中国山区耕地利用边际化过程机理——基于成本和收益变化的分析（英文）
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摘要
Farmland marginalization has become the main trend of land-use change in the mountainous areas of China. Using annual survey data of major agricultural production costs and earnings at national and provincial levels in China, this study aims to analyze the reasons and mechanism behind farmland marginalization in mountainous areas. We find that farmers on plains are able to reduce their per mu labor input effectively through intensive use of agricultural machinery, which has minimized the impact of the increase in labor price. However, it is extremely challenging for farmers in mountainous areas to use the same method owing to the rough terrain. Thus, per laborer farming area in these areas has increased relatively slowly, causing a widening gap in agricultural labor productivity between the two regions. With the rapid rise in labor costs since 2003, the marginalization of cultivated land in mountainous areas is evident. In 2013, the net profit of agricultural production in mountainous China fell below zero. Since 2000, the land-use and land-cover change in these areas was characterized by the reduction of farmland area, reforestation, and the enhancement of the NDVI value. The high correlation between the NDVI change rate and the ratio of change in farmland(r = –0.70) and forest(r = 0.91) in mountainous areas at provincial level further attests to the trend of farmland marginalization there. Finally, we summarize the mechanism of such marginalization against the backdrop of the rapid increase in the opportunity cost of farming and the rapid fall of agricultural labor forces in mountainous areas. This study contributes to a deep understanding of the development process of farmland marginalization and abandonment as well as forest transition in Chinese mountainous areas.
Farmland marginalization has become the main trend of land-use change in the mountainous areas of China. Using annual survey data of major agricultural production costs and earnings at national and provincial levels in China, this study aims to analyze the reasons and mechanism behind farmland marginalization in mountainous areas. We find that farmers on plains are able to reduce their per mu labor input effectively through intensive use of agricultural machinery, which has minimized the impact of the increase in labor price. However, it is extremely challenging for farmers in mountainous areas to use the same method owing to the rough terrain. Thus, per laborer farming area in these areas has increased relatively slowly, causing a widening gap in agricultural labor productivity between the two regions. With the rapid rise in labor costs since 2003, the marginalization of cultivated land in mountainous areas is evident. In 2013, the net profit of agricultural production in mountainous China fell below zero. Since 2000, the land-use and land-cover change in these areas was characterized by the reduction of farmland area, reforestation, and the enhancement of the NDVI value. The high correlation between the NDVI change rate and the ratio of change in farmland(r = –0.70) and forest(r = 0.91) in mountainous areas at provincial level further attests to the trend of farmland marginalization there. Finally, we summarize the mechanism of such marginalization against the backdrop of the rapid increase in the opportunity cost of farming and the rapid fall of agricultural labor forces in mountainous areas. This study contributes to a deep understanding of the development process of farmland marginalization and abandonment as well as forest transition in Chinese mountainous areas.
Farmland marginalization has become the main trend of land-use change in the mountainous areas of China. Using annual survey data of major agricultural production costs and earnings at national and provincial levels in China, this study aims to analyze the reasons and mechanism behind farmland marginalization in mountainous areas. We find that farmers on plains are able to reduce their per mu labor input effectively through intensive use of agricultural machinery, which has minimized the impact of the increase in labor price. However, it is extremely challenging for farmers in mountainous areas to use the same method owing to the rough terrain. Thus, per laborer farming area in these areas has increased relatively slowly, causing a widening gap in agricultural labor productivity between the two regions. With the rapid rise in labor costs since 2003, the marginalization of cultivated land in mountainous areas is evident. In 2013, the net profit of agricultural production in mountainous China fell below zero. Since 2000, the land-use and land-cover change in these areas was characterized by the reduction of farmland area, reforestation, and the enhancement of the NDVI value. The high correlation between the NDVI change rate and the ratio of change in farmland(r = –0.70) and forest(r = 0.91) in mountainous areas at provincial level further attests to the trend of farmland marginalization there. Finally, we summarize the mechanism of such marginalization against the backdrop of the rapid increase in the opportunity cost of farming and the rapid fall of agricultural labor forces in mountainous areas. This study contributes to a deep understanding of the development process of farmland marginalization and abandonment as well as forest transition in Chinese mountainous areas.
引文
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Alcantara C,Kuemmerle T,Prishchepov A V et al.,2012.Mapping abandoned agriculture with multi-temporal MODIS satellite data.Remote Sensing of Environment,124:334-347.
Chen Y,Li X,Tian Y et al.,2009.Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,19(5):545-556.
Chuang Y,2014.Investigation and thinking on the cropland abandonment in Jingning County.Agricultural Development and Equipment,(8):21-22.(in Chinese)
Doorn A M V,Bakker M M,2007.The destination of arable land in a marginal agricultural landscape in South Portugal:An exploration of land use change determinants.Landscape Ecology,22(7):1073-1087.
Fang C,Du Y,Wang M,2009.Migration and labor mobility in China.New York:United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report Office.
Gan N,Yin Z,Tan Z,2015.China Household Finance Survey Report 2014.Chengdu:Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press.(in Chinese)
Gellrich M,Baur P,Koch B et al.,2007.Agricultural land abandonment and natural forest re-growth in the Swiss mountains:A spatially explicit economic analysis.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,118(1-4):93-108.
He W,Yan J,Zhou H et al.,2016.The micro-mechanism of forest transition:A case study in the mountainous areas of Chongqing.Journal of Natural Resources,31(1):102-113.(in Chinese)
Huang J,Li L,2009.Dilemma of idling arable land in mountainous areas and its causes and countermeasures:Take Huitong County as an example.Journal of UESTC(Social Sciences Edition),11(4):11-14.(in Chinese)
Jiang X,Zeng H,2009.Quantifying mountain regions of China:A case study in Sichuan.Mountain Research,27(1):24-32.(in Chinese)
Kozak J,2003.Forest cover change in the Western Carpathians in the past 180 Years:A case study in the Orawa Region in Poland.Mountain Research and Development,23(4):369-375.
Lambin E F,Meyfroid P,2010.Land use transitions:Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change.Land Use Policy,27(2):108-118.
Li J,2013.Study on abandonment of cultivated land in mountain areas based on labor emigration[D].Chongqing:Southwest University.(in Chinese)
Li S,Li X,2017a.Global understanding of farmland abandonment:A review and prospects.Journal of Geographical Sciences,27(9):1123-1150.
Li S,Li X,Xin L et al.,2017b.Extent and distribution of cropland abandonment in Chinese mountainous areas.Resources Science,39(10):1801-1811.(in Chinese)
Li S,Sun Z,Tan M et al.,2016.Effects of rural-urban migration on vegetation greenness in fragile areas:A case study of Inner Mongolia in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,70(3):1622-1631.
Li X,Zhao Y,2011.Forest transition,agricultural land marginalization and ecological restoration.China Population,Resources and Environment,21(10):91-95.(in Chinese)
Li Z,Yan J,Hua X et al.,2014.Factors influencing the cultivated land abandonment of households of different types:A case study of 12 typical villages in Chongqing Municipality.Geographical Research,33(4):721-734.(in Chinese)
Liu C,Li X,2005.The character and diagnostic criterion for marginiastion of the arable land.Progress in Geography,24(2):106-113.(in Chinese)
Lu F,2012.Wage trends among Chinese migrant workers:1979-2010.Social Sciences in China,(7):47-67.(in Chinese)
Luo P,Tang Y,Kang H et al.,2015.Empirical study on factors influencing farmers’willingness to cropland abandonment in Hunan Province.Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,27(8):1494-1498.(in Chinese)
Luo S,2008.Causes and countermeasures of farmland abandonment in Yongding County.Fujian Agricultural Science and Technology,(3):88-89.(in Chinese)
MacDonald D,Crabtree J R,Wiesinger G et al.,2000.Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe:Environmental consequences and policy response.Journal of Environmental Management,59(1):47-69.
Meyfroidt P,Lambin E F,2011.Global forest transition prospects for an end to deforestation.The Annual Review of Environment and Resources,36:343-371.
Queiroz C,Beilin R,Folke C et al.,2014.Farmland abandonment:Threat or opportunity for biodiversity conservation?A global review.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,12(5):288-296.
Rudel T K,Coomes O T,Emilio Moranc F et al.,2005.Forest transitions:Towards a global understanding of land use change.Global Environmental Change,15(1):23-31.
Shi T,Li X,Xin L,2016.Analysis of farmland abandonment at parcel level:A case study in the mountainous areas of China.Sustainability,8(988):1-19.
Shi T,Xu X,2016.Extraction and validation of abandoned farmland parcel in typical counties of Chongqing.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,32(24):261-267.(in Chinese)
Strijker D,2005.Marginal lands in Europe:Causes of decline.Basic and Applied Ecology,6(2):99-106.
Tian Y,Li X,Ma G et al.,2010.Influences of labor emigration from agriculture on the production abandonment of cultivated land in ecological sensitive areas.China Land Science,24(7):4-9.(in Chinese)
Tian Y,Li X,Xin L et al.,2009.Impacts of the rise of labor opportunity cost on agricultural land use changes:Acase study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Journal of Natural Resources,24(3):369-377.(in Chinese)
Wang X,Li X,Tan M et al.,2015.Remote sensing monitoring of changes in winter wheat area in North China Plain from 2001 to 2011.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,31(8):190-199.(in Chinese)
Xin L,Li X,Tan M et al.,2011.The rise of ordinary labor wage and its effect on agricultural land use in present China.Geographical Research,30(8):1391-1400.(in Chinese)
Xu H,Zhu H,2015.Spatial change of China’s grain production based on geographical division of natural factors during 1990-2010.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(4):582-590.(in Chinese)
Xu L,2010.How to solve the problem of farmland abandonment in the process of urbanization:A case study in Sichuan Province.Rural Economics,(3):21-24.(in Chinese)
Xu X,Liu J,Zhang Z et al.,2015.Time Series of Land Ecosystem Classification Dataset of China in Five-Year Increments(1990-2010).Global Change Research Data Publishing&Repository.http://geodoi.ac.cn/WebEn/doi.aspx?Id=177.
Xu X,Liu J,Zhang Z et al.,2017.A time series land ecosystem classification dataset of China in five-year increments(1990-2010).Journal of Global Change Data&Discovery,1(1):52-59.(in Chinese)
Yan J,Yang Z,Li Z et al.,2016.Drivers of cropland abandonment in mountainous areas:A household decision model on farming scale in Southwest China.Land Use Policy,57:459-469.
Yan,J,Zhang Y,Hua X et al.,2016.An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth:Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Geographical Sciences,26(4):484-500.
Yi M,2014.Reasons and countermeasures of cultivated land abandonment in Songxi County.Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,(18):330-331.(in Chinese)
Zhang B,Yang Q,Yan Y et al.,2011.Characteristics and reasons of different households’farming abandonment behavior in the process of rapid urbanization based on a survey from 540 households in 10 counties of Chongqing municipality.Resources Science,33(11):2047-2054.(in Chinese)
Zhang X,Yang J,Wang S,2011a.China has reached the Lewis turning point.China Economic Review,22(4):542-554.(in Chinese)
Zhang Y,Li X,Song W,2014a.Determinants of cropland abandonment at the parcel,household and village levels in mountain areas of China:A multi-level analysis.Land Use Policy,41:186-192.
Zhang Y,Li X,Song W et al.,2014b.Land abandonment under rural restructuring in China explained from a cost-benefit perspective.Journal of Rural Studies,47(47):524-532.
Zhao J,2012.Analysis of farmlands abandonment in the context of peasants working out.Journal of Anhui Agricultura Sciences,40(29):14518-14520.(in Chinese)
Zhao Y,Zhang M,Li X et al.,2016.farmland marginalization and policy implications in mountainous areas:Acase study of Renhuai City,Guizhou.Journal of Resources&Ecology,7(1):61-67.
Zhu H,Li X,Xin L,2007.Intensity change in cultivated land use in China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,22(6):907-915.(in Chinese)
Alcantara C,Kuemmerle T,Prishchepov A V et al.,2012.Mapping abandoned agriculture with multi-temporal MODIS satellite data.Remote Sensing of Environment,124:334-347.
Chen Y,Li X,Tian Y et al.,2009.Structural change of agricultural land use intensity and its regional disparity in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,19(5):545-556.
Chuang Y,2014.Investigation and thinking on the cropland abandonment in Jingning County.Agricultural Development and Equipment,(8):21-22.(in Chinese)
Doorn A M V,Bakker M M,2007.The destination of arable land in a marginal agricultural landscape in South Portugal:An exploration of land use change determinants.Landscape Ecology,22(7):1073-1087.
Fang C,Du Y,Wang M,2009.Migration and labor mobility in China.New York:United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report Office.
Gan N,Yin Z,Tan Z,2015.China Household Finance Survey Report 2014.Chengdu:Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press.(in Chinese)
Gellrich M,Baur P,Koch B et al.,2007.Agricultural land abandonment and natural forest re-growth in the Swiss mountains:A spatially explicit economic analysis.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,118(1-4):93-108.
He W,Yan J,Zhou H et al.,2016.The micro-mechanism of forest transition:A case study in the mountainous areas of Chongqing.Journal of Natural Resources,31(1):102-113.(in Chinese)
Huang J,Li L,2009.Dilemma of idling arable land in mountainous areas and its causes and countermeasures:Take Huitong County as an example.Journal of UESTC(Social Sciences Edition),11(4):11-14.(in Chinese)
Jiang X,Zeng H,2009.Quantifying mountain regions of China:A case study in Sichuan.Mountain Research,27(1):24-32.(in Chinese)
Kozak J,2003.Forest cover change in the Western Carpathians in the past 180 Years:A case study in the Orawa Region in Poland.Mountain Research and Development,23(4):369-375.
Lambin E F,Meyfroid P,2010.Land use transitions:Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change.Land Use Policy,27(2):108-118.
Li J,2013.Study on abandonment of cultivated land in mountain areas based on labor emigration[D].Chongqing:Southwest University.(in Chinese)
Li S,Li X,2017a.Global understanding of farmland abandonment:A review and prospects.Journal of Geographical Sciences,27(9):1123-1150.
Li S,Li X,Xin L et al.,2017b.Extent and distribution of cropland abandonment in Chinese mountainous areas.Resources Science,39(10):1801-1811.(in Chinese)
Li S,Sun Z,Tan M et al.,2016.Effects of rural-urban migration on vegetation greenness in fragile areas:A case study of Inner Mongolia in China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,70(3):1622-1631.
Li X,Zhao Y,2011.Forest transition,agricultural land marginalization and ecological restoration.China Population,Resources and Environment,21(10):91-95.(in Chinese)
Li Z,Yan J,Hua X et al.,2014.Factors influencing the cultivated land abandonment of households of different types:A case study of 12 typical villages in Chongqing Municipality.Geographical Research,33(4):721-734.(in Chinese)
Liu C,Li X,2005.The character and diagnostic criterion for marginiastion of the arable land.Progress in Geography,24(2):106-113.(in Chinese)
Lu F,2012.Wage trends among Chinese migrant workers:1979-2010.Social Sciences in China,(7):47-67.(in Chinese)
Luo P,Tang Y,Kang H et al.,2015.Empirical study on factors influencing farmers’willingness to cropland abandonment in Hunan Province.Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,27(8):1494-1498.(in Chinese)
Luo S,2008.Causes and countermeasures of farmland abandonment in Yongding County.Fujian Agricultural Science and Technology,(3):88-89.(in Chinese)
MacDonald D,Crabtree J R,Wiesinger G et al.,2000.Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe:Environmental consequences and policy response.Journal of Environmental Management,59(1):47-69.
Meyfroidt P,Lambin E F,2011.Global forest transition prospects for an end to deforestation.The Annual Review of Environment and Resources,36:343-371.
Queiroz C,Beilin R,Folke C et al.,2014.Farmland abandonment:Threat or opportunity for biodiversity conservation?A global review.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,12(5):288-296.
Rudel T K,Coomes O T,Emilio Moranc F et al.,2005.Forest transitions:Towards a global understanding of land use change.Global Environmental Change,15(1):23-31.
Shi T,Li X,Xin L,2016.Analysis of farmland abandonment at parcel level:A case study in the mountainous areas of China.Sustainability,8(988):1-19.
Shi T,Xu X,2016.Extraction and validation of abandoned farmland parcel in typical counties of Chongqing.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,32(24):261-267.(in Chinese)
Strijker D,2005.Marginal lands in Europe:Causes of decline.Basic and Applied Ecology,6(2):99-106.
Tian Y,Li X,Ma G et al.,2010.Influences of labor emigration from agriculture on the production abandonment of cultivated land in ecological sensitive areas.China Land Science,24(7):4-9.(in Chinese)
Tian Y,Li X,Xin L et al.,2009.Impacts of the rise of labor opportunity cost on agricultural land use changes:Acase study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Journal of Natural Resources,24(3):369-377.(in Chinese)
Wang X,Li X,Tan M et al.,2015.Remote sensing monitoring of changes in winter wheat area in North China Plain from 2001 to 2011.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,31(8):190-199.(in Chinese)
Xin L,Li X,Tan M et al.,2011.The rise of ordinary labor wage and its effect on agricultural land use in present China.Geographical Research,30(8):1391-1400.(in Chinese)
Xu H,Zhu H,2015.Spatial change of China’s grain production based on geographical division of natural factors during 1990-2010.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(4):582-590.(in Chinese)
Xu L,2010.How to solve the problem of farmland abandonment in the process of urbanization:A case study in Sichuan Province.Rural Economics,(3):21-24.(in Chinese)
Xu X,Liu J,Zhang Z et al.,2015.Time Series of Land Ecosystem Classification Dataset of China in Five-Year Increments(1990-2010).Global Change Research Data Publishing&Repository.http://geodoi.ac.cn/WebEn/doi.aspx?Id=177.
Xu X,Liu J,Zhang Z et al.,2017.A time series land ecosystem classification dataset of China in five-year increments(1990-2010).Journal of Global Change Data&Discovery,1(1):52-59.(in Chinese)
Yan J,Yang Z,Li Z et al.,2016.Drivers of cropland abandonment in mountainous areas:A household decision model on farming scale in Southwest China.Land Use Policy,57:459-469.
Yan,J,Zhang Y,Hua X et al.,2016.An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth:Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Geographical Sciences,26(4):484-500.
Yi M,2014.Reasons and countermeasures of cultivated land abandonment in Songxi County.Modern Agricultural Science and Technology,(18):330-331.(in Chinese)
Zhang B,Yang Q,Yan Y et al.,2011.Characteristics and reasons of different households’farming abandonment behavior in the process of rapid urbanization based on a survey from 540 households in 10 counties of Chongqing municipality.Resources Science,33(11):2047-2054.(in Chinese)
Zhang X,Yang J,Wang S,2011a.China has reached the Lewis turning point.China Economic Review,22(4):542-554.(in Chinese)
Zhang Y,Li X,Song W,2014a.Determinants of cropland abandonment at the parcel,household and village levels in mountain areas of China:A multi-level analysis.Land Use Policy,41:186-192.
Zhang Y,Li X,Song W et al.,2014b.Land abandonment under rural restructuring in China explained from a cost-benefit perspective.Journal of Rural Studies,47(47):524-532.
Zhao J,2012.Analysis of farmlands abandonment in the context of peasants working out.Journal of Anhui Agricultura Sciences,40(29):14518-14520.(in Chinese)
Zhao Y,Zhang M,Li X et al.,2016.farmland marginalization and policy implications in mountainous areas:Acase study of Renhuai City,Guizhou.Journal of Resources&Ecology,7(1):61-67.
Zhu H,Li X,Xin L,2007.Intensity change in cultivated land use in China and its policy implications.Journal of Natural Resources,22(6):907-915.(in Chinese)