人口老龄化、资源依赖与科技创新——基于2006-2015年中国省级面板数据的实证研究
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摘要
科技创新是提高社会生产力和综合国力的战略支撑,亦是保持经济高质量增长的有效途径。当前,中国人口老龄化和资源依赖日益凸显对科技创新的影响尤为突出。文章选取2006-2015年中国30个省际数据为研究样本,考察了人口老龄化、资源依赖对科技创新的影响及传导机制。研究结果表明:人口老龄化与科技创新并非保持单一线性关系,而是呈现显著先促进、后阻碍的"倒U型"趋势;资源依赖与科技创新同样呈现非单调线性关系,而是显现先阻碍、后促进的"微笑"型趋势;进一步来看,上述效应通过人口老龄化和资源依赖对人力资本的影响而传导。基于此中国未来应增强老龄人人力资本投资意愿和降低投资成本,同时进一步加快优化资源型产业内部结构,有效降低老龄化及资源依赖对科技创新的直接和间接影响。
Scientific &technological innovation provides the strategic support to improving social productivity and overall national strength,as well as the effective way to maintain high quality economic growth.At present,the ever-increasing seriousness of the problems of aging population and resources dependence is exerting a significant impact on scientific &technological innovation in China.This paper,by using China's provincial data from 2006 to 2015,attempts to analyze the influence and transmission mechanism of the problem.The conclusion shows that the relationship between aging population and scientific &technological innovation and that between resource dependence and scientific &technological innovation are respectively inverted U-shaped and'smile'-shaped.As the direct effects of the above are transmitted through indirect effects on human capital,both effects need to be reduced for scientific &technological innovation by trying to increase willingness but decrease cost for aging people to invest in human capital,as well as accelerating the optimization of the internal structure for the resource-based industries.
Scientific &technological innovation provides the strategic support to improving social productivity and overall national strength,as well as the effective way to maintain high quality economic growth.At present,the ever-increasing seriousness of the problems of aging population and resources dependence is exerting a significant impact on scientific &technological innovation in China.This paper,by using China's provincial data from 2006 to 2015,attempts to analyze the influence and transmission mechanism of the problem.The conclusion shows that the relationship between aging population and scientific &technological innovation and that between resource dependence and scientific &technological innovation are respectively inverted U-shaped and'smile'-shaped.As the direct effects of the above are transmitted through indirect effects on human capital,both effects need to be reduced for scientific &technological innovation by trying to increase willingness but decrease cost for aging people to invest in human capital,as well as accelerating the optimization of the internal structure for the resource-based industries.
引文
[1]丁菊红、邓可斌,2007,《政府干预、自然资源与经济增长:基于中国地区层面的研究》,《中国工业经济》第7期。[Ding Juhong and Deng Kebin,2007,Government Intervene,Natural Resource and Economy Development:Based on Regional Panel Data Study of China,China Industrial Economy,7.]
[2]高越,2017,《人口老龄化影响了科技创新吗?---基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究》,《科技进步与对策》第17期。[Gao Yue,2017,Does Ageing Affect Technological Innovation?---An Empirical Study based on Provincial Panel Data of China,Science&Technology Progress and Policy,17.]
[3]韩振秋,2017,《人口老龄化与科技创新关系研究述评与优化》,《自然辩证法研究》第10期。[Han Zhenqiu,2017,Review and Optimization of the Relationship Between Population Aging and Scientific and Technological Innovation,Studies in Dialectics of Nature,10.]
[4]杰佛里·M·伍德里奇,2015,《计量经济学导论---现代观点(第五版)》,中国人民大学出版社。[Jeffrey M.Wooldridge,2015,Introductory Econometrics:A Morden Approach(Fifth Edition),China Renmin University Press]
[5]马宇、杜萌,2013,《对资源诅咒传导机制的实证研究---基于技术创新的视角》,《经济学动态》第1期。[Ma Yu and Du Meng,2013,Empirical Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Resource Curse---Based on the Perspective of Technological Innovation,Economic Perspectives,1.]
[6]邵帅,齐中英,2008,《西部地区的能源开发与经济增长---基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析》,《经济研究》第4期。[Shao Shuai and Qi Zhongying,2008,Energy Development and Economic Growth in Western China:An Empirical A-nalysis Based on the Resource Curse Hypothesis,Economic Research Journal,4.]
[7]田雪原、胡伟略、杨永超,1990,《日本人口老龄化与经济技术进步---赴日考察及学术交流报告》,《中国人口科学》第6期。[Tian Xueyuan,Hu Weilue and Yang Yongchao,1990,Japan's Aging Population and Economic and Technological Progress---Investigation and Academic Exchange Report in Japan,Population Science of China,6.]
[8]徐康宁、王剑,2006,《自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究》,《经济研究》第1期。[Xu Kangning and Wang Jian,2006,An Empirical Study of A Linkage Between Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Development,Economic Research Journal,1.]
[9]杨校美,2018,《人口老龄化会影响技术创新吗?---来自G20的经验证据》,《华东经济管理》第6期。[Yang Xiaomei,2018,Can Population Aging Affect Technological Innovation?---Empirical Evidence from G20,East China Economic Management,6.]
[10]姚东旻、宁静、韦诗言,2017,《老龄化如何影响科技创新》,《世界经济》第4期。[Yao Dongmin,Ning Jing and Wei Shiyan,2017,How Does the Population Aging Affect Technology Innovation?,The Journal of World Economy,4.]
[11]姚东旻、李三希、林思思,2015,《老龄化会影响科技创新吗----基于年龄结构与创新能力的文献分析》,《管理评论》第8期。[Yao Dongmin,Li Sanxi and Lin Sisi,2015,Aging Affects Innovation?---An Analysis Based on Literature,Management Review,8.]
[12]张晶,1996,《关于中国人口老龄化问题的研究》,《黑龙江社会科学》第4期。[Zhang Jing,1996,Research on China's Aging Population,Heilongjiang social science,4.]
[13]郑猛、高元元,2016,《人口红利、资源依赖与ICT产业发展---基于拉美国家的经验研究》,《拉丁美洲研究》第5期。[Zheng Meng and Gao Yuanyuan,2016,Demographic Dividend,Resource Dependence and the ICT Industry's Development in Latin America,Journal of Latin American Studies,5.]
[14]Ang J B.and Madsen J B.,2015,Imitation Versus Innovation in an Aging Society:International Evidence since1870,Journal of Population Economics,28(2):299-327.
[15]Ashworth M J.,2006,Preserving Knowledge Legacies:Workforce Aging,Turnover and Human Resource Issues in the US Electric Power Industry,International Journal of Human Resource Management,17(9):1659-1688.
[16]Auty R M.,1993,Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies:The Resource Curse Thesis,London:Routledge.
[17]Barron D N.,West E.and Hannan M T.,1994,A Time to Grow and a Time to Die:Growth and Mortality of Credit Unions in New York City,1914-1990,American Journal of Sociology,100(100):381-421.
[18]Bettencourt L M A.,Lobo J.and Helbing D.et al,2007,Growth,Innovation,Scaling,and the Pace of Life in Cities,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,104(17):7301-7306.
[19]Bloom D E.,2010,Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia,National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc.
[20]Cameron A C.and Trivedi P K.,2009,Microeconometrics Using Stata,College Station,TX:Stata Press.
[21]Feyrer J.,2008,Aggregate Evidence on the Link between Age Structure and Productivity,Population&Development Review,34(2):78-99.
[22]Friedberg R M.,2001,The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market,Quarterly Journal of Economics,116(4):1373-1408.
[23]Frosch K.and Tivig T.,2009,Age,Human Capital and the Geography of Innovation,Labour Markets and Demographic Change.VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften:137-146.
[24]Gylfason T.,2000,Natural Resources,Education,and Economic Development,European Economic Review,45(4):847-859.
[25]Hannan M T.,1998,Rethinking Age Dependence in Organizational Mortality:Logical Formalizations,American Journal of Sociology,104(1):126-164.
[26]Henseke G.,Tivig T.,2008,Age,Occupations,and Opportunities for Older Workers in Germany,Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory:1-30.
[27]Jones B F.,2004,Age and Great Invention,Review of Economics&Statistics,92(1):1-14.
[28]Lee R.and Mason A.,2010,Fertility,Human Capital,and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition,European Journal of Population,26(2):159-182.
[29]Lehman H C.,1966,The Most Creative Years of Engineers and other Technologists,The Journal of Genetic Psychology,108(2):263-277.
[30]Manton K G.,Lowrimore G R.and Ullian A D.,2007,Labor Force Participation and Human Capital Increases in an Aging Population and Implications for U.S.Research Investment,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,104(26):10802-10807.
[31]Matsuyama K.,1992,Agricultural Productivity,Comparative Advantage,and Economic Growth,Journal of Economic Theory,58(2):317-334.
[32]Meyer J.,2008,The Adoption of New Technologies and the Age Structure of the Workforce,Social Science Electronic Publishing.
[33]Meyer J.,2011,Workforce Age and Technology Adoption in Small and Medium-sized Service Firms,Small Business Economics,37(3):305-324.
[34]Prskawetz A.,Mahlberg B.and Skirbekk V.,2006,The Impact of Population Ageing on Innovation and Productivity Growth in Europe,European Commission,Brussels,Belgium:1-168.
[35]Rossman J.,A Study of the Childhood,Education,and Age of 710Inventors,Patent Office,(17):411-421.
[36]Sachs J D.and Warner A M.,2001,The Curse of Natural Resources,European economic review,(45):827-838.
[37]Skirbekk V.,2004,Age and Individual Productivity:A Literature Survey,Vienna Yearbook of Population Research,2(2004):133-153.
[38]Verhaeghen P.and Salthouse T A.,1997,Meta-analyses of Age-cognition Relations in Adulthood:Estimates of Linear and Nonlinear Age Effects and Structural Models,Psychological Bulletin,122(3):231-249.
(1)高越(2017)指出,20世纪70年代以来,随着专利法律逐步完善,知识产权得到有效保护,有力促进了自主创新,专利数量成为衡量科技创新的常用指标;杨校美(2018)研究认为,考虑到人口老龄化对科技创新的影响主要体现在对其产出的影响,故采用申请专利的申请数量来测度创新水平。
(1)本研究通过将传统Hausman和稳健Hausman检验结果进行对比后发现,东部地区传统Hausman检验结果应选择固定效应;而稳健Hausman检验结果则认为随机效应更加有效。可见,进行稳健型Hausman检验是合理以及十分必要的。
(1)Seed数值的设定作用在于使每次得到的标准误都相同,并且不同取值仅仅会导致标准误的微小变动,并不会产生实质性影响。
(1)根据表2最后一列估计结果计算而得:-0.2831/(-0.0019*2)≈11.9。
(2)同人口老龄化拐点计算方法一样:-0.077/(0.0017*2)≈22.65。
[2]高越,2017,《人口老龄化影响了科技创新吗?---基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究》,《科技进步与对策》第17期。[Gao Yue,2017,Does Ageing Affect Technological Innovation?---An Empirical Study based on Provincial Panel Data of China,Science&Technology Progress and Policy,17.]
[3]韩振秋,2017,《人口老龄化与科技创新关系研究述评与优化》,《自然辩证法研究》第10期。[Han Zhenqiu,2017,Review and Optimization of the Relationship Between Population Aging and Scientific and Technological Innovation,Studies in Dialectics of Nature,10.]
[4]杰佛里·M·伍德里奇,2015,《计量经济学导论---现代观点(第五版)》,中国人民大学出版社。[Jeffrey M.Wooldridge,2015,Introductory Econometrics:A Morden Approach(Fifth Edition),China Renmin University Press]
[5]马宇、杜萌,2013,《对资源诅咒传导机制的实证研究---基于技术创新的视角》,《经济学动态》第1期。[Ma Yu and Du Meng,2013,Empirical Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Resource Curse---Based on the Perspective of Technological Innovation,Economic Perspectives,1.]
[6]邵帅,齐中英,2008,《西部地区的能源开发与经济增长---基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析》,《经济研究》第4期。[Shao Shuai and Qi Zhongying,2008,Energy Development and Economic Growth in Western China:An Empirical A-nalysis Based on the Resource Curse Hypothesis,Economic Research Journal,4.]
[7]田雪原、胡伟略、杨永超,1990,《日本人口老龄化与经济技术进步---赴日考察及学术交流报告》,《中国人口科学》第6期。[Tian Xueyuan,Hu Weilue and Yang Yongchao,1990,Japan's Aging Population and Economic and Technological Progress---Investigation and Academic Exchange Report in Japan,Population Science of China,6.]
[8]徐康宁、王剑,2006,《自然资源丰裕程度与经济发展水平关系的研究》,《经济研究》第1期。[Xu Kangning and Wang Jian,2006,An Empirical Study of A Linkage Between Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Development,Economic Research Journal,1.]
[9]杨校美,2018,《人口老龄化会影响技术创新吗?---来自G20的经验证据》,《华东经济管理》第6期。[Yang Xiaomei,2018,Can Population Aging Affect Technological Innovation?---Empirical Evidence from G20,East China Economic Management,6.]
[10]姚东旻、宁静、韦诗言,2017,《老龄化如何影响科技创新》,《世界经济》第4期。[Yao Dongmin,Ning Jing and Wei Shiyan,2017,How Does the Population Aging Affect Technology Innovation?,The Journal of World Economy,4.]
[11]姚东旻、李三希、林思思,2015,《老龄化会影响科技创新吗----基于年龄结构与创新能力的文献分析》,《管理评论》第8期。[Yao Dongmin,Li Sanxi and Lin Sisi,2015,Aging Affects Innovation?---An Analysis Based on Literature,Management Review,8.]
[12]张晶,1996,《关于中国人口老龄化问题的研究》,《黑龙江社会科学》第4期。[Zhang Jing,1996,Research on China's Aging Population,Heilongjiang social science,4.]
[13]郑猛、高元元,2016,《人口红利、资源依赖与ICT产业发展---基于拉美国家的经验研究》,《拉丁美洲研究》第5期。[Zheng Meng and Gao Yuanyuan,2016,Demographic Dividend,Resource Dependence and the ICT Industry's Development in Latin America,Journal of Latin American Studies,5.]
[14]Ang J B.and Madsen J B.,2015,Imitation Versus Innovation in an Aging Society:International Evidence since1870,Journal of Population Economics,28(2):299-327.
[15]Ashworth M J.,2006,Preserving Knowledge Legacies:Workforce Aging,Turnover and Human Resource Issues in the US Electric Power Industry,International Journal of Human Resource Management,17(9):1659-1688.
[16]Auty R M.,1993,Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies:The Resource Curse Thesis,London:Routledge.
[17]Barron D N.,West E.and Hannan M T.,1994,A Time to Grow and a Time to Die:Growth and Mortality of Credit Unions in New York City,1914-1990,American Journal of Sociology,100(100):381-421.
[18]Bettencourt L M A.,Lobo J.and Helbing D.et al,2007,Growth,Innovation,Scaling,and the Pace of Life in Cities,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,104(17):7301-7306.
[19]Bloom D E.,2010,Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia,National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc.
[20]Cameron A C.and Trivedi P K.,2009,Microeconometrics Using Stata,College Station,TX:Stata Press.
[21]Feyrer J.,2008,Aggregate Evidence on the Link between Age Structure and Productivity,Population&Development Review,34(2):78-99.
[22]Friedberg R M.,2001,The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market,Quarterly Journal of Economics,116(4):1373-1408.
[23]Frosch K.and Tivig T.,2009,Age,Human Capital and the Geography of Innovation,Labour Markets and Demographic Change.VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften:137-146.
[24]Gylfason T.,2000,Natural Resources,Education,and Economic Development,European Economic Review,45(4):847-859.
[25]Hannan M T.,1998,Rethinking Age Dependence in Organizational Mortality:Logical Formalizations,American Journal of Sociology,104(1):126-164.
[26]Henseke G.,Tivig T.,2008,Age,Occupations,and Opportunities for Older Workers in Germany,Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory:1-30.
[27]Jones B F.,2004,Age and Great Invention,Review of Economics&Statistics,92(1):1-14.
[28]Lee R.and Mason A.,2010,Fertility,Human Capital,and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition,European Journal of Population,26(2):159-182.
[29]Lehman H C.,1966,The Most Creative Years of Engineers and other Technologists,The Journal of Genetic Psychology,108(2):263-277.
[30]Manton K G.,Lowrimore G R.and Ullian A D.,2007,Labor Force Participation and Human Capital Increases in an Aging Population and Implications for U.S.Research Investment,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,104(26):10802-10807.
[31]Matsuyama K.,1992,Agricultural Productivity,Comparative Advantage,and Economic Growth,Journal of Economic Theory,58(2):317-334.
[32]Meyer J.,2008,The Adoption of New Technologies and the Age Structure of the Workforce,Social Science Electronic Publishing.
[33]Meyer J.,2011,Workforce Age and Technology Adoption in Small and Medium-sized Service Firms,Small Business Economics,37(3):305-324.
[34]Prskawetz A.,Mahlberg B.and Skirbekk V.,2006,The Impact of Population Ageing on Innovation and Productivity Growth in Europe,European Commission,Brussels,Belgium:1-168.
[35]Rossman J.,A Study of the Childhood,Education,and Age of 710Inventors,Patent Office,(17):411-421.
[36]Sachs J D.and Warner A M.,2001,The Curse of Natural Resources,European economic review,(45):827-838.
[37]Skirbekk V.,2004,Age and Individual Productivity:A Literature Survey,Vienna Yearbook of Population Research,2(2004):133-153.
[38]Verhaeghen P.and Salthouse T A.,1997,Meta-analyses of Age-cognition Relations in Adulthood:Estimates of Linear and Nonlinear Age Effects and Structural Models,Psychological Bulletin,122(3):231-249.
(1)高越(2017)指出,20世纪70年代以来,随着专利法律逐步完善,知识产权得到有效保护,有力促进了自主创新,专利数量成为衡量科技创新的常用指标;杨校美(2018)研究认为,考虑到人口老龄化对科技创新的影响主要体现在对其产出的影响,故采用申请专利的申请数量来测度创新水平。
(1)本研究通过将传统Hausman和稳健Hausman检验结果进行对比后发现,东部地区传统Hausman检验结果应选择固定效应;而稳健Hausman检验结果则认为随机效应更加有效。可见,进行稳健型Hausman检验是合理以及十分必要的。
(1)Seed数值的设定作用在于使每次得到的标准误都相同,并且不同取值仅仅会导致标准误的微小变动,并不会产生实质性影响。
(1)根据表2最后一列估计结果计算而得:-0.2831/(-0.0019*2)≈11.9。
(2)同人口老龄化拐点计算方法一样:-0.077/(0.0017*2)≈22.65。