大都市区土地利用与土地生态安全关系的计量分析——以深圳市为例
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摘要
本文基于土地利用与土地生态安全的理论,结合2000-2015年深圳市土地利用程度指数与土地生态安全指数的序列数据,采用协整分析对深圳市土地利用与土地生态安全的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:土地利用与土地生态安全之间存在长期均衡关系、短期波动关系和单向因果关系。从长期来看,土地利用程度指数提高能够促进土地生态安全指数提高;从短期来看,土地生态安全指数受自身波动的影响较大,受土地利用程度指数的影响较小;土地利用程度指数提高是土地生态安全指数提高的直接原因,土地利用对土地生态安全的影响较为显著。
Based on the theoretical analysis of land use and land ecological security, this paper combines the data of land use degree and land ecological security in Shenzhen from 2000 to2015, and uses cointegration analysis to empirically study the measurement relationship between land use and land ecological security in Shenzhen. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, short-term fluctuation relationship and one-way causal relationship between land use and land ecological security. In the long run, the increase in land use index can promote the improvement of land ecological security index; in the short term, the land ecological security index is greatly affected by its own fluctuations, and is less affected by the land use degree index; the land use degree index is improved. It is the direct cause of the improvement of the land ecological security index, and the impact of land use on land ecological security is more significant.
Based on the theoretical analysis of land use and land ecological security, this paper combines the data of land use degree and land ecological security in Shenzhen from 2000 to2015, and uses cointegration analysis to empirically study the measurement relationship between land use and land ecological security in Shenzhen. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, short-term fluctuation relationship and one-way causal relationship between land use and land ecological security. In the long run, the increase in land use index can promote the improvement of land ecological security index; in the short term, the land ecological security index is greatly affected by its own fluctuations, and is less affected by the land use degree index; the land use degree index is improved. It is the direct cause of the improvement of the land ecological security index, and the impact of land use on land ecological security is more significant.
引文
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[6]范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(09):19-27.
[7]任国平,刘黎明,管青春.基于变结构协整检验的都市农业景观演变阶段分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,(12):249-260.
[8]李春燕,南灵.陕西省土地生态安全动态评价及障碍因子诊断[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(4):72-81.
[9]杨小燕,赵兴国,崔文芳,等.欠发达地区产业结构变动对生态足迹的影响——基于云南省的案例实证分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(01):167-172.
[2]孙丕苓,杨海娟,刘庆果.南水北调重要水源地的土地生态安全动态研究——以陕西省商洛市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(09):1520-1530.
[3] Leopole A. Wilderness as a land laboratory[J]. Living Wilderness,1941(July):3.
[4] Mark Lawrence Schrad. Threat level green:Conceding ecology for security in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006,16(4).
[5] Marull J, Pino J, Tello E, et al. Social metabolism, landscape change and land-use planning in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region[J]. Land Use Policy, 2010, 27(2):497-510.
[6]范胜龙,杨玉珍,陈训争,等.基于PSR和无偏GM(1,1)模型的福建省耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].中国土地科学,2016,30(09):19-27.
[7]任国平,刘黎明,管青春.基于变结构协整检验的都市农业景观演变阶段分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,(12):249-260.
[8]李春燕,南灵.陕西省土地生态安全动态评价及障碍因子诊断[J].中国土地科学,2015,29(4):72-81.
[9]杨小燕,赵兴国,崔文芳,等.欠发达地区产业结构变动对生态足迹的影响——基于云南省的案例实证分析[J].经济地理,2013,33(01):167-172.