基于云模型的公路桥梁施工安全风险评估研究
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摘要
针对桥梁施工安全风险评估中模糊性与随机性并存的特点,引入云模型理论,选取建设规模、地质条件等5项主要影响因素构成评估指标体系,计算各评估指标隶属于不同风险等级的云数字特征,通过离差最大化赋权法计算指标权重,结合正向云正态发生器,计算综合确定度并确定施工安全风险等级。运用该评估模型对工程实例进行分析,结果表明该模型是合理有效的。
In view of the coexistence of ambiguity and randomness in bridge construction safety risk assessment,the cloud model theory is introduced to establish a highway bridge construction safety risk assessment model.The five major influencing factors of construction scale,geological conditionsand other main influenced factorsare selected to form an evaluation index system.The cloud digital characteristics of each evaluation index belonging to different risk levels are calculated.The weight of the index is calculated by the dispersion maximization weighting method,combined with the forward cloud normal generator,the comprehensive certainty is calculated and the safety risk level of the construction is determined.The evaluation model is used to analyze the engineering examples.The results show that the model is reasonable and effective,and can provide guidance for other similar risk assessment problems analysis.
In view of the coexistence of ambiguity and randomness in bridge construction safety risk assessment,the cloud model theory is introduced to establish a highway bridge construction safety risk assessment model.The five major influencing factors of construction scale,geological conditionsand other main influenced factorsare selected to form an evaluation index system.The cloud digital characteristics of each evaluation index belonging to different risk levels are calculated.The weight of the index is calculated by the dispersion maximization weighting method,combined with the forward cloud normal generator,the comprehensive certainty is calculated and the safety risk level of the construction is determined.The evaluation model is used to analyze the engineering examples.The results show that the model is reasonable and effective,and can provide guidance for other similar risk assessment problems analysis.
引文
[1]常明.中小公路桥梁工程施工阶段的风险管理研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2017.
[2]刘庆昌.针对桥梁工程施工安全风险评估研究[D].济南:山东大学,2017.
[3]陈常松,卫毅.模糊综合评判法在斜拉桥施工风险评估中的应用[J].交通科学与工程,2017(3):43-49.
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[5]陆新鑫,徐秀丽,李雪红,等.基于肯特指数法的桥梁施工安全风险评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2013(6):165-171.
[6]陆瑜,唐旭,邹飞.基于云模型的爆破振动影响度评估研究[J].爆破,2018(3):166-171.
[7]杨文东,杨栋,谢全敏.基于云模型的边坡风险方法及其应用[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018(4):30-34.
[8]江迎.基于云模型和GIS/RS的坝堤溃决风险分析及灾害损失评估研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2012.
[9]张勇,石胜伟,何江达.基于云模型的隧洞围岩工程地质分类方法及应用[J].工程地质学报,2016(3):339-344.
[10]徐征捷,张友鹏,苏宏升.基于云模型的模糊综合评判法在风险评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2014(2):69-72.
[11]孟云伟.基于云模型的避险车道位置选择[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2017,41(5):725-729.
[12]吴贤国,吴克宝,沈梅芳,等.基于云模型的运营隧道结构健康安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016(5):73-79.
[13]郭清娥,苏兵.离差最大化时基于交叉评价的多属性决策方法[J].运筹与管理,2015(5):75-81.
[2]刘庆昌.针对桥梁工程施工安全风险评估研究[D].济南:山东大学,2017.
[3]陈常松,卫毅.模糊综合评判法在斜拉桥施工风险评估中的应用[J].交通科学与工程,2017(3):43-49.
[4]洪流,张人文,满先慧,等.基于WBS-RBS的桥梁工程施工安全风险评价[J].公路与汽运,2014(3):242-246.
[5]陆新鑫,徐秀丽,李雪红,等.基于肯特指数法的桥梁施工安全风险评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2013(6):165-171.
[6]陆瑜,唐旭,邹飞.基于云模型的爆破振动影响度评估研究[J].爆破,2018(3):166-171.
[7]杨文东,杨栋,谢全敏.基于云模型的边坡风险方法及其应用[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018(4):30-34.
[8]江迎.基于云模型和GIS/RS的坝堤溃决风险分析及灾害损失评估研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2012.
[9]张勇,石胜伟,何江达.基于云模型的隧洞围岩工程地质分类方法及应用[J].工程地质学报,2016(3):339-344.
[10]徐征捷,张友鹏,苏宏升.基于云模型的模糊综合评判法在风险评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2014(2):69-72.
[11]孟云伟.基于云模型的避险车道位置选择[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2017,41(5):725-729.
[12]吴贤国,吴克宝,沈梅芳,等.基于云模型的运营隧道结构健康安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016(5):73-79.
[13]郭清娥,苏兵.离差最大化时基于交叉评价的多属性决策方法[J].运筹与管理,2015(5):75-81.