1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析
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摘要
根据1980—2015年河南省及周边39个气象站点逐日观测数据,选取与主要粮食作物生育机理相关的气候指标,运用气候统计方法分析河南省主要粮食作物生育期内水热气候要素的时空变化。结合统计数据,运用面板非线性回归模型分析主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性。研究发现:(1)河南省冬小麦返青期最低气温和生育期平均气温均呈显著增加趋势,在空间上两者升温速率呈现从河南省中部向周边递减的特征。夏玉米生育期总日照时数呈明显减少趋势,其减少速度在豫中地区最快,在豫西南地区最慢。(2)从敏感效应来看,冬小麦和夏玉米产量分别对生育期平均气温和生育期总日照时数的敏感效应最强,对生育期总降水量的敏感效应均最弱。从敏感区看,冬小麦产量敏感区主要分布在豫北、豫西和豫南地区,夏玉米则集中在豫西和豫东地区。(3)冬小麦生育期平均气温突变后有利于除豫北以外共83.3%区域内产量的增加,返青期最低气温突变后有利于豫北和豫东共44.4%区域内产量的增加。夏玉米生育期总日照时数突变后对豫中和豫西共44.4%区域的产量增加有利。
Based on statistical agricultural data and daily meteorological data for 39 national-level meteorological stations in Henan province and surrounding areas from 1980 to 2015, we analyzed spatio-temporal changes in hydrothermal conditions during the growth stage of main grain crops.The sensitive effect of main crop yield to changes in climate factors was explored using nonlinear regression. We found that the regreening stage minimum temperature and mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat increased significantly: the rate of increase decreased from the center to outside Henan. The sunshine duration of the summer maize growth period decreased significantly, furthermore, central Henan was the fastest reduction area in sunshine duration while southwestern Henan had the slowest reduction. The yield of winter wheat and summer maize exhibited the largest sensitive effect to mean temperature and sunshine duration during the growth period, and both exhibited the smallest sensitive effect to precipitation during the growth period.However, the sensitive region of both caused by the precipitation during the growth period was the largest, accounting for 33.3% and 22.2% respectively. After change in climate factors, mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat was beneficial to the rise of winter wheat that grew in the area except for northern Henan, accounting for 83.3% of Henan. However, the regreening stage minimum temperature more easily augmented winter wheat growing in northern and eastern Henan, accounting for 44.4% of Henan. Sunshine duration in the growth stage of summer maize was more beneficial to increased summer maize that grew in central and western Henan,accounting for 44.4% of Henan.
Based on statistical agricultural data and daily meteorological data for 39 national-level meteorological stations in Henan province and surrounding areas from 1980 to 2015, we analyzed spatio-temporal changes in hydrothermal conditions during the growth stage of main grain crops.The sensitive effect of main crop yield to changes in climate factors was explored using nonlinear regression. We found that the regreening stage minimum temperature and mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat increased significantly: the rate of increase decreased from the center to outside Henan. The sunshine duration of the summer maize growth period decreased significantly, furthermore, central Henan was the fastest reduction area in sunshine duration while southwestern Henan had the slowest reduction. The yield of winter wheat and summer maize exhibited the largest sensitive effect to mean temperature and sunshine duration during the growth period, and both exhibited the smallest sensitive effect to precipitation during the growth period.However, the sensitive region of both caused by the precipitation during the growth period was the largest, accounting for 33.3% and 22.2% respectively. After change in climate factors, mean temperature in the growth stage of winter wheat was beneficial to the rise of winter wheat that grew in the area except for northern Henan, accounting for 83.3% of Henan. However, the regreening stage minimum temperature more easily augmented winter wheat growing in northern and eastern Henan, accounting for 44.4% of Henan. Sunshine duration in the growth stage of summer maize was more beneficial to increased summer maize that grew in central and western Henan,accounting for 44.4% of Henan.
引文
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[16]崔力,王春玲,李改琴,等.濮阳市夏玉米产量与气象因子的关系分析[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(16):341-344.[Cui L,Wang C,Li G,et al.The analysis of relationships between summer corn dutput and meteoro logica factors in Puyangcity[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2010,26(16):341-344.]
[17]成林,刘荣花,马志红.增温对河南省冬小麦产量的影响分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(4):854-859.[Lin C,Liu R H,Ma Z H.Influence of global warming on winter wheat yield in Henan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2011,19(4):854-859.]
[18]国家气象局.中国气象科学数据共享服务网[EB/OL].(2012-08-04)[2016-10-20].http://www.cma.gov.cn//.[National Meteorological Administration.China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System[EB/OL].(2012-08-04)[2016-10-20].http://www.cma.gov.cn//.]
[19]唐为安,田红,陈晓艺,等.气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(1):66-78.[Tang W A,Tian H,Chen X Y,et al.Response of winter wheat yield to climate change under global warming in Anhui Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):66-78.]
[20]李向东,张德奇,王汉芳,等.越冬前增温对小麦生长发育和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(3):839-846.[Li X D,Zhang D Q,Wang H F,et al.Impact of temperature increment before the over-wintering period on growth and development and grain yield of winter wheat[J].The Journal of Applied ecology,2015,26(3):839-846.]
[21]徐玲玲,吕厚荃,方利.气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米气候适宜度的影响[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):782-787.[Xu L L,Houquan Lv H Q,Fang L.Effect of climate change on the climate suitability of summer maize on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Resources Science,2014,36(4):782-787.]
[22]李德,景元书,祁宦.1980-2012年安徽淮北平原冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害风险分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(4):700-709.[Li D,Jing Y S,Qi H.An analysis of disaster risk for continuous cloudy-rainy weather during the filling stage of winter wheat on the Huaibei Plain,Anhui[J].Resources Science,2015,37(4):700-709.]
[23]河南省统计局.河南统计年鉴1981-2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1981-2016.[Statistics Bureau of Henan Province.Henan Statistical Yearbook 1981-2016[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,1981-2016.]
[2]贾敬敦.中国农业应对气候变化研究进展与对策[M].北京:中国农业科学技术出版社,2013.[Jia J D.Progress and Countermeasures of Agricultural Coping with Climate Change in China[M].Beijing:Agricultural science and Technology Press of China,2013.]
[3]Issahaku Z A,Maharjan K L.Crop substitution behavior among food crop farmers in Ghana:An efficient adaptation to climate change or costly stagnation in traditional agricultural production system?[J].Agricultural and Food Economics,2014,2(1):1-14.
[4]Lobell D B,Field C B.Global scale climate crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming[J].Environmental Research Letters,2007,2(1):014002.
[5]Lobell D B,Costa-Roberts J.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J].Science,2011,333(6042):616-620.
[6]史文娇,陶福禄,张朝.基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展[J].地理学报,2012,67(9):1213-1222.[Shi W,Tao F,Zhao Z.Identifying contributions of climate change to crop yields based on statistical models:a review[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(9):1213-1222.]
[7]朱珠,陶福禄,娄运生,等.江苏省水稻产量对气候变化的敏感性研究-基于县级和站点尺度[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1035-1043.[Zhu Z,Tao F,Lou Y,et al.Rice yield sensitivity to climate change in Jiangsu Province[J].Resources Science,2013,35(5):1035-1043.]
[8]谢云.中国粮食生产对气候资源波动响应的敏感性分析[J].资源科学,1999,21(6):13-17.[Xie Y.Analysis of sensitivity of crop yields to climate resource function in China[J].Resources Science,1999,21(6):13-17.]
[9]殷培红,方修琦,张学珍,等.中国粮食单产对气候变化的敏感性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):515-524.[Yin P,Fang X,Zhang X Z,et al.Identification of the susceptible regions to climate change impact on grain yield per unit area in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(5):515-524.]
[10]李辉,姚凤梅,张佳华,等.东北地区玉米气候产量变化及其对气候变化的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(4):423-428.[Hui L I,Yao F M,Zhang J H,et al.Analysis on climatic maize yield and its sensitivity to climate change in Northeast China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(4):423-428.]
[11]陈超,庞艳梅,张玉芳,等.四川冬小麦产量对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):127-136.[Chen C,Pang Y M,Zhang Y F,et al.Study on the sensitivity and vulnerability of winter wheat yield to climate change in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of nature resources,2017,32(1):127-136.]
[12]肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(4):430-438.[Xiao D P,Tao F L,Shen Y J,et al.Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(4):430-438.]
[13]耿婷,付伟,陈群,等.近20年河南省冬小麦生育期气候资源的时空变化及其适应性研究[J].麦类作物学报,2013,33(4):652-661.[Geng T,Wei F U,Chen Q,et al.Spatial-temporal Feature of Climatic Resources and Adaptation of Winter Wheat during Last20 Years in Henan Province[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(4):652-661.]
[14]刘凤伟.河南省粮食产量增长的影响因素研究-基于县级面板数据的实证分析[J].农业经济,2010,(3):40-42.[Liu F W.Study on the influencing factors of grain production in Henan Province:an empirical analysis based on panel data[J].Agricultural Economy,2010,(3):40-42.]
[15]吴芳,翟石艳,赵丹丹.气候变化对中国重要产粮区农民生计影响-以河南省为例[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(35):217-223.[Wu F,Zhai S Y,Zhao D D.Impact of climate change on farmers' livelihood in China's important grain-producing area-taking Henan Province as an example[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(35):217-223.]
[16]崔力,王春玲,李改琴,等.濮阳市夏玉米产量与气象因子的关系分析[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(16):341-344.[Cui L,Wang C,Li G,et al.The analysis of relationships between summer corn dutput and meteoro logica factors in Puyangcity[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2010,26(16):341-344.]
[17]成林,刘荣花,马志红.增温对河南省冬小麦产量的影响分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(4):854-859.[Lin C,Liu R H,Ma Z H.Influence of global warming on winter wheat yield in Henan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2011,19(4):854-859.]
[18]国家气象局.中国气象科学数据共享服务网[EB/OL].(2012-08-04)[2016-10-20].http://www.cma.gov.cn//.[National Meteorological Administration.China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System[EB/OL].(2012-08-04)[2016-10-20].http://www.cma.gov.cn//.]
[19]唐为安,田红,陈晓艺,等.气候变暖背景下安徽省冬小麦产量对气候要素变化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(1):66-78.[Tang W A,Tian H,Chen X Y,et al.Response of winter wheat yield to climate change under global warming in Anhui Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):66-78.]
[20]李向东,张德奇,王汉芳,等.越冬前增温对小麦生长发育和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(3):839-846.[Li X D,Zhang D Q,Wang H F,et al.Impact of temperature increment before the over-wintering period on growth and development and grain yield of winter wheat[J].The Journal of Applied ecology,2015,26(3):839-846.]
[21]徐玲玲,吕厚荃,方利.气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米气候适宜度的影响[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):782-787.[Xu L L,Houquan Lv H Q,Fang L.Effect of climate change on the climate suitability of summer maize on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Resources Science,2014,36(4):782-787.]
[22]李德,景元书,祁宦.1980-2012年安徽淮北平原冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害风险分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(4):700-709.[Li D,Jing Y S,Qi H.An analysis of disaster risk for continuous cloudy-rainy weather during the filling stage of winter wheat on the Huaibei Plain,Anhui[J].Resources Science,2015,37(4):700-709.]
[23]河南省统计局.河南统计年鉴1981-2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1981-2016.[Statistics Bureau of Henan Province.Henan Statistical Yearbook 1981-2016[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,1981-2016.]