国际金属价格指数与稀土出口价格的研究——基于TVP-VAR模型
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摘要
自2013年开始,中国稀土出口价格不断下跌,2014年稀土案败诉后,政府开始积极采取稀土行业规范管理以及组建稀土大集团等政策,但是未能改变稀土价格下跌的态势。为了分析造成稀土出口价格下跌的原因,使用TVP-VAR模型进行实证研究,结果发现,国际有色金属价格持续下跌是中国稀土出口价格下跌的重要因素,而在我国稀土长期产能过剩背景下,稀土出口规模过大对稀土出口价格的下跌有重要影响;另外人民币汇率走势也对稀土出口价格下跌有一定的影响。在经济新常态下,需要注重国际传导因素,密切关注国际金属价格波动状况,同时加大对稀土供给侧的改革,严格控制稀土非法生产和出口,并逐渐努力实现人民币作为稀土出口的计价货币,降低汇率风险。
Since 2013, the export price of rare earths in China has been declining. After losing rare earth case in 2014, the government began to actively adopt the normative management of rare earth industry and formation of large rare earth groups, but failed to change the trend of falling prices of rare earths. In order to analyze the causes of the decline in export prices of rare earths, we use the TVP-VAR model to research and found that the continuous decline of international non-ferrous metals prices is an important factor in the decline of China's export prices of rare earths. In the long-term overcapacity of rare earths in China, excessive export volume also has a significant impact on the decline of export prices of rare earths; in addition, the RMB exchange rate movements have a certain impact on the decline of export prices of rare earths. With China's economy entering the new normal, we need to pay attention to the international transmission factors and the fluctuations of international metal prices. We should increase the reform on the supply side of rare earths, and strictly control the illegal production and export of rare earths. We should also gradually strive to RMB used as rare earth export denominated currency to reduce exchange rate risk.
Since 2013, the export price of rare earths in China has been declining. After losing rare earth case in 2014, the government began to actively adopt the normative management of rare earth industry and formation of large rare earth groups, but failed to change the trend of falling prices of rare earths. In order to analyze the causes of the decline in export prices of rare earths, we use the TVP-VAR model to research and found that the continuous decline of international non-ferrous metals prices is an important factor in the decline of China's export prices of rare earths. In the long-term overcapacity of rare earths in China, excessive export volume also has a significant impact on the decline of export prices of rare earths; in addition, the RMB exchange rate movements have a certain impact on the decline of export prices of rare earths. With China's economy entering the new normal, we need to pay attention to the international transmission factors and the fluctuations of international metal prices. We should increase the reform on the supply side of rare earths, and strictly control the illegal production and export of rare earths. We should also gradually strive to RMB used as rare earth export denominated currency to reduce exchange rate risk.
引文
[1] Wang X,Ge J,Li J,Han A.Market impacts of environmental regulations on the production of rare earths:A computable general equilibrium analysis for China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,154:614-620.
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[3] https://www.usgs.gov/.
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[7] 何欢浪,陈琳.纵向关联市场、资源税改革和中国稀土出口——对资源从量税和从价税实施效果的评估[J].财经研究,2017(7):95-106.He H L,Chen L.Vertical related markets,resource tax reform and the export of China’s rare earth:evaluation of implementation effect of volume-based and ad valorem tax of resources[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2017(7):95-106.
[8] Imholte D D,Nguyen R T,Vedantam A,Brown M,Iyer A,Smith B J,Collins J W,Anderson C G,O’Kelley B.An assessment of U.S.rare earth availability for supporting U.S.wind energy growth targets[J].Energy Policy,2018,113:294-305.
[9] Baldi L,Peri M,Vandone D.Clean energy industries and rare earth materials:Economic and financial issues[J].Energy Policy,2014,66:53-61.
[10] Smith Stegen K.Heavy rare earths,permanent magnets,and renewable energies:An imminent crisis[J].Energy Policy,2015,79:1-8.
[11] Schlinkert D,van den Boogaart K G.The development of the market for rare earth elements:Insights from economic theory[J].Resources Policy,2015,46:272-280.
[12] Barteková E,Kemp R.National strategies for securing a stable supply of rare earths in different world regions[J].Resources Policy,2016,49:153-164.
[13] Jamaludin H,Lahiri-Dutt K.Could lynas make a difference in the global political economy of rare earth elements in future?[J].Resources Policy,2017(53):267-273.
[14] Machacek E,Kalvig P.Assessing advanced rare earth element-bearing deposits for industrial demand in the EU[J].Resources Policy,2016(49):186-203.
[15] Hayes-Labruto L,Schillebeeckx S J D,Workman M,Shah N.Contrasting perspectives on China’s rare earths policies:Reframing the debate through a stakeholder lens[J].Energy Policy,2013,63:55-68.
[16] 边璐,张江朋,宋宇辰,范兆瑞.国际金属价格指数、广义需求与中国稀土产品价格——基于两市场协整视角下的多因素模型研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):641-652.Bian L,Zhang J P,Song Y C,Fan Z R.Foreign metals index,general requirement and prices of chinese rare earth products:Research on multi-factor model based on the perspective of co-integration of two markets [J].Resources Science,2014,36(3):641-652.
[17] Primiceri G.Time-varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy:A corrigendum[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2005,72(3):821-852.
[18] Nakajima J.Time-varying parameter var model with stochastic volatility:An overview of methodology and empirical applications[J].Monetary and Economic Studies,2011,29:107-142.
[19] Jebabli I,Arouri M,Teulon F.On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices:An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility[J].Energy Economics,2014,45:66-98.
[20] Lai H,Wang K.Relationship between the trading behavior of three institutional investors and Taiwan Stock Index futures returns[J].Economic Modelling,2014,41:156-165.
[21] Bekiros S,Gupta R,Paccagnini A.Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty[J].Economics Letters,2015,132:125-128.
[22] Gnimassoun B,Jo?ts M,Razafindrabe T.On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies:The case of Canada[J].International Economics,2017,152:63-78.
[23] Brown M,Eggert R.Simulating producer responses to selected Chinese rare earth policies[J].Resources Policy,2017.
[2] 中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室.《中国的稀土状况与政策》白皮书[M].北京:人民出版社,2012.Press Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China.White Paper on China’s Rare Earth Status and Policy[M].Beijing:People’s Publishing House,2012.
[3] https://www.usgs.gov/.
[4] 宋文飞,李国平,韩先锋.稀土定价权缺失、理论机理及制度解释[J].中国工业经济,2011(10):46-55.Song W F,Li G P,Han X F.Missed pricing power over rare earth:Theoretical mechanism and system explanation[J].China Industrial Economics,2011(10):46-55.
[5] 邓炜.国际经验及其对中国争夺稀土定价权的启示[J].国际经贸探索,2011(1):30-34.Deng W.International experiences in contending for commodity pricing power and their enlightenment to China rare-earth[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2011(1):30-34.
[6] 曾先峰,李国平,汪海洲.基于完全成本的碳酸稀土理论价格研究——兼论中国稀土资源定价机制改革[J].财经研究,2012(9):134-144.Zeng X F,Li G P,Wang H Z.Theoretical price of rare earth carbonate based on full cost:Analysis on the reform of pricing mechanism of rare earth resources in China[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2012(9):134-144.
[7] 何欢浪,陈琳.纵向关联市场、资源税改革和中国稀土出口——对资源从量税和从价税实施效果的评估[J].财经研究,2017(7):95-106.He H L,Chen L.Vertical related markets,resource tax reform and the export of China’s rare earth:evaluation of implementation effect of volume-based and ad valorem tax of resources[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2017(7):95-106.
[8] Imholte D D,Nguyen R T,Vedantam A,Brown M,Iyer A,Smith B J,Collins J W,Anderson C G,O’Kelley B.An assessment of U.S.rare earth availability for supporting U.S.wind energy growth targets[J].Energy Policy,2018,113:294-305.
[9] Baldi L,Peri M,Vandone D.Clean energy industries and rare earth materials:Economic and financial issues[J].Energy Policy,2014,66:53-61.
[10] Smith Stegen K.Heavy rare earths,permanent magnets,and renewable energies:An imminent crisis[J].Energy Policy,2015,79:1-8.
[11] Schlinkert D,van den Boogaart K G.The development of the market for rare earth elements:Insights from economic theory[J].Resources Policy,2015,46:272-280.
[12] Barteková E,Kemp R.National strategies for securing a stable supply of rare earths in different world regions[J].Resources Policy,2016,49:153-164.
[13] Jamaludin H,Lahiri-Dutt K.Could lynas make a difference in the global political economy of rare earth elements in future?[J].Resources Policy,2017(53):267-273.
[14] Machacek E,Kalvig P.Assessing advanced rare earth element-bearing deposits for industrial demand in the EU[J].Resources Policy,2016(49):186-203.
[15] Hayes-Labruto L,Schillebeeckx S J D,Workman M,Shah N.Contrasting perspectives on China’s rare earths policies:Reframing the debate through a stakeholder lens[J].Energy Policy,2013,63:55-68.
[16] 边璐,张江朋,宋宇辰,范兆瑞.国际金属价格指数、广义需求与中国稀土产品价格——基于两市场协整视角下的多因素模型研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):641-652.Bian L,Zhang J P,Song Y C,Fan Z R.Foreign metals index,general requirement and prices of chinese rare earth products:Research on multi-factor model based on the perspective of co-integration of two markets [J].Resources Science,2014,36(3):641-652.
[17] Primiceri G.Time-varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy:A corrigendum[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2005,72(3):821-852.
[18] Nakajima J.Time-varying parameter var model with stochastic volatility:An overview of methodology and empirical applications[J].Monetary and Economic Studies,2011,29:107-142.
[19] Jebabli I,Arouri M,Teulon F.On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices:An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility[J].Energy Economics,2014,45:66-98.
[20] Lai H,Wang K.Relationship between the trading behavior of three institutional investors and Taiwan Stock Index futures returns[J].Economic Modelling,2014,41:156-165.
[21] Bekiros S,Gupta R,Paccagnini A.Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty[J].Economics Letters,2015,132:125-128.
[22] Gnimassoun B,Jo?ts M,Razafindrabe T.On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies:The case of Canada[J].International Economics,2017,152:63-78.
[23] Brown M,Eggert R.Simulating producer responses to selected Chinese rare earth policies[J].Resources Policy,2017.