WRF模式在天山地区模拟能力的敏感性评估
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摘要
为探寻天山地区气候模拟WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式中最优参数化方案组合,针对云微物理方案(MIC)、积云对流方案(CS)、行星边界层/近地面层方案(PBL/SLS)、陆面过程方案(LSM)以及长短波辐射方案(LSW)设计了6组季节尺度物理参数化方案敏感性试验,模拟时间设为2014-11-28—2015-12-01。利用地面气象站观测数据和GPM(global precipitation measurement)卫星降水数据(R≥0. 6),对模式模拟的日最高、最低气温及降水进行验证。结果表明:WRF模式对气温的模拟效果较好,且对日最高气温(0. 8 In this study,a sensitivity analysis of the weather research and forecasting model( WRF) to different physical options in the Tianshan Mountains was carried out to seek the best performance combination. Yearly simulations at seasonal scale from 28 th November,2014 to 1 st December,2015 were carried out. The station observations and GPM( Global Precipitation Measurement) satellite precipitation data( R≥0. 6) were used to validate the simulated daily extreme temperatures and precipitation. This work showed that temperature was modeled by WRF well,the simulated results of daily maximum temperature( T2 max,0. 8 < R < 0. 95) were better than that of daily minimum temperature( T2 min,0. 62 < R < 0. 88),and T2 min was sensitive to land surface model and cloud-microphysical model. The simulated results of precipitation by WRF were not so ideal with low correlation coefficients about0. 6( R≈0. 6),and they were different from different schemes. The cloud-microphysical scheme WSM 6-class could be used to simulate precipitation well. Kain-Fristch cumulus/convective scheme could not be used to describe the strong convection and complex terrain in the Tianshan Mountains as we got the very large T2 min biases and negative values of precipitation in summer. The best performance combination was WSM 6-class( Cloud-microphysics),Betts-Miller-Janjic( Cumulus/Convective scheme),Mellor-Yamada-Janjic scheme/Monin-Obukhov( Janjic Eta) scheme( Planetary boundary layer/Surface layer scheme),NOAH( Land surface model),and Community Atmosphere Model( Longwave and shortwave radiation).
引文
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[25]Kain J S.The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:An update[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2004,43(1):170-181.
[26]Hong S-Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(9):2 318-2 341.
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[28]Smirnova T G,Brown J M,Benjamin S G,et al.Parameterization of cold-season processes in the maps land-surface scheme[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2000,105(D3):4 077-4 086.
[29]Iacono M J,Delamere J S,Mlawer E J,et al.Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2008,113:D13103.
[30]Menne M J,Durre I,Vose R S,et al.An overview of the global historical climatology network-daily database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2012,29(7):897-910.
[31]Huffman G J,Bolvin D T,Nelkin E J.Integrated multi-satellite E-Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)technical documentation[J].NASA/GSFC Code,2015,612:47.
[32]金晓龙,邵华,张弛,等.GPM卫星降水数据在天山山区的适用性分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(12):2 074-2 085.[Jin Xiaolong,Shao Hua,Zhang Chi,et al.The applicability evaluation of three satellite products in Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(12):2 074-2 085.]
[33]Hu Z,Hu Q,Zhang C,et al.Evaluation of reanalysis,spatially interpolated and satellite remotely sensed precipitation data sets in central Asia[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2016,121(10):5 648-5 663.
[34]Tan M L,Ibrahim A L,Duan Z,et al.Evaluation of six high-resolution satellite and ground-based precipitation products over Malaysia[J].Remote Sensing,2015,7(2):1 504-1 528.
[35]胡芩,姜大膀,范广洲.CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):924-938.[Hu Qin,Jiang Dabang,Fan Guangzhou.Evaluation of CMIP5models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(5):924-938.]
[36]Zhang Y,Dulière V,Mote P W,et al.Evaluation of WRF and Had RM mesoscale climate simulations over the U.S.Pacific Northwest[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(20):5 511-5 526.
[37]Taylor K E.Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2001,106(D7):7 183-7 192.
[38]Jiang D P,Tian Z P,Lang X M.Reliability of climate models for China through the IPCC third to fifth assessment reports[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36:1 114-1 133.
[39]Yu S,Eder B,Dennis R,et al.New unbiased symmetric metrics for evaluation of air quality models[J].Atmospheric Science Letters,2006,7(1):26-34.
[40]Andrys J,Lyons T J,Kala J.Multidecadal evaluation of WRFdownscaling capabilities over Western Australia in simulating rainfall and temperature extremes[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2015,54(2):370-394.
[41]HeikkilU,Sandvik A,Sorteberg A.Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 in complex terrain using the WRF regional climate model[J].Climate Dynamics,2010,37(7-8):1 551-1 564.
[42]Zhang M,Luo G,Hamdi R,et al.Numerical simulations of the impacts of mountain on oasis effects in arid Central Asia[J].Atmosphere,2017,8(11):212.
[2]Hu Z,Zhang C,Hu Q,et al.Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(3):1 143-1 167.
[3]Chen Y,Li W,Deng H,et al.Changes in Central Asia’s water tower:Past,present and future[J].Scientific Reports,2016,6:35 458-35 464.
[4]Bolch T,Marchenko S.Significance of glaciers,rockglaciers and ice-rich permafrost in the Northern Tianshan as water towers under climate change conditions[J].Snow Glacier Water Resources A-sia,2009,8:132-144.
[5]Narama C,Kb A,Duishonakunov M,et al.Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains,Central A-sia,using Corona(~1970),Landsat(~2000),and ALOS(~2007)satellite data[J].Global and Planetary Change,2010,71(1-2):42-54.
[6]Hong S Y,Kanamitsu M.Dynamical downscaling:Fundamental issues from an NWP point of view and recommendations[J].AsiaPacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,50(1):83-104.
[7]胡海洋,胡轶佳,钟中,等.WRF模式对中国夏季降水的动力降尺度模拟研究[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):413-421.[Hu Haiyang,Hu Yijia,Zhong Zhong,et al.Double nested dynamical downscaling research on summer precipitation over China with WRF model[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(4):413-421.]
[8]Argüeso D,Hidalgo-Mu1oz J M,Gámiz-Fortis S R,et al.Evaluation of WRF parameterizations for climate studies over Southern Spain using a multistep regionalization[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(21):5 633-5 651.
[9]Mooney P A,Mulligan F J,Fealy R.Evaluation of the sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climates of europe over the period 1990-1995[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(3):1 002-1 017.
[10]Crétat J,Pohl B,Richard Y,et al.Uncertainties in simulating regional climate of Southern Africa:Sensitivity to physical parameterizations using WRF[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,38(3-4):613-634.
[11]Flaounas E,Bastin S,Janicot S.Regional climate modelling of the2006 West African monsoon:Sensitivity to convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisation using WRF[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,36(5-6):1 083-1 105.
[12]Evans J P,Ekstr9m M,Ji F.Evaluating the performance of a WRFphysics ensemble over South-East Australia[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,39(6):1 241-1 258.
[13]Kala J,Andrys J,Lyons T J,et al.Sensitivity of WRF to driving data and physics options on a seasonal time-scale for the southwest of Western Australia[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,44(3-4):633-659.
[14]胡汝骥.中国天山自然地理[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2004.[Hu Ruji.Physical Geography of the Tianshan Mountains in China[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2004.]
[15]Dee D P,Uppala S,Simmons A,et al.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2011,137(656):553-597.
[16]Wang W,Barker D,Bray J,et al.User’s guide for advanced research WRF(ARW)modeling system version 3[R].Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division-National Center for Atmospheric Research(MMM-NCAR),2007.
[17]Stauffer D R,Seaman N L.Use of four-dimensional data assimilation in a limited-area mesoscale model.Part I:Experiments with synoptic-scale data[J].Monthly Weather Review,1990,118(6):1 250-1 277.
[18]Qiu Y,Hu Q,Zhang C.WRF simulation and downscaling of local climate in Central Asia[J].International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(10):513-528.
[19]Thompson G,Field P R,Rasmussen R M,et al.Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme.Part II:Implementation of a new snow parameterization[J].Monthly Weather Review,2008,136(12):5 095-5 115.
[20]Janjic'Z I.The step-mountain eta coordinate model:Further developments of the convection,viscous sublayer,and turbulence closure schemes[J].Monthly Weather Review,1994,122(5):927-945.
[21]Chen F,Dudhia J.Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system Part I:Model implementation and sensitivity[J].Monthly Weather Review,2001,129(4):569-585.
[22]Janic'Z I.Nonsingular Implementation of the Mellor-Yamada Level2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso Model[M].US Department of Commerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,National Weather Service,National Centers for Environmental Prediction,2001.
[23]Collins W D,Rasch P J,Boville B A,et al.Description of the NCAR community atmosphere model(CAM 3.0)[R].NCARTech Note,NCAR/TN-464+STR,2004:226
[24]Lim K-S S,Hong S-Y.Development of an effective double-moment cloud microphysics scheme with prognostic cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)for weather and climate models[J].Monthly Weather Review,2010,138(5):1 587-1 612.
[25]Kain J S.The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:An update[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2004,43(1):170-181.
[26]Hong S-Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(9):2 318-2 341.
[27]刘洋,李诚志,刘志辉,等.基于WRF模式的新疆巴音布鲁克盆地强降雨天气数值模拟效果分析[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):28-37.[Liu Yang,Li Chengzhi,Liu Zhihui,et al.Analysis on the numerical simulation of heavy rainfall based on WRF model in Bayanbuluk Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(1):28-37.]
[28]Smirnova T G,Brown J M,Benjamin S G,et al.Parameterization of cold-season processes in the maps land-surface scheme[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2000,105(D3):4 077-4 086.
[29]Iacono M J,Delamere J S,Mlawer E J,et al.Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2008,113:D13103.
[30]Menne M J,Durre I,Vose R S,et al.An overview of the global historical climatology network-daily database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2012,29(7):897-910.
[31]Huffman G J,Bolvin D T,Nelkin E J.Integrated multi-satellite E-Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)technical documentation[J].NASA/GSFC Code,2015,612:47.
[32]金晓龙,邵华,张弛,等.GPM卫星降水数据在天山山区的适用性分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(12):2 074-2 085.[Jin Xiaolong,Shao Hua,Zhang Chi,et al.The applicability evaluation of three satellite products in Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(12):2 074-2 085.]
[33]Hu Z,Hu Q,Zhang C,et al.Evaluation of reanalysis,spatially interpolated and satellite remotely sensed precipitation data sets in central Asia[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2016,121(10):5 648-5 663.
[34]Tan M L,Ibrahim A L,Duan Z,et al.Evaluation of six high-resolution satellite and ground-based precipitation products over Malaysia[J].Remote Sensing,2015,7(2):1 504-1 528.
[35]胡芩,姜大膀,范广洲.CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):924-938.[Hu Qin,Jiang Dabang,Fan Guangzhou.Evaluation of CMIP5models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(5):924-938.]
[36]Zhang Y,Dulière V,Mote P W,et al.Evaluation of WRF and Had RM mesoscale climate simulations over the U.S.Pacific Northwest[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(20):5 511-5 526.
[37]Taylor K E.Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2001,106(D7):7 183-7 192.
[38]Jiang D P,Tian Z P,Lang X M.Reliability of climate models for China through the IPCC third to fifth assessment reports[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36:1 114-1 133.
[39]Yu S,Eder B,Dennis R,et al.New unbiased symmetric metrics for evaluation of air quality models[J].Atmospheric Science Letters,2006,7(1):26-34.
[40]Andrys J,Lyons T J,Kala J.Multidecadal evaluation of WRFdownscaling capabilities over Western Australia in simulating rainfall and temperature extremes[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2015,54(2):370-394.
[41]HeikkilU,Sandvik A,Sorteberg A.Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 in complex terrain using the WRF regional climate model[J].Climate Dynamics,2010,37(7-8):1 551-1 564.
[42]Zhang M,Luo G,Hamdi R,et al.Numerical simulations of the impacts of mountain on oasis effects in arid Central Asia[J].Atmosphere,2017,8(11):212.