分析师发布现金流预测的动机研究——基于信号传递理论的研究视角
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摘要
基于2008-2017年我国卖方分析师发布的研究报告数据,考察分析师内在能力与其额外发布现金流预测的关系。研究结果表明,高能力的分析师更倾向于在发布盈余预测的同时发布现金流预测,目的是向外传递与自身能力有关的信号。因此,对于还未获得良好声誉的非明星分析师,其内在能力越高,额外发布现金流预测的概率越大。研究还表明,对于机构投资者持股比例高的公司,分析师的内在能力与其额外签发现金流预测报告之间的正向关系更为显著。另外,分析师性别、学历、获取私有信息的能力及证券公司与上市公司的利益关联都会影响分析师内在能力与额外发布现金流预测的关系。
Based on the research report data released by Chinese seller analysts between 2008 and 2015,we examine the relationship between analysts' intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally release cash-flow forecasts. Our results show that with the goal of delivering signals related to their capabilities,high-quality analysts have greater probability to issue cash-flow forecasts while issuing earning forecasts. Therefore,for non-star analysts who have not yet gained a good reputation,the higher their intrinsic ability,the greater probability of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts. Moreover,Our results show that for the companies with high proportion of institutional investors,the positive relationship between the analyst's intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts is more significant. Further analyses find that analysts' gender,education,ability to acquire private information,and the interests between securities firms and listed companies are all influence the relationship between analysts' intrinsic capabilities and additional their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecast.
Based on the research report data released by Chinese seller analysts between 2008 and 2015,we examine the relationship between analysts' intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally release cash-flow forecasts. Our results show that with the goal of delivering signals related to their capabilities,high-quality analysts have greater probability to issue cash-flow forecasts while issuing earning forecasts. Therefore,for non-star analysts who have not yet gained a good reputation,the higher their intrinsic ability,the greater probability of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts. Moreover,Our results show that for the companies with high proportion of institutional investors,the positive relationship between the analyst's intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts is more significant. Further analyses find that analysts' gender,education,ability to acquire private information,and the interests between securities firms and listed companies are all influence the relationship between analysts' intrinsic capabilities and additional their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecast.
引文
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[2]姜国华.关于证券分析师对中国上市公司会计收益预测的实证研究[J].经济科学,2004(6):72-79.
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[17]王会娟,张然,张鹏.分析师为什么选择性的发布现金流预测?——基于信息需求理论的实证研究[J].投资研究,2012(7):27-40.
[18]黄永安.分析师预测内容的信息含量——基于荐股修正和分析师职业变动的视角[J].山西财经大学学报,2014(2):37-53.
[19]胡奕明,金洪飞.证券分析师关注自己的声誉吗?[J].世界经济,2006,29(2):71-81.
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[21]LEONE A J,WU J S. What does it take to become a superstar? Evidence from institutional investor rankings of financial analysts[R]. Working Paper,Simon School of Business,2007.
[22]O’BRIEN P C,BHUSHAN R. Analyst following and institutional ownership[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1990(28):55-76.
[23]GU Z,LI Z,YANG Y G. Monitors or predators:The influence of institutional investors on sell-side analysts[J]. The Accounting Review,2013,88(1):137-169.
[24]赵良玉,李增泉,刘军霞.管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取[J].管理世界,2013(4):33-47.
[25]CHEN Q,JIANG W. Analysts’weighting of private and public information[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2006(19):319-355.
[26]PAE J,YOON S S. Determinants of analysts’cash flow forecast accuracy[J]. Journal of Accounting Auditing&Finance,2012,27(1):123-144.
[27]ERTIMUR Y,MAYEW W J,STUBBEN S R. Analyst reputation and the issuance of disaggregated earnings forecasts to I/B/E/S[J]. Review of Accounting Studies,2011,16(1):29-58.
[28]尹玉刚.分析师教育、经验和努力:投资者关注与认知偏差[J].投资研究,2014(12):126-141.
[29]李悦,王超.中国证券分析师盈利预测准确度的影响因素——来自中国股票市场的证据[J].山西财经大学学报,2011,33(11):19-25.
[30]POWELL M,ANSIC D. Gender differences in risk behaviour in financial decision-making:An experimental analysis[J]. Journal of economic psychology,1997,18(6):605-628.
[31]吕兆德,曾雪寒.证券分析师性别、盈余预测偏差与纠偏能力[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2016,31(5):77-86.
[2]姜国华.关于证券分析师对中国上市公司会计收益预测的实证研究[J].经济科学,2004(6):72-79.
[3]李丹,贾宁.盈余质量、制度环境与分析师预测[J].中国会计评论,2009(4):351-370.
[4]BOWEN R M,BURGSTAHLER D,DELAY L A. The incremental information contest of accrual versus cash flows[J]. Accounting Review,1987(62):723-747.
[5]ALI A. The incremental information content of earnings,working capital from operations,and cash flows[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1994(32):61-74.
[6]DECHOW P. Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance:The role of accounting accruals[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics,1994(6):3-42.
[7]廖明情.分析师收入预测报告的动机和后果——基于信号理论和声誉理论的分析[J].中国会计评论,2012,10(2):157-178.
[8]周冬华,黄迎.证券分析师预测经验、历史预测准确性与现金流预测[J].中国注册会计师,2014(2):73-81.
[9]GIVOLY D,HAYN C,LEHAVY R. The quality of analysts’cash flow forecasts[J]. The Accounting Review,2009(84):1877-1911.
[10]王宇熹,肖峻,陈伟忠.券商可信度、分析师荐股绩效差异与利益冲突[J].证券市场导报,2010(5):31-48.
[11]郭杰,洪洁瑛.中国证券分析师的盈余预测行为有效性研究[J].经济研究,2009,44(11):55-67.
[12]方军雄.我国上市公司信息披露透明度与证券分析师预测[J].金融研究,2007(6):136-148.
[13]张宗新,杨万成.声誉模式抑或信息模式:中国证券分析师如何影响市场?[J].经济研究,2016(9):104-117.
[14]DEFOND M L,HUNG M. An empirical analysis of analysts’cash flow forecasts[J]. Journal of accounting and economics,2003,35(1):73-100.
[15]ERTIMUR Y,STUBBEN S. Analysts’incentives to issue revenue and cash flow forecasts[R]. Working paper,Stanford University,2005.
[16]DEFOND M L,HUNG M. Investor protection and analysts’cash flow forecasts around the world[J]. Review of Accounting Studies,2007,12(2-3):377-419.
[17]王会娟,张然,张鹏.分析师为什么选择性的发布现金流预测?——基于信息需求理论的实证研究[J].投资研究,2012(7):27-40.
[18]黄永安.分析师预测内容的信息含量——基于荐股修正和分析师职业变动的视角[J].山西财经大学学报,2014(2):37-53.
[19]胡奕明,金洪飞.证券分析师关注自己的声誉吗?[J].世界经济,2006,29(2):71-81.
[20]TADELIS S. What’s in a name? Reputation as a tradeable asset[J]. American Economic Review,1997,89(3):548-563.
[21]LEONE A J,WU J S. What does it take to become a superstar? Evidence from institutional investor rankings of financial analysts[R]. Working Paper,Simon School of Business,2007.
[22]O’BRIEN P C,BHUSHAN R. Analyst following and institutional ownership[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,1990(28):55-76.
[23]GU Z,LI Z,YANG Y G. Monitors or predators:The influence of institutional investors on sell-side analysts[J]. The Accounting Review,2013,88(1):137-169.
[24]赵良玉,李增泉,刘军霞.管理层偏好、投资评级乐观性与私有信息获取[J].管理世界,2013(4):33-47.
[25]CHEN Q,JIANG W. Analysts’weighting of private and public information[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2006(19):319-355.
[26]PAE J,YOON S S. Determinants of analysts’cash flow forecast accuracy[J]. Journal of Accounting Auditing&Finance,2012,27(1):123-144.
[27]ERTIMUR Y,MAYEW W J,STUBBEN S R. Analyst reputation and the issuance of disaggregated earnings forecasts to I/B/E/S[J]. Review of Accounting Studies,2011,16(1):29-58.
[28]尹玉刚.分析师教育、经验和努力:投资者关注与认知偏差[J].投资研究,2014(12):126-141.
[29]李悦,王超.中国证券分析师盈利预测准确度的影响因素——来自中国股票市场的证据[J].山西财经大学学报,2011,33(11):19-25.
[30]POWELL M,ANSIC D. Gender differences in risk behaviour in financial decision-making:An experimental analysis[J]. Journal of economic psychology,1997,18(6):605-628.
[31]吕兆德,曾雪寒.证券分析师性别、盈余预测偏差与纠偏能力[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2016,31(5):77-86.