基于空间计量模型的云南农村贫困格局及其影响因素诊断
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摘要
农村减贫一直是政府和学术界关注的焦点。为客观揭示区域农村贫困影响因素,促进区域性宏观减贫政策的有效制定与实施,进一步提高减贫成效。该文以农村贫困典型区域的云南省为研究对象,结合区域贫困空间关联性,运用空间计量经济模型分析方法与GIS空间分析技术,分析探讨了全省129个县(区、市)2010-2015年间县域农村贫困格局、主要影响因素及空间影响效应,并分区域提出了减贫政策建议。结果表明:1)云南省县域农村贫困空间上表现出"中心-外围-边角"的低、中、高贫困分布格局,贫困程度较高的区域主要集中在滇西北、滇东北、滇西南及滇南地区,主要涉及金沙江、澜沧江、怒江及红河等流域地带。2)空间滞后模型(spatial lag model, SLM)回归结果显示,地形起伏度、到所在市政府的交通距离、农村15岁及以上文盲率、每千人医疗机构床位数、农村65岁及以上老年人比例5个因子是造成近年来云南省县域农村贫困的显著影响因素,5个因子的回归系数分别为0.005、0.044、0.380、-1.257和-2.132。3)农村贫困存在区域差异性,云南省区域扶贫开发需针对区域贫困程度和主要致贫因素精准施策,并强化相邻县域之间合力攻坚,巩固减贫成效。该文重点关注的空间效应是区域农村贫困研究的重要内容,可以为制定科学、合理的区域性减贫政策提供参考。
Chinese government devoted continuously to the rural poverty reduction program which was a long-term hot shot of government and academia since the Reform and Opening Up policy in 1978. Targeted poverty alleviation stratagem which aimed to fully eliminating regional overall poverty in 2020 was put into practice since 2013 in China. Since then, it achieved huge success and the number of people living in extreme poverty reduced sharply in China. But absolute poverty still existed in rural, for the increasing development disparity on account of regional variation; the urban-rural gap was prominent. According to research on rural poverty influencing factors, we found that it had significant differences at different areas and different scales, and lacked a common understanding. For it rarely thought about spatial effects of regional rural poverty for those current existing research on rural poverty influencing factors, it was necessary to study rural poverty influencing factors further. This paper analyzed spatial pattern of rural poverty and main influencing factors on county scale, by applying spatial econometric model and GIS spatial analysis based on the field trip and statistical data which including 15 factors that might influence rural poverty potentially for all of 129 counties in Yunnan province from 2010 to 2015, which intended to providing the theory basis for the formulation and implementation of scientific and effective regional macroscopic poverty reduction policy, and improving poverty reduction that combining poverty status and regional differences even more. This study carried out poverty alleviation and development zoning in Yunnan province, and proposed discrepant policy of regional rural poverty reduction. Results showed that: 1) The number of rural poverty population decreased year by year in Yunnan province, but which was still a high incidence area for rural poverty in China. Rural poverty demonstrated a "center-periphery-edge" pattern which corresponded to low, medium and high poverty among the 129 counties in Yunnan. High poverty areas were concentrated on the northwest, northeast, southeast and south of Yunnan, which involved Jinsha river reaches, Lancang river valley, Nujiang river valley and Red river basin. 2) Regression results of spatial lag model(SLM) showed that the significant influencing factors which affected county rural poverty included terrain relief, traffic distance to municipal government, illiterate rate of population at 15 years old and above of rural, number of hospital beds per thousand people, rate of elderly population at 65 years old and above of rural in Yunnan for the past few years. The regression coefficients of the five significant influencing factors were 0.005, 0.044, 0.380,-1.257 and-2.132 respectively. It produced positive effects on rural poverty for factors of terrain relief, traffic distance to municipal government, illiteracy rate at 15 years old and above of rural in Yunnan province, and the other two factors produced negative effects. 3) Rural poverty had regional differences in Yunnan. In terms of poverty degree and major factors of poverty influencing, Yunnan province was divided into 6 poverty reduction areas which were high poverty area at northwest of Yunnan, high poverty area at northeast of Yunnan, medium-high poverty area at west frontier of Yunnan, medium poverty area at west of Yunnan, high poverty area at southeast of Yunnan and low poverty area at central area of Yunnan. Poverty reduction should be accurately implemented according to regional poverty and major factors of poverty influencing, and strengthened the join forces between adjacent counties to consolidate results of poverty reduction in Yunnan. The spatial effect is an important part of regional rural poverty research, and can provide references for scientific and rational policy setting of regional poverty reduction.
Chinese government devoted continuously to the rural poverty reduction program which was a long-term hot shot of government and academia since the Reform and Opening Up policy in 1978. Targeted poverty alleviation stratagem which aimed to fully eliminating regional overall poverty in 2020 was put into practice since 2013 in China. Since then, it achieved huge success and the number of people living in extreme poverty reduced sharply in China. But absolute poverty still existed in rural, for the increasing development disparity on account of regional variation; the urban-rural gap was prominent. According to research on rural poverty influencing factors, we found that it had significant differences at different areas and different scales, and lacked a common understanding. For it rarely thought about spatial effects of regional rural poverty for those current existing research on rural poverty influencing factors, it was necessary to study rural poverty influencing factors further. This paper analyzed spatial pattern of rural poverty and main influencing factors on county scale, by applying spatial econometric model and GIS spatial analysis based on the field trip and statistical data which including 15 factors that might influence rural poverty potentially for all of 129 counties in Yunnan province from 2010 to 2015, which intended to providing the theory basis for the formulation and implementation of scientific and effective regional macroscopic poverty reduction policy, and improving poverty reduction that combining poverty status and regional differences even more. This study carried out poverty alleviation and development zoning in Yunnan province, and proposed discrepant policy of regional rural poverty reduction. Results showed that: 1) The number of rural poverty population decreased year by year in Yunnan province, but which was still a high incidence area for rural poverty in China. Rural poverty demonstrated a "center-periphery-edge" pattern which corresponded to low, medium and high poverty among the 129 counties in Yunnan. High poverty areas were concentrated on the northwest, northeast, southeast and south of Yunnan, which involved Jinsha river reaches, Lancang river valley, Nujiang river valley and Red river basin. 2) Regression results of spatial lag model(SLM) showed that the significant influencing factors which affected county rural poverty included terrain relief, traffic distance to municipal government, illiterate rate of population at 15 years old and above of rural, number of hospital beds per thousand people, rate of elderly population at 65 years old and above of rural in Yunnan for the past few years. The regression coefficients of the five significant influencing factors were 0.005, 0.044, 0.380,-1.257 and-2.132 respectively. It produced positive effects on rural poverty for factors of terrain relief, traffic distance to municipal government, illiteracy rate at 15 years old and above of rural in Yunnan province, and the other two factors produced negative effects. 3) Rural poverty had regional differences in Yunnan. In terms of poverty degree and major factors of poverty influencing, Yunnan province was divided into 6 poverty reduction areas which were high poverty area at northwest of Yunnan, high poverty area at northeast of Yunnan, medium-high poverty area at west frontier of Yunnan, medium poverty area at west of Yunnan, high poverty area at southeast of Yunnan and low poverty area at central area of Yunnan. Poverty reduction should be accurately implemented according to regional poverty and major factors of poverty influencing, and strengthened the join forces between adjacent counties to consolidate results of poverty reduction in Yunnan. The spatial effect is an important part of regional rural poverty research, and can provide references for scientific and rational policy setting of regional poverty reduction.
引文
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[2]彭贤伟.贵州喀斯特少数民族地区区域贫困机制研究[J].贵州民族研究,2003,23(96):96-101.Peng Xianwei.A study on district poverty mechanism of karst minority nationality areas in Guizhou province[J].Guizhou Ethnic Studies,2003,23(96):96-101.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[4]Daimon T.The spatial dimension of welfare and poverty:Lessons from a regional targeting program in Indonesia[J].Asian Economic Journal,2001,15(4):345-367.
[5]Jalan J,Ravallion M.Geographic poverty traps?A micro model of consumption growth in rural China[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2002,17(4):329-346.
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[10]蔡亚庆,王晓兵,杨军,等.我国农户贫困持续性及决定因素分析:基于相对和绝对贫困线的再审视[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(1):9-16.Cai Yaqing,Wang Xiaobing,Yang Jun,et al.The persistence of poverty and its determinants:Evidence under the absolute and relative poverty line[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2016,37(1):9-16.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]杨慧敏,罗庆,许家伟.中国农村贫困的动态发展及影响因素分析:基于CHNS数据[J].经济经纬,2016,33(5):42-46.Yang Huimin,Luo Qing,Xu Jiawei.An analysis of the dynamic development and influencing factors of rural poverty in China:Based on the dataset of CHNS[J].Economic Survey,2016,33(5):42-46.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]杨慧敏,罗庆,李小建,等.生态敏感区农户多维贫困测度及影响因素分析:以河南省淅川县3个村为例[J].经济地理,2016,36(10):137-144.Yang Huimin,Luo Qing,Li Xiaojian,et al.Multidimensional poverty measurement and influencing factor analysis at the households scale of the ecological sensitive area:A case study on three villages of Xichuan county in Henan province[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(10):137-144.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]张永丽,张佩,卢晓.农户多维贫困测度及其影响因素分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2017,17(5):138-147.Zhang Yongli,Zhang Pei,Lu Xiao.Analysis of multidimensional poverty measurement of peasant households and recognition of its cause[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University:Social Science Edition,2017,17(5):138-147.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.Liu Yansui,Li Jintao.Geographic detection and optimizing decision of the differentiation mechanism of rural poverty in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):161-173.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]武鹏,李同昇,李卫民.县域农村贫困化空间分异及其影响因素:以陕西山阳县为例[J].地理研究,2018,37(3):593-606.Wu Peng,Li Tongsheng,Li Weimin.Spatial differentiation and influencing factors analysis of rural poverty at county scale:A case study of Shanyang county in Shaanxi province,China[J].Geographic Research,2018,37(3):593-606.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]王永明,王美霞,吴殿廷,等.贵州省乡村贫困空间格局与形成机制分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(2):217-227.Wang Yongming,Wang Meixia,Wu Dianting,et al.Spatial patterns and determinants of rural poverty:A case of Guizhou province,China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(2):217-227.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]杨慧敏,罗庆,李小建.河南省县域贫困程度及影响因素分析[J].人文地理,2017,32(5):48-55.Yang Huimin,Luo Qing,Li Xiaojian.The analysis of county poverty degree and the influencing factors of Henan province[J].Human Geography,2017,32(5):48-55.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]蔡进,禹洋春,骆东奇,等.重庆市农村多维贫困空间分异及影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(22):235-245.Cai Jin,Yu Yangchun,Luo Dongqi,et al.Space differentiation and its influence factor analysis of rural multidimensional poverty in Chongqing[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2018,34(22):235-245.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]陈烨烽,王艳慧,赵文吉,等.中国贫困村致贫因素分析及贫困类型划分[J].地理学报,2017,72(10):1827-1844.Chen Yefeng,Wang Yanhui,Zhao Wenji,et al.Contributing factors and classification of poor villages in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(10):1827-1844.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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