摘要
在2016年3月,我国取消了玉米临时收储政策,并出台市场化收购+补贴的新政策。在此政策背景下,玉米的国内外价格趋于紧密。本文基于2010年1月20日-2017年12月29日玉米的五种日价格(国内现货价、国内期货价、进口到岸价、国际现货价和国际期货价)数据,运用Johansen协整检验及VEC模型分析玉米临时收储政策取消前后,国内外玉米价格之间传导效应和传导方向变化。结果表明:临储政策取消前,国内外玉米价格联系不紧密;临时收储政策取消后,国内外玉米价格间的联动性增强,国际玉米期货价格在国内外玉米价格传递上开始发挥着主导作用。
China began to become a net importer of corn in 2010, then in March 2016, China has canceled the temporary corn storage.In this policy context, the domestic and international corn price transmission effect will change how to pay close attention. Based on the data of the five daily prices(domestic spot price, domestic futures price, import CIF,international spot price and international futures price) of corn on January 20, 2010 to October 16, 2017,use the Johansen cointegration test And VEC model to analyze whether the conduction effect and conduction direction of maize prices at home and abroad have changed before and after the abolition of the temporary purchasing and storage policy of maize in China. The results show that the price of domestic and international corn is not close before the cancellation of the policy, and the linkage between the domestic and international corn prices has been strengthened after the temporary purchasing and storage policy is abolished. The international corn futures prices have played a leading role in the price transfer of maize at home and abroad.
引文
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