汛期西南涡暴雨的数值模拟研究
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摘要
利用西南区域数值预报模式系统SWCWARMS,结合全国汛期高空加密观测资料,对2013年6月29—30日的一次西南涡暴雨过程进行数值模拟和敏感性试验。结果表明,与控制试验相比,同化试验模拟的降雨与实况更为接近,并成功模拟出四川东部的强降雨中心,对于西南涡的模拟,同化试验西南涡出现时间更早,强度更强。并且,通过两组试验初值差异对比发现,同化试验初值在四川盆地对流层中低层表现出更强的低压,更强的涡度以及更强的旋转风扰动,四川盆地西部边坡也存在更强的上升气流,这都有利于西南涡的发生、发展。另外,同化汛期高空加密观测资料对强降雨中心单站的预报改进也较明显。因此,加强汛期加密气象观测,有利于揭示西南涡的发生、发展及其降雨天气影响,也有助于提升数值预报业务技术水平。
A simulation and sensitivity test of a rainstorm caused by the Southwest China Vortex(SWCV) from29 to 30 June 2013 was done based on the intensive observation during flood period,using the Southwest CenterWRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System(SWCWARMS). The results showed that compared with the control experiment,the distribution of rainfall in assimilation experiment was more similar with the actual precipitation and the assimilation experiment successfully simulated the heavy rainfall center in eastern Sichuan. In vortex simulation,it exhibited earlier generation of SWCV and also its stronger vorticity. Meanwhile,seen from the differences of two experiments,the lower pressure,stronger vorticity and larger rotational wind turbulence could be figured out at the initial values in the assimilation experiment at the middle-lowtroposphere in Sichuan Basin.There was a stronger upward motion,which promoted the generation and development of SWCV. In addition,assimilating intensive observation during flood period obviously improved the rainfall forecast of single station.Therefore,intensify meteorological observation during flood period is beneficial to reveal the SWCV generation,development and rainfall effects,which also can enhance the operational skill of numerical weather prediction.
A simulation and sensitivity test of a rainstorm caused by the Southwest China Vortex(SWCV) from29 to 30 June 2013 was done based on the intensive observation during flood period,using the Southwest CenterWRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System(SWCWARMS). The results showed that compared with the control experiment,the distribution of rainfall in assimilation experiment was more similar with the actual precipitation and the assimilation experiment successfully simulated the heavy rainfall center in eastern Sichuan. In vortex simulation,it exhibited earlier generation of SWCV and also its stronger vorticity. Meanwhile,seen from the differences of two experiments,the lower pressure,stronger vorticity and larger rotational wind turbulence could be figured out at the initial values in the assimilation experiment at the middle-lowtroposphere in Sichuan Basin.There was a stronger upward motion,which promoted the generation and development of SWCV. In addition,assimilating intensive observation during flood period obviously improved the rainfall forecast of single station.Therefore,intensify meteorological observation during flood period is beneficial to reveal the SWCV generation,development and rainfall effects,which also can enhance the operational skill of numerical weather prediction.
引文
Cheng X L,Li Y Q,Xu L,2016.An analysis of an extreme rainstorm caused by the interaction of the Tibetan Plateau vortex and the southw est China vortex from an intensive observation[J].M eteorology and Atmospheric Physics,128(3):375-376.
Kuo Y H,Cheng L S,Bao J W,1988.Numerical simulation of the1981 Sichuan flood.Part I:Evolution of a mesoscale southw est vortex[J].M onthly Weather Review,116(12):2481-2504.
Shen R J,Reiter E R,Bresch J F,1986.Numerical simulation of the development of vortices over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].M eteorology and Atmospheric Physics,35:70-95.
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郝丽萍,周瑾,康岚,2016.西南涡暴雨天气过程分析和数值模拟试验[J].高原气象,35(5):1182-1190.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00046.
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罗四维,1992.青藏高原及其邻近地区几类天气系统的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,205.
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宋雯雯,李国平,2016.两类涡度矢量对四川盆地一次暴雨过程的分析应用[J].高原气象,35(6):1464-1475.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00115.
覃月凤,顾建峰,吴钲,等,2015.雷达资料同化频次对一次西南涡暴雨的影响试验[J].高原气象,34(4):963-972.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00050.
王晖,隆霄,温晓培,等,2017.2012年宁夏“7·29”大暴雨过程的数值模拟研究[J].高原气象,36(1):268-281.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00017.
王智,高坤,翟国庆,2003.一次与西南低涡相联系的低空急流的数值研究[J].大气科学,27(1):75-85.
邬惠峰,高坤,2002.一次低涡东移机制的分析[J].浙江大学学报,29(6):707-719.
吴望一,2009.中国大百科全书:物理学[M].中国大百科全书出版社,205.
许威杰,张耀存,2017.凝结潜热加热与对流反馈对一次高原低涡过程影响的数值模拟[J].高原气象,36(3):763-775.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00061.
叶笃正,高由禧,1979.青藏高原气象学[M].北京:科学出版社,115-118.
章基嘉,朱抱真,朱福康,等,1988.青藏高原气象学进展[M].北京:科学出版社,268.
赵大军,江玉华,李莹,2011.一次西南低涡暴雨过程的诊断分析与数值模拟[J].高原气象,30(5):1158-1169.
Kuo Y H,Cheng L S,Bao J W,1988.Numerical simulation of the1981 Sichuan flood.Part I:Evolution of a mesoscale southw est vortex[J].M onthly Weather Review,116(12):2481-2504.
Shen R J,Reiter E R,Bresch J F,1986.Numerical simulation of the development of vortices over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].M eteorology and Atmospheric Physics,35:70-95.
卜玉康,琚建华,先泽进,等,1993.西南涡大气边界层结构的数值模拟[J].云南大学学报,15(4):360-366.
郝丽萍,周瑾,康岚,2016.西南涡暴雨天气过程分析和数值模拟试验[J].高原气象,35(5):1182-1190.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00046.
姜勇强,张维桓,周祖刚,等,2004.2000年7月西南涡暴雨过程的分析和数值模拟[J].高原气象,23(1):55-61.
卢敬华,1986.西南低涡概论[M].北京:气象出版社,270.
卢萍,李旭,李英,等,2016.空间加密探空观测资料对西南低涡暴雨天气过程数值模拟的影响[J].大气科学,40(4):730-742.
卢萍,李英,2015.西南涡加密探空资料对模式初值及西南涡路径的影响[J].高原山地气象研究,35(2):1-6.
罗四维,1992.青藏高原及其邻近地区几类天气系统的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,205.
母灵,李国平,2014.复杂地形对西南低涡及其暴雨的影响研究[D].成都信息工程学院,6:1-54.
宋雯雯,李国平,2016.两类涡度矢量对四川盆地一次暴雨过程的分析应用[J].高原气象,35(6):1464-1475.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00115.
覃月凤,顾建峰,吴钲,等,2015.雷达资料同化频次对一次西南涡暴雨的影响试验[J].高原气象,34(4):963-972.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00050.
王晖,隆霄,温晓培,等,2017.2012年宁夏“7·29”大暴雨过程的数值模拟研究[J].高原气象,36(1):268-281.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00017.
王智,高坤,翟国庆,2003.一次与西南低涡相联系的低空急流的数值研究[J].大气科学,27(1):75-85.
邬惠峰,高坤,2002.一次低涡东移机制的分析[J].浙江大学学报,29(6):707-719.
吴望一,2009.中国大百科全书:物理学[M].中国大百科全书出版社,205.
许威杰,张耀存,2017.凝结潜热加热与对流反馈对一次高原低涡过程影响的数值模拟[J].高原气象,36(3):763-775.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00061.
叶笃正,高由禧,1979.青藏高原气象学[M].北京:科学出版社,115-118.
章基嘉,朱抱真,朱福康,等,1988.青藏高原气象学进展[M].北京:科学出版社,268.
赵大军,江玉华,李莹,2011.一次西南低涡暴雨过程的诊断分析与数值模拟[J].高原气象,30(5):1158-1169.