2017年7月广西柳州一次特大暴雨过程成因分析
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摘要
利用常规观测资料、区域自动站资料、NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1°再分析资料和雷达资料,对柳州2017年7月1—2日的特大暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明,此次强降雨发生在西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压稳定维持的环流背景下,由高空槽、低涡切变、中低空急流和地面冷空气共同影响产生。前期降水主要在柳州北部,为暖区暴雨,降水"列车"效应和地形抬升作用显著;后期降水强度更强,主要在柳州南部,为锋面降水,对流性降水明显。低空急流尤其是超低空急流为暴雨提供了充足的水汽。在南压高压东侧的强烈"抽吸"作用下水汽上升运动强烈发展,为暴雨提供了有利的动力条件。暴雨发生前不稳定能量累积和中层干冷空气侵入造成的深厚不稳定层结触发了明显的短时强降水。
Based on conventional meteorological data, regional automatic station data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1° ×1° reanalysis data and Doppler radar data,diagnostic analysis of the server heavy rainfall occurred in Liuzhou during 1-2 July 2017 was discussed. The results showed that the heavy rainfall occurred under the circulation background that Western Pacific Subtropical high and South Asia high remained stable. The upper trough, vortex shear line, the jet at the middle-lower level and surface cold air gave rise to the excessive rainfall.The prior period rain was warm-sector rainfall, locating primarily in the north of Liuzhou, the remarkable rain "train"effect and topographic lifting played an important part in it. The later period rainfall was frontal precipitation, mainly situating in the south of Liuzhou, which was more fierce than the former. Convective precipitation was evident in later period. The low-level jet produced plentiful vapor for the formation and continuation of rain gush, especially the supply of the ultra-low-level jet. Severe ascending air developed strongly under the influence of the "pumping" action in the east of South Asia high, which offered favorable dynamic conditions for the heavy rainfall. The accumulation of atmosphere instability energy before the storm and the deep instability stratification caused by the invasion of the dry cold air triggered obvious short-time strong rainfall.
Based on conventional meteorological data, regional automatic station data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1° ×1° reanalysis data and Doppler radar data,diagnostic analysis of the server heavy rainfall occurred in Liuzhou during 1-2 July 2017 was discussed. The results showed that the heavy rainfall occurred under the circulation background that Western Pacific Subtropical high and South Asia high remained stable. The upper trough, vortex shear line, the jet at the middle-lower level and surface cold air gave rise to the excessive rainfall.The prior period rain was warm-sector rainfall, locating primarily in the north of Liuzhou, the remarkable rain "train"effect and topographic lifting played an important part in it. The later period rainfall was frontal precipitation, mainly situating in the south of Liuzhou, which was more fierce than the former. Convective precipitation was evident in later period. The low-level jet produced plentiful vapor for the formation and continuation of rain gush, especially the supply of the ultra-low-level jet. Severe ascending air developed strongly under the influence of the "pumping" action in the east of South Asia high, which offered favorable dynamic conditions for the heavy rainfall. The accumulation of atmosphere instability energy before the storm and the deep instability stratification caused by the invasion of the dry cold air triggered obvious short-time strong rainfall.
引文
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[4]覃卫坚,李耀先,廖雪萍,等.大气低频振荡对广西持续性区域性暴雨的可能影响[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(3):1-7.
[5]高亭亭,梁卫,罗聪,等.广州前汛期暴雨气候特征分析[J].广东气象,2012,2(34):33-36.
[6]李亚琴,苏小玲,蓝柳茹,等.副高控制下广西五次暴雨过程对比分析[J].广东气象,2018,40(4):35-38.
[7]李亚琴,赖锡柳,苏小玲,等.西太平洋副高影响下柳州暴雨统计特征及环流分型研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(1):48-56.
[8]覃丽,寿绍文,夏冠聪,等.华南暖区一次暴雨中尺度系统的数值模拟[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):906-914.
[9]赵玉春,李泽椿,肖子牛.华南锋面与暖区暴雨个例对比分析[J].气象科技,2008,36(1):47-54.
[10]司东,温敏,徐海明,等.2005年6月华南暴雨期间西太平洋副高西伸过程分析[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(2):170-175.
[11]李博,刘黎平,赵思雄,等.局地低矮地形对华南暴雨影响的数值试验[J].高原气象,2013,32(6):1638-1650.
[12]覃卫坚,李耀先,覃志年.广西暴雨的区域性和连续性研究[J].气象研究与应用,2012,33(4):1-4.
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[14]王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.全球变暖的停滞还能持续多久?[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(6):465-468.
[15]伍红雨,杜尧东,秦鹏.华南暴雨的气候特征及变化[J].气象,2011,37(10):1262-1269.