服务贸易自由化程度对企业出口决策的影响探析
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摘要
文章采用三种指标衡量中国服务贸易自由化程度,运用2000~2007年中国制造业企业生产和贸易数据,全面考察中国服务贸易自由化对企业出口决策的影响。研究结果表明,服务贸易自由化显著提高了企业出口概率和出口密集度。而异质性分析结果则提示金融、分销、商业服务等新型服务贸易自由化的出口促进作用更大,同时外资企业、东部企业、高服务使用率企业以及高生产率企业在服务贸易自由化中受益更大。通过考察地区制度环境对服务贸易自由化与企业出口相关关系的影响,发现更为开放完善的地区制度环境强化了服务贸易自由化对企业出口的正向促进作用。此外,文章还引入生存分析模型,深入考察服务贸易自由化与企业出口持续期之间的因果效应。研究结果表明,服务贸易自由化显著延长了企业出口持续期。
By using the data of production and trade of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2000 to 2007,this paper uses three indicators to measure the degree of liberalization of China's service trade to examine the impact of China's service trade liberalization on the firms'export Behavior.The results show that the service liberalization increases the export probability and export intensity of enterprises.However,the results of heterogeneity analysis prompt us those modern service departments such as finance,distribution and business services have a greater effect,while foreign enterprises,eastern enterprises,high service-used enterprises and high-productivity enterprises benefit from service liberalization most.By examining the influence of institutional environment on the relationship between service liberalization and enterprises'export,we find that a more open and perfect institutional environment strengthens the positive role of service liberalization in export promotion.In addition,by introducing the survival analysis model,we also examine the causal effect between service liberalization and the export duration.The results show that service liberalization significantly prolongs the export duration of enterprises.
By using the data of production and trade of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 2000 to 2007,this paper uses three indicators to measure the degree of liberalization of China's service trade to examine the impact of China's service trade liberalization on the firms'export Behavior.The results show that the service liberalization increases the export probability and export intensity of enterprises.However,the results of heterogeneity analysis prompt us those modern service departments such as finance,distribution and business services have a greater effect,while foreign enterprises,eastern enterprises,high service-used enterprises and high-productivity enterprises benefit from service liberalization most.By examining the influence of institutional environment on the relationship between service liberalization and enterprises'export,we find that a more open and perfect institutional environment strengthens the positive role of service liberalization in export promotion.In addition,by introducing the survival analysis model,we also examine the causal effect between service liberalization and the export duration.The results show that service liberalization significantly prolongs the export duration of enterprises.
引文
[1]Araujo L,Mion G,Ornelas E..Institutions and export dynamics[J].Journal of International Economics,2016,98:2-20.
[2]Akerman A,Helpman E,Itskhoki O,et al..Sources of Wage Inequality[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(3):214-219.
[3]Amiti,M.,Konings,J..Trade liberalization,intermediate inputs and productivity:Evidence from Indonesia.American Economic Review,2007,97(5),1611-1638.
[4]Arnold J M,Javorcik B S,Mattoo A..Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms?:Evidence from the Czech Republic[J].Journal of International Economics,2011,85(1):136-146.
[5]Arnold J M,Javorcik B,Lipscomb M,et al..Services Reform and Manufacturing Performance:Evidence from India[J].The Economic Journal,2016,126(590):1-39.
[6]Bas M..Does services liberalization affect manufacturing firms'export performance?Evidence from India[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2014,42(3):569-589.
[7]Baggs J..Firm survival and exit in response to trade liberalization[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2005,38(4):1364-1383.
[8]Baggs J,Brander J A..Trade Liberalization,Profitability,and Financial Leverage[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2006,37(2):196-211.
[9]Barone G,Cingano F..Service Regulation and Growth:Evidence from OECD Countries[J].Economic Journal,2011,121(555):931-957.
[10]Beyer H,Rojas P,Vergara R..Trade liberalization and wage inequality[J].Journal of Development Economics,1999,59(1):103-123.
[11]Beverelli C,Fiorini M,Hoekman B..Services trade policy and manufacturing productivity:The role of institutions[J].Journal of International Economics,2017,104:166-182.
[12]Bertrand M,Schoar A,Thesmar D..Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure:Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985[J]The Journal of Finance.2004:597-628.
[13]Borchert,I.,Gootiiz,B.,Mattoo,A..Guide to the Services Trade Restrictions Database[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.6108,2012.
[14]Borrmann A,Busse M,Silke Neuhaus.Institutional Quality and the Gains from Trade[J].Kyklos,2006,59(3):345-368.
[15]Bustos P..Trade liberalization,exports,and technology upgrading:Evidence on the impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian firms[J].The American economic review,2011,101(1):304-340.
[16]Costantini J A,Melitz M J..The Dynamics of Firm Level Adjustment to Trade Liberalization[J].The Organization of Firms in A Global,unpublished manuscript,2007.
[17]Ethier,W..National and international returns to scale in the modern theory of international trade.American Economic Review,1982,72(3):389-405.
[18]Fernandes A M,Paunov C..Foreign direct investment in services and manufacturing productivity:Evidence for Chile[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):305-321.
[19]Freund C,Bolaky B..Trade,regulations,and income[J].Journal of Development Economics,2008,87(2):309-321.
[20]Helpman E,Itskhoki O,Muendler M A,et al..Trade and inequality:From theory to estimation[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2017,84(1):357-405.
[21]Hoekman B,Shepherd B..Services productivity,trade policy and manufacturing exports[J].The World Economy,2017,40(3):499-516.
[22]Levinsohn J,Petrin A..Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables[J].Review of Economic Studies,2003,70(2):317-342.
[23]Markusen J R..Trade in producer services and in other specialized intermediate inputs[J].The American Economic Review,1989:85-95.
[24]Melitz M J..The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity[J].Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[25]Nunn N..Relationship-specificity,incomplete contracts,and the pattern of trade[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2007,122(2):569-600.
[26]Nunn N,Trefler D.Domestic Institutions as a Source of Comparative Advantage[M].Handbook of International Economics.Elsevier B.V.2014:263-315.
[27]Pavcnik N..Trade Liberalization,Exit,and Productivity Improvements:Evidence from Chilean Plants[J].Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(1):245-276.
[28]Rodriguez,F.,Rodrik,D..Trade Policy and Economic Growth:A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence[J].NBER Macroeconomics Annual.MA:MIT Press,Cambridge,2001:261-338.
[29]Upward R,Wang Z,Zheng J..Weighing China's export basket:The domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2013:41(2):527-543.
[30]曹建明.中国服务贸易立法与服务贸易市场开放[J].国际经济法论丛,1998,1(00):123-138.
[31]陈雯,苗双有.中间品贸易自由化与中国制造业企业生产技术选择[J].经济研究,2016,51(08):72-85.
[32]陈勇兵,李燕,周世民.中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素[J].经济研究,2012,47(07):48-61.
[33]樊纲,王小鲁,宋恒鹏.中国市场化指数:各地区市场化相对进程报告[M].经济科学出版社,2009.
[34]江静,刘志彪,于明超.生产者服务业发展与制造业效率提升[J].世界经济,2007,8:52-62.
[35]蒋灵多,陈勇兵.出口企业的产品异质性与出口持续时间[J].世界经济,2015,38(07):3-26.
[36]刘斌,魏倩,吕越,祝坤福.制造业服务化与价值链升级[J].经济研究,2016,51(03):151-162.
[37]陆铭,陈钊.分割市场的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧地方保护?[J].经济研究,2009,44(03):42-52.
[38]牛宁.服务贸易壁垒的测量[D].华东师范大学,2007.
[39]毛其淋,盛斌.贸易自由化、企业异质性与出口动态——来自中国微观企业数据的证据[J].管理世界,2013,(03):48-65+68+66-67.
[40]毛其淋,许家云.中国对外直接投资促进抑或抑制了企业出口?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(09):3-21.
[41]毛其淋,盛斌.贸易自由化与中国制造业企业出口行为:“入世”是否促进了出口参与?[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(02):647-674.
[42]汪颖博,陈媛,徐小聪,徐阳.贸易自由化与多产品企业出口行为:以加入CAFTA为准自然实验[J].宏观经济研究,2017(02):63-76.
[43]田巍,余淼杰.企业出口强度与进口中间品贸易自由化:来自中国企业的实证研究[J].管理世界,2013(01):28-44.
[44]谭智,王翠竹,李冬阳.目的国制度质量与企业出口生存:来自中国的证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(08):87-101.
[45]许家云,毛其淋,胡鞍钢.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级:基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(03):52-75.
[46]余淼杰.中国的贸易自由化与制造业企业生产率[J].经济研究,2010,45(12):97-110.
[47]余淼杰,梁中华.贸易自由化与中国劳动收入份额——基于制造业贸易企业数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2014,(07):22-31.
[48]张艳,唐宜红,周默涵.服务贸易自由化是否提高了制造业企业生产效率[J].世界经济,2013(11):51-71.
[49]张杰,张培丽,黄泰岩.市场分割推动了中国企业出口吗?[J].经济研究,2010(8):29-41.
[50]周念利.中国服务业改革对制造业微观生产效率的影响测度及异质性考察——基于服务中间投入的视角[J].金融研究,2014(09):84-98.
[51]赵瑞丽,孙楚仁,陈勇兵.最低工资与企业出口持续时间[J].世界经济,2016,39(07):97-120.
(1)在本文指数测算评分过程,五个部门的权重分别为20%、10%、20%、30%、20%。
(1)需要说明的是,本文依据Borchert等(2012)的说明和Arnold等(2016)附件列出的详细服务贸易壁垒测算模板测算出2000~2007年的指数。其中,2001年以后的STRI指数的测算主要依据中国服务贸易具体减让承诺列表以及随后每年的对外贸易形势报告;而2001年及以前STRI指标的测算则主要依据曹建明(1998)、牛宁(2007)等相关文献。
(2)在计量回归中,我们采用1减去该服务行业的服务贸易限制指数表示服务业开放程度。
(1)东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、广西、海南。中部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南。
(1)在这里,我们采用张艳等(2013)的研究方法,将服务使用率(服务中间投入与总产出的比值)高于15%的制造业行业划为高服务投入使用率行业。详细划分过程请见张艳等(2013)的研究。
[2]Akerman A,Helpman E,Itskhoki O,et al..Sources of Wage Inequality[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(3):214-219.
[3]Amiti,M.,Konings,J..Trade liberalization,intermediate inputs and productivity:Evidence from Indonesia.American Economic Review,2007,97(5),1611-1638.
[4]Arnold J M,Javorcik B S,Mattoo A..Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms?:Evidence from the Czech Republic[J].Journal of International Economics,2011,85(1):136-146.
[5]Arnold J M,Javorcik B,Lipscomb M,et al..Services Reform and Manufacturing Performance:Evidence from India[J].The Economic Journal,2016,126(590):1-39.
[6]Bas M..Does services liberalization affect manufacturing firms'export performance?Evidence from India[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2014,42(3):569-589.
[7]Baggs J..Firm survival and exit in response to trade liberalization[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2005,38(4):1364-1383.
[8]Baggs J,Brander J A..Trade Liberalization,Profitability,and Financial Leverage[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2006,37(2):196-211.
[9]Barone G,Cingano F..Service Regulation and Growth:Evidence from OECD Countries[J].Economic Journal,2011,121(555):931-957.
[10]Beyer H,Rojas P,Vergara R..Trade liberalization and wage inequality[J].Journal of Development Economics,1999,59(1):103-123.
[11]Beverelli C,Fiorini M,Hoekman B..Services trade policy and manufacturing productivity:The role of institutions[J].Journal of International Economics,2017,104:166-182.
[12]Bertrand M,Schoar A,Thesmar D..Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure:Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985[J]The Journal of Finance.2004:597-628.
[13]Borchert,I.,Gootiiz,B.,Mattoo,A..Guide to the Services Trade Restrictions Database[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.6108,2012.
[14]Borrmann A,Busse M,Silke Neuhaus.Institutional Quality and the Gains from Trade[J].Kyklos,2006,59(3):345-368.
[15]Bustos P..Trade liberalization,exports,and technology upgrading:Evidence on the impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian firms[J].The American economic review,2011,101(1):304-340.
[16]Costantini J A,Melitz M J..The Dynamics of Firm Level Adjustment to Trade Liberalization[J].The Organization of Firms in A Global,unpublished manuscript,2007.
[17]Ethier,W..National and international returns to scale in the modern theory of international trade.American Economic Review,1982,72(3):389-405.
[18]Fernandes A M,Paunov C..Foreign direct investment in services and manufacturing productivity:Evidence for Chile[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):305-321.
[19]Freund C,Bolaky B..Trade,regulations,and income[J].Journal of Development Economics,2008,87(2):309-321.
[20]Helpman E,Itskhoki O,Muendler M A,et al..Trade and inequality:From theory to estimation[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2017,84(1):357-405.
[21]Hoekman B,Shepherd B..Services productivity,trade policy and manufacturing exports[J].The World Economy,2017,40(3):499-516.
[22]Levinsohn J,Petrin A..Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables[J].Review of Economic Studies,2003,70(2):317-342.
[23]Markusen J R..Trade in producer services and in other specialized intermediate inputs[J].The American Economic Review,1989:85-95.
[24]Melitz M J..The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity[J].Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[25]Nunn N..Relationship-specificity,incomplete contracts,and the pattern of trade[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2007,122(2):569-600.
[26]Nunn N,Trefler D.Domestic Institutions as a Source of Comparative Advantage[M].Handbook of International Economics.Elsevier B.V.2014:263-315.
[27]Pavcnik N..Trade Liberalization,Exit,and Productivity Improvements:Evidence from Chilean Plants[J].Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(1):245-276.
[28]Rodriguez,F.,Rodrik,D..Trade Policy and Economic Growth:A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence[J].NBER Macroeconomics Annual.MA:MIT Press,Cambridge,2001:261-338.
[29]Upward R,Wang Z,Zheng J..Weighing China's export basket:The domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2013:41(2):527-543.
[30]曹建明.中国服务贸易立法与服务贸易市场开放[J].国际经济法论丛,1998,1(00):123-138.
[31]陈雯,苗双有.中间品贸易自由化与中国制造业企业生产技术选择[J].经济研究,2016,51(08):72-85.
[32]陈勇兵,李燕,周世民.中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素[J].经济研究,2012,47(07):48-61.
[33]樊纲,王小鲁,宋恒鹏.中国市场化指数:各地区市场化相对进程报告[M].经济科学出版社,2009.
[34]江静,刘志彪,于明超.生产者服务业发展与制造业效率提升[J].世界经济,2007,8:52-62.
[35]蒋灵多,陈勇兵.出口企业的产品异质性与出口持续时间[J].世界经济,2015,38(07):3-26.
[36]刘斌,魏倩,吕越,祝坤福.制造业服务化与价值链升级[J].经济研究,2016,51(03):151-162.
[37]陆铭,陈钊.分割市场的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧地方保护?[J].经济研究,2009,44(03):42-52.
[38]牛宁.服务贸易壁垒的测量[D].华东师范大学,2007.
[39]毛其淋,盛斌.贸易自由化、企业异质性与出口动态——来自中国微观企业数据的证据[J].管理世界,2013,(03):48-65+68+66-67.
[40]毛其淋,许家云.中国对外直接投资促进抑或抑制了企业出口?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(09):3-21.
[41]毛其淋,盛斌.贸易自由化与中国制造业企业出口行为:“入世”是否促进了出口参与?[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(02):647-674.
[42]汪颖博,陈媛,徐小聪,徐阳.贸易自由化与多产品企业出口行为:以加入CAFTA为准自然实验[J].宏观经济研究,2017(02):63-76.
[43]田巍,余淼杰.企业出口强度与进口中间品贸易自由化:来自中国企业的实证研究[J].管理世界,2013(01):28-44.
[44]谭智,王翠竹,李冬阳.目的国制度质量与企业出口生存:来自中国的证据[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(08):87-101.
[45]许家云,毛其淋,胡鞍钢.中间品进口与企业出口产品质量升级:基于中国证据的研究[J].世界经济,2017,40(03):52-75.
[46]余淼杰.中国的贸易自由化与制造业企业生产率[J].经济研究,2010,45(12):97-110.
[47]余淼杰,梁中华.贸易自由化与中国劳动收入份额——基于制造业贸易企业数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2014,(07):22-31.
[48]张艳,唐宜红,周默涵.服务贸易自由化是否提高了制造业企业生产效率[J].世界经济,2013(11):51-71.
[49]张杰,张培丽,黄泰岩.市场分割推动了中国企业出口吗?[J].经济研究,2010(8):29-41.
[50]周念利.中国服务业改革对制造业微观生产效率的影响测度及异质性考察——基于服务中间投入的视角[J].金融研究,2014(09):84-98.
[51]赵瑞丽,孙楚仁,陈勇兵.最低工资与企业出口持续时间[J].世界经济,2016,39(07):97-120.
(1)在本文指数测算评分过程,五个部门的权重分别为20%、10%、20%、30%、20%。
(1)需要说明的是,本文依据Borchert等(2012)的说明和Arnold等(2016)附件列出的详细服务贸易壁垒测算模板测算出2000~2007年的指数。其中,2001年以后的STRI指数的测算主要依据中国服务贸易具体减让承诺列表以及随后每年的对外贸易形势报告;而2001年及以前STRI指标的测算则主要依据曹建明(1998)、牛宁(2007)等相关文献。
(2)在计量回归中,我们采用1减去该服务行业的服务贸易限制指数表示服务业开放程度。
(1)东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、广西、海南。中部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南。
(1)在这里,我们采用张艳等(2013)的研究方法,将服务使用率(服务中间投入与总产出的比值)高于15%的制造业行业划为高服务投入使用率行业。详细划分过程请见张艳等(2013)的研究。