基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的农业自然灾害对农户家庭福利的实证影响研究
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摘要
为了估计农业自然灾害对农户家庭福利的影响效应,基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据库调研数据,运用倾向得分匹配模型与广义倾向得分匹配法的剂量-反应函数模型,分别研究了农业自然灾害以及灾害数量变化对农户家庭福利的影响效果。结果表明:所有样本农户家庭的家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出以及家庭农业生产经营投资均遭受到了农业自然灾害的负面影响,且农业自然灾害分别在1%、5%、1%的显著性水平上使得农户家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出、家庭农业生产经营投资平均减少0.498万、0.143万、0.002万元,说明农业自然灾害不仅对农户家庭纯收入有显著的负面漏出效应,而且也对农户家庭的生活消费行为和农业生产经营的投资行为有明显的抑制效应,且农业自然灾害对农户家庭纯收入与家庭生活消费支出的负面影响相对较为强烈。随着农业自然灾害数量的不断增多,农户家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出与家庭农业生产经营投资均呈现出了不断下降的趋势,表明农业自然灾害强度与农户家庭福利的损失程度存在一致性。
In order to estimate the influence effect of agricultural natural disasters on peasant household welfare,based on the survey data of Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)database,the propensity score matching model and the dosis-response function model of the generalized tendency score matching method were used to study the influence effect of agricultural natural disaster on peasant household welfare.The results showed that the peasant household net income,household living consumption expenditure and household agricultural production and management investment of all the samples had all been negatively affected by the agricultural natural disaster.And the agricultural natural disaster significantly reduced peasant household net income by an average of 4.98 thousand yuan at the 1%level,the household living consumption expenditure by an average of 1.43 thousand yuan at the 5% level,and the household agricultural production and management investment by an average of 0.02 thousand yuan at the 1%level,which showed that the agricultural natural disaster not only had a significant negative leakage effect on household net income,but also had a significant inhibitory effect on household living consumption behavior and agricultural production and management investment behavior,and the negative effects of agricultural natural disasters on household net income and household consumption expenditure were relatively strong.With the increasing number of the agricultural natural disasters,the peasant household net income,household living consumption expenditure and household agricultural production and management investment have all shown a declining trend,which shows that the intensity of agricultural natural disasters is consistent with the loss degree of peasant household welfare.
In order to estimate the influence effect of agricultural natural disasters on peasant household welfare,based on the survey data of Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)database,the propensity score matching model and the dosis-response function model of the generalized tendency score matching method were used to study the influence effect of agricultural natural disaster on peasant household welfare.The results showed that the peasant household net income,household living consumption expenditure and household agricultural production and management investment of all the samples had all been negatively affected by the agricultural natural disaster.And the agricultural natural disaster significantly reduced peasant household net income by an average of 4.98 thousand yuan at the 1%level,the household living consumption expenditure by an average of 1.43 thousand yuan at the 5% level,and the household agricultural production and management investment by an average of 0.02 thousand yuan at the 1%level,which showed that the agricultural natural disaster not only had a significant negative leakage effect on household net income,but also had a significant inhibitory effect on household living consumption behavior and agricultural production and management investment behavior,and the negative effects of agricultural natural disasters on household net income and household consumption expenditure were relatively strong.With the increasing number of the agricultural natural disasters,the peasant household net income,household living consumption expenditure and household agricultural production and management investment have all shown a declining trend,which shows that the intensity of agricultural natural disasters is consistent with the loss degree of peasant household welfare.
引文
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[2] MEI W,XIE S P,PRIMEAU F,et al.Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures[J].Science Advances,2015,1(4):e1500014.
[3] KAHN M E.The death toll from natural disasters:The role of income,geography,and institutions[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,2005,87(2):271-284.
[4] BANU N.Disaster management in the five-year plans of bangladesh:An assessment[J].Springer India,2015:15-28.
[5] CARUSO G D.The legacy of natural disasters:The intergenerational impact of 100years of disasters in Latin America[J].Journal of Development Economics,2017,127:209-233.
[6]杨高举,王征兵,杨珽.自然灾害对农业生产和农民收入的冲击:中国1983-2003面板数据分析[C].中国生态经济学会年会论文集,2006.
[7]罗文映.自然灾害因素对中国农民收入影响的实证研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2012.
[8]杨光.自然灾害对中国农民收入的影响分析[D].长春:吉林财经大学,2015.
[9] COLE S,GINE X,TOBACMAN J,et al.Barriers to household risk management:Evidence from India[J].American Economic Journal Applied Economics,2013,5(1):104.
[10]陆铭,张爽,佐藤宏.市场化进程中社会资本还能够充当保险机制吗?中国农村家庭灾后消费的经验研究[J].世界经济文汇,2010(1):16-38.
[11]HALLEGATTE S,VOGT-SCHILB A,BANGALORE M,et al.Building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters[R].World Bank Report:Climate Change and Development Series,2016.
[12]ALSTON M,AKHTER B.Gender and food security in Bangladesh:The impact of climate change[J].Gender Place&Culture A Journal of Feminist Geography,2016(10):1-15.
[13]MOTTALEB K A,MOHANTY,HOANG H T K,et al.The effects of natural disasters on farm household income and expenditures:A study on rice farmers in Bangladesh[J].Agricultural Systems,2013,121(4):43-52.
[14]KLOMP J,HOOGEZAND B.Natural disasters and agricultural protection:A panel data analysis[J].World Development,2018,104(C):404-407.
[15]李后建.自然灾害冲击对农民创业行为的影响[J].中国人口科学,2016(2):105-115.
[16]吴迪,刘文明,舒坤良.吉林省自然灾害对种植业及农民收入的影响研究[J].东北农业科学,2016(3):104-108.
[17]WINSEMIUS H C,VELDKAMP T,WARD P J.Disaster risk,climate change,and poverty:Assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts[R].Policy Research Working Paper,2015.
[18]刘启振,王思明.自然灾害影响下的晚清中国[J].河北师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(3):5-19.
[19]夏支平.农村公共危机治理研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2011.
[20]李春侠.自治复归:灾后重建中的村庄治理[D].上海:华东师范大学,2015.
[21]DICARLO J,EPSTEIN K,MARSH R.Post-disaster agricultural transitions in Nepal[J].Ambio,2018(2):1-12.