关于年代际气候变化可能机制的研究
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摘要
年代际气候变化作为年际和月季气候变化的重要背景,往往影响着年际和月季时间尺度的气候及特征。随着科学的发展进步和社会需求的提高,年代际气候变化已成为人们关注的重要问题。作为气候动力学和气候预测研究的重要内容之一,年代际气候变化及其动力学机制的研究在国内外都在蓬勃开展,并取得了不少的成果。本文除简要介绍了中国气候的年代际变化特征,将着重就年代际气候变化的可能机制作一个系统的综合性讨论,内容主要包括全球主要海温变化模态的影响、气候系统相互关系年代际变化的影响、大气行星尺度系统年代际变化的影响,以及太阳活动及火山爆发的影响等。大家知道,年代际气候变化研究十分重要,但也可以看到年代际气候变化的动力学机制却十分复杂,不少问题还没有搞的十分清楚,需要加大力量进行深入研究;我们相信,深入的研究结果必将对年代际气候变化的预测提供可靠的科学依据,进而推动年代际气候变化的业务预测及其能力的提高。
As an important background of month-seasonal and interannual climate variations, interdecadal climate variation often affects climate features with interannual and month-seasonal time scales. Along with the development and progress of science and the rise of social requirement, interdecadal climate variability has become an important issue that has attracted more attentions. As one of important contents on climate dynamics and climate foreshadow, research has been launched vigorously in the world. Some research achievements have been published. In this paper, we will focus on systematic and comprehensive discussion on possible mechanisms of interdecadal climate variability. The major contents include: Influences of main patterns of ocean temperature in the global; influences of interdecadal variation of climate system relationship; influences of interdecadal variation of the atmospheric system on the planetary scale; and impacts of solar activities and volcano eruptions. As we know, studies on interdecadal climate variability are important, but the dynamic mechanism of interdecadal climate variability is so complicated. There are more problems that still remain unsolved and need further in-depth study. We believe that further in-depth research achievements will be able to provide reliable scientific basis for the foreshadow of interdecadal climate variation, promote professional work of interdecadal climate variation forecast and improve the forecasting capability.
As an important background of month-seasonal and interannual climate variations, interdecadal climate variation often affects climate features with interannual and month-seasonal time scales. Along with the development and progress of science and the rise of social requirement, interdecadal climate variability has become an important issue that has attracted more attentions. As one of important contents on climate dynamics and climate foreshadow, research has been launched vigorously in the world. Some research achievements have been published. In this paper, we will focus on systematic and comprehensive discussion on possible mechanisms of interdecadal climate variability. The major contents include: Influences of main patterns of ocean temperature in the global; influences of interdecadal variation of climate system relationship; influences of interdecadal variation of the atmospheric system on the planetary scale; and impacts of solar activities and volcano eruptions. As we know, studies on interdecadal climate variability are important, but the dynamic mechanism of interdecadal climate variability is so complicated. There are more problems that still remain unsolved and need further in-depth study. We believe that further in-depth research achievements will be able to provide reliable scientific basis for the foreshadow of interdecadal climate variation, promote professional work of interdecadal climate variation forecast and improve the forecasting capability.
引文
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