铁路快捷货运列车开行方案优选方法
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摘要
铁路快捷货运列车开行方案优选是一类决策问题,传统决策方法难以准确考虑决策者的偏好和风险倾向,为此将前景理论应用于列车开行方案优选中。在建立铁路快捷货运列车开行方案决策指标的基础上,首先考虑决策者偏好和风险倾向构建价值函数和权重函数;其次,计算各指标属性的前景值;最后,以各指标属性前景值为参考,结合VIKOR方法对备选开行方案进行综合决策。算例及参数分析结果表明,应用该方法对铁路快捷货运列车开行方案进行决策是科学有效的。
The selection of train schemes for railway express freight is one kind of decision-makings. In view of the fact that the preference and the risk trend of decision-makers cannot be accurately considered in traditional decision-making methods. Therefore, the prospect theory is applied to the optimization of the train schemes. On the basis of establishing the decision-making index of railway express freight train schemes, the prospect value functions and the weight functions for each decision index are constructed by combining with the subjective preference and the risk trend of the decision-maker. Prospect values of each index are calculated and treated as property values, which contains uncertainties and decision-maker's subjective preferences of indices. Finally, the VIKOR method is utilized for the comprehensive decision-making of benefit value based schemes. A case study and paramrter analysis show that the proposed method is applicable and effective for the selection of railway express freight train plans.
The selection of train schemes for railway express freight is one kind of decision-makings. In view of the fact that the preference and the risk trend of decision-makers cannot be accurately considered in traditional decision-making methods. Therefore, the prospect theory is applied to the optimization of the train schemes. On the basis of establishing the decision-making index of railway express freight train schemes, the prospect value functions and the weight functions for each decision index are constructed by combining with the subjective preference and the risk trend of the decision-maker. Prospect values of each index are calculated and treated as property values, which contains uncertainties and decision-maker's subjective preferences of indices. Finally, the VIKOR method is utilized for the comprehensive decision-making of benefit value based schemes. A case study and paramrter analysis show that the proposed method is applicable and effective for the selection of railway express freight train plans.
引文
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[2]ZHANG Min,NIE Lei,LI Zechuang,et al.Fuzzy multi-objective and groups decision method in optimal selection of landslide treatment scheme[J].Cluster Compter,2017,20(2):1303-1312.
[3]刘鹏,温惠英.基于集对-熵组合赋权的公交线网方案评价选优[J].重庆交通大学学报,2016,35(3):121-125.LIU Peng,WEN Huiying.Evaluation on public transport network scheme based on set pair and entropy analysis[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University,2016,35(3):121-125.
[4]陈政,武永祥,王丹爽.基于区间数排序的住房选择方案评价[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(5):131-135.CHEN Zheng,WU Yongxiang,WANG Danshuang.Aranking intervals based residential choice evaluation[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2016,30(5):131-135.
[5]苟敏,李夏苗,张平升.零散货物快运列车开行方案优选方法[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2018,15(3):770-777.GOU Min,LI Xiamiao,ZHANG Pingsheng.Preferred method of fragmented cargo express freight train operation plan[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2018,15(3):770-777.
[6]沈犁,张桐,戢小辉.基于累积前景理论的城市轨道交通线网规划决策[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2016,14(1):41-48.SHEN Li,ZHANG Tong,JI Xiaohui.Decision model of urban rail transit network planning based on cumulative prospect theory[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2016,14(1):41-48.
[7]田丽君,杨茜,黄海军,等.基于累积前景理论的出行方式选择模型及实证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(7):1778-1785.TIAN Lijun,YANG Qian,HUANG Haijun,et al.The cumulative prospect theory-based travel mode choice mode and its empirical verification[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2016,36(7):1778-1785.
[8]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis of decision making under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[9]王玮强,张春民,朱昌锋,等.基于累积前景理论的应急物流路径选择方法[J].中国安全科学学学报,2017,27(3):169-174.WANG Weiqiang,ZHANG Chunmin,ZHU Changfeng,et al.Route selection method for emergency logistics based on cumulative prospect theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(3):169-174.
[10]Opricovic S,Tzeng G H.Extended VIKOR method comparison with outranking methods[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2007,178(7):514-529.
[11]李庆胜,刘思峰,方志耕.基于前景理论的随机多属性VIKOR决策方法[J].计算机工程应用,2012,48(30):1-4.LI Qingsheng,LIU Sifeng,FANG Zhigeng.Stochastic VIKOR method based on prospect theory[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2012,48(30):1-4.
[12]王生昌,付迪,陈娟娟,等.基于熵值法的汽车动力性能主观评价指标权重确定方法[J].公路交通科技,2015,32(7):153-158.WANG Shengchang,FU Di,CHEN Juanjuan,et al.Determination of weights of subjective evaluation indexes of automobile dynamic performance based on entropy method[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2015,32(7):153-158.