中国重要旅游城市雾霾时空特征
|
摘要
依托中国15个重要旅游城市,基于雾霾主导因素PM2.5观测数据、遥感气溶胶数据,运用土地利用回归方法模拟绘制PM2.5时空分布图,分析中国重要旅游城市PM2.5质量浓度的时空分异特征。结果表明:1)2013―2015年中国重要旅游城市PM2.5年均质量浓度总体呈逐年下降趋势,且明显呈现夏季低、冬季高、春秋季居中的季节变化特征;2)重要旅游城市PM2.5质量浓度在不同等级城市中存在明显差异,其PM2.5质量浓度整体规律为副省级市>直辖市>地级市;3)月均尺度上各重要旅游城市的宜游时间主要集中在4―9月,且2015年春冬季月份宜游城市明显增多;宜游时间较长的城市主要分布在空气质量优良的东南部沿海和森林覆盖率较高地区的地级市和部分副省级市,中西部地区和长三角地区的城市宜游时间则相对较短。
Based on the discrete in situ PM2.5 observed data, AOD data, as well as the meteorological data, in this study the temporal-spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration at monthly scale in fifteen key tourism cities of China for years 2013, 2014, 2015 was firstly simulated by using the land use regression(LUR) method. Then, the seasonal and annual PM2.5 concentrations across the entire study period were consequently produced based on these monthly PM2.5 distribution maps with the aid of spatial overlay and raster calculation techniques in Arc GIS tool. Finally, the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of PM2.5 concentrations at scales of monthly, seasonal and annual in each key tourism city were statistically analyzed. Generally, the annual average PM2.5 concentrations of the fifteen key tourism cities showed a gradually declining trend from 2013 to 2015 with significantly higher values in winter and lower values in summer. Spring and autumn were usually with annual average PM2.5 concentrations between those of winter and summer. Meanwhile, the declining trend of PM2.5 concentrations could also be clearly observed at seasonal and monthly scale except a little abnormal increase in the summer of 2014. Moreover,comparisons of the PM2.5 concentrations at the three time scales among the fifteen key tourism cities in this study revealed that the deputy provincial cities were usually with higher PM2.5 concentrations, while the prefecture level cities were with the lowest values, and the values for municipalities were in the middle. Additionally, as for the suitable time for traveling in terms of air quality, the months from April to November were the good time window for travel for the fifteen tourism cities, especially during the period from July to September. However, the suitable travel time window obviously increased in spring and winter of 2015 with the air quality improvement. Spatially,the deputy provincial cities and prefecture-level cities located in southeast coastal areas and high forest coverage rate areas usually had longer suitable travel time, such as Kunming, Sanya, Xiamen and Guangzhou. Inversely, the suitable travel time was relatively short in the central and western regions as well as the Yangtze River Delta region such as Wuhan, Chengdu and Shanghai. In sum, as the first quantitative analysis of the suitable travel time of tourism city in China with spatial mapping method, this study would provide helpful suggestions for tourist decision in choosing the suitable travel time for specific tourism city. And this would be a significant extension of current research fields of urban tourism, and would consequently promote researches on the influences of inner driving mechanism of haze pollution on urban tourism, as well as on the tourism product structure and tourism operation.
Based on the discrete in situ PM2.5 observed data, AOD data, as well as the meteorological data, in this study the temporal-spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration at monthly scale in fifteen key tourism cities of China for years 2013, 2014, 2015 was firstly simulated by using the land use regression(LUR) method. Then, the seasonal and annual PM2.5 concentrations across the entire study period were consequently produced based on these monthly PM2.5 distribution maps with the aid of spatial overlay and raster calculation techniques in Arc GIS tool. Finally, the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of PM2.5 concentrations at scales of monthly, seasonal and annual in each key tourism city were statistically analyzed. Generally, the annual average PM2.5 concentrations of the fifteen key tourism cities showed a gradually declining trend from 2013 to 2015 with significantly higher values in winter and lower values in summer. Spring and autumn were usually with annual average PM2.5 concentrations between those of winter and summer. Meanwhile, the declining trend of PM2.5 concentrations could also be clearly observed at seasonal and monthly scale except a little abnormal increase in the summer of 2014. Moreover,comparisons of the PM2.5 concentrations at the three time scales among the fifteen key tourism cities in this study revealed that the deputy provincial cities were usually with higher PM2.5 concentrations, while the prefecture level cities were with the lowest values, and the values for municipalities were in the middle. Additionally, as for the suitable time for traveling in terms of air quality, the months from April to November were the good time window for travel for the fifteen tourism cities, especially during the period from July to September. However, the suitable travel time window obviously increased in spring and winter of 2015 with the air quality improvement. Spatially,the deputy provincial cities and prefecture-level cities located in southeast coastal areas and high forest coverage rate areas usually had longer suitable travel time, such as Kunming, Sanya, Xiamen and Guangzhou. Inversely, the suitable travel time was relatively short in the central and western regions as well as the Yangtze River Delta region such as Wuhan, Chengdu and Shanghai. In sum, as the first quantitative analysis of the suitable travel time of tourism city in China with spatial mapping method, this study would provide helpful suggestions for tourist decision in choosing the suitable travel time for specific tourism city. And this would be a significant extension of current research fields of urban tourism, and would consequently promote researches on the influences of inner driving mechanism of haze pollution on urban tourism, as well as on the tourism product structure and tourism operation.
引文
白先达,2014.桂林霾特征分析及防御措施研究.中国气象学会年会s6大气成分与天气.[BAI Xianda,2014.Analysis of Haze Characteristics and Defense Measures in Guilin.China Meteorological Society Annual Meeting s6 Atmospheric Composition and Weather.]
CAREY Goh,2012.Exploring impact of climate on tourism demand.Annals of Tourism Research,39(4):1859-1883.
陈仁杰,阚海东,2014.雾霾污染与人体健康.自然杂志,35(5):342-344.[CHEN Renjie,KAN Haidong,2014.Haze/fog and human health:A literature review.Chinese Journal of Nature,35(5):342-344.]
程德年,周永博,魏向东,吴建,2015.基于负面IPA的入境游客对华环境风险感知研究.旅游学刊,30(1):54-62.[CHENG Denian,ZHOU Yongbo,WEI Xiangdong,WU Jian,2015.A study on the environmental risk perceptions of inbound tourists for China using negative IPA assessment.Tourism Tribute,30(1):54-62.]
程励,张同颢,付阳,2015.城市居民雾霾天气认知及其对城市旅游目的地选择倾向的影响.旅游学刊,30(10):37-47.[CHENG Li,ZHANG Tonghao,FU Yang,2015.Urban residents’cognition of Haze-fog weather and its impact on their urban tourism destination choice.Tourism Tribute,30(10):37-47.]
高广阔,马利霞,2016.雾霾污染对入境客流量影响的统计研究.旅游研究,8(4):77-82.[GAO Guangkuo,MA Lixia,2016.Statistical study of the impact of haze pollution on incoming traffic.Tourism Research,8(4):77-82.]
郭新彪,魏红英,2013.大气PM2.5对健康影响的研究进展.科学通报,58(13):1171-1177.[GUO Xinbiao,Wei Hongying,2013.Progress on the health effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution.Chinese Science Bulletin,58(13):1171-1177.]
姬露露,陈长坤,王楠楠,2014.我国六大中心城市PM2.5污染特征及诱因对比分析.灾害学,29(4):230-234.[JI Lulu,CHEN Changkun,WANG Nannan,2014.Comparison and Analysis on Characteristics and Causes of PM2.5 Pollution in Six Typical Central Cities of China.Journal of Catastrophology,29(4):230-234.]
贾静,2015.基于雾霾现象浅谈旅游可持续发展.科技创新导报,26(27):136-138.[JIA Jing,2015.Discussion on sustainable development of tourism based on haze.Science and Technology Innovation Herald,26(27):136-138.]
李静,Philip L PEARCE,吴必虎,Alastair M MORRISON,2015.雾霾对来京旅游者风险感知及旅游体验的影响--基于结构方程模型的中外旅游者对比研究.旅游学刊,30(10):48-59.[LI Jing,Philip L PEARCE,WU bihu,ALASTAIR M MORRISON,2015.The impact of smog on risk perception and satisfaction of international and domestic tourists in Beijing.Tourism Tribute,30(10):48-59.]
凌茜,杨韵,梁韵莹,2015.城市空气质量对其旅游活动的影响研究-基于宏、微观视角.北京第二外国语学院学报,(5):1-7,32.[LINGQian,YANG Yun,LIANG Yunying,2015.An Empirical Study on the Impact of Urban Air Quality on Tourist Activities:From the Perspective of Macro and Micro.Journal of Beijing International Studies University,(5):1-7,32.]
MUELLER Alexandra S,TRICK Lana M,2012.Driving in fog:The effects of driving experience and visibility on speed compensation and hazard avoidance.Accident Analysis and Prevention,48(9):472-479.
马丽梅,张晓,2014.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响.中国工业经济,(4):19-31.[MA Limei,ZHANG Xiao,2014.The Spatial Effect of China’s Haze Pollution and the Impact from Economic Change and Energy Structure.China Industrial Economics,(4):19-31.]
NEIDELL M J,2004.Air pollution,Health,and socio-economic status:The effect of outdoor air quality on childhood asthma.Journal of Health Economics,23(23):1209-1236.
POPE III C,DOCKERY D,2006.Health effects of fine particulate air pollution:lines that connect.Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association,56(6):707-708.
POUDYAL N C,PAUDEL B,GREEN G T,2013.Estimating the impact of impaired visibility on the demand for visits to national parks.Tourism Economics,19(2):433-452.
彭建,郭思远,裴亚楠,张松,2016.大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知和态度研究.中国人口·资源与环境,26(10):168-176.[PENGJian,GUO Siyuan,PEI Yanan,ZHANG Song,2016.Mainland Chinese residents’perception of tourism impacted by haze in Beijing and their attitudes.China Population,Resources and Environment,26(10):168-176.]
谭金华,石京,2013.高速公路间断放行的能耗和排放影响.清华大学学报(自然科学版),53(4):499-502,508.[TAN Jinhua,SHI Jing,2013.Impact of intermittent vehicle release on freeway energy dissipation and emissions.Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology,53(4):499-502,508.]
唐承财,马蕾,宋昌耀,2017.雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗?--基于面板数据的实证检验.干旱区资源与环境,31(1):192-197.[TANG Chengcai,MA Lei,SONG Changyao,2017.Do fog and haze affect Beijing inbound tourism?-An empirical study based on Panel data.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,31(1):192-197.]
阎友兵,张静,2016.雾霾天气对北京市入境旅游的影响研究.旅游研究,8(4):83-87.[YAN Youbin,ZHANG Jing,2016.Study of smog weather’s impact on the inbound tourism of Beijing city.Tourism Research,8(4):83-87.]
ZHANG A P,ZHONG L S,XU Y,WANG H,DANG L J,2015.Tourists'perception of haze pollution and the potential impacts on travel:reshaping the features of tourism seasonality in Beijing,China.Sustainability,7(3):2397-2414.
ZOU B,LUO Y,WAN N,ZHENG Z,STEMBERG T,2015.Performance comparison of LUR and OK in PM2.5 concentration mapping:a multidimensional perspective.Scientific Reports,5(5):8698.DOI:10.1038/srep08698.
展云逸,尹海涛,2017.空气质量对我国旅游城市的影响分析--基于2005―2014年全国135个旅游城市的面板数据.西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),(1):88-94.[ZHAN Yunyi,YIN Haitao,2017.On Impact of Local Air Quality on Tourism Cities in China:Based on2005-2014 Panel Data of 135 Tourism Cities in China.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition),(1):88-94.]
张小曳,孙俊英,王亚强,李卫军,张蔷,王炜罡,权建农,曹国良,王继志,杨元琴,张养梅,2013.我国雾-霾成因及其治理的思考.科学通报,58(13):1178-1187.[ZHANG Xiaoye,SUN Junying,WANG Yaqiang,LI Weijun,ZHANG Qiang,WANG Weigang,QUANJiannong,CAO Guoliang,WANG Jizhi,YANG Yuanqin,ZHANGYangmei,2013.Factors contributing to haze and fog in China.Chinese Science Bulletin,58(13):1178-1187.]
张炀玮,徐玲,魏月琴,2015.从雾霾看外资企业对当地经济环境的影响--以苏州为例.江苏商论,(5):250-251.[ZHANG Yangwei,XU Ling,WEI Yueqin,2015.The Influence of Foreign Enterprises on the Local Economic Environment from the Perspective of Haze-A Case Study of Suzhou City.Jiangsu Commercial Forum,(5):250-251.]
钟林生,唐承财,成升魁,2011.全球气候变化对中国旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨.中国软件学,(2):34-41.[ZHONG Linsheng,TANGChengcai,CHENG Shengkui,2016.The impact of global climate change on tourism industry in China and adaptive strategies.China Soft Science,(2):34-41.]
邹晨曦,2011.沪宁高速公路雾灾的分布特征与风险评价[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.[ZOU Chenxi,2011.The Distribution Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Fog Disaster in Huning Highway[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology.]
(1)数据来源:中国环境监测总站http://106.37.208.233:20035/;
(2)http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/data/search.html;
(3)http://cdc.nmic.cn/home.do;
(4)http://www.dsac.cn/;
(5)http://www.resdc.cn。
CAREY Goh,2012.Exploring impact of climate on tourism demand.Annals of Tourism Research,39(4):1859-1883.
陈仁杰,阚海东,2014.雾霾污染与人体健康.自然杂志,35(5):342-344.[CHEN Renjie,KAN Haidong,2014.Haze/fog and human health:A literature review.Chinese Journal of Nature,35(5):342-344.]
程德年,周永博,魏向东,吴建,2015.基于负面IPA的入境游客对华环境风险感知研究.旅游学刊,30(1):54-62.[CHENG Denian,ZHOU Yongbo,WEI Xiangdong,WU Jian,2015.A study on the environmental risk perceptions of inbound tourists for China using negative IPA assessment.Tourism Tribute,30(1):54-62.]
程励,张同颢,付阳,2015.城市居民雾霾天气认知及其对城市旅游目的地选择倾向的影响.旅游学刊,30(10):37-47.[CHENG Li,ZHANG Tonghao,FU Yang,2015.Urban residents’cognition of Haze-fog weather and its impact on their urban tourism destination choice.Tourism Tribute,30(10):37-47.]
高广阔,马利霞,2016.雾霾污染对入境客流量影响的统计研究.旅游研究,8(4):77-82.[GAO Guangkuo,MA Lixia,2016.Statistical study of the impact of haze pollution on incoming traffic.Tourism Research,8(4):77-82.]
郭新彪,魏红英,2013.大气PM2.5对健康影响的研究进展.科学通报,58(13):1171-1177.[GUO Xinbiao,Wei Hongying,2013.Progress on the health effects of ambient PM2.5 pollution.Chinese Science Bulletin,58(13):1171-1177.]
姬露露,陈长坤,王楠楠,2014.我国六大中心城市PM2.5污染特征及诱因对比分析.灾害学,29(4):230-234.[JI Lulu,CHEN Changkun,WANG Nannan,2014.Comparison and Analysis on Characteristics and Causes of PM2.5 Pollution in Six Typical Central Cities of China.Journal of Catastrophology,29(4):230-234.]
贾静,2015.基于雾霾现象浅谈旅游可持续发展.科技创新导报,26(27):136-138.[JIA Jing,2015.Discussion on sustainable development of tourism based on haze.Science and Technology Innovation Herald,26(27):136-138.]
李静,Philip L PEARCE,吴必虎,Alastair M MORRISON,2015.雾霾对来京旅游者风险感知及旅游体验的影响--基于结构方程模型的中外旅游者对比研究.旅游学刊,30(10):48-59.[LI Jing,Philip L PEARCE,WU bihu,ALASTAIR M MORRISON,2015.The impact of smog on risk perception and satisfaction of international and domestic tourists in Beijing.Tourism Tribute,30(10):48-59.]
凌茜,杨韵,梁韵莹,2015.城市空气质量对其旅游活动的影响研究-基于宏、微观视角.北京第二外国语学院学报,(5):1-7,32.[LINGQian,YANG Yun,LIANG Yunying,2015.An Empirical Study on the Impact of Urban Air Quality on Tourist Activities:From the Perspective of Macro and Micro.Journal of Beijing International Studies University,(5):1-7,32.]
MUELLER Alexandra S,TRICK Lana M,2012.Driving in fog:The effects of driving experience and visibility on speed compensation and hazard avoidance.Accident Analysis and Prevention,48(9):472-479.
马丽梅,张晓,2014.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响.中国工业经济,(4):19-31.[MA Limei,ZHANG Xiao,2014.The Spatial Effect of China’s Haze Pollution and the Impact from Economic Change and Energy Structure.China Industrial Economics,(4):19-31.]
NEIDELL M J,2004.Air pollution,Health,and socio-economic status:The effect of outdoor air quality on childhood asthma.Journal of Health Economics,23(23):1209-1236.
POPE III C,DOCKERY D,2006.Health effects of fine particulate air pollution:lines that connect.Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association,56(6):707-708.
POUDYAL N C,PAUDEL B,GREEN G T,2013.Estimating the impact of impaired visibility on the demand for visits to national parks.Tourism Economics,19(2):433-452.
彭建,郭思远,裴亚楠,张松,2016.大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知和态度研究.中国人口·资源与环境,26(10):168-176.[PENGJian,GUO Siyuan,PEI Yanan,ZHANG Song,2016.Mainland Chinese residents’perception of tourism impacted by haze in Beijing and their attitudes.China Population,Resources and Environment,26(10):168-176.]
谭金华,石京,2013.高速公路间断放行的能耗和排放影响.清华大学学报(自然科学版),53(4):499-502,508.[TAN Jinhua,SHI Jing,2013.Impact of intermittent vehicle release on freeway energy dissipation and emissions.Journal of Tsinghua University:Science and Technology,53(4):499-502,508.]
唐承财,马蕾,宋昌耀,2017.雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗?--基于面板数据的实证检验.干旱区资源与环境,31(1):192-197.[TANG Chengcai,MA Lei,SONG Changyao,2017.Do fog and haze affect Beijing inbound tourism?-An empirical study based on Panel data.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,31(1):192-197.]
阎友兵,张静,2016.雾霾天气对北京市入境旅游的影响研究.旅游研究,8(4):83-87.[YAN Youbin,ZHANG Jing,2016.Study of smog weather’s impact on the inbound tourism of Beijing city.Tourism Research,8(4):83-87.]
ZHANG A P,ZHONG L S,XU Y,WANG H,DANG L J,2015.Tourists'perception of haze pollution and the potential impacts on travel:reshaping the features of tourism seasonality in Beijing,China.Sustainability,7(3):2397-2414.
ZOU B,LUO Y,WAN N,ZHENG Z,STEMBERG T,2015.Performance comparison of LUR and OK in PM2.5 concentration mapping:a multidimensional perspective.Scientific Reports,5(5):8698.DOI:10.1038/srep08698.
展云逸,尹海涛,2017.空气质量对我国旅游城市的影响分析--基于2005―2014年全国135个旅游城市的面板数据.西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),(1):88-94.[ZHAN Yunyi,YIN Haitao,2017.On Impact of Local Air Quality on Tourism Cities in China:Based on2005-2014 Panel Data of 135 Tourism Cities in China.Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition),(1):88-94.]
张小曳,孙俊英,王亚强,李卫军,张蔷,王炜罡,权建农,曹国良,王继志,杨元琴,张养梅,2013.我国雾-霾成因及其治理的思考.科学通报,58(13):1178-1187.[ZHANG Xiaoye,SUN Junying,WANG Yaqiang,LI Weijun,ZHANG Qiang,WANG Weigang,QUANJiannong,CAO Guoliang,WANG Jizhi,YANG Yuanqin,ZHANGYangmei,2013.Factors contributing to haze and fog in China.Chinese Science Bulletin,58(13):1178-1187.]
张炀玮,徐玲,魏月琴,2015.从雾霾看外资企业对当地经济环境的影响--以苏州为例.江苏商论,(5):250-251.[ZHANG Yangwei,XU Ling,WEI Yueqin,2015.The Influence of Foreign Enterprises on the Local Economic Environment from the Perspective of Haze-A Case Study of Suzhou City.Jiangsu Commercial Forum,(5):250-251.]
钟林生,唐承财,成升魁,2011.全球气候变化对中国旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨.中国软件学,(2):34-41.[ZHONG Linsheng,TANGChengcai,CHENG Shengkui,2016.The impact of global climate change on tourism industry in China and adaptive strategies.China Soft Science,(2):34-41.]
邹晨曦,2011.沪宁高速公路雾灾的分布特征与风险评价[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.[ZOU Chenxi,2011.The Distribution Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Fog Disaster in Huning Highway[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology.]
(1)数据来源:中国环境监测总站http://106.37.208.233:20035/;
(2)http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov/data/search.html;
(3)http://cdc.nmic.cn/home.do;
(4)http://www.dsac.cn/;
(5)http://www.resdc.cn。