农户农林复合经营意愿影响因素分析
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摘要
基于福建省6个县(市) 30个村300位农户的调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型识别影响农户农林复合经营意愿的因素,结果表明:耕地面积、项目支持对农户农林复合经营意愿具有显著的正向影响,而户主年龄、家庭劳动力人数却具有显著的负向影响。基于此,从农户特征、资源禀赋特征、技术特征、政府出台政策4个方面提出促进农林复合经营的政策建议:应培养新型职业农民,带动年龄较大户主转变观念,助力农林复合经营发展;规范和鼓励林地、耕地流转或联户经营,适度扩大土地经营规模,促进形成农林复合经营规模经济,推动农林复合经营产业化发展;通过项目支持建设示范基地,带动农户参与农林复合经营,促进示范基地健康有序发展,创新技术推广,推动科技成果转化;调整资金补贴,规范资金有效使用和统筹管理。
⑴ Background——Agroforestry is widely practiced around the world. It is an effective way to gain forest ecological,economic and social benefits. At the same time,agroforestry is an effective way to achieve green development and increase farmers' income.⑵ Methods——In order to measure the main influencing factors of farmers' willingness to participate in agroforestry,the subjective probability of farmers' willingness to participate in agroforestry has two situations:"willing to participate"and"unwilling to participate". Farmers make the best choice on the basis of rational and comprehensive weighing of various influencing factors,which is a typical dual decision-making problem. Therefore,the Logistic model is used.⑶ Results——The analysis results show that the correlation coefficient of cultivated land area,project support,head of household and number of family laborers are 0. 098,0. 437,-0. 045 and-0. 168,respectively,indicating that the farmer owns the cultivated land area has a significant promotion effect,the project support has a certain degree of impact,the head of household has a significant negative impact,the number of household laborers has a certain degree of negative impact on farmers' willingness to participate in the agroforestry technology. Farmers most want the government to introduce policies for subsidies,followed by technology promotion and development of professional cooperatives,and origin protection is the most urgent policy demand for product supervision,so financial subsidies and protection of origin are the key.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The influence of the number of laborers in the family on the agroforestry is controversial. Whether it is caused by endogenous problems is an issue that should be considered in future research. Fund subsidy is the basic guarantee for the development of agroforestry. Project guidance and technology promotion are strong support for the development of agroforestry. Lack of financial subsidy,lack of project support,and lack of land resources have become major obstacles to the development of agroforestry.Based on this,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on promoting agroforestry from four aspects: farmer characteristics,resource endowment characteristics,technical characteristics,and policies issued by the government. From the perspective of farmers' characteristic vector,the rural population is aging,and the talents for rural development are in short supply. Especially,there is a shortage of new professional farmers who can promote technology,introduce projects and understand capital operation for the development of agroforestry. Farmers with older households have lower willingness to participate in agroforestry. Therefore,we should cultivate new professional farmers,promote older households to change their ideas,and help the development of agroforestry. From the perspective of resource endowment characteristics,we should standardize and encourage the transfer of forestland,cultivated land or joint operation,expand the scale of land management appropriately,promote the formation of a scale economy of agroforestry,and promote the industrialization of agroforestry. From the technical characteristics,strengthening the scientific and technological research and development of agroforestry and promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements in agroforestry are effective ways to improve the market base and competitiveness of agroforestry products. From the perspective of policies issued by the government,we should adjust fund subsidy to support the development of agroforestry. We should adjust the fund subsidy,implement the mode of "specialized projects + task list",and standardize the effective use and overall management of funds.
⑴ Background——Agroforestry is widely practiced around the world. It is an effective way to gain forest ecological,economic and social benefits. At the same time,agroforestry is an effective way to achieve green development and increase farmers' income.⑵ Methods——In order to measure the main influencing factors of farmers' willingness to participate in agroforestry,the subjective probability of farmers' willingness to participate in agroforestry has two situations:"willing to participate"and"unwilling to participate". Farmers make the best choice on the basis of rational and comprehensive weighing of various influencing factors,which is a typical dual decision-making problem. Therefore,the Logistic model is used.⑶ Results——The analysis results show that the correlation coefficient of cultivated land area,project support,head of household and number of family laborers are 0. 098,0. 437,-0. 045 and-0. 168,respectively,indicating that the farmer owns the cultivated land area has a significant promotion effect,the project support has a certain degree of impact,the head of household has a significant negative impact,the number of household laborers has a certain degree of negative impact on farmers' willingness to participate in the agroforestry technology. Farmers most want the government to introduce policies for subsidies,followed by technology promotion and development of professional cooperatives,and origin protection is the most urgent policy demand for product supervision,so financial subsidies and protection of origin are the key.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The influence of the number of laborers in the family on the agroforestry is controversial. Whether it is caused by endogenous problems is an issue that should be considered in future research. Fund subsidy is the basic guarantee for the development of agroforestry. Project guidance and technology promotion are strong support for the development of agroforestry. Lack of financial subsidy,lack of project support,and lack of land resources have become major obstacles to the development of agroforestry.Based on this,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on promoting agroforestry from four aspects: farmer characteristics,resource endowment characteristics,technical characteristics,and policies issued by the government. From the perspective of farmers' characteristic vector,the rural population is aging,and the talents for rural development are in short supply. Especially,there is a shortage of new professional farmers who can promote technology,introduce projects and understand capital operation for the development of agroforestry. Farmers with older households have lower willingness to participate in agroforestry. Therefore,we should cultivate new professional farmers,promote older households to change their ideas,and help the development of agroforestry. From the perspective of resource endowment characteristics,we should standardize and encourage the transfer of forestland,cultivated land or joint operation,expand the scale of land management appropriately,promote the formation of a scale economy of agroforestry,and promote the industrialization of agroforestry. From the technical characteristics,strengthening the scientific and technological research and development of agroforestry and promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements in agroforestry are effective ways to improve the market base and competitiveness of agroforestry products. From the perspective of policies issued by the government,we should adjust fund subsidy to support the development of agroforestry. We should adjust the fund subsidy,implement the mode of "specialized projects + task list",and standardize the effective use and overall management of funds.
引文
[1]洪传春,刘某承,李文华.农林复合经营:中国生态农业发展的有效模式[J].农村经济,2015(3):37-41.
[2] FILIUS A M. Economic aspects of agroforestry[J]. Agroforestry Systems,1982,1(1):29-39.
[3] FANG S,Xu X,Yu X,et al. Poplar in wetland agroforestry:A case study of ecological benefits,site productivity,and economics[J]. Wetlands Ecology and Management,2005,13(1):93-104.
[4]陈代昌.湖南省农林复合经营的主要模式[J].生态经济(中文版),1996(1):53-55.
[5]卞莹莹.荒漠草原区农林牧复合系统结构与模式优化研究[D].银川:宁夏大学,2015:1-100.
[6]蔡鸿宇,卞海阳,陈楠,等.我国林农复合经营研究进展与展望[J].甘肃农业科技,2016(4):62-65.
[7]陈静,张虹鸥,吴旗韬.广东山区林下经济发展初探[J].林业经济问题,2014,34(3):268-274.
[8]王玉芳,郭娟,周妹,等.林下经济发展促进了林区经济转型吗?以黑龙江省国有林区为例[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(3):10-16.
[9]马明芹,郑德胜.重点国有林区林下经济发展问题研究:以伊春为例[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(3):1-9.
[10]林洪平,邹惠冰,黄安胜,等.南方集体林区林下经济补助资金使用效率评价:以A省为例[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(6):57-61.
[11]刘兴明.三明市国有林场林下经济发展现状及对策[J].中国林业经济,2018(3):24-25.
[12]吕洁华,刘艳迪,付思琦,等.黑龙江省林下经济优势产业的选择分:基于偏离-份额分析法[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):72-77.
[13]王梓,张平,全良.黑龙江省林下经济产业集群发展影响因素研究[J].林业经济,2018,40(8):61-67.
[14]丁秀玲,薛彩霞,高建中.林业科技服务对农户经营林下经济行为的影响研究[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(5):52-58.
[15] MWASE W,SEFASI A,NJOLOMA J,et al. Factors affecting adoption of agroforestry and evergreen agriculture in southern Africa[J]. Environment&Natural Resources Research,2015,5(2):148-157.
[16] FONTE S J,SIX J. Earthworms and litter management contributions to ecosystem services in a tropical agroforestry system[J]. Ecological Applications,2010,20(4):1061-1073.
[17]洪传春.基于典型个案调查的林参复合经营现状与困难分析[J].中国林业经济,2018(2):27-30.
[18]胡晓君,续竞秦,何丹华,等.浙江省集体林区农户林下经济经营意愿及其影响因素[J].浙江农林大学学报,2018,35(3):537-542.
[19]窦亚权,李娅.云南少数民族地区林下经济发展模式研究[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(4):86-91.
[20]王育平,苏时鹏,王团真,等.福建农户林下经济发展抉择的影响因素:基于501户调查数据[J].林业经济问题,2015,35(6):534-538.
[21]韩锋.林下经济发展及对林农影响研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2015:1-186.
[22]洪传春.农户实施林参复合经营意愿影响因素的实证分析:以辽宁省本溪满族自治县为例[J].中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2018,12(1):45-49.
[23] NAIR P K R. An introduction to agroforestry[M]. Berlin:Springer Netherlands,1993:60-69.
[24] SANCHEZ P A. Science in agroforestry[J]. Agroforestry Systems,1995,30(1-2):5-55.
[25] AJAYI O C,FRANZEL S,KUNTASHULA E,et al. Adoption of improved fallow technology for soil fertility management in Zambia:Empirical studies and emerging issues[J]. Agroforestry Systems,2003,59(3):317-326.
[26]杨唯一.农户技术创新采纳决策行为研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015:1-131.
[27]林毅夫,沈明高.我国农业科技投入选择的探析[J].农业经济问题,1991(7):9-13.
[28] ATANU S,LOVE H A,SCHWART R. Adoption of emerging technologies under output uncertainty[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1994,76(4):836-846.
[29] BARKLEY A P,PORTER L L. The determinants of wheat variety selection in Kansas,1974 to 1993[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1996,78(1):202-211.
[30]蒋国良,袁超,史景钊,等.生物质转化技术与应用研究进展[J].河南农业大学学报,2005,39(4):464-471.
[31]陈桂权,曾雄生.我国农业轮作休耕制度的建立:来自农业发展历史的经验和启示[J].地方财政研究,2016(7):87-104.
[32] HEIMLICH R E.美国以自然资源保护为宗旨的土地休耕经验[J].绿色中国,2008(5):72-80.
[33] MERCER D E. Adoption of agroforestry innovations in the tropics:A review[J]. Agroforestry Systems,2004,61(3),311-328.
[34]周玉新,岳楚乔,周健芝,等.农户林农复合经营意愿的影响因素分析:基于Logistic和分位数回归模型[J].林业经济,2016(7):46-64.
[35]李文明,罗丹,陈洁,等.农业适度规模经营:规模效益、产出水平与生产成本:基于1552个水稻种植户的调查数据[J].中国农村经济,2015(3):4-17.
[36]彭斌.集体林改背景下的广西林下经济发展模式研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2014:1-154.
[37]廖西元,王志刚,朱述斌,等.基于农户视角的农业技术推广行为和推广绩效的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2008(7):4-13.
[38]寿韬,余树全.林业技术推广供需双重不足的原因探析[J].浙江农林大学学报,2003,20(4):364-368.
[39]陈红,彭岳.黑龙江省林下经济发展与资金支持的关系研究[J].中国林业经济,2018(3):9-12.
[2] FILIUS A M. Economic aspects of agroforestry[J]. Agroforestry Systems,1982,1(1):29-39.
[3] FANG S,Xu X,Yu X,et al. Poplar in wetland agroforestry:A case study of ecological benefits,site productivity,and economics[J]. Wetlands Ecology and Management,2005,13(1):93-104.
[4]陈代昌.湖南省农林复合经营的主要模式[J].生态经济(中文版),1996(1):53-55.
[5]卞莹莹.荒漠草原区农林牧复合系统结构与模式优化研究[D].银川:宁夏大学,2015:1-100.
[6]蔡鸿宇,卞海阳,陈楠,等.我国林农复合经营研究进展与展望[J].甘肃农业科技,2016(4):62-65.
[7]陈静,张虹鸥,吴旗韬.广东山区林下经济发展初探[J].林业经济问题,2014,34(3):268-274.
[8]王玉芳,郭娟,周妹,等.林下经济发展促进了林区经济转型吗?以黑龙江省国有林区为例[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(3):10-16.
[9]马明芹,郑德胜.重点国有林区林下经济发展问题研究:以伊春为例[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(3):1-9.
[10]林洪平,邹惠冰,黄安胜,等.南方集体林区林下经济补助资金使用效率评价:以A省为例[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(6):57-61.
[11]刘兴明.三明市国有林场林下经济发展现状及对策[J].中国林业经济,2018(3):24-25.
[12]吕洁华,刘艳迪,付思琦,等.黑龙江省林下经济优势产业的选择分:基于偏离-份额分析法[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):72-77.
[13]王梓,张平,全良.黑龙江省林下经济产业集群发展影响因素研究[J].林业经济,2018,40(8):61-67.
[14]丁秀玲,薛彩霞,高建中.林业科技服务对农户经营林下经济行为的影响研究[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(5):52-58.
[15] MWASE W,SEFASI A,NJOLOMA J,et al. Factors affecting adoption of agroforestry and evergreen agriculture in southern Africa[J]. Environment&Natural Resources Research,2015,5(2):148-157.
[16] FONTE S J,SIX J. Earthworms and litter management contributions to ecosystem services in a tropical agroforestry system[J]. Ecological Applications,2010,20(4):1061-1073.
[17]洪传春.基于典型个案调查的林参复合经营现状与困难分析[J].中国林业经济,2018(2):27-30.
[18]胡晓君,续竞秦,何丹华,等.浙江省集体林区农户林下经济经营意愿及其影响因素[J].浙江农林大学学报,2018,35(3):537-542.
[19]窦亚权,李娅.云南少数民族地区林下经济发展模式研究[J].林业经济问题,2017,37(4):86-91.
[20]王育平,苏时鹏,王团真,等.福建农户林下经济发展抉择的影响因素:基于501户调查数据[J].林业经济问题,2015,35(6):534-538.
[21]韩锋.林下经济发展及对林农影响研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2015:1-186.
[22]洪传春.农户实施林参复合经营意愿影响因素的实证分析:以辽宁省本溪满族自治县为例[J].中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2018,12(1):45-49.
[23] NAIR P K R. An introduction to agroforestry[M]. Berlin:Springer Netherlands,1993:60-69.
[24] SANCHEZ P A. Science in agroforestry[J]. Agroforestry Systems,1995,30(1-2):5-55.
[25] AJAYI O C,FRANZEL S,KUNTASHULA E,et al. Adoption of improved fallow technology for soil fertility management in Zambia:Empirical studies and emerging issues[J]. Agroforestry Systems,2003,59(3):317-326.
[26]杨唯一.农户技术创新采纳决策行为研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015:1-131.
[27]林毅夫,沈明高.我国农业科技投入选择的探析[J].农业经济问题,1991(7):9-13.
[28] ATANU S,LOVE H A,SCHWART R. Adoption of emerging technologies under output uncertainty[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1994,76(4):836-846.
[29] BARKLEY A P,PORTER L L. The determinants of wheat variety selection in Kansas,1974 to 1993[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1996,78(1):202-211.
[30]蒋国良,袁超,史景钊,等.生物质转化技术与应用研究进展[J].河南农业大学学报,2005,39(4):464-471.
[31]陈桂权,曾雄生.我国农业轮作休耕制度的建立:来自农业发展历史的经验和启示[J].地方财政研究,2016(7):87-104.
[32] HEIMLICH R E.美国以自然资源保护为宗旨的土地休耕经验[J].绿色中国,2008(5):72-80.
[33] MERCER D E. Adoption of agroforestry innovations in the tropics:A review[J]. Agroforestry Systems,2004,61(3),311-328.
[34]周玉新,岳楚乔,周健芝,等.农户林农复合经营意愿的影响因素分析:基于Logistic和分位数回归模型[J].林业经济,2016(7):46-64.
[35]李文明,罗丹,陈洁,等.农业适度规模经营:规模效益、产出水平与生产成本:基于1552个水稻种植户的调查数据[J].中国农村经济,2015(3):4-17.
[36]彭斌.集体林改背景下的广西林下经济发展模式研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2014:1-154.
[37]廖西元,王志刚,朱述斌,等.基于农户视角的农业技术推广行为和推广绩效的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2008(7):4-13.
[38]寿韬,余树全.林业技术推广供需双重不足的原因探析[J].浙江农林大学学报,2003,20(4):364-368.
[39]陈红,彭岳.黑龙江省林下经济发展与资金支持的关系研究[J].中国林业经济,2018(3):9-12.