基于CA-Markov模型的安溪县茶叶种植区动态变化
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摘要
安溪县是山地茶叶经济的典型代表和成功范例,了解安溪县茶叶种植区域时空扩张对于我国山地茶叶经济发展模式具有借鉴意义。本研究对安溪县1991、1998、1999、2006、2007、2010和2015年的遥感影像进行解译,分析不同时期茶叶种植区域扩张动态变化。同时,运用CA-Markov模型与Logistic回归模型对2015年土地利用类型进行模拟,预测结果与实际解译结果的Kappa系数为0.787,说明模拟结果可信。在此基础上,运用CAMarkov模型对2020年土地利用变化进行模拟。结果表明,安溪县茶叶种植区主要由林地转化而来,其面积呈现明显的阶段上升状态,可以分为1991—1999、1999—2007、2007—2015年3个上升时段。总体上,安溪县茶叶种植区域属于慢速变化型,茶园土地利用动态度指数为14.88%。茶叶种植区域呈现出从早期以东北部为主向全县扩张变化的趋势,至2020年还会向安溪县的西南方向进一步扩张,原来零散的茶园变成聚集的规模种植园区。模拟结果可为安溪县的茶叶种植规划布局提供参考。
Anxi County is a representative and successful example of mountain tea economy.Understanding the spatial and temporal expansion of tea planting area in Anxi County is of great significance to the development mode of mountain tea economy in China. Here,we interpreted remote sensing images of Anxi County in 1991,1998,1999,2006,2007,2010 and 2015,and analyzed the expansion of tea planting area at different periods. Land use change in 2015 was simulated using CA-Markov model and Logistic regression model. Compared with the interpretation data of 2015,Kappa coefficient of the simulated results was 0.787,indicating that the simulated results were credible. Then,land use change in 2020 was simulated. The results showed that the tea planting area in Anxi County showed gradual rise in three stages,which were from1991 to 1999,1999 to 2007 and 2007 to 2015. Overall,tea planting area changed slowly,and the land use dynamic index of tea plantations was 14.88%. Spatially,tea plantation area in Anxi County was expanded from the northeast to the entire county,and would further expand to the southwestern part,with the scattered small-area tea plantations merging into some large-area plantations. Our results may provide guideline for planning layout of future tea-planting in the county.
Anxi County is a representative and successful example of mountain tea economy.Understanding the spatial and temporal expansion of tea planting area in Anxi County is of great significance to the development mode of mountain tea economy in China. Here,we interpreted remote sensing images of Anxi County in 1991,1998,1999,2006,2007,2010 and 2015,and analyzed the expansion of tea planting area at different periods. Land use change in 2015 was simulated using CA-Markov model and Logistic regression model. Compared with the interpretation data of 2015,Kappa coefficient of the simulated results was 0.787,indicating that the simulated results were credible. Then,land use change in 2020 was simulated. The results showed that the tea planting area in Anxi County showed gradual rise in three stages,which were from1991 to 1999,1999 to 2007 and 2007 to 2015. Overall,tea planting area changed slowly,and the land use dynamic index of tea plantations was 14.88%. Spatially,tea plantation area in Anxi County was expanded from the northeast to the entire county,and would further expand to the southwestern part,with the scattered small-area tea plantations merging into some large-area plantations. Our results may provide guideline for planning layout of future tea-planting in the county.
引文
刁亚芹,韩莹,李兆富.2013.2000年以来天目湖流域茶园分布变化及趋势模拟.湖泊科学,25(6):799-808.
姜文亮.2007.基于GIS和空间Logistic模型的城市扩展预测---以深圳市龙岗区为例.经济地理,27(5):800-804.
井云清,张飞,张月.2016.基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及预测.应用生态学报,27(11):3649-3658.
李丽,刘普幸,姚玉龙.2015.近28年金昌市土地利用动态变化及模拟预测.生态学杂志,34(4):1097-1104.
李平,李秀彬,刘学军.2001.我国现阶段土地利用变化驱动力的宏观分析.地理研究,20(2):129-138.
李兴钢,梁成华,王延松,等.2013.基于CA-Markov模型的辽河三角洲湿地景观格局预测.环境科学与技术,36(5):188-192.
刘东云,黄晓磊,杜林芳,等.2012.天津湿地景观格局动态变化.生态学杂志,31(11):2914-2920.
刘友兆,丁瑞兴,孙玉华,等.1994.茶园土壤中铝的形态转化及其对生态环境的影响.水土保持研究,1(5):71-74.
聂芹,李连运.2006.多步骤分类法在上海市闵行区土地利用/覆盖信息提取中的应用.国土资源遥感,18(1):79-82.
申文明,王文杰,罗海江,等.2007.基于决策树分类技术的遥感影像分类方法研究.遥感技术与应用,22(3):333-338.
苏伟,姜方方,朱德海,等.2015.基于决策树和混合像元分解的玉米种植面积提取方法.农业机械学报,46(9):289-295.
王秀兰,包玉海.1999.土地利用动态变化研究方法探讨.地理科学进展,18(1):81-87.
吴振福,林强.2006.安溪县茶园水土流失现状及防治对策.水土保持应用技术,(4):36-38.
谢花林,李波.2008.基于logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析---以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例.地理研究,27(2):294-304.
张杰,周寅康,李仁强,等.2009.土地利用/覆盖变化空间直观模拟精度检验与不确定分析:以北京市为例.中国科学:D辑,39(11):1560-1569.
张晓娟,周启刚,王兆林,等.2017.基于MCE-CA-Markov的三峡库区土地利用演变模拟及预测.农业工程学报,39(11):268-277.
赵冬玲,杜萌,杨建宇,等.2016.基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用演化模拟预测研究.农业机械学报,47(3):278-285.
Aburas MM,Ho YM,Ramli MF,et al.2017.Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio.International Journal of Applied Earth Observation&Geoinformation,59:65-78.
Behera MD,Borate SN,Panda SN.2012.Modeling and analyzing the watershed dynamics using Cellular Automata(CA)-Markov model:A geo-information based approach.Journal of Earth System Science,121:1011-1024.
Berbero4lu S,Akln A,Clarke KC.2016.Cellular automata modeling approaches to forecast urban growth for adana,Turkey:A comparative approach.Landscape&Urban Planning,153:11-27.
Blackie JR.1972.Hydrological effects of a change in land use from forest to tea plantation in Kenya.IASH/UNESCO Studies and Reports on Hydrology,12:312-329.
Clarke KC,Hoppen S,Gaydos L.1997.A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area.Environment and Planning B,24:247-261.
Forrester JW.1968.Principles of System.MIT,MA:WrightAllen Press.
Guan D,Gao W,Watari K.2008.Land use change of Kitakyushu based on landscape ecology and Markov model.Journal of Geographical Sciences,18:455-468.
Kemeny JG,Snell JL.1960.Finite Markov chains.Princeton,New Jersey:D.Van Nostrand Company,Inc.
Kumar P,Gupta DK,Mishra VN,et al.2015.Comparison of support vector machine,artificial neural network,and spectral angle mapper algorithms for crop classification using LISS IV data.International Journal of Remote Sensing,36:1604-1617.
Nourqolipour R,Abdul Rashid BMS,Balasundra SK.2015.AGIS-based model to analyze the spatial and temporal development of oil palm land use in Kuala Langat district,Malaysia.Environmental Earth Sciences,73:1687-1700.
Rendana M,Rahim SA,Mohd RIW.2015.CA-Markov for predicting land use changes in tropical catchment area:A case study in Cameron Highland,Malaysi.Journal of Applied Sciences,15:689-695.
Pontius RG,Schneider LC.2001.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,85:239-248.
Sang LL,Zhang C,Yang JY.2011.Simulation of land use spatial pattern of towns and villages based on CA-Markov model.Mathematical and Computer Modelling,54:938-943.
Tchebakova N,Parfenova E,Soja A.2009.The effects of climate,permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate.Environment Research Letters,4:940-941.
Veldkamp A,Fresco LO.1996.CLUE:A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects.Ecological Modelling,85:253-270.
Verburg PH,Soepboer W,Limpiada R,et al.2002.Land use change modelling at the regional scale:The CLUE-S model.Environmental Management,30:391-405.
Von Neumann J.1956.Probabilistic logic and the synthesis of reliable organisms from unreliable components//Shannon C,Mc Carthy J,ed.Automata Studies.Princeton:Princeton University Press:43-98.
姜文亮.2007.基于GIS和空间Logistic模型的城市扩展预测---以深圳市龙岗区为例.经济地理,27(5):800-804.
井云清,张飞,张月.2016.基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及预测.应用生态学报,27(11):3649-3658.
李丽,刘普幸,姚玉龙.2015.近28年金昌市土地利用动态变化及模拟预测.生态学杂志,34(4):1097-1104.
李平,李秀彬,刘学军.2001.我国现阶段土地利用变化驱动力的宏观分析.地理研究,20(2):129-138.
李兴钢,梁成华,王延松,等.2013.基于CA-Markov模型的辽河三角洲湿地景观格局预测.环境科学与技术,36(5):188-192.
刘东云,黄晓磊,杜林芳,等.2012.天津湿地景观格局动态变化.生态学杂志,31(11):2914-2920.
刘友兆,丁瑞兴,孙玉华,等.1994.茶园土壤中铝的形态转化及其对生态环境的影响.水土保持研究,1(5):71-74.
聂芹,李连运.2006.多步骤分类法在上海市闵行区土地利用/覆盖信息提取中的应用.国土资源遥感,18(1):79-82.
申文明,王文杰,罗海江,等.2007.基于决策树分类技术的遥感影像分类方法研究.遥感技术与应用,22(3):333-338.
苏伟,姜方方,朱德海,等.2015.基于决策树和混合像元分解的玉米种植面积提取方法.农业机械学报,46(9):289-295.
王秀兰,包玉海.1999.土地利用动态变化研究方法探讨.地理科学进展,18(1):81-87.
吴振福,林强.2006.安溪县茶园水土流失现状及防治对策.水土保持应用技术,(4):36-38.
谢花林,李波.2008.基于logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析---以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例.地理研究,27(2):294-304.
张杰,周寅康,李仁强,等.2009.土地利用/覆盖变化空间直观模拟精度检验与不确定分析:以北京市为例.中国科学:D辑,39(11):1560-1569.
张晓娟,周启刚,王兆林,等.2017.基于MCE-CA-Markov的三峡库区土地利用演变模拟及预测.农业工程学报,39(11):268-277.
赵冬玲,杜萌,杨建宇,等.2016.基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用演化模拟预测研究.农业机械学报,47(3):278-285.
Aburas MM,Ho YM,Ramli MF,et al.2017.Improving the capability of an integrated CA-Markov model to simulate spatio-temporal urban growth trends using an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Frequency Ratio.International Journal of Applied Earth Observation&Geoinformation,59:65-78.
Behera MD,Borate SN,Panda SN.2012.Modeling and analyzing the watershed dynamics using Cellular Automata(CA)-Markov model:A geo-information based approach.Journal of Earth System Science,121:1011-1024.
Berbero4lu S,Akln A,Clarke KC.2016.Cellular automata modeling approaches to forecast urban growth for adana,Turkey:A comparative approach.Landscape&Urban Planning,153:11-27.
Blackie JR.1972.Hydrological effects of a change in land use from forest to tea plantation in Kenya.IASH/UNESCO Studies and Reports on Hydrology,12:312-329.
Clarke KC,Hoppen S,Gaydos L.1997.A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area.Environment and Planning B,24:247-261.
Forrester JW.1968.Principles of System.MIT,MA:WrightAllen Press.
Guan D,Gao W,Watari K.2008.Land use change of Kitakyushu based on landscape ecology and Markov model.Journal of Geographical Sciences,18:455-468.
Kemeny JG,Snell JL.1960.Finite Markov chains.Princeton,New Jersey:D.Van Nostrand Company,Inc.
Kumar P,Gupta DK,Mishra VN,et al.2015.Comparison of support vector machine,artificial neural network,and spectral angle mapper algorithms for crop classification using LISS IV data.International Journal of Remote Sensing,36:1604-1617.
Nourqolipour R,Abdul Rashid BMS,Balasundra SK.2015.AGIS-based model to analyze the spatial and temporal development of oil palm land use in Kuala Langat district,Malaysia.Environmental Earth Sciences,73:1687-1700.
Rendana M,Rahim SA,Mohd RIW.2015.CA-Markov for predicting land use changes in tropical catchment area:A case study in Cameron Highland,Malaysi.Journal of Applied Sciences,15:689-695.
Pontius RG,Schneider LC.2001.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,85:239-248.
Sang LL,Zhang C,Yang JY.2011.Simulation of land use spatial pattern of towns and villages based on CA-Markov model.Mathematical and Computer Modelling,54:938-943.
Tchebakova N,Parfenova E,Soja A.2009.The effects of climate,permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate.Environment Research Letters,4:940-941.
Veldkamp A,Fresco LO.1996.CLUE:A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects.Ecological Modelling,85:253-270.
Verburg PH,Soepboer W,Limpiada R,et al.2002.Land use change modelling at the regional scale:The CLUE-S model.Environmental Management,30:391-405.
Von Neumann J.1956.Probabilistic logic and the synthesis of reliable organisms from unreliable components//Shannon C,Mc Carthy J,ed.Automata Studies.Princeton:Princeton University Press:43-98.