基于情景分析的蓄滞洪区土地利用方式优化模拟研究——以蒙洼蓄洪区为例
|
摘要
为探索蓄滞洪区土地利用方式的优化调整方向,以淮河蒙洼蓄洪区为例,将遥感解译与实地调研相结合,运用土地利用动态度和转移矩阵,评价了土地利用方式在2000-2014年间的时空变化过程。通过构建"居民点减少"、"农田减少"和"协同作用"3类24个子情景,运用CLUE-S模型,预测并模拟了不同情景下土地利用的数量及空间分布。结果表明,蓄滞洪区土地利用方式受工程措施和政策因素影响显著;林地、水塘、农田和居民点4种地类之间,存在空间分布的竞争性行为:在上游和中游湖心庄台居民点附近,林地的优先级高于水塘,在下游堤防和河渠附近,水塘的优先级最高,此种分布特征可起到径流削减、涵养水源的作用。
The temporal and spatial distributions of land use/land cover change situations in Mengwa,Huaihe River from 2000 to2014 were investigated based on land use dynamic index and transition matrix.Three scenarios(24 sub-scenarios), "Immigration" " Agriculture land reduction" and " Combined actions",were developed and simulated by CLUE-S model to predict future land use pattern under different policies and restrictions.The optimization and simulation results indicated that land use pattern in flood detention basins were greatly influenced by engineering works and policies.Among four kinds of land use patterns as forest,pond,agricultural land and residential areas,spatial distribution competition existed:the priority of forest was higher than pond,in the periphery of residential areas of upper and middle reaches,while pond was the highest in the surrounding areas of lower embankment and rivers,.The predicted and optimized land use patterns would have advantages in flood reduction,water resources conservation and ecological functions.
The temporal and spatial distributions of land use/land cover change situations in Mengwa,Huaihe River from 2000 to2014 were investigated based on land use dynamic index and transition matrix.Three scenarios(24 sub-scenarios), "Immigration" " Agriculture land reduction" and " Combined actions",were developed and simulated by CLUE-S model to predict future land use pattern under different policies and restrictions.The optimization and simulation results indicated that land use pattern in flood detention basins were greatly influenced by engineering works and policies.Among four kinds of land use patterns as forest,pond,agricultural land and residential areas,spatial distribution competition existed:the priority of forest was higher than pond,in the periphery of residential areas of upper and middle reaches,while pond was the highest in the surrounding areas of lower embankment and rivers,.The predicted and optimized land use patterns would have advantages in flood reduction,water resources conservation and ecological functions.
引文
[1] RUST W,CORSTANJE R,HOLMAN I P,et al.Detecting land use and land management influences on catchment hydrology by modelling and wavelets[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,517:378-389.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.052.
[2]董晓华,方燕琴,李英海,等.基于SWAT模型的淮河上游土地利用变化情景的水文响应[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(5):32-40.(DONG X H,FANG Y Q,LI Y H,et al.Hydrological response under land use change scenarios for the upper Huaihe watershed based on SWAT model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(5):32-40.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.05.006.
[3]王振海,李传哲,于福亮,等.土地利用/覆被变化对径流量影响研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(1):88-93.(WANG Z H,LI C Z,YU F L,et al.Research progress on the impacts of land use/cover change on runoff[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(1):88-93.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2014.01088.
[4]林木生,陈兴伟,陈莹.晋江西溪流域土地利用覆被变化及其洪水响应分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2011,9(1):80-83.(LIN M S,CHEN X W,CHEN Y.Flood response to land use and land cover change of Xixi Basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2011,9(1):80-83.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2011.01080.
[5] ARCHER D,CLIMENT-SOLER D,HOLMAN I.Changes in discharge rise and fall rates applied to impact assessment of catchment land use[J].Hydrology Research,2010,41(1):13-26.DOI:10.2166/nh.2010.092.
[6] CONNELL P E,EWEN J,O DONNELL G,et al.Is there a link between agricultural land-use management and flooding[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2007,11(1):96-107.DOI:10.5194/hess-11-96-2007.
[7] SCHWEIZER P E,MATLACK G R.Factors driving land use change and forest distribution on the coastal plain of Mississippi,USA[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,121:55-64.DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.09.003.
[8] KIRBY C,NEWSON M D,GILMAN K.Plynlimon research:the first two decades[M].Institute of Hydrology Wallingford,UK,1991.DOI:10.1002/esp.3290170612.
[9] ROBINSON M,30years of forest hydrology changes at Coalburn:water balance and extreme flows[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,1999,2(2):233-238.DOI:10.5194/hess-2-233-1998.
[10]宋豫秦,张晓蕾.中国蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展途径[J].水科学进展,2014,25(6):888-896.(SONG Y Q,ZHANG X L.Optimal approaches of integrated flood management and sustainable development in China′s flood retention areas[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(6):888-896.(in Chinese))
[11]丰雷,叶剑平,蒋妍,等.中国农村土地调整的时序变化及地区差异——基于1999-2010年17省调查的实证分析[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(5):14-22.(FENG L,YE J P,JIANG Y,et al.The sequential variation and regional difference of land reallocation in rural China:an empirical study based on a survey in17provinces from 1999to 2010[J].China Land Science,2011,25(5):14-22.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-8158.2011.05.004.
[12]刘纪远,张增祥,徐新良,等.21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1411-1420.(LIU J Y,ZHANG Z X,XU X L,et al.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the Early 21st Century[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(12):1411-1420.(in Chinese))
[13]张晓蕾,宋豫秦.淮河流域行蓄洪区的演化及湿地恢复驱动力研究[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(2):22-27.(ZHANG X L,SONG Y Q.Succession theory and driving forces of wetland restoration in Huaihe flood retention areas[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2014,45(2):22-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0860.2014.02.006.
[14]高志强,易维.基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO模型的土地利用变化及驱动力分析.农业工程学报,2012,28(16):208-216.(GAO Z Q.,YI W.Land use change in China and analysis of its driving forces using CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(16):208-216.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.16.033.
[15]李娜,张丽,闫冬梅,等.基于CLUE-S模型的天津滨海新区土地利用变化情景模拟[J].遥感信息,28(4):62-68.(NA L,LI Z,DONGMEI Y,et al.Land use change prediction for Tianjin Binhai new area[J].Remote Sensing Information,2013,28(4):208-216.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-3177.2013.04.011.
[16]蔡玉梅,刘彦随,宇振荣,等.土地利用变化空间模拟的进展--CLUE-S模型及其应用[J].地理科学进展,2004,23(4):63-71.(CAI Y M,LIU Y S,YU Z R,et al.Progress in spatial simulation of land use changeCLUE-S model and its application[J].Progress in Geography,2004,23(4):63-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2004.04.008.
[17] PROSDOCIMI M,SOFIA G,DALLA FONTANA G,et al.Land use change in the Veneto floodplain and consequences on minor network drainage system[J].Journal of Agricultural Engineering,2013,44:448-452.
[18] DU J,THILL J,PEISER R B,et al.Urban land market and land-use changes in post-reform China:a case study of Beijing[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,124:118-128.DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.01.012.
[19] VERBURG P H,SOEPBOER W,VELDKAMP A,et al.Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use:the CLUE-S model[J].Environmental Management,2002,30(3):391-405.DOI:10.1007/s00267-002-2630-x.
[20] VERBURG P H,OVERMARS K P.Combining topdown and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling:exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model[J].Landscape Ecology,2009,24(9):1167-1181.DOI:10.1007/s10980-009-9355-7.
[21] PONTIUS JR R G,SCHNEIDER L C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,2001,85(1):239-248.DOI:10.1016/s0167-8809(01)00187-6.
[22] CHRZANOWSKI M.Weighted empirical likelihood inference for the area under the ROC curve[J].Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference,2014,147:159-172.DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2013.11.011.
[23] SCHAAD D E,CHAMBERS WB,HALLEY J M,et al.Design and performance of multipurpose constructed wetland and flow equalization basin[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering,2008,134(2):118-125.DOI:10.1061/(asce)0733-9372(2008)134:2(118).
[24] SCHOLZ M,YANG Q.Guidance on variables characterising water bodies including sustainable flood retention basins[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2010,98(3):190-199.DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.08.002.
[25]马亚鑫,周维博,宋扬.西安市主城区土地利用变化及其对地表径流的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(5):49-54.(MA Y X,ZHOU W B,SONG Y.Land use change and its impact on surface runoff in the main city of Xi′an[J].South-to North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(5):49-54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.05.008.
[2]董晓华,方燕琴,李英海,等.基于SWAT模型的淮河上游土地利用变化情景的水文响应[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(5):32-40.(DONG X H,FANG Y Q,LI Y H,et al.Hydrological response under land use change scenarios for the upper Huaihe watershed based on SWAT model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(5):32-40.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.05.006.
[3]王振海,李传哲,于福亮,等.土地利用/覆被变化对径流量影响研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(1):88-93.(WANG Z H,LI C Z,YU F L,et al.Research progress on the impacts of land use/cover change on runoff[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(1):88-93.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2014.01088.
[4]林木生,陈兴伟,陈莹.晋江西溪流域土地利用覆被变化及其洪水响应分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2011,9(1):80-83.(LIN M S,CHEN X W,CHEN Y.Flood response to land use and land cover change of Xixi Basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2011,9(1):80-83.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2011.01080.
[5] ARCHER D,CLIMENT-SOLER D,HOLMAN I.Changes in discharge rise and fall rates applied to impact assessment of catchment land use[J].Hydrology Research,2010,41(1):13-26.DOI:10.2166/nh.2010.092.
[6] CONNELL P E,EWEN J,O DONNELL G,et al.Is there a link between agricultural land-use management and flooding[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2007,11(1):96-107.DOI:10.5194/hess-11-96-2007.
[7] SCHWEIZER P E,MATLACK G R.Factors driving land use change and forest distribution on the coastal plain of Mississippi,USA[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,121:55-64.DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.09.003.
[8] KIRBY C,NEWSON M D,GILMAN K.Plynlimon research:the first two decades[M].Institute of Hydrology Wallingford,UK,1991.DOI:10.1002/esp.3290170612.
[9] ROBINSON M,30years of forest hydrology changes at Coalburn:water balance and extreme flows[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,1999,2(2):233-238.DOI:10.5194/hess-2-233-1998.
[10]宋豫秦,张晓蕾.中国蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展途径[J].水科学进展,2014,25(6):888-896.(SONG Y Q,ZHANG X L.Optimal approaches of integrated flood management and sustainable development in China′s flood retention areas[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(6):888-896.(in Chinese))
[11]丰雷,叶剑平,蒋妍,等.中国农村土地调整的时序变化及地区差异——基于1999-2010年17省调查的实证分析[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(5):14-22.(FENG L,YE J P,JIANG Y,et al.The sequential variation and regional difference of land reallocation in rural China:an empirical study based on a survey in17provinces from 1999to 2010[J].China Land Science,2011,25(5):14-22.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-8158.2011.05.004.
[12]刘纪远,张增祥,徐新良,等.21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1411-1420.(LIU J Y,ZHANG Z X,XU X L,et al.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China in the Early 21st Century[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(12):1411-1420.(in Chinese))
[13]张晓蕾,宋豫秦.淮河流域行蓄洪区的演化及湿地恢复驱动力研究[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(2):22-27.(ZHANG X L,SONG Y Q.Succession theory and driving forces of wetland restoration in Huaihe flood retention areas[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2014,45(2):22-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0860.2014.02.006.
[14]高志强,易维.基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO模型的土地利用变化及驱动力分析.农业工程学报,2012,28(16):208-216.(GAO Z Q.,YI W.Land use change in China and analysis of its driving forces using CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(16):208-216.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.16.033.
[15]李娜,张丽,闫冬梅,等.基于CLUE-S模型的天津滨海新区土地利用变化情景模拟[J].遥感信息,28(4):62-68.(NA L,LI Z,DONGMEI Y,et al.Land use change prediction for Tianjin Binhai new area[J].Remote Sensing Information,2013,28(4):208-216.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-3177.2013.04.011.
[16]蔡玉梅,刘彦随,宇振荣,等.土地利用变化空间模拟的进展--CLUE-S模型及其应用[J].地理科学进展,2004,23(4):63-71.(CAI Y M,LIU Y S,YU Z R,et al.Progress in spatial simulation of land use changeCLUE-S model and its application[J].Progress in Geography,2004,23(4):63-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2004.04.008.
[17] PROSDOCIMI M,SOFIA G,DALLA FONTANA G,et al.Land use change in the Veneto floodplain and consequences on minor network drainage system[J].Journal of Agricultural Engineering,2013,44:448-452.
[18] DU J,THILL J,PEISER R B,et al.Urban land market and land-use changes in post-reform China:a case study of Beijing[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2014,124:118-128.DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.01.012.
[19] VERBURG P H,SOEPBOER W,VELDKAMP A,et al.Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use:the CLUE-S model[J].Environmental Management,2002,30(3):391-405.DOI:10.1007/s00267-002-2630-x.
[20] VERBURG P H,OVERMARS K P.Combining topdown and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling:exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model[J].Landscape Ecology,2009,24(9):1167-1181.DOI:10.1007/s10980-009-9355-7.
[21] PONTIUS JR R G,SCHNEIDER L C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,2001,85(1):239-248.DOI:10.1016/s0167-8809(01)00187-6.
[22] CHRZANOWSKI M.Weighted empirical likelihood inference for the area under the ROC curve[J].Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference,2014,147:159-172.DOI:10.1016/j.jspi.2013.11.011.
[23] SCHAAD D E,CHAMBERS WB,HALLEY J M,et al.Design and performance of multipurpose constructed wetland and flow equalization basin[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering,2008,134(2):118-125.DOI:10.1061/(asce)0733-9372(2008)134:2(118).
[24] SCHOLZ M,YANG Q.Guidance on variables characterising water bodies including sustainable flood retention basins[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2010,98(3):190-199.DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.08.002.
[25]马亚鑫,周维博,宋扬.西安市主城区土地利用变化及其对地表径流的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(5):49-54.(MA Y X,ZHOU W B,SONG Y.Land use change and its impact on surface runoff in the main city of Xi′an[J].South-to North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(5):49-54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.05.008.