1980～2014年中国生态脆弱区气候变化特征分析
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摘要
为了全面把握20世纪80年代以来中国生态脆弱区气候变化的特征,利用基于全国2000多个站点的格点化逐月资料,对中国典型生态脆弱区1980～2014年的日平均气温、日最高和最低气温、降水、相对湿度、风速和蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)中国生态脆弱区日平均气温、日最高和最低气温几乎都呈上升趋势;日平均气温增幅北方大于南方;北方生态脆弱区日平均气温、日最高和最低气温、南方生态脆弱区日最低气温的季节增幅多为春季最大,秋季或冬季最小。(2)全区平均降水变化趋势不明显;生态脆弱区降水距平百分率春季多为增长趋势,夏季多为减少趋势,秋、冬季和年北方多为增长趋势,南方多为减少趋势。(3)相对湿度以减少趋势为主,只有黄土高原南部脆弱区秋、冬季和干旱半干旱区脆弱区冬季相对湿度距平百分率的趋势为正,这几个正值区同时也是降水增长大值区。(4)风速基本为减少趋势,春季减少趋势最大。(5)全区平均蒸发皿蒸发量春、夏季和年为减少趋势,冬季为增长趋势;北方生态脆弱区蒸发皿蒸发量四季和年多呈减少趋势;南方生态脆弱区蒸发皿蒸发量春、夏季以减少趋势为主,秋、冬季和年呈增长趋势。
The climate change characteristics in ecological fragile zones in China since the 1980 s were analyzed using a gridded monthly meteorological dataset. The results were as follows:(1) The annual and seasonal mean values for daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures have risen in most of the study areas. The increase in daily mean temperature is greater in the northern ecologically fragile zones than in the south. The increase in seasonal mean values for daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures in the northern areas and daily minimum temperature in southern areas was largest in spring and smallest in autumn or winter.(2) Annual and seasonal precipitation, averaged over the whole area, showed no clear trend. Precipitation anomaly percentage increased in spring and decreased in summer in most of the study areas. The annual, autumn, and winter anomalies mostly increased in the north but decreased in the south.(3) Relative humidity was mostly on the decline, with positive trends found only in autumn and winter in the southern part of the Loess Plateau and in winter in the ecologically fragile zones in the arid and semiarid areas, which also showed a large precipitation growth trend.(4) Wind speed decreased in most areas, with the largest downward trend occurring in spring.(5) Pan evaporation averaged over the whole area decreased in spring, summer, and annual amount,but it increased in winter. Seasonal and annual pan evaporation decreased in most areas of the northern ecologically fragile zones. Pan evaporation decreased in most areas of the southern ecologically fragile zones during spring and summer, while it increased during autumn, winter, and annual amount.
The climate change characteristics in ecological fragile zones in China since the 1980 s were analyzed using a gridded monthly meteorological dataset. The results were as follows:(1) The annual and seasonal mean values for daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures have risen in most of the study areas. The increase in daily mean temperature is greater in the northern ecologically fragile zones than in the south. The increase in seasonal mean values for daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures in the northern areas and daily minimum temperature in southern areas was largest in spring and smallest in autumn or winter.(2) Annual and seasonal precipitation, averaged over the whole area, showed no clear trend. Precipitation anomaly percentage increased in spring and decreased in summer in most of the study areas. The annual, autumn, and winter anomalies mostly increased in the north but decreased in the south.(3) Relative humidity was mostly on the decline, with positive trends found only in autumn and winter in the southern part of the Loess Plateau and in winter in the ecologically fragile zones in the arid and semiarid areas, which also showed a large precipitation growth trend.(4) Wind speed decreased in most areas, with the largest downward trend occurring in spring.(5) Pan evaporation averaged over the whole area decreased in spring, summer, and annual amount,but it increased in winter. Seasonal and annual pan evaporation decreased in most areas of the northern ecologically fragile zones. Pan evaporation decreased in most areas of the southern ecologically fragile zones during spring and summer, while it increased during autumn, winter, and annual amount.
引文
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黄蕊,徐利岗,刘俊民.2013.中国西北干旱区气温时空变化特征[J].生态学报,33(13):4078-4089.Huang Rui,Xu Ligang,Liu Junmin.2013.Research on spatio-temporal change of temperature in the Northwest Arid Area[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica(in Chinese),33(13):4078-4089.doi:10.5846/stxb201301050030
黄荣辉,刘永,皇甫静亮,等.2014.20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化特征及其内动力成因[J].大气科学,38(4):627-644.Huang Ronghui,Liu Yong,Huangfu Jingliang,et al.2014.Characteristics and internal dynamical causes of the interdecadal variability of East Asian winter monsoon near the late 1990s[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),38(4):627-644.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13245
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焦洋,游庆龙,林厚博,等.2016.1979~2012年青藏高原地区地面气温时空分布特征[J].干旱区研究,33(2):283-291.Jiao Yang,You Qinglong,Lin Houbo,et al.2016.Spatiotemporal distribution of surface temperature over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to2012[J].Arid Zone Research(in Chinese),33(2):283-291.doi:10.13866/j.azr.2016.02.09
康世昌,张拥军,秦大河,等.2007.近期青藏高原长江源区急剧升温的冰芯证据[J].科学通报,52(4):457-462.Kang Shichang,Zhang Yongjun,Qin Dahe,et al.2007.Recent temperature increase recorded in an ice core in the source region of Yangtze River[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,52(6):825-831.doi:10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2007.04.014
Kendall M G.1975.Rank Correlation Methods[M].4th ed.London:Charles Griffin.
李爽,王羊,李双成.2009.中国近30年气候要素时空变化特征[J].地理研究,28(6):1593-1605.Li Shuang,Wang Yang,Li Shuangcheng.2009.Spatio-temporal patterns of climatic change in China in recent 30 years[J].Geographical Research(in Chinese),28(6):1593-1605.doi:10.11821/yj2009060015
李志,赵西宁.2013.1961-2009年黄土高原气象要素的时空变化分析[J].自然资源学报,28(2):287-299.Li Zhi,Zhao Xining.2013.Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological elements on the Loess Plateau during 1961-2009[J].Journal of Natural Resources(in Chinese),28(2):287-299.doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.02.010
李瀚,韩琳,贾志军,等.2016.中国西南地区地面平均相对湿度变化分析[J].高原山地气象研究,36(4):42-47.Li Han,Han Lin,Jia Zhijun,et al.2016.The changes of the average relative humidity in Southwest China[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research(in Chinese),36(4):42-47.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184·2016.04.007
廖小罕,施建成.2014.全球生态环境遥感监测2013年度报告[M].北京:科学出版社,1-316.Liao Xiaohan,Shi Jiancheng.2014.Global Ecological Environment Remote Sensing Monitoring 2013Annual Report(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1-316.
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刘敏,沈彦俊,曾燕,等.2009.近50年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因[J].地理学报,64(3):259-269.Liu Min,Shen Yanjun,Zeng Yan,et al.2009.Changing trend of pan evaporation and its cause over the past 50 years in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),64(3):259-269.doi:10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.03.001
Mann H B.1945.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,13(3):245-259.doi:10.2307/1907187
彭飞,孙国栋.2017.1982~1999年中国地区叶面积指数变化及其与气候变化的关系[J].气候与环境研究,22(2):162-176.Peng Fei,Sun Guodong.2017.Variation of leaf area index in China from 1982to 1999 and its relationship with climate change[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),22(2):162-176.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.16061
祁添垚,张强,王月,等.2015.1960~2005年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学,35(12):1599-1606.Qi Tianyao,Zhang Qiang,Wang Yue,et al.2015.Spatiotemporal patterns of pan evaporation in 1960-2005 in China:Changing properties and possible causes[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),35(12):1599-1606.doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.012.1599
任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.2005.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,63(6):942-956.Ren Guoyu,Guo Jun,Xu Mingzhi,et al.2005.Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),63(6):942-956.doi:10.11676/qxxb2005.090
Sen P K.1968.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,63(324):1379-1389.doi:10.2307/2285891
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