天水市36年来气候变化的时空特征分析
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摘要
利用天水市两区五县36a的气象数据,采用累积距平法、Morlet小波分析方法、协同克里金插值法分析了天水市36a间气候的时空变化特征。结果表明:天水市气候向暖干化方向发展,年均温上升,降水量和相对湿度呈下降趋势,季节变化与年平均变化趋于一致;天水市气候表现出明显的周期性变化特征,年平均气温在36a尺度内存在14a的显著主周期,年平均降水量存在15a的显著主周期,年平均日照时数存在16a的显著主周期,年平均相对湿度存在8a的显著主周期;在空间特征上,气温与日照时数的空间差异性较大,没有明显的地域性特征,这可能与多种因素的综合影响有关,而降水量与相对湿度的空间变化地域性很明显,总体表现为由东向西递减的趋势。
Using the 36-year meteorological data of two districts and five counties in Tianshui city, the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes of climate in the 36 years of Tianshui were analyzed in detail using the method of cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis method and Kriging interpolation method.. The results show that: The climate of Tianshui City develops in the direction of warming and drying, and the average annual temperature rises. The precipitation and relative humidity show a downward trend.The Seasonal changes tend to be consistent with annual average changes. Tianshui City's climate shows obvious cyclical changes. The annual mean air temperature has a significant main cycle of 14 years on the 36-year scale,the annual average precipitation has a significant main cycle of 15 years, and the average annual sunshine hours have significant 16 years. In the main cycle, the average annual relative humidity has a significant main cycle of 8 years. In terms of spatial characteristics, the spatial difference between temperature and sunshine hours is relatively large, and there is no obvious regional feature. This may be related to the comprehensive influence of various factors, and the spatial variation of precipitation and relative humidity is very regional. Obviously, the overall performance is decreasing from east to west.
Using the 36-year meteorological data of two districts and five counties in Tianshui city, the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes of climate in the 36 years of Tianshui were analyzed in detail using the method of cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis method and Kriging interpolation method.. The results show that: The climate of Tianshui City develops in the direction of warming and drying, and the average annual temperature rises. The precipitation and relative humidity show a downward trend.The Seasonal changes tend to be consistent with annual average changes. Tianshui City's climate shows obvious cyclical changes. The annual mean air temperature has a significant main cycle of 14 years on the 36-year scale,the annual average precipitation has a significant main cycle of 15 years, and the average annual sunshine hours have significant 16 years. In the main cycle, the average annual relative humidity has a significant main cycle of 8 years. In terms of spatial characteristics, the spatial difference between temperature and sunshine hours is relatively large, and there is no obvious regional feature. This may be related to the comprehensive influence of various factors, and the spatial variation of precipitation and relative humidity is very regional. Obviously, the overall performance is decreasing from east to west.
引文
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[17]夏库热·塔依尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的开都河径流变化周期研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):142-147.
[18]郑爱勤,王文科,段磊,等.渭河流域基流及降雨的多尺度特征和突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(6):144-148.
[19]米热古力·艾尼瓦尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的伊塞克湖水位变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):168-182.
[20]王欢,李栋梁,蒋元春.1956~2012年黄河源区流量演变的新特征及其成因[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(2):403-412.
[21]沈雪峰,艾成.新疆玛纳斯河径流时间变化特征及其趋势析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):14.
[22]朱颖洁.Kriging插值法在梧州季降雨空间分析中的应用[J].广西水利水电,2016,(2):1-2.
[23]吴丽,陈薇,马杰,汪鸿滨.1961~2010天水市光、温、水资源变化特征及其与粮食产量的关系[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(17):247-248.
[24]杨凤海.基于的黑龙江省气候资源时空变异研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2010:99-100.
[2]秦大河,THOMASSTOCKER.259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
[3]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961~2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[4]赵传成,王雁,丁永建,等.西北地区近50年气温及降水的时空变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):385-390.
[5]马杰.天水地区气候变化及对林果生长的影响[D].兰州:兰州大学,2011:24.
[6]张立伟,宋春英,延军平.秦岭南北年极端气温的时空变化趋势研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(8):1007-1011.
[7]任永建,陈正洪,肖莺,等.武汉区域百年地表气温变化趋势研究[J].地理科学,2010,30(2):278-282.
[8]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300a降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011.
[9]姚小英,蒲金勇,杨小利.近50年来天水市温度极值及相关天气现象对气候变化的响应[J].安徽农业科学,2009,37(26):1-2.
[10]蒲金勇,李晓薇,李蓉.天水市1961~2010年积温变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境.2013,27(5):1-2.
[11]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[12]马建勇,潘婕,姜江,等.北疆地区1955~2009年气温、降水变化特征的时间序列分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):18-24.
[13]康丽娟,巴特尔·巴克,罗那那,等.1961~2013年新疆气温和降水的时空变化特征分析[J].新疆农业科学,2018,55(1):123-133.
[14]丁贞玉,马金珠,张宝军,等.近50年来石羊河流域气候变化趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2007,24(6):779-784.
[15]陈仁升,康尔泗,张济世.小波变换在河西地区水文和气候周期变化分析中的应用[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(3):339-345.
[16]古丽孜巴·艾尼瓦尔,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,米热古丽·艾尼瓦尔,等.基于小波分析1956~2010年焉耆盆地清水河径流量季节变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):210-214,220.
[17]夏库热·塔依尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的开都河径流变化周期研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):142-147.
[18]郑爱勤,王文科,段磊,等.渭河流域基流及降雨的多尺度特征和突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(6):144-148.
[19]米热古力·艾尼瓦尔,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等.基于小波分析的伊塞克湖水位变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):168-182.
[20]王欢,李栋梁,蒋元春.1956~2012年黄河源区流量演变的新特征及其成因[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(2):403-412.
[21]沈雪峰,艾成.新疆玛纳斯河径流时间变化特征及其趋势析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):14.
[22]朱颖洁.Kriging插值法在梧州季降雨空间分析中的应用[J].广西水利水电,2016,(2):1-2.
[23]吴丽,陈薇,马杰,汪鸿滨.1961~2010天水市光、温、水资源变化特征及其与粮食产量的关系[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(17):247-248.
[24]杨凤海.基于的黑龙江省气候资源时空变异研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2010:99-100.