摘要
科技创新是提高社会生产力和综合国力的战略支撑,亦是保持经济高质量增长的有效途径。当前,中国人口老龄化和资源依赖日益凸显对科技创新的影响尤为突出。文章选取2006-2015年中国30个省际数据为研究样本,考察了人口老龄化、资源依赖对科技创新的影响及传导机制。研究结果表明:人口老龄化与科技创新并非保持单一线性关系,而是呈现显著先促进、后阻碍的"倒U型"趋势;资源依赖与科技创新同样呈现非单调线性关系,而是显现先阻碍、后促进的"微笑"型趋势;进一步来看,上述效应通过人口老龄化和资源依赖对人力资本的影响而传导。基于此中国未来应增强老龄人人力资本投资意愿和降低投资成本,同时进一步加快优化资源型产业内部结构,有效降低老龄化及资源依赖对科技创新的直接和间接影响。
Scientific &technological innovation provides the strategic support to improving social productivity and overall national strength,as well as the effective way to maintain high quality economic growth.At present,the ever-increasing seriousness of the problems of aging population and resources dependence is exerting a significant impact on scientific &technological innovation in China.This paper,by using China's provincial data from 2006 to 2015,attempts to analyze the influence and transmission mechanism of the problem.The conclusion shows that the relationship between aging population and scientific &technological innovation and that between resource dependence and scientific &technological innovation are respectively inverted U-shaped and'smile'-shaped.As the direct effects of the above are transmitted through indirect effects on human capital,both effects need to be reduced for scientific &technological innovation by trying to increase willingness but decrease cost for aging people to invest in human capital,as well as accelerating the optimization of the internal structure for the resource-based industries.
引文
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(1)高越(2017)指出,20世纪70年代以来,随着专利法律逐步完善,知识产权得到有效保护,有力促进了自主创新,专利数量成为衡量科技创新的常用指标;杨校美(2018)研究认为,考虑到人口老龄化对科技创新的影响主要体现在对其产出的影响,故采用申请专利的申请数量来测度创新水平。
(1)本研究通过将传统Hausman和稳健Hausman检验结果进行对比后发现,东部地区传统Hausman检验结果应选择固定效应;而稳健Hausman检验结果则认为随机效应更加有效。可见,进行稳健型Hausman检验是合理以及十分必要的。
(1)Seed数值的设定作用在于使每次得到的标准误都相同,并且不同取值仅仅会导致标准误的微小变动,并不会产生实质性影响。
(1)根据表2最后一列估计结果计算而得:-0.2831/(-0.0019*2)≈11.9。
(2)同人口老龄化拐点计算方法一样:-0.077/(0.0017*2)≈22.65。