西北干旱地区特色林果业扶贫效果评估——以新疆阿克苏地区为例
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摘要
根据新疆阿克苏地区485家特色林果种植贫困农户的问卷调查数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型,从农户收入状况和创收能力两方面,实证分析特色林果业的扶贫效果及其影响因素。结果表明:性别、受教育程度、家庭林果耕地面积、农户对特色林果业减贫效果的预期、政府扶持情况等因素对贫困农户收入变化具有显著影响;性别、受教育程度、农户对特色林果业减贫效果的预期等因素对贫困农户创收能力具有显著影响;农户收入和创收能力处于稳健上升状态,特色林果业的扶贫效果较好。因此,应加快健全特色林果业扶贫利益联结的机制,拓宽特色林果业扶贫的方式,增强农户受教育程度及农业技术推广能力。
⑴ Background——Because of its remoteness,the arid zone in northwest are not only high in incidence of poverty,deep in degree of poverty,but also weak in basic conditions,and difficult to get rid of poverty. Therefore,this study takes the characteristic forest and fruit industry as the representative object of industry poverty alleviation,selects Aksu Prefecture of Xinjiang as the demonstration area,evaluates on the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in this area,and puts forward some suggestions to enhance the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry.⑵ Methods——Explanatory variables representing individual characteristics and planting characteristics of poor farmers in forest and fruit cultivation are reasonably selected. According to the questionnaire data of 485 poor fruit farmers in Aksu Prefecture,this paper adopts Logistic regression model to empirically analyze the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry and its influencing factors from two aspects of farmers' income status and farmers' income generation capacity.⑶ Results——With the increase of poverty alleviation measures of forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture,farmers' income and income generation capacity are all in a steady rising state,but there is still much room for improvement. Among them: gender,the level of education,the number of households working in agriculture,family forest fruit planting area,and farmers' expectation of poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry have significant influence on the confidence level of farmers' income respectively; gender,education level,and farmers' expectation of poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry have significant influence on the confidence level of farmers' income generation capacity; partially explained variables are in the opposite direction as expected which is due to the fact that the local people have been in poor areas for a long time and the life quality of farmers is low.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Through the actual situation and statistical descriptive analysis in Aksu Prefecture,it can be concluded that the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture is better,but there are still some problems,such as the limited poverty alleviation mode of characteristic forest and fruit industry; the low education level of poor households,face engineering,formalism and so on. In order to enhance the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in the poverty-stricken areas of northwest China,it is proposed to speed up the cultivation of new peasant economic cooperation organizations, broaden the ways of poverty alleviation of characteristic forest and fruit industry, and strengthen the agricultural technology extension of characteristic forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture by combining with the actual situation in Aksu Prefecture so as to not only promote the development of local economy to help local poor households to get rid of poverty,but also provide experience for other poor areas.
⑴ Background——Because of its remoteness,the arid zone in northwest are not only high in incidence of poverty,deep in degree of poverty,but also weak in basic conditions,and difficult to get rid of poverty. Therefore,this study takes the characteristic forest and fruit industry as the representative object of industry poverty alleviation,selects Aksu Prefecture of Xinjiang as the demonstration area,evaluates on the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in this area,and puts forward some suggestions to enhance the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry.⑵ Methods——Explanatory variables representing individual characteristics and planting characteristics of poor farmers in forest and fruit cultivation are reasonably selected. According to the questionnaire data of 485 poor fruit farmers in Aksu Prefecture,this paper adopts Logistic regression model to empirically analyze the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry and its influencing factors from two aspects of farmers' income status and farmers' income generation capacity.⑶ Results——With the increase of poverty alleviation measures of forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture,farmers' income and income generation capacity are all in a steady rising state,but there is still much room for improvement. Among them: gender,the level of education,the number of households working in agriculture,family forest fruit planting area,and farmers' expectation of poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry have significant influence on the confidence level of farmers' income respectively; gender,education level,and farmers' expectation of poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry have significant influence on the confidence level of farmers' income generation capacity; partially explained variables are in the opposite direction as expected which is due to the fact that the local people have been in poor areas for a long time and the life quality of farmers is low.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Through the actual situation and statistical descriptive analysis in Aksu Prefecture,it can be concluded that the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture is better,but there are still some problems,such as the limited poverty alleviation mode of characteristic forest and fruit industry; the low education level of poor households,face engineering,formalism and so on. In order to enhance the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in the poverty-stricken areas of northwest China,it is proposed to speed up the cultivation of new peasant economic cooperation organizations, broaden the ways of poverty alleviation of characteristic forest and fruit industry, and strengthen the agricultural technology extension of characteristic forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture by combining with the actual situation in Aksu Prefecture so as to not only promote the development of local economy to help local poor households to get rid of poverty,but also provide experience for other poor areas.
引文
[1]刘洋.西安产业扶贫路径优化研究[J].合作经济与科技,2018(20):170-172.
[2]李辉婕,胡侦,肖萍等.政府主导下的农村地区产业扶贫实践与路径优化:基于江西省N村产业扶贫现状的考察[J].农林经济管理学报,2018,17(2):235-244.
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[4]方硕,程道品,段文军,等.基于熵权法的河池县域旅游扶贫产业竞争力研究[J].旅游研究,2015,7(2):40-44.
[5]杨照,张正尧.产业精准扶贫评价体系构建及研究:基于14个贫困县的调查[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(3):179-184.
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[7]赵阳,谢昌凡,杨思宇.农户对农业产业扶贫的参与状况及其影响因素分析:来自四省(市)990个农户样本的证据[J].中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2018,12(6):74-80.
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[9]王超,罗兰.贵州少数民族地区特色旅游产业精准扶贫路径研究[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018,36(1):8-18.
[10]奉钦亮,覃凡丁,廖宏俊,等.广西林业产业扶贫工作质量影响因素实证研究[J].林业经济,2018,40(6):26-32,74.
[11]龚贤,罗仁杰.精准扶贫视角下西部地区农业绿色发展能力评价[J].生态经济,2018,34(8):128-132.
[12]韩磊,乔花芳,谢双玉,等.恩施州旅游扶贫村居民的旅游影响感知差异[J].资源科学,2019(2):381-393.
[13]林明水,林金煌,程煜,等.省域乡村旅游扶贫重点村生态脆弱性评价:以福建省为例[J].生态学报,2018,38(19):7093-7101.
[14]王立剑,叶小刚,陈杰.精准识别视角下产业扶贫效果评估[J].中国人口?资源与环境,2018,28(1):113-123.
[15]张正尧,吕永辉,杨照.全国农业产业扶贫成效评价及对策分析[J].湖北农业科学,2018,57(17):126-129.
[16]杨龙,李宝仪,赵阳,等.农业产业扶贫的多维贫困瞄准研究[J].中国人口?资源与环境,2019,29(2):134-144.
[17] FUKUNISHI T,YAMAGATA T. Introduction:The Dynamism of the Garment Industry in Low-income Countries[M]. London:Palgrave Macmillan,2014:1-37.
[18]郑丽金.关于阿克苏地区发展特色林果业的思考[J].中国管理信息化,2016,19(4):152-153.
[19]王介勇,陈玉福,严茂超.我国精准扶贫政策及其创新路径研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):289-295.
[20]王森,李亚利.新疆特色林果业现状、问题及对策建议[J].中国农业信息,2016(14):21-24.
[21]杨露.平泉市食用菌产业扶贫效果评价研究[D].保定:河北农业大学,2018:16-23.
[22]邹蕾,叶华平.基于二元Logistic模型的国内上市企业信用评级展望的影响因素研究[J].特区经济,2007(5):128-129.
[23]郭建宇.农业产业化扶贫效果分析:以山西省为对象[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2010,10(4):20-26.
[2]李辉婕,胡侦,肖萍等.政府主导下的农村地区产业扶贫实践与路径优化:基于江西省N村产业扶贫现状的考察[J].农林经济管理学报,2018,17(2):235-244.
[3]梁陞.基于AHP-熵权的三穗县M乡特色扶贫产业减贫效应评价[J].黔南民族师范学院学报,2018,38(1):87-93.
[4]方硕,程道品,段文军,等.基于熵权法的河池县域旅游扶贫产业竞争力研究[J].旅游研究,2015,7(2):40-44.
[5]杨照,张正尧.产业精准扶贫评价体系构建及研究:基于14个贫困县的调查[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(3):179-184.
[6]胡晗,司亚飞,王立剑.产业扶贫政策对贫困户生计策略和收入的影响:来自陕西省的经验证据[J].中国农村经济,2018(1):78-89.
[7]赵阳,谢昌凡,杨思宇.农户对农业产业扶贫的参与状况及其影响因素分析:来自四省(市)990个农户样本的证据[J].中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2018,12(6):74-80.
[8]董雪梅,张艳荣.绩效提升视域下产业扶贫瓶颈与路径优化分析:来自甘肃省漳县沙棘产业的调查[J].小城镇建设,2018(3):56-61.
[9]王超,罗兰.贵州少数民族地区特色旅游产业精准扶贫路径研究[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018,36(1):8-18.
[10]奉钦亮,覃凡丁,廖宏俊,等.广西林业产业扶贫工作质量影响因素实证研究[J].林业经济,2018,40(6):26-32,74.
[11]龚贤,罗仁杰.精准扶贫视角下西部地区农业绿色发展能力评价[J].生态经济,2018,34(8):128-132.
[12]韩磊,乔花芳,谢双玉,等.恩施州旅游扶贫村居民的旅游影响感知差异[J].资源科学,2019(2):381-393.
[13]林明水,林金煌,程煜,等.省域乡村旅游扶贫重点村生态脆弱性评价:以福建省为例[J].生态学报,2018,38(19):7093-7101.
[14]王立剑,叶小刚,陈杰.精准识别视角下产业扶贫效果评估[J].中国人口?资源与环境,2018,28(1):113-123.
[15]张正尧,吕永辉,杨照.全国农业产业扶贫成效评价及对策分析[J].湖北农业科学,2018,57(17):126-129.
[16]杨龙,李宝仪,赵阳,等.农业产业扶贫的多维贫困瞄准研究[J].中国人口?资源与环境,2019,29(2):134-144.
[17] FUKUNISHI T,YAMAGATA T. Introduction:The Dynamism of the Garment Industry in Low-income Countries[M]. London:Palgrave Macmillan,2014:1-37.
[18]郑丽金.关于阿克苏地区发展特色林果业的思考[J].中国管理信息化,2016,19(4):152-153.
[19]王介勇,陈玉福,严茂超.我国精准扶贫政策及其创新路径研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):289-295.
[20]王森,李亚利.新疆特色林果业现状、问题及对策建议[J].中国农业信息,2016(14):21-24.
[21]杨露.平泉市食用菌产业扶贫效果评价研究[D].保定:河北农业大学,2018:16-23.
[22]邹蕾,叶华平.基于二元Logistic模型的国内上市企业信用评级展望的影响因素研究[J].特区经济,2007(5):128-129.
[23]郭建宇.农业产业化扶贫效果分析:以山西省为对象[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2010,10(4):20-26.