国内外玉米价格传导效应研究——基于玉米临储政策改革背景下的分析
|
摘要
在2016年3月,我国取消了玉米临时收储政策,并出台市场化收购+补贴的新政策。在此政策背景下,玉米的国内外价格趋于紧密。本文基于2010年1月20日-2017年12月29日玉米的五种日价格(国内现货价、国内期货价、进口到岸价、国际现货价和国际期货价)数据,运用Johansen协整检验及VEC模型分析玉米临时收储政策取消前后,国内外玉米价格之间传导效应和传导方向变化。结果表明:临储政策取消前,国内外玉米价格联系不紧密;临时收储政策取消后,国内外玉米价格间的联动性增强,国际玉米期货价格在国内外玉米价格传递上开始发挥着主导作用。
China began to become a net importer of corn in 2010, then in March 2016, China has canceled the temporary corn storage.In this policy context, the domestic and international corn price transmission effect will change how to pay close attention. Based on the data of the five daily prices(domestic spot price, domestic futures price, import CIF,international spot price and international futures price) of corn on January 20, 2010 to October 16, 2017,use the Johansen cointegration test And VEC model to analyze whether the conduction effect and conduction direction of maize prices at home and abroad have changed before and after the abolition of the temporary purchasing and storage policy of maize in China. The results show that the price of domestic and international corn is not close before the cancellation of the policy, and the linkage between the domestic and international corn prices has been strengthened after the temporary purchasing and storage policy is abolished. The international corn futures prices have played a leading role in the price transfer of maize at home and abroad.
China began to become a net importer of corn in 2010, then in March 2016, China has canceled the temporary corn storage.In this policy context, the domestic and international corn price transmission effect will change how to pay close attention. Based on the data of the five daily prices(domestic spot price, domestic futures price, import CIF,international spot price and international futures price) of corn on January 20, 2010 to October 16, 2017,use the Johansen cointegration test And VEC model to analyze whether the conduction effect and conduction direction of maize prices at home and abroad have changed before and after the abolition of the temporary purchasing and storage policy of maize in China. The results show that the price of domestic and international corn is not close before the cancellation of the policy, and the linkage between the domestic and international corn prices has been strengthened after the temporary purchasing and storage policy is abolished. The international corn futures prices have played a leading role in the price transfer of maize at home and abroad.
引文
[1]田彩云、郭心义.我国玉米期货市场发现价格功能的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2006(6).
[2]罗锋、牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应-基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6).
[3]吕捷、林宇洁.国际玉米价格波动特性及其对中国粮食安全影响[J].管理世界,2013(5).
[4]刘小童.我国玉米期货价格与现货价格关系研究[J].价格理论与实践,2013(8).
[5]文春玲.我国农产品与国际市场关联性研究[J].价格理论与实践,2014(3).
[6]Yan et al.Is Chinese or American maize price effective for trading and policy-making reference[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,2014,6(3).
[7]李朝鲜.我国玉米价格与国际市场的动态关联分析[J].价格理论与实践,2014(5).
[8]李光泗.国内外玉米价格传导效应实证研究[J].价格理论与实践,2016(11).
[9]刘艺卓、蔡海龙.中国不同市场环节价格传导研究[J].农业技术经济,2015(6).
[2]罗锋、牛宝俊.国际农产品价格波动对国内农产品价格的传递效应-基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2009(6).
[3]吕捷、林宇洁.国际玉米价格波动特性及其对中国粮食安全影响[J].管理世界,2013(5).
[4]刘小童.我国玉米期货价格与现货价格关系研究[J].价格理论与实践,2013(8).
[5]文春玲.我国农产品与国际市场关联性研究[J].价格理论与实践,2014(3).
[6]Yan et al.Is Chinese or American maize price effective for trading and policy-making reference[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,2014,6(3).
[7]李朝鲜.我国玉米价格与国际市场的动态关联分析[J].价格理论与实践,2014(5).
[8]李光泗.国内外玉米价格传导效应实证研究[J].价格理论与实践,2016(11).
[9]刘艺卓、蔡海龙.中国不同市场环节价格传导研究[J].农业技术经济,2015(6).