我国西部地区城市气候变化适应能力评价
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摘要
我国西部地区城市自然气候系统敏感且脆弱,主动适应能力处于落后阶段,应对气候变化风险阻力大。文章以西部地区适应型试点城市和个别省会城市作为主要研究对象,参考"压力—状态—响应"(PSR)环境指标框架构建评价指标体系,利用综合评价法即层次分析法和逼近理想解排序法建立评价模型,根据综合指数评价结果将城市的适应能力划分为Ⅰ级低水平、Ⅱ级中等水平和Ⅲ级高水平。结果表明:西部地区城市气候变化适应能力整体为Ⅱ级中等水平,城市化进程相对稳定,城市状态指数基本分布在中等水平,压力层的适应能力指数相对状态指数的变化具有时间上的差异,响应指数变化具有滞后性;相对于西北地区,西南地区城市所面临的气候变化压力更具有不稳定性,而响应能力较好;根据适应能力指数等级将城市适应能力类型分为"初阶型""中阶型"和"高阶型"。
Comparing with the urban climate change adaptive capacity in China's eastern and central areas, it was relatively low in Western China owing to its eco-environment vulnerability and sensibility of natural system. This study chose the adaptive pilot cities and individual provincial capital cities in Western China as the main research object. 16 indicators were selected to build the Evaluation Index System, which was refered by the "Press-State-Response"(PSR) framework. Evaluation model was built by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the expert scoring method as well as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS). According to results of the Adaptation Capability Index, it was divided into three levels, namely, LevelⅠ, LevelⅡ and LevelⅢ. The urban climate change adaptability in Western China concluded as follow: The urban climate change adaptation capability was generally LevelⅡ in Western China, in which the process of urbanization was relatively stable and the urban status index was basically distributed at the medium level. Compared with the status index, the pressure index had a temporal difference, while, the response index had a hysteresis. Compared with the climate change pressures faced by cities in Northwest China, it was more unstable in Southwest China. However, the response capability was better in Southwest China. There were three stages of urban climate change adaptation capability in Western China, namely, the primary stage, the middle stage and the advanced stage.
Comparing with the urban climate change adaptive capacity in China's eastern and central areas, it was relatively low in Western China owing to its eco-environment vulnerability and sensibility of natural system. This study chose the adaptive pilot cities and individual provincial capital cities in Western China as the main research object. 16 indicators were selected to build the Evaluation Index System, which was refered by the "Press-State-Response"(PSR) framework. Evaluation model was built by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the expert scoring method as well as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS). According to results of the Adaptation Capability Index, it was divided into three levels, namely, LevelⅠ, LevelⅡ and LevelⅢ. The urban climate change adaptability in Western China concluded as follow: The urban climate change adaptation capability was generally LevelⅡ in Western China, in which the process of urbanization was relatively stable and the urban status index was basically distributed at the medium level. Compared with the status index, the pressure index had a temporal difference, while, the response index had a hysteresis. Compared with the climate change pressures faced by cities in Northwest China, it was more unstable in Southwest China. However, the response capability was better in Southwest China. There were three stages of urban climate change adaptation capability in Western China, namely, the primary stage, the middle stage and the advanced stage.
引文
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[18]张君枝,刘云帆,马文林,等.城市水资源适应气候变化能力评估方法研究--以北京市为例[J].北京建筑大学学报,2015(2):43-48.
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[23]田瑾.多指标综合评价分析方法综述[J].时代金融,2008(2):25-27.
[24]虞晓芬,傅玳.多指标综合评价方法综述[J].知识丛林,2004(11):119-121.
[25]吴春林.采用专家打分法对债权价值进行分析的探讨[J].中国资产评估,2007(5):18-20.
[26]Wang Y M,Elhag T M S.Fuzzy TOPSIS method based on alpha level sets with an application to bridge risk assessment[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2006,31(2):309-319.
[27]张洪青,赵艳丽.多指标常用综合评价方法比较研究[J].现代商贸工业,2014(7):20.
[28]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评价模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014(7):1442-1448.
[2]IPCC.Climate change 2007:The physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[3]Smit B,Wandel J.Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):282-292.
[4]Yohe G,Tol R S J.Indicators for social and economic coping capacity-Moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity[J].Global Environmental Change,2002,12(1):25-40.
[5]Smit B,Burton I,Klein R J T,et al.The science of adaptation:A framework for assessment[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1999(4):199-213.
[6]Parry M L.Climate change 2007:Impacts,adaptation and vulnerability:Contribution of working groupⅡto the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[7]UNDP.Monitoring and evaluation framework for adaptation to climate change[M].New York City:United Nations Development Programme,2007.
[8]Pelling M,Abeling T,Garschagen M.Emergence and transition in London’s climate change adaptation pathways[J].Journal of Extreme Events,2016(3):1-25.
[9]Brink E,Aalders T,ádám D,et al.Cascades of green:A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas[J].Global Environmental Change,2016,36(1):111-123.
[10]殷永元.气候变化对中国西部地区影响的脆弱性和适应性综合评价[J].世界环境,2004(3):25-27.
[11]谢欣露,郑艳,潘家华,等.气候变化下的城市脆弱性及适应--以长三角城市为例[J].城市与环境研究,2013(1):43-62.
[12]潘家华,郑艳.适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010(10):1-5.
[13]刘燕华,钱凤魁,王文涛,等.应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(5):1-6.
[14]陈太根,董婕,延军平,等.区域气候变化适应度评价--以咸阳市为例[J].地理科学进展,2011(3):319-324.
[15]金桃.中国城市应对气候变化能力评估[D].上海:上海师范大学,2012.
[16]Chen M P,Sun F,Berry P,et al.Integrated assessment of China’s adaptive capacity to climate change with a capital approach[J]Climate Change,2014,128(3-4):367-380.
[17]Li M P,Huo X X,Peng C H,et al.Complementary livelihood capital as a means to enhance adaptive capacity:A case of the Loess Plateau,China[J].Global Environmental Change,2017,47:143-152.
[18]张君枝,刘云帆,马文林,等.城市水资源适应气候变化能力评估方法研究--以北京市为例[J].北京建筑大学学报,2015(2):43-48.
[19]Carter J G,Cavan G,Connelly A,et al.Climate change and the city:Building capacity for urban adaptation[J].Progress in Planning,2015,95:1-66.
[20]国家发展改革委,住房城乡建设部.城市适应气候变化行动方案[EB/OL].(2016-02-04).http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201602/t20160216_774721.html.
[21]宗边.城市适应气候变化方案发布:30个城市将试点气候适应型城市建设[EB/OL].(2016-02-29).http://www.mohurd.gov cn/zxydt/201602/t20160229_226770.html.
[22]李莉,吴洁,岳超源.城市可持续发展指标体系及综合评价研究(一)[J].土木工程与管理学报,2000(2):30-35.
[23]田瑾.多指标综合评价分析方法综述[J].时代金融,2008(2):25-27.
[24]虞晓芬,傅玳.多指标综合评价方法综述[J].知识丛林,2004(11):119-121.
[25]吴春林.采用专家打分法对债权价值进行分析的探讨[J].中国资产评估,2007(5):18-20.
[26]Wang Y M,Elhag T M S.Fuzzy TOPSIS method based on alpha level sets with an application to bridge risk assessment[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2006,31(2):309-319.
[27]张洪青,赵艳丽.多指标常用综合评价方法比较研究[J].现代商贸工业,2014(7):20.
[28]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评价模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014(7):1442-1448.