利用人工神经网络模型预测西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数
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摘要
通过对60年(1950～2009年)北半球夏、秋季(6～10月)热带气旋(TC)频数与春季(3～5月)大尺度环境变量的相关分析,挑选出8个相关性较高的前期预报因子建立人工神经网络(ANN)模型,对2010～2017年8年夏、秋季TC频数进行回报,并将回报结果与传统多元线性回归(MLR)方法所得结果进行对比分析。结果表明,ANN模型对60年历史数据的拟合精度高,相关系数高达0.99,平均绝对误差低至0.77。在8年回报中,ANN模型相关系数为0.80,平均绝对误差为1.97;而MLR模型相关系数仅为0.46,平均绝对误差为3.30。ANN模型在历史数据拟合和回报中的表现都明显优于MLR模型,未来可考虑应用于实际的业务预测中。
In this study, artificial neural network(ANN) model and the multiple linear regression(MLR) model are used to predict the numbers of tropical cyclones(TCs) forming over the western North Pacific from June to October. The correlations between the frequency of TCs and the large-scale environmental variables during boreal spring(MarchMay) were analyzed for a period of approximately six decades 1950-2009; subsequently eight highly correlated predictors were selected to predict the TC frequency from 2010 to 2017. A comparison between ANN and MLR models shows that ANN model exhibits better performance as compared to MLR model. Specifically, the correlation coefficient(R) reached 0.99 and the mean absolute error(MAE) was 0.77 during the historical data simulation. During the prediction period, R values of ANN and MLR models were 0.80 and 0.46, respectively. MAE values of ANN and MLR models were1.97 and 3.30, respectively, which further confirms that ANN model significantly outperforms MLR model in both simulation and prediction and has potential for application in operational forecast.
In this study, artificial neural network(ANN) model and the multiple linear regression(MLR) model are used to predict the numbers of tropical cyclones(TCs) forming over the western North Pacific from June to October. The correlations between the frequency of TCs and the large-scale environmental variables during boreal spring(MarchMay) were analyzed for a period of approximately six decades 1950-2009; subsequently eight highly correlated predictors were selected to predict the TC frequency from 2010 to 2017. A comparison between ANN and MLR models shows that ANN model exhibits better performance as compared to MLR model. Specifically, the correlation coefficient(R) reached 0.99 and the mean absolute error(MAE) was 0.77 during the historical data simulation. During the prediction period, R values of ANN and MLR models were 0.80 and 0.46, respectively. MAE values of ANN and MLR models were1.97 and 3.30, respectively, which further confirms that ANN model significantly outperforms MLR model in both simulation and prediction and has potential for application in operational forecast.
引文
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Chan J C L.1985.Tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific in relation to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,113(4):599-606.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2
Chan J C L.1995.Tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,123(8):2567-2571.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2567:Tcaitw>2.0.Co;2
Chan J C L.2000.Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Ni?o and La Ni?a Events[J].J.Climate,13(16):2960-2972.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2
Chan J C L,Shi J E,Lam C M.1998.Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea[J].Wea.Forecasting,13(4):997-1004.doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0997:SFOTCA>2.0.CO;2
Chan J C L,Shi J E,Liu K S.2001.Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Wea.Forecasting,16(4):491-498.doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0491:IITSFO>2.0.CO;2
陈光华,黄荣辉.2006.西北太平洋暖池热状态对热带气旋活动的影响[J].热带气象学报,22(6):527-532.Chen Guanghua,Huang Ronghui.2006.The effect of warm pool thermal states on tropical cyclone in West Northwest Pacific[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),22(6):527-532.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2006.06.002
Chu P S,Zhao X.2007.A bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific[J].J.Climate,20(15):4002-4013.doi:10.1175/jcli4214.1
Fan K.2007.New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,50(9):1417-1423.doi:10.1007/s11430-007-0105-x
Fan K.2009.Seasonal forecast model for the number of tropical cyclones to make landfall in China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2(5):251-254.doi:10.1080/16742834.2009.11446811
Fan K,Wang H J.2009.A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the Western North Pacific[J].Wea.Forecasting,24(4):974-986.doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222194.1
Goh Z C A,Chan J C L.2010.An improved statistical scheme for the prediction of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China[J].Wea.Forecasting,25(2):587-593.doi:10.1175/2009waf2222305.1
Gray W M.1984a.Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency.Part I:El Ni?o and 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influences[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,112(9):1649-1668.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2
Gray W M.1984b.Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency.Part II:Forecasting its variability[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,112(9):1669-1683.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1669:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2
何慧,欧艺,李艳兰.2009.影响广西的热带气旋年频数的BP神经网络预测模型[J].热带气象学报,25(4):407-412.He Hui,Ou Yi,Li Yanlan.2009.A BP neural network prediction model for the annual frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Guangxi[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),25(4):407-412.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2009.04.004
何敏,龚振淞,徐明,等.2007.高低层纬向风异常与西北太平洋热带气旋生成年频数关系的研究[J].热带气象学报,23(3):277-283.He Ming,Gong Zhensong,Xu Min,et al.2007.Relationships between zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),23(3):277-283.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2007.03.010
黄小刚,费建芳,陈佩燕.2009.利用神经网络方法建立热带气旋强度预报模型[J].应用气象学报,20(6):699-705.Huang Xiaogang,Fei Jianfang,Chen Peiyan.2009.A neural network approach to predict tropical cyclone intensity[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),20(6):699-705.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2009.06.007
Kim H M,Webster P J.2010.Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,37(21):L21705.doi:10.1029/2010gl044792
Kim H S,Ho C H,Kim J H,et al.2012.Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific[J].J.Climate,25(13):4660-4678.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00236.1
Kwon H J,Lee W J,Won S H,et al.2007.Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,34(24):L24805.doi:10.1029/2007GL032308
李真真,吴立广,刘青元.2016.近20a影响我国台风活动变化趋势[J].气象科学,36(6):752-759.Li Zhenzhen,Wu Liguang,Liu Qingyuan.2016.Variation trend of typhoon activity influencing China during the past 20 years[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),36(6):752-759.doi:10.3969/2015jms.0089
Nath S,Kotal S D,Kundu P K.2015.Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using the neural network model[J].Atmósfera,28(4):271-281.doi:10.20937/atm.2015.28.04.06
Nath S,Kotal S D,Kundu P K.2016.Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using three artificial neural networks[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,128(6):751-762.doi:10.1007/s00703-016-0446-0
Nicholls N.1979.A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,107(9):1221-1224.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<1221:APMFPS>2.0.CO;2
Nicholls N.1985.Predictability of interannual variations of Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,113(7):1144-1149.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1144:POIVOA>2.0.CO;2
苏志重,余锦华,孙丞虎,等.2010.IPRC区域气候模式对西北太平洋热带气旋潜在预测能力的初步检验[J].热带气象学报,26(2):165-173.Su Zhizhong,Yu Jinhua,Sun Chenghu,et al.2010.The initial evaluation of tropical cyclone potential predictability in the northwestern Pacific using the IPRC regional climate model[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),26(2):165-173.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2010.02.005
王会军,孙建奇,范可.2007.北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,37(7):966-973.Wang Huijun,Sun Jianqi,Fan Ke.2007.Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,50(9):1409-1416.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7240.2007.07.013
Willmott C J.1982.Some comments on the evaluation of model performance[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,63(11):1309-1369.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1982)063<1309:SCOTEO>2.0.CO;2
尹宜舟,罗勇,Gemmer M,等.2010.基于BP神经网络技术的西北太平洋热带气旋年频数预测[J].热带气象学报,26(5):614-619.Yin Yizhou,Luo Yong,Gemmer M,et al.2010.Forecast method study on yearly tropical cyclone frequency in Northwest Pacific based on the BP neural network technique[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),26(5):614-619.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2010.05.014
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q.2016.CFSv2-Based statistical prediction for seasonal accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)over the Western North Pacific[J].J.Climate,29(2):525-541.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0059.1
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q,Wen M.2013.The SST gradient between the Southwestern Pacific and the Western Pacific warm pool:A new factor controlling the northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency[J].J.Climate,26(7):2408-2415.doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00798.1
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q,Wu C C.2011.Impact of SSTA in the East Indian Ocean on the frequency of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones:A regional atmospheric model study[J].J.Climate,24(23):6227-6242.doi:10.1175/jcli-d-10-05014.1
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q,Ying M.2012.Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific:A review[J].Tropical Cyclone Research and Review,1(3):307-324.doi:10.6057/2012TCRR03.07
张娟,周永华,黄宝霞,等.2016.人工神经网络在台风风暴潮模拟中的解释应用[J].海洋预报,33(2):60-65.Zhang Juan,Zhou Yonghua,Huang Baoxia,et al.2016.Interpretation of numerical storm surge model results using the artificial neural network[J].Marine Forecasts(in Chinese),33(2):60-65.doi:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2016.02.009
Bengio Y,Delalleau O.2011.On the expressive power of deep architectures[M]//Kivinen J,Szepesvári C,Ukkonen E,et al.Algorithmic Learning Theory.Berlin:Springer-Verlag.doi:10.1007/978-3-642-24412-4_3
Chan J C L.1985.Tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific in relation to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,113(4):599-606.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2
Chan J C L.1995.Tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,123(8):2567-2571.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2567:Tcaitw>2.0.Co;2
Chan J C L.2000.Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Ni?o and La Ni?a Events[J].J.Climate,13(16):2960-2972.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2
Chan J C L,Shi J E,Lam C M.1998.Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea[J].Wea.Forecasting,13(4):997-1004.doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0997:SFOTCA>2.0.CO;2
Chan J C L,Shi J E,Liu K S.2001.Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Wea.Forecasting,16(4):491-498.doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0491:IITSFO>2.0.CO;2
陈光华,黄荣辉.2006.西北太平洋暖池热状态对热带气旋活动的影响[J].热带气象学报,22(6):527-532.Chen Guanghua,Huang Ronghui.2006.The effect of warm pool thermal states on tropical cyclone in West Northwest Pacific[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),22(6):527-532.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2006.06.002
Chu P S,Zhao X.2007.A bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific[J].J.Climate,20(15):4002-4013.doi:10.1175/jcli4214.1
Fan K.2007.New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,50(9):1417-1423.doi:10.1007/s11430-007-0105-x
Fan K.2009.Seasonal forecast model for the number of tropical cyclones to make landfall in China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2(5):251-254.doi:10.1080/16742834.2009.11446811
Fan K,Wang H J.2009.A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the Western North Pacific[J].Wea.Forecasting,24(4):974-986.doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222194.1
Goh Z C A,Chan J C L.2010.An improved statistical scheme for the prediction of tropical cyclones making landfall in South China[J].Wea.Forecasting,25(2):587-593.doi:10.1175/2009waf2222305.1
Gray W M.1984a.Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency.Part I:El Ni?o and 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influences[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,112(9):1649-1668.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2
Gray W M.1984b.Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency.Part II:Forecasting its variability[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,112(9):1669-1683.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1669:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2
何慧,欧艺,李艳兰.2009.影响广西的热带气旋年频数的BP神经网络预测模型[J].热带气象学报,25(4):407-412.He Hui,Ou Yi,Li Yanlan.2009.A BP neural network prediction model for the annual frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Guangxi[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),25(4):407-412.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2009.04.004
何敏,龚振淞,徐明,等.2007.高低层纬向风异常与西北太平洋热带气旋生成年频数关系的研究[J].热带气象学报,23(3):277-283.He Ming,Gong Zhensong,Xu Min,et al.2007.Relationships between zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),23(3):277-283.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2007.03.010
黄小刚,费建芳,陈佩燕.2009.利用神经网络方法建立热带气旋强度预报模型[J].应用气象学报,20(6):699-705.Huang Xiaogang,Fei Jianfang,Chen Peiyan.2009.A neural network approach to predict tropical cyclone intensity[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),20(6):699-705.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2009.06.007
Kim H M,Webster P J.2010.Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,37(21):L21705.doi:10.1029/2010gl044792
Kim H S,Ho C H,Kim J H,et al.2012.Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific[J].J.Climate,25(13):4660-4678.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00236.1
Kwon H J,Lee W J,Won S H,et al.2007.Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,34(24):L24805.doi:10.1029/2007GL032308
李真真,吴立广,刘青元.2016.近20a影响我国台风活动变化趋势[J].气象科学,36(6):752-759.Li Zhenzhen,Wu Liguang,Liu Qingyuan.2016.Variation trend of typhoon activity influencing China during the past 20 years[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),36(6):752-759.doi:10.3969/2015jms.0089
Nath S,Kotal S D,Kundu P K.2015.Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using the neural network model[J].Atmósfera,28(4):271-281.doi:10.20937/atm.2015.28.04.06
Nath S,Kotal S D,Kundu P K.2016.Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using three artificial neural networks[J].Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,128(6):751-762.doi:10.1007/s00703-016-0446-0
Nicholls N.1979.A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,107(9):1221-1224.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<1221:APMFPS>2.0.CO;2
Nicholls N.1985.Predictability of interannual variations of Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,113(7):1144-1149.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1144:POIVOA>2.0.CO;2
苏志重,余锦华,孙丞虎,等.2010.IPRC区域气候模式对西北太平洋热带气旋潜在预测能力的初步检验[J].热带气象学报,26(2):165-173.Su Zhizhong,Yu Jinhua,Sun Chenghu,et al.2010.The initial evaluation of tropical cyclone potential predictability in the northwestern Pacific using the IPRC regional climate model[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),26(2):165-173.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2010.02.005
王会军,孙建奇,范可.2007.北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,37(7):966-973.Wang Huijun,Sun Jianqi,Fan Ke.2007.Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies[J].Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,50(9):1409-1416.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-7240.2007.07.013
Willmott C J.1982.Some comments on the evaluation of model performance[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,63(11):1309-1369.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1982)063<1309:SCOTEO>2.0.CO;2
尹宜舟,罗勇,Gemmer M,等.2010.基于BP神经网络技术的西北太平洋热带气旋年频数预测[J].热带气象学报,26(5):614-619.Yin Yizhou,Luo Yong,Gemmer M,et al.2010.Forecast method study on yearly tropical cyclone frequency in Northwest Pacific based on the BP neural network technique[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),26(5):614-619.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2010.05.014
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q.2016.CFSv2-Based statistical prediction for seasonal accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)over the Western North Pacific[J].J.Climate,29(2):525-541.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0059.1
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q,Wen M.2013.The SST gradient between the Southwestern Pacific and the Western Pacific warm pool:A new factor controlling the northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency[J].J.Climate,26(7):2408-2415.doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00798.1
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q,Wu C C.2011.Impact of SSTA in the East Indian Ocean on the frequency of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones:A regional atmospheric model study[J].J.Climate,24(23):6227-6242.doi:10.1175/jcli-d-10-05014.1
Zhan R F,Wang Y Q,Ying M.2012.Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific:A review[J].Tropical Cyclone Research and Review,1(3):307-324.doi:10.6057/2012TCRR03.07
张娟,周永华,黄宝霞,等.2016.人工神经网络在台风风暴潮模拟中的解释应用[J].海洋预报,33(2):60-65.Zhang Juan,Zhou Yonghua,Huang Baoxia,et al.2016.Interpretation of numerical storm surge model results using the artificial neural network[J].Marine Forecasts(in Chinese),33(2):60-65.doi:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2016.02.009