极涡、阻塞高压和西伯利亚高压在极端低温事件中的组合性异常特征
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摘要
选择2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害和2016年"霸王级"寒潮,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和地面台站资料,采用西伯利亚高压指数、平流层极涡指数与二维阻塞高压指数,分析了两次极端低温过程期间西伯利亚高压、阻塞高压与平流层极涡的组合性异常特征.结果表明,与1970-2005年的气候平均态相比, 2008年西伯利亚高压偏强8.7 hPa,阻塞高压频率偏高50%,极涡偏强190 gpm;2016年西伯利亚高压偏强16.8 hPa,阻塞高压频率偏高约60%,极涡偏强约296 gpm,说明2016年寒潮过程中3种大尺度天气系统的异常比2008年更显著.分析两次极端低温过程中3种大尺度系统的组合性异常特征,发现与1970-2005年气候平均态相比, 2016年寒潮过程期间极涡偏强,北极高空有较强冷空气,北极地表爆发性增温与中高纬阻塞高压的发展,使大量极寒冷的空气在西伯利亚地区积聚,在高空气流的引导下向中国爆发,使中国大部分地区气温短时间内急剧下降; 2008年平流层极涡能量下传,使得阻塞高压长期维持,西伯利亚高压主体也长时间维持,小股冷空气不断东移南下,使中国南部地区维持长时间低温,并与来自南方的暖湿气流交汇,形成长时间的雨雪冰冻天气.
Choosing two typical extreme cold wave events, i.e. the extended snow storm in 2008 and the strong cold wave in 2016, and by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and 671 stations daily surface temperature data in China, the Siberian high index, blocking event index and the stratosphere polar vortex index were calculated to analyze the integrated circulation anomalies of the Siberian high, blocking and polar vortex during extreme cold events. During the event in 2008, the Siberian high was 8.7 hPa stronger, blocking frequency 50% higher and polar vortex 190 gpm stronger than the climatologicalmean. The results showed that, during the extreme low-temperature event in 2016, the Siberian high was16.8 hPa stronger, blocking frequency 60% higher, and polar vortex 296 gpm stronger than the climatological mean, meaning that the anomalies of the three large-scale systems in 2016 were more obvious than those in 2008. As for the integrated circulation anomalies of those three systems during the two events, the results showed that polar vortex was stronger during the event in 2016 than the climatological scenario and there was strong cold air in the Arctic. Explosive warming in the Arctic and the development of the mid-latitude blocking sent heavy cold air to Siberia and airflow at 500 hPa led the cold air to China, making the temperature decrease sharply in a short time. While during the event in 2008, the anomalies of stratosphere polar vortex propagated downward and affected the troposphere. The blocking sustained for a long time, as did the Siberian high. The cold air moved to the south and the east constantly, maintaining a low temperature in southern China for a long time, and leading to cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather, with the help of southern warm and humid air.
Choosing two typical extreme cold wave events, i.e. the extended snow storm in 2008 and the strong cold wave in 2016, and by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and 671 stations daily surface temperature data in China, the Siberian high index, blocking event index and the stratosphere polar vortex index were calculated to analyze the integrated circulation anomalies of the Siberian high, blocking and polar vortex during extreme cold events. During the event in 2008, the Siberian high was 8.7 hPa stronger, blocking frequency 50% higher and polar vortex 190 gpm stronger than the climatologicalmean. The results showed that, during the extreme low-temperature event in 2016, the Siberian high was16.8 hPa stronger, blocking frequency 60% higher, and polar vortex 296 gpm stronger than the climatological mean, meaning that the anomalies of the three large-scale systems in 2016 were more obvious than those in 2008. As for the integrated circulation anomalies of those three systems during the two events, the results showed that polar vortex was stronger during the event in 2016 than the climatological scenario and there was strong cold air in the Arctic. Explosive warming in the Arctic and the development of the mid-latitude blocking sent heavy cold air to Siberia and airflow at 500 hPa led the cold air to China, making the temperature decrease sharply in a short time. While during the event in 2008, the anomalies of stratosphere polar vortex propagated downward and affected the troposphere. The blocking sustained for a long time, as did the Siberian high. The cold air moved to the south and the east constantly, maintaining a low temperature in southern China for a long time, and leading to cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather, with the help of southern warm and humid air.
引文
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[20]王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(2):63-67.
[21]孙楠,段昊书,徐文彬.“超级寒潮”来了[J].生命与灾害, 2016(2):20-21.
[22]龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象, 2002, 21(1):8-14.
[23]易明建,陈月娟,周任君. 2008年中国南方雪灾与平流层极涡异常的等熵位涡分析[J].高原气象, 2009, 28(4):880-888.
[24] Deng Shu-mei, Chen Yue-juan, Luo Tao, et al. The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian weather[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2008, 25(5):841-846.
[25]熊光明.平流层极涡不同形态分布与我国天气气候的关系[D].成都:成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,2012.
[26]王东海,柳崇健,刘英,等. 2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气特征及其天气动力学成因的初步分析[J].气象学报, 2008, 66(3):405-422.
[27]侯亚红,杨修群,李刚.冬季西伯利亚高压变化特征及其与中国气温的关系[J].气象科技, 2007, 35(5):646-650.
[28] Davini P, Cagnazzo C, Anstey J. A blocking view of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling[C]//EGU General Assembly Conference, Vienna:European Geosciences Union, 2015.
[29]魏科.北半球平流层极涡年际和季内变异及其对东亚冬季风的影响[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所,2007.
[2]李维京,李怡,陈丽娟,等.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报, 2013, 24(4):385-396.
[3] Ding Y, Krishnamurti T N. Heat budget of the siberian high and the winter monsoon[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1987, 115(10):24-28.
[4]朱乾根,施能.近百年北半球冬季大气活动中心的长期变化及其与中国气候变化的关系[J].气象学报, 1997,55(6):750-758.
[5]朱安豹,马敏劲,杨秀梅,等.近63年中国东部冬季气温异常的时空分布特征[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2016, 52(1):75-83.
[6] Tania B, Raible C C, Stocker T F. The relationship of winter season North Atlantic blocking frequencies to extreme cold or dry spells in the ERA-40[J]. Tellus Series A:Dynamic Meteorology&Oceanography, 2011,63(2):212-222.
[7]李艳,马敏劲,王式功,等.阻塞高压与低温持续性降水之间的关系[J].干旱气象, 2012, 30(4):539-545.
[8]叶培龙,李艳,王式功,等.北半球不同强度、生命期阻塞高压的变化特征及其对温度的影响[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版, 2015, 51(5):639-645.
[9]陶诗言,卫捷. 2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析[J].气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(4):337-350.
[10] Wallace J M, Thompson D W J. Annular modes and climate prediction[J]. Physics Today, 2002, 55(2):28-33.
[11]陈月娟,周任君,邓淑梅,等. 2008年雪灾同平流层环流异常的关系[J].中国科学技术大学学报, 2009, 39(1):15-22.
[12]贺圣平,王会军,徐鑫萍,等. 2015/2016冬季北极世纪之暖与超级厄尔尼诺对东亚气候异常的影响[J].大气科学学报, 2016, 39(6):735-743.
[13]李崇银,杨辉,顾薇.中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析[J].气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(2):113-122.
[14]汪结华,陈凯诺,穆杨,等.对霸王级寒潮引起大风降温成因的研究[J].舰船电子工程, 2017, 37(4):86-92.
[15] Scherrer S C, Croci-Maspoli M, Schwierz C, et al. Twodimensional indices of atmospheric blocking and their statistical relationship with winter climate patterns in the Euro-Atlantic region[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2006, 26(2):233-249.
[16] Wiedenmann J M, Lupo A R, Mokhov I I, et al. The climatology of blocking anticyclones for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres:block intensity as a diagnostic[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15(15):3459-3473.
[17] Davini P, Cagnazzo C, Gualdi S, et al. Bidimensional diagnostics, variability, and trends of Northern Hemisphere blocking[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(19):6496-6509.
[18]李崇银,顾薇. 2008年1月乌拉尔阻塞高压异常活动的分析研究[J].大气科学, 2010, 34(5):865-874.
[19] Cheung H H N, Zhou W. Implications of Ural blocking for East Asian winter climate in CMIP5 GCMs, partⅠ:biases in the historical scenario[J]. Journal of Climate,2014, 28(6):2203-2216.
[20]王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(2):63-67.
[21]孙楠,段昊书,徐文彬.“超级寒潮”来了[J].生命与灾害, 2016(2):20-21.
[22]龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象, 2002, 21(1):8-14.
[23]易明建,陈月娟,周任君. 2008年中国南方雪灾与平流层极涡异常的等熵位涡分析[J].高原气象, 2009, 28(4):880-888.
[24] Deng Shu-mei, Chen Yue-juan, Luo Tao, et al. The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian weather[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2008, 25(5):841-846.
[25]熊光明.平流层极涡不同形态分布与我国天气气候的关系[D].成都:成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,2012.
[26]王东海,柳崇健,刘英,等. 2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气特征及其天气动力学成因的初步分析[J].气象学报, 2008, 66(3):405-422.
[27]侯亚红,杨修群,李刚.冬季西伯利亚高压变化特征及其与中国气温的关系[J].气象科技, 2007, 35(5):646-650.
[28] Davini P, Cagnazzo C, Anstey J. A blocking view of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling[C]//EGU General Assembly Conference, Vienna:European Geosciences Union, 2015.
[29]魏科.北半球平流层极涡年际和季内变异及其对东亚冬季风的影响[D].北京:中国科学院大气物理研究所,2007.