厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)研究的战略部署与研究热点
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摘要
厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)影响着全球气候,被认为与众多全球灾害性天气事件有关。为了更好地了解ENSO研究的发展趋势及其对全球海洋事务的影响,本文对WCRP、GOOS和TPOS 2020等与ENSO研究相关的国际研究计划和各国家地区的ENSO研究战略情况进行梳理,并结合VOSviewer文献计量学方法进行分析,探讨ENSO研究的国际发展趋势及研究热点,以便为我国ENSO相关研究与决策提供参考。
El Niňo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which affects the global climate,is believed to be associated with lots of catastrophic weather events,such as floods,hurricanes,droughts and tornados.ENSO studies have important scientific,economic and social significance.In order to better understand the developing trend of ENSO research and the impact of ENSO on global maritime affairs,a comparative analysis of the international strategies and status of ENSO studies is provided in this paper.By adopting an applied bibliometrics method,hot issues and developing trends of ENSO are explored in detail,hoping to provide useful references for ENSO-related research and decision-making processes.
El Niňo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),which affects the global climate,is believed to be associated with lots of catastrophic weather events,such as floods,hurricanes,droughts and tornados.ENSO studies have important scientific,economic and social significance.In order to better understand the developing trend of ENSO research and the impact of ENSO on global maritime affairs,a comparative analysis of the international strategies and status of ENSO studies is provided in this paper.By adopting an applied bibliometrics method,hot issues and developing trends of ENSO are explored in detail,hoping to provide useful references for ENSO-related research and decision-making processes.
引文
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[2]CHRISTOPHER D G H,HUGHES A R,HULTGREN K M,et al.The Impacts of Climate Change in Coastal Marine Systems [J].Ecology Letters,2006,9(2):228-241.
[3]JACOBS G A,HURLBURT H E,KINDLE J C,et al.Decade-Scale Trans-Pacific Propagation and Warming Effects of An El Niňo Anomaly [J].Nature,1994,370(6488):360-363.
[4]PATZ J A,LENDRUM D C,HOLLOWAY T,et al.Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health[J].Nature,2005,438(7066):310-317.
[5]L'HEUREUX,M L,TAKAHASHI K,WATKINS A B,et al.Observing and Predicting the 2015-16 El Niňo [J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2017,98(7):1363-1382.
[6]WANG,B,WU R G,FU X H.Pacific-East Asian Teleconnection:How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate?[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(9):1517-1536.
[7]Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.2018/19 El Niňo Advisory [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].http://www.fao.org/3/ca2530en/CA2530EN.pdf.
[8]WMO.Progress in Observing and Predicting ENSO [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/progress-observing-and-predicting-enso-0.
[9]World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).About WCRP [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].https://www.wcrp-climate.org/.
[10]World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).WCRP Core Projects [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].https://www.wcrp-climate.org/core-projects.
[11]The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).Framework for Ocean Observing [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].http://www.goosocean.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=125&Itemid=113.
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[18]Australia Government Department of the Environment and Energy.Grants and Funding [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].http://www.environment.gov.au/.
[19]Fisheries and Oceans Canada.Reports on Plans and Priorities [DB/OL].[2018-11-22].http://dfo-mpo.gc.ca/reports-rapports-eng.htm.
[20]GEOMAR.Topic 1:Ocean Circulation and Climate [DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.geomar.de/nc/en/research/oceans/topic-1-ocean-circulation-and-climate/.
[21]中国科学院大气物理研究所.平流层973项目课题结题验收会在京召开[DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.iap.ac.cn/xwzx/zhxw/201411/t20141105_4247567.html.Institute of Atmosphere Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.The Acceptance Meeting of Stratospheric 973 Project Was Held in Beijing [DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.iap.ac.cn/xwzx/zhxw/201411/t20141105_4247567.html.
[22]中国科学院海洋研究所.“热带太平洋海洋环流与暖池的结构特征、变异机理和气候效应”获科技部验收优秀[DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.qdio.cas.cn/xwzx/kydt/201708/t20170803_4839396.html.Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.“Structures,Variability and Climatic Impacts of Ocean Circulation and Warm Pool in the Tropical Pacific Ocean” was Checked and Accepted as Outstanding by the Ministry of Science and Technology[DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.qdio.cas.cn/xwzx/kydt/201708/t20170803_4839396.html.
[23]国家自然科学基金委.“关于季风与ENSO循环相互作用的研究”取得突出进展[DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab110/info18645.htm.NSFC.Outstanding Progress in the Study of the Interaction between Monsoon and ENSO Cycle [DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab110/info18645.htm.
[24]国家自然科学基金委.“ENSO的变异机理和可预测性研究”重大项目指南[DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab235/info53693.htm.NSFC.Guidelines for the Major Project on the Study of Variation Mechanisms and Predictability of ENSO [DB/OL].[2018-11-23].http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab235/info53693.htm.
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[26]VARIKODEN H,REVADEKAR J V,CHOUDHARY Y,et al.Droughts of Indian Summer Monsoon Associated with El Niňo and Non-El Niňo Years [J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(8):1916-1925.
[27]BARNARD P L,HOOVER D,HUBBARD D M,et al.Extreme Oceanographic Forcing and Coastal Response Due to the 2015-2016 El Nino [J].Nature Communications,2017,8:14365.
[28]HAM Y G.El Niňo Events Set to Intensify [J].Nature,2018,564(7735):192-193.
[29]CAI W J,WANG G J,DEWITTE B,et al.Increased Variability of Eastern Pacific El Niňo under Greenhouse Warming [J].Nature,2018,564(7735):201-206.
[30]MCCABE R M,HICKEY B M,KUDELA R M,et al.An Unprecedented Coastwide Toxic Algal Bloom Linked to Anomalous Ocean Conditions [J].Geophysical Research Letters,2016,19(43):10366-10376.
[31]WOLAMIN A,ROZANOVV V,DINTER T,et al.Global Retrieval of Marine and Terrestrial Chlorophyll Fluorescence at Its Red Peak Using Hyperspectral Top of Atmosphere Radiance Measurements:Feasibility Study and First Results [J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2015,101(2):805-815.