珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害工程性适应的损益分析
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摘要
在全球增暖及海平面上升背景下,风暴潮极端事件愈加严重,修筑海防工程是沿海地区应对和适应风暴潮灾害的主要工程性措施。以珠江三角洲为研究区,基于风暴潮历史灾害数据,分析了风暴潮增水与社会经济损失的关联性;提出了定量评价工程性适应风暴潮灾害的经济损益理论关系模型;推算了未来极端事件情景下,珠江三角洲海防工程建设的适应效果。结果表明,珠江三角洲地区风暴潮灾害的灾损率与增水呈显著正相关。海防工程建设高度在1.69～11.85 m内处于收益状态,其中5.22 m时收益最大。基于2030年、2050年以及2100年海平面上升叠加风暴潮情景,将海防工程设防标准定为应对2100年20年一遇风暴潮时的收益最大,标准定为应对2100年100年一遇风暴潮时收益最小。
Sea level rise will magnify the adverse impact of storm surges on the coast, and extreme high water level will increase the risk of coastal damage. To mitigate the impacts of extreme events, building levees is chosen to be a corresponding engineering adaptation strategy to protect the infrastructure. This paper investigated the economic impacts of storm surge and sea level rise based on the historical disaster dataset in the Pearl River Delta. First, the protection level of the levees in the PRD was identified, and the relationship between economic damage and surge was discussed by analyzing the historical disaster data. Then the loss due to storm surge was calculated from the relationship between the rate of damage(direct economic loss/GDP) and surges. And the cost of heightening levees was deduced. Then a theoretical model that quantitatively evaluates the effects of building levees was established by conducting benefit-cost analysis, according to which, the benefit of heightening levees is the difference between the loss due to storm surge with no adaptation and the cost of heightening levees for protection. Finally, the model was applied to calculate the effects of heightening levees under different future scenarios. The results showed that the rate of storm surge damage was positively correlated with storm surge in the Pearl River Delta. The coastal areas will benefit from implementing levee projects with the height in the range of 1.69-11.85 m. The benefit was approaching a maximum at a height of 5.22 m, and it decreased and became negative while the height is higher than 11.85 m. Under the scenarios of 2030, 2050 and 2100, the largest benefits occurred when the levee was designed to combat a 20-year return period of storm event with sea level rise in 2100, and the smallest occurred in a 100-year return period of storm event with sea level rise in 2100. The research will provide important scientific basis for coastal areas to cope with and adapt to sea level rise and storm surge events.
Sea level rise will magnify the adverse impact of storm surges on the coast, and extreme high water level will increase the risk of coastal damage. To mitigate the impacts of extreme events, building levees is chosen to be a corresponding engineering adaptation strategy to protect the infrastructure. This paper investigated the economic impacts of storm surge and sea level rise based on the historical disaster dataset in the Pearl River Delta. First, the protection level of the levees in the PRD was identified, and the relationship between economic damage and surge was discussed by analyzing the historical disaster data. Then the loss due to storm surge was calculated from the relationship between the rate of damage(direct economic loss/GDP) and surges. And the cost of heightening levees was deduced. Then a theoretical model that quantitatively evaluates the effects of building levees was established by conducting benefit-cost analysis, according to which, the benefit of heightening levees is the difference between the loss due to storm surge with no adaptation and the cost of heightening levees for protection. Finally, the model was applied to calculate the effects of heightening levees under different future scenarios. The results showed that the rate of storm surge damage was positively correlated with storm surge in the Pearl River Delta. The coastal areas will benefit from implementing levee projects with the height in the range of 1.69-11.85 m. The benefit was approaching a maximum at a height of 5.22 m, and it decreased and became negative while the height is higher than 11.85 m. Under the scenarios of 2030, 2050 and 2100, the largest benefits occurred when the levee was designed to combat a 20-year return period of storm event with sea level rise in 2100, and the smallest occurred in a 100-year return period of storm event with sea level rise in 2100. The research will provide important scientific basis for coastal areas to cope with and adapt to sea level rise and storm surge events.
引文
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[11]康蕾,马丽,刘毅.珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测.地理学报,2015,70(9):1375-1389.[Kang Lei,Ma Li,Liu Yi.Loss evaluation of farmland caused by sea level rise and storm suge in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change.Acta Geographica Sinca,2015,70(9):1375-1389.]
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[16]Sun Z,Huang S,Nie H,et al.Risk analysis of seawall overflowed by storm surge during super typhoon.Ocean Engineering,2015,107:178-185.
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[18]张平,孔昊,王代锋,等.海平面上升叠加风暴潮对2050年中国海洋经济的影响研究.海洋环境科学,2017,36(1):129-35.[Zhang Ping,Kong Hao,Wang Daifeng,et al.The impact of sea-level rise superimposed storm surges on China's ocean economy in 2050.Marine Environmental Science,2017,36(1):129-135.]
[19]谌晓东.珠江三角洲堤防、护岸设计中选择亲水平台高程需考虑的几个因素.广东水利水电,2005,(2):66-67.[Chen Xiaodong.Several factors to be considered in the design of embankment in the Pearl River Delta.Guang Dong Water Resources and Hydropower,2005,(2):66-67.]
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[22]张俊香,卓莉,刘旭拢.广东省台风暴潮灾害社会经济系统脆弱性分析:模糊数学方法.自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):116-121.[Zhang Junxiang,Zhuo Li,Liu Xulong.A fuzzy mathematical for socio-economic vulnerability analysis of typhoon storm surge in Guangdong province.Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(1):116-121.]
[23]魏晓宇,刘雪峰.闸坡站风暴潮增水与热带气旋登陆点及路径的关系.台湾海峡,2010,29(1):122-7.[Wei Xiaoyu,Liu Xuefeng.Relation between storm surge and elements of landing location and path of tropical cyclone at Zhapo station.Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait,2010,29(1):122-127.]
[24]甘雨鸣,唐永明,刘美南.珠江口台风暴潮的数值计算.中山大学学报:自然科学版,1991,30(4):1-8.[Gan Yuming,Tang Yongming,Liu Meinan.Numerical simulation of the typhoon surge in Pearl River Estuary.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,1991,30(4):1-8.]
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