中国海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究
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摘要
全球变化综合风险取决于致灾因子的危险性与承灾体的暴露度和脆弱性的相互作用。鉴于我国海岸带和沿海地区的全球变化综合风险格局存在极大不确定性,包括多致灾因子的叠加影响、多承灾体的暴露度和脆弱性的动态变化等,亟需深入开展全球变化综合风险研究。研究气候变化背景下海平面变化与台风和风暴潮等极端气候事件的演变规律、区域性特征、叠加放大效应和未来变化趋势,阐明我国海岸带和沿海地区致灾因子的危险性分布特征及其对生态系统、渔业资源、港口建设和社会经济等承灾体的影响机理与成灾机制,以及承灾体脆弱性的量化及等级划分;研发多致灾因子—多承灾体综合风险评估及空间区划等关键技术,评估海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险,编制高分辨的海岸带和沿海地区致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的脆弱性及综合风险多尺度分布图。研究成果的应用与推广,将满足我国沿海地区应对气候变化、防灾减灾和社会安全的迫切需求,对维护我国沿海地区社会和谐稳定、保障国家安全具有重大意义。
The comprehensive risk of global change is a combined product of hazard,exposure and vulnerability. In view of the great uncertainties in the comprehensive risk pattern of coastal zones and coastland in China( such as the cascade effects of multiple hazards and the dynamic changes of exposure and vulnerability),there is an urgent need for comprehensive risk research. Special emphasis is on the following four aspects: 1) the evolution of sea level change and extreme weather-climate events( such as typhoon and storm surge) under global climate change,including regional characteristics,cascade and amplification effects,and future trends,illustrating the distribution characteristics of hazard indicators in coastal zones and coastland; 2) effects on the major exposures( i. e.,ecosystems,fishery resources,port construction and socio-economy),including quantization and classification of vulnerability assessment; 3) development of the key technologies of comprehensive risk assessment,considering both multi-hazards and portfolio of multi-exposures; and 4) assessment of the comprehensive risk of global changes in coastal zones and coastland in China,drawing high-resolution maps of hazards,vulnerability,and comprehensive risk. The pilot and scale-up applications of research results will meet the urgent needs of coastal areas in China to cope with climate change,disaster prevention and mitigation,and social security.
The comprehensive risk of global change is a combined product of hazard,exposure and vulnerability. In view of the great uncertainties in the comprehensive risk pattern of coastal zones and coastland in China( such as the cascade effects of multiple hazards and the dynamic changes of exposure and vulnerability),there is an urgent need for comprehensive risk research. Special emphasis is on the following four aspects: 1) the evolution of sea level change and extreme weather-climate events( such as typhoon and storm surge) under global climate change,including regional characteristics,cascade and amplification effects,and future trends,illustrating the distribution characteristics of hazard indicators in coastal zones and coastland; 2) effects on the major exposures( i. e.,ecosystems,fishery resources,port construction and socio-economy),including quantization and classification of vulnerability assessment; 3) development of the key technologies of comprehensive risk assessment,considering both multi-hazards and portfolio of multi-exposures; and 4) assessment of the comprehensive risk of global changes in coastal zones and coastland in China,drawing high-resolution maps of hazards,vulnerability,and comprehensive risk. The pilot and scale-up applications of research results will meet the urgent needs of coastal areas in China to cope with climate change,disaster prevention and mitigation,and social security.
引文
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[2]官文江,田思泉,朱江峰,等.渔业资源评估模型的研究现状与展望[J].中国水产科学,2013,20(5):1112—1120
[3]栗健,方伟华,张晓宁,等.基于多致灾因子相似的热带气旋检索方法研究:以风暴潮—海浪灾害预评估为例[J].海洋科学,2016,40(8):49
[4]史培军,李宁,叶谦,等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究[J].地球科学进展,2009,24(4):428—435
[5]CaiR,Tan H,Qi Q.Impacts of and adaptation to inter-decadal marine climate change in coastal China seas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36(11):3770—3780
[6]Cazenave A,Cozannet G L.Sea level rise and its coastal impacts[J].Earth's Future,2014,2(2):15—34
[7]Du X,Lin X.Conceptual model on regional natural disaster risk assessment[J].Procedia engineering,2012,45:96—100
[8]Füssel H M.Vulnerability:A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research[J].Global environmental change,2007,17(2):155—167
[9]Future Earth.Future Earth initial design:report of the transition team[R].Paris,FRA:International Council for Science(ICSU)[R/OL],2013 http://www.icsu.org/future-earth/media-centre/relevant_publications
[10]Hoegh-Guldberg O,Cai R S,Poloczanska E S,et al.The ocean.In:Field C.B.,V.R.Barrows,et al.(eds),Climate change2014:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability,Part B:Regional Aspects.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R],United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press,2014:1655—1731
[11]IPCC 2014.In:Stocker TF et al(eds)Summary for policymakers in climate change 2013:The physical science basis[R],2014,3—29
[12]Jones R N.An environmental risk assessment/management framework for climate change impact assessments[J].Natural hazards,2001,23(2):197—230
[13]Kates R W,Kasperson J X.Comparative risk analysis of technological hazards(a review)[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1983,80(22):7027—7038
[14]Neumann J E,Emanuel K,Ravela S,et al.Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US coasts:New economic estimates of impacts,adaptation,and benefits of mitigation policy[J].Climate Change,2015,129(1-2):337—349
[15]Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93(4):485—498
[16]Van Vuuren D P,Riahi K,Moss R,et al.A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities[J].Global Environmental Change,2012,22(1):21—35
[17]Woodruff J D,Irish J L,Camargo S J.Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise[J].Nature,2013,504(7478):44—52