1971—2011年汾河流域降水时空特征
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摘要
基于汾河流域内154个雨量站1971—2010年的逐月降水量数据,利用GIS地统计模块和MK非参数检验方法,对汾河全流域及其上中下游4个空间尺度的降水量在年、四季和汛期的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:时间上,汾河流域的年、夏季和汛期降水量均呈不显著的递减趋势,春秋冬三季降水量均呈不显著的递增趋势;空间上,由于地形原因,汾河流域上游与其他尺度的年、夏冬季和汛期降水量分布表现相反;汾河流域的年、夏秋季和汛期降水序列在20世纪70年代中后期(1979年居多)发生突变,之后降水基本呈不显著的递减趋势;春季降水量在1973年附近开始突变,80年代呈极显著增加趋势;冬季降水量在1973年附近开始突变,1999年后呈显著减少趋势。
The Fenhe River Basin is located in a semiarid and semi-humid region. As the main replenishment source,precipitation could exert the significant impact on the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in this basin. A dataset of monthly precipitation series( from 1971 to 2011) from 154 precipitation stations was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation,precipitation in spring( from March to May),summer( from June to August),autumn( from September to November) and winter( from December to next January) as well as flood season( from June to September) in the whole Fenhe River Basin( FHRB) and its upper reaches( TUR),middle reaches( TMR) and lower reaches( TLR) during the period of 1971-2011. The geostatistical analyst module of GIS was used to compare and select the optimal interpolation model,and the nonparametric MannKendall( MK) statistical method was used to test the trend and abrupt change. The study results are as follow:(1)There were the similar spatial distribution patterns of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season in FHRB,TMR and TLR,the precipitation was in a decrease trend from the south to the north and from the mountainous areas to the basins,and the lowest rainfall value occurred in the central Taiyuan Basin. In spring and winter,the trend of isohyets was from the east to the west with a decrease trend from the south to the north. In autumn,the trend of isohyets was from the northwest to the southeast with a decrease trend from the southwest to the northeast. Spatial distribution of precipitation was homogeneous in spring and winter in TUR,while annual precipitation and rainfall in summer,autumn and flood season was high in the western mountainous areas than that in the eastern mountainous areas and central valley areas;(2) As a whole,there was a negative trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season,but a positive trend of precipitation in spring,autumn( including TUR) and winter in FHRB,TMR and TLR. On the contrary,there was a positive trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season,but a negative trend of precipitation in winter in TUR. The liner trends of annual precipitation,precipitation in spring,summer,autumn,winter and flood season in FHRB during the period from 1971 to 2011 were-6. 0 mm·( 10 a)-1,5. 3 mm·( 10 a)-1,-10. 0 mm·( 10 a)-1,6. 6 mm·( 10 a)-1,0. 2 mm·( 10 a)-1 and-7. 2 mm·( 10 a)-1 respectively. All the decrease or increase trends were not significant( P > 0. 10);(3) Abrupt changes of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer,autumn and flood season were detected during mid-late 1970 s,most of which occurred in 1979. After the abrupt years,precipitation trends were mainly negative but not reached the significant level( P > 0. 05). In spring,abrupt changes of precipitation were detected in 1973,and the positive trend reached a significant level( P < 0. 01) in the 1980 s. In winter,abrupt changes of precipitation were detected in 1973 in FHRB and TLR but in 1979 in TUR and TMR,and the negative trend reached a significant level( P <0. 05) in 1999.
The Fenhe River Basin is located in a semiarid and semi-humid region. As the main replenishment source,precipitation could exert the significant impact on the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in this basin. A dataset of monthly precipitation series( from 1971 to 2011) from 154 precipitation stations was used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation,precipitation in spring( from March to May),summer( from June to August),autumn( from September to November) and winter( from December to next January) as well as flood season( from June to September) in the whole Fenhe River Basin( FHRB) and its upper reaches( TUR),middle reaches( TMR) and lower reaches( TLR) during the period of 1971-2011. The geostatistical analyst module of GIS was used to compare and select the optimal interpolation model,and the nonparametric MannKendall( MK) statistical method was used to test the trend and abrupt change. The study results are as follow:(1)There were the similar spatial distribution patterns of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season in FHRB,TMR and TLR,the precipitation was in a decrease trend from the south to the north and from the mountainous areas to the basins,and the lowest rainfall value occurred in the central Taiyuan Basin. In spring and winter,the trend of isohyets was from the east to the west with a decrease trend from the south to the north. In autumn,the trend of isohyets was from the northwest to the southeast with a decrease trend from the southwest to the northeast. Spatial distribution of precipitation was homogeneous in spring and winter in TUR,while annual precipitation and rainfall in summer,autumn and flood season was high in the western mountainous areas than that in the eastern mountainous areas and central valley areas;(2) As a whole,there was a negative trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season,but a positive trend of precipitation in spring,autumn( including TUR) and winter in FHRB,TMR and TLR. On the contrary,there was a positive trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer and flood season,but a negative trend of precipitation in winter in TUR. The liner trends of annual precipitation,precipitation in spring,summer,autumn,winter and flood season in FHRB during the period from 1971 to 2011 were-6. 0 mm·( 10 a)-1,5. 3 mm·( 10 a)-1,-10. 0 mm·( 10 a)-1,6. 6 mm·( 10 a)-1,0. 2 mm·( 10 a)-1 and-7. 2 mm·( 10 a)-1 respectively. All the decrease or increase trends were not significant( P > 0. 10);(3) Abrupt changes of annual precipitation and rainfall in summer,autumn and flood season were detected during mid-late 1970 s,most of which occurred in 1979. After the abrupt years,precipitation trends were mainly negative but not reached the significant level( P > 0. 05). In spring,abrupt changes of precipitation were detected in 1973,and the positive trend reached a significant level( P < 0. 01) in the 1980 s. In winter,abrupt changes of precipitation were detected in 1973 in FHRB and TLR but in 1979 in TUR and TMR,and the negative trend reached a significant level( P <0. 05) in 1999.
引文
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[3]IPCC.Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2007:2-5.
[4]陈峪,高歌,任国玉,等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.[Chen Yu,Gao Ge,Ren Guoyu,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten major basins in China between 1956 and2000[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(5):637-643.]
[5]Wandera S M,Makhanu S K,Makokha G O.Estimation of spatial rainfall variability in a river basin from point rainfall data using GIS[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2011,3:203-213.
[6]Edossa D C,Babel M S,Gupta A D.Drought analysis in the Awash River Basin,Ethiopia[J].Water Resources Management,2010,24(7):1 441-1 460.
[7]Aziz O I A,Burn D H.Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,319(1/4):282-294.
[8]杨永刚,李彩梅,秦作栋,等.汾河源区不同景观带水文过程研究[J].环境科学,2014,35(6):2 108-2 113.[Yang Yonggang,Li Caimei,Qin Zuodong,et al.Hydrologic processes of the different landscape zones in Fenhe River headwater catchment[J].Environmental Science,2014,35(6):2 108-2 113.]
[9]吴永萍,王澄海,沈永平.1960—2009年塔里木河流域降水时空演化特征及原因分析[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1 268-1 273.[Wu Yongping,Wang Chenghai,Shen Yongping.Spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation over Tarim River Basin during1960-2009:Characteristics and reasons[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(6):1 268-1 273.]
[10]唐晶晶.1952—2007年间长江流域降水时空分布变化[D].上海:华东师范大学,2010.[Tang Jingjing.Analysis on the Spatiotemporal Features of Precipitation during 1952-2007 in the Yantze River Basin[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2010.]
[11]Wang Y,Xu Y,Lei C,et al.Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and dryness/wetness in Yangtze River Delta,Eastern China,during 1960-2012[J].Atmospheric Research,2016,172-173:196-205.
[12]Zhang Q,Peng J,Xu C Y,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation regimes across Yangtze River Basin,China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2013,115(3/4):703-712.
[13]庞爱萍,李春晖,杨志峰,等.近50年黄河流域降水变化的时空特征[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2008,44(4):420-423,336.[Pang Aiping,Li Chunhui,Yang Zhifeng,et al.Spatial and temporal changes in precitation in the Yellow River Basin in the last 50 years[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2008,44(4):420-423,336.]
[14]卢燕宇,吴必文,田红,等.基于Kriging插值的1961—2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(5):567-573.[Lu Yanyu,Wu Biwen,Tian Hong,et al.Spatial and temporal variability characteristics of precipitaiton in Huai River Basin during 1961-2005[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2011,20(5):567-573.]
[15]周亮广,戴仕宝.近60年来淮河流域强降雨时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015(5):847-852.[Zhou Liangguang,Dai Shibao.Spatial and temporal vatiation characteristics of heavy rainfall in the Huaihe River Basin in recent 60 years[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015(5):847-852.]
[16]程楠楠,何洪鸣,逯亚杰,等.黄土高原近52年降水时空动态特征[J].山东农业大学学报:自然科学版,2016,47(3):388-392.[Cheng Nannan,He Hongming,Lu Yajie,et al.Spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics of precipitation in the Loess Plateau,China for recent 52 years[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University:Natural Science Edition,2016,47(3):388-392.]
[17]Wan L,Zhang X P,Ma Q,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and extreme events on the Loess Plateau of China between 1957 and 2009[J].Hydrological Processes,2014,28(18):4 971-4 983.
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