2018年夏季海洋大气特征及对我国气候的影响
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摘要
为更好地了解2018年夏季(6-8月)我国主要气候异常特征及成因,本文利用我国气象要素站点资料、再分析大气环流资料和全球海温数据分析了2018年夏季我国降水和气温的异常特征、东亚大气环流特征及海温对我国气候的影响。结果显示2018年夏季全国平均降水量较常年同期偏多9. 6%,我国中东部地区降水呈现"南北多、中间少"的分布特征,北方和华南大部降水较常年同期偏多、长江中下游降水明显偏少。降水的上述异常特征受到东亚副热带和中高纬大气环流的共同影响。2018年夏季东亚副热带高空急流和西太平洋副热带高压位置都明显偏北,东亚沿岸由南至北为"负-正-负"的高度距平分布,呈现出"东亚-太平洋型"遥相关负位相的特征,菲律宾附近对流层低层大气维持异常的气旋式环流,东亚副热带夏季风异常偏强。同时,欧亚中高纬度大气呈现"两槽一脊"的异常高度分布特征。在副热带和中高纬大气环流的这种配置下,我国北方地区以异常偏南风为主,有利于暖湿气流的输送,降水偏多;华南地区在偏强的热带对流活动影响下,降水也总体偏多;而长江中下游地区则以明显的辐散下沉运动为主,降水偏少。从外强迫因子来看,2017年10月至2018年4月发生的La Nina事件对东亚夏季风偏强及我国降水"南北多、中间少"的异常特征起到了重要作用。
The anomalous climate features in China during the summer(JJA) of 2018, corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies in East Asia and possible impacts from the ocean are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the summer(JJA) of 2018, the average precipitation in China is 9. 6% more than average. The precipitation in North and South China is more than normal while the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley is less than average. The atmospheric circulation in summer exhibits a typical feature of strong East Asian summer monsoon. The East Asian subtropical jet and the Northwest Pacific subtropical high are both significantly more northward located than average. In the lower troposphere, a cyclonic circulation dominates the area near the Philippines. At the same time,the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation over Eurasia mainly exhibits a zonal feature. Under the combined impacts of the subtropical and mid-high latitude circulation, the transportation of water vapor to North and Northwest China is strengthened and more precipitation is induced in these regions. The precipitation in South China is also increased because of the strengthened tropical convective activity near South China Sea. However, in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley,anomalous divergence and subsidence is observed and less precipitation is caused. In addition, it is also revealed that the La Nina event from October 2017 to April 2018 exerted a significant impact on the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and the summer precipitation in China.
The anomalous climate features in China during the summer(JJA) of 2018, corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies in East Asia and possible impacts from the ocean are analyzed in this paper. The results show that in the summer(JJA) of 2018, the average precipitation in China is 9. 6% more than average. The precipitation in North and South China is more than normal while the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley is less than average. The atmospheric circulation in summer exhibits a typical feature of strong East Asian summer monsoon. The East Asian subtropical jet and the Northwest Pacific subtropical high are both significantly more northward located than average. In the lower troposphere, a cyclonic circulation dominates the area near the Philippines. At the same time,the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation over Eurasia mainly exhibits a zonal feature. Under the combined impacts of the subtropical and mid-high latitude circulation, the transportation of water vapor to North and Northwest China is strengthened and more precipitation is induced in these regions. The precipitation in South China is also increased because of the strengthened tropical convective activity near South China Sea. However, in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley,anomalous divergence and subsidence is observed and less precipitation is caused. In addition, it is also revealed that the La Nina event from October 2017 to April 2018 exerted a significant impact on the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and the summer precipitation in China.
引文
陈丽娟,袁媛,杨明珠,等,2013.海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展[J].应用气象学报,24(5):521-532. Chen L J,Yuan Y,Yang M Z, et al,2013. A review of physical mechanisms of the global SSTA impact on EASM[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 24(5):521-532(in Chinese).
封国林,赵俊虎,支蓉,等,2013.动力-统计客观定量化汛期降水预测研究新进展[J].应用气象学报,17(1):1-9. Feng G L,Zhao J H,Zhi R,et al,2013. Recent progress on the objective and quantifiable forecast of summer precipitation based on dynamical-statistical method[J].J Appl Meteor Sci, 17(1):1-9(in Chinese).
冯明,王家宝,熊守全,2000. 1998年长江大洪水与大气环流和海温异常分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,9(1):112-117. Feng M,Wang J B,Xiong S Q,2000. Analysis on the abnormality of general circulation and sea temperature in relation to the flood water of Yangtze River in 1998[J]. Res Environ Yangtze Basian,9(1):112-117(in Chinese).
高辉,王永光,2007. ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,65(1):131-137. Gao H,Wang Y G,2007. On the weakening relationship between summer precipitation in China and ENSO[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,65(1):131-137(in Chinese).
高荣,宋连春,钟海玲,2018. 2016年汛期中国降水极端特征及其与1998年对比[J].气象,44(5):699-703. Gao R,Song L C,Zhong H L,2018. Characteristics of extreme precipitation in China during the 2016 flood season and comparison with the 1998 situation[J]. Meteor Mon,44(5):699-703(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等,2006.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,30(5):730-743. Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, et al, 2006. Interdecadal variations of drought and flooding disasters in China and their association with the East Asian climate system[J]. Chinese J Atmos Sci,30(5):730-743(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,陈文,丁一汇,等,2003.关于季风动力学以及季风与ENSO循环相互作用的研究[J].大气科学,27(4):484-502. HuangR H, Chen W,Ding Y II, et al, 2003. Studies on the monsoon dynamics and the interaction between monsoon and ENSO cycle[J]. Chinese J Atmos Sci,27(4):484-502(in Chinese).
李崇银,黄荣辉,丑纪范,等,2009.我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究[M].北京:气象出版社:187. Li C Y,Huang R II,Chou J F,et al,2009. Research on the Weather and Climate Disasters with High Impact in China and the Countermeasures[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:187(in Chinese).
李维京,1999. 1998年大气环流异常及其对中国气候异常的影响[J].气象,25(4):20-25. Li W J, 1999. General atmospheric circulation anomaly in 1998 and their impact on climate anomaly in China[J]. Meteor Mon,25(4):20-25(in Chinese).
刘芸芸,李维京,艾子兑秀,等,2012.月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用[J].应用气象学报,23(4):414-423. Liu Y Y,Li W J,Ai W X,et al.2012. Reconstruction and application of the monthly western Pacific subtropical high indices[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,23(4):414-423(in Chinese).
任芝花,余予,邹凤玲,等,2012.部分地面要素历史基础气象资料质量检测[J].应用气象学报,23(6):739-747. Ren Z II,Yu Y,Zou F L,et al.2012. Quality detection of surface historical basic meteorological data[J].J Appl Meteor Sci, 23(6):739-747(in Chinese).
孙建华,赵思雄,2003. 1998年夏季长江流域梅雨期环流演变的特殊性探讨[J].气候与环境研究,8(3):291-306. Sun J II,Zhao S X,2003. A study of special circulation during Meiyu season of the Yangtze River Basin in 1998[J]. Clima Environ Res,8(3):291-306(in Chinese).
王东阡,王艳姣,崔童,等,2016. 2015年夏季气候异常特征及其成因简析[J].气象,42(1):115-121. Wang D Q,Wang Y J,Cui T,et al,2016. Analysis on climate anomalies and causations in summer 2015[J]. Meteor Mon,42(1):115-121(in Chinese).
王永光,郑志海,2018. 2017年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析[J].气象,44(4):565-571. Wang Y G,Zheng Z II,2018. Precursory signal analysis of summer rainfall prediction in China in2017[J]. Meteor Mon,44(4):565-571(in Chinese).
徐良炎,2003.淮河流域暴雨频繁洪涝严重;江南华南酷热少于伏旱发展[J].气象,29(10):62-63. Xu L Y,2003. Severe flooding in Huaihe River Valley; Intense heat and drought in Jiangnan and Huanan[J]. Meteor Mon,29(10):62-63(in Chinese).
袁媛,高辉,柳艳菊,2017. 2016年夏季我国东部降水异常特征及成因简析[J].气象,43(1):115-121. Yuan Y,Gao H,Liu Y J,2017. Analysis of the characteristics and causes of precipitation anomalies over eastern China in the summer of 2016[J]. Meteor Mon,43(1):115-121(in Chinese).
翟盘茂,余荣,郭艳君,等,2016. 2015/2016年强厄尔尼诺过程及其对全球和中国气候的主要影响[J].气象学报,74(3):309-321.Zhai P M, Yu R, Guo Y J, et al, 2016. The strong El Nino in2015/2016 and its dominant impacts on global and China's climate[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,74(3):309-321(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,1998a.亚洲中高纬度环流对东亚夏季降水的影响[J].气象学报,56(2):199-211. Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,1998a. Influence of Asian mid-high latitude circulation on East Asian summer rainfall[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,56(2):199-211(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,1998b.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水[J].应用气象学报,9(S1):17-23. Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,1998b. Tropical and subtropical monsoon over East Asia and its influence of the rainfall over eastern China in summer[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 9(S1):17-23(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭,2003.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,61(5):559-568. Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,Chen L T,2003. The inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,61(5):559-568(in Chinese).
郑志海,王永光,2018. 2017年夏季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响[J].气象,44(1):199-205. Zheng Z H,Wang Y G,2018. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characteristics in summer 2017 and its impact on weather and climate in China[J]. Meteor Mon,44(1):199-205(in Chinese).
祝从文,何金海,吴国雄,2000.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,58(4):391-402. Zhu C W,IIe J H,Wu G X,2000. East Asian monsoon index and its inter-annual relationship with large scale thermal dynamic circulation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,58(4):391-402(in Chinese).
Donat M G,Lowry A L,Alexander L V,et al,2016. More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions[J]. Nature Climate Change,6(5):508-513.
Gill A E,1980. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J]. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 106(449):447-462. DOI:10.1002/qj. 49710644905.
Huang R H,Wu Y F,1989. The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanisms[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,6(1):21-32.
Kalney E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al,1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Kistler R,Kalnay E,Collins W,et al,2001. The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis:monthly means CD ROM and documentation[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,82(2):247-268.
Reynolds R W,Rayner N A,Smith T M,et al,2002. An improved in Situ and satellite SST analysis for climate[J]. J Climate, 15(13):1609-1625.
Wang B,Wu R,Fu X,2000. Pacific-East Asia teleconnection:how does ENSO affect East Asian climate[J]. J Climate, 13(9):1517-1536. DOI:10. 1175/1520-0442.
Zhang R II,Sumi A,Kimoto M,1996. Impact of El Nino on the East Asian monsoon:a diagnostic study of the'86/87 and'91/92events[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan,74(1):49-62.
封国林,赵俊虎,支蓉,等,2013.动力-统计客观定量化汛期降水预测研究新进展[J].应用气象学报,17(1):1-9. Feng G L,Zhao J H,Zhi R,et al,2013. Recent progress on the objective and quantifiable forecast of summer precipitation based on dynamical-statistical method[J].J Appl Meteor Sci, 17(1):1-9(in Chinese).
冯明,王家宝,熊守全,2000. 1998年长江大洪水与大气环流和海温异常分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,9(1):112-117. Feng M,Wang J B,Xiong S Q,2000. Analysis on the abnormality of general circulation and sea temperature in relation to the flood water of Yangtze River in 1998[J]. Res Environ Yangtze Basian,9(1):112-117(in Chinese).
高辉,王永光,2007. ENSO对中国夏季降水可预测性变化的研究[J].气象学报,65(1):131-137. Gao H,Wang Y G,2007. On the weakening relationship between summer precipitation in China and ENSO[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,65(1):131-137(in Chinese).
高荣,宋连春,钟海玲,2018. 2016年汛期中国降水极端特征及其与1998年对比[J].气象,44(5):699-703. Gao R,Song L C,Zhong H L,2018. Characteristics of extreme precipitation in China during the 2016 flood season and comparison with the 1998 situation[J]. Meteor Mon,44(5):699-703(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等,2006.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,30(5):730-743. Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, et al, 2006. Interdecadal variations of drought and flooding disasters in China and their association with the East Asian climate system[J]. Chinese J Atmos Sci,30(5):730-743(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,陈文,丁一汇,等,2003.关于季风动力学以及季风与ENSO循环相互作用的研究[J].大气科学,27(4):484-502. HuangR H, Chen W,Ding Y II, et al, 2003. Studies on the monsoon dynamics and the interaction between monsoon and ENSO cycle[J]. Chinese J Atmos Sci,27(4):484-502(in Chinese).
李崇银,黄荣辉,丑纪范,等,2009.我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究[M].北京:气象出版社:187. Li C Y,Huang R II,Chou J F,et al,2009. Research on the Weather and Climate Disasters with High Impact in China and the Countermeasures[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:187(in Chinese).
李维京,1999. 1998年大气环流异常及其对中国气候异常的影响[J].气象,25(4):20-25. Li W J, 1999. General atmospheric circulation anomaly in 1998 and their impact on climate anomaly in China[J]. Meteor Mon,25(4):20-25(in Chinese).
刘芸芸,李维京,艾子兑秀,等,2012.月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用[J].应用气象学报,23(4):414-423. Liu Y Y,Li W J,Ai W X,et al.2012. Reconstruction and application of the monthly western Pacific subtropical high indices[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,23(4):414-423(in Chinese).
任芝花,余予,邹凤玲,等,2012.部分地面要素历史基础气象资料质量检测[J].应用气象学报,23(6):739-747. Ren Z II,Yu Y,Zou F L,et al.2012. Quality detection of surface historical basic meteorological data[J].J Appl Meteor Sci, 23(6):739-747(in Chinese).
孙建华,赵思雄,2003. 1998年夏季长江流域梅雨期环流演变的特殊性探讨[J].气候与环境研究,8(3):291-306. Sun J II,Zhao S X,2003. A study of special circulation during Meiyu season of the Yangtze River Basin in 1998[J]. Clima Environ Res,8(3):291-306(in Chinese).
王东阡,王艳姣,崔童,等,2016. 2015年夏季气候异常特征及其成因简析[J].气象,42(1):115-121. Wang D Q,Wang Y J,Cui T,et al,2016. Analysis on climate anomalies and causations in summer 2015[J]. Meteor Mon,42(1):115-121(in Chinese).
王永光,郑志海,2018. 2017年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析[J].气象,44(4):565-571. Wang Y G,Zheng Z II,2018. Precursory signal analysis of summer rainfall prediction in China in2017[J]. Meteor Mon,44(4):565-571(in Chinese).
徐良炎,2003.淮河流域暴雨频繁洪涝严重;江南华南酷热少于伏旱发展[J].气象,29(10):62-63. Xu L Y,2003. Severe flooding in Huaihe River Valley; Intense heat and drought in Jiangnan and Huanan[J]. Meteor Mon,29(10):62-63(in Chinese).
袁媛,高辉,柳艳菊,2017. 2016年夏季我国东部降水异常特征及成因简析[J].气象,43(1):115-121. Yuan Y,Gao H,Liu Y J,2017. Analysis of the characteristics and causes of precipitation anomalies over eastern China in the summer of 2016[J]. Meteor Mon,43(1):115-121(in Chinese).
翟盘茂,余荣,郭艳君,等,2016. 2015/2016年强厄尔尼诺过程及其对全球和中国气候的主要影响[J].气象学报,74(3):309-321.Zhai P M, Yu R, Guo Y J, et al, 2016. The strong El Nino in2015/2016 and its dominant impacts on global and China's climate[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,74(3):309-321(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,1998a.亚洲中高纬度环流对东亚夏季降水的影响[J].气象学报,56(2):199-211. Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,1998a. Influence of Asian mid-high latitude circulation on East Asian summer rainfall[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,56(2):199-211(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,1998b.夏季东亚热带和副热带季风与中国东部汛期降水[J].应用气象学报,9(S1):17-23. Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,1998b. Tropical and subtropical monsoon over East Asia and its influence of the rainfall over eastern China in summer[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 9(S1):17-23(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭,2003.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流[J].气象学报,61(5):559-568. Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,Chen L T,2003. The inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica,61(5):559-568(in Chinese).
郑志海,王永光,2018. 2017年夏季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响[J].气象,44(1):199-205. Zheng Z H,Wang Y G,2018. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characteristics in summer 2017 and its impact on weather and climate in China[J]. Meteor Mon,44(1):199-205(in Chinese).
祝从文,何金海,吴国雄,2000.东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系[J].气象学报,58(4):391-402. Zhu C W,IIe J H,Wu G X,2000. East Asian monsoon index and its inter-annual relationship with large scale thermal dynamic circulation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,58(4):391-402(in Chinese).
Donat M G,Lowry A L,Alexander L V,et al,2016. More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions[J]. Nature Climate Change,6(5):508-513.
Gill A E,1980. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J]. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 106(449):447-462. DOI:10.1002/qj. 49710644905.
Huang R H,Wu Y F,1989. The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanisms[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,6(1):21-32.
Kalney E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al,1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Kistler R,Kalnay E,Collins W,et al,2001. The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis:monthly means CD ROM and documentation[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,82(2):247-268.
Reynolds R W,Rayner N A,Smith T M,et al,2002. An improved in Situ and satellite SST analysis for climate[J]. J Climate, 15(13):1609-1625.
Wang B,Wu R,Fu X,2000. Pacific-East Asia teleconnection:how does ENSO affect East Asian climate[J]. J Climate, 13(9):1517-1536. DOI:10. 1175/1520-0442.
Zhang R II,Sumi A,Kimoto M,1996. Impact of El Nino on the East Asian monsoon:a diagnostic study of the'86/87 and'91/92events[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan,74(1):49-62.