与国家利益的冲突——兼析台湾问题与中美关系》,《台湾研究》,1994年第1期,第35页。
[12]陈效卫主编:《合作与冲突:战后美国军事联盟的系统考察》,北京:军事科学出版社,2001年版,第116页。
[13]何达薷:《新保守主义视角下特朗普政府外交政策特征与中美关系》,《学术探索》,2018年第10期,第29页,第30页。
[14]John Bolton,“The US Can Play‘Taiwan Card’”,https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-can-play-a-taiwancard-1453053872,访问日期:2018-03-15。
[15]The White House,“The National Security Strategy of the United States of America”, Dec. 2017,p.3,p.47.
[16]梁毅鹏:《美国新保守主义之台海政策思维》,硕士学位论文,台湾大学政治学系,2009年,第62页。
[17][美]加里·J·斯密特主编,韩凝、黄娟译:《中国的崛起:美国未来的竞争与挑战》,北京:新华出版社,2016年,第132-133页。
[18]信强:《美国特朗普政府对台政策走向浅析》,《美国问题研究》,2017年第2期,第170页。
[19]陶文钊:《奥巴马政府时期的对台湾政策》,《和平与发展》,2017年第4期,第9页。