SWAT模型在土地利用/覆被变化剧烈地区的改进与应用
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摘要
人口增长、气候变化、制度变迁、城市化等均会导致土地利用/覆被的变化,进而引起流域水文过程(截留、入渗、蒸散发和地下水补给等)和水循环过程的改变。当前,由于逐年土地利用/覆被数据获取困难、水文模型本身计算缺陷等问题,所有在流域尺度上开展的借助水文模型进行的土地利用/覆被变化影响下的水文模拟研究都存在一个共同缺点,就是采用的水文模型并不能逐年调用土地利用/覆被数据,即水文模型无法真实体现或模拟土地利用/覆被的时空变化。SWAT作为一个广泛应用的分布式水文模型,在其模拟期内,不能逐年调用土地利用/覆被数据,即在进行水文模拟时忽略了土地利用/覆被时间上的变化,这可能会影响其在土地利用/覆被变化剧烈地区(如黑河中游)的应用。黑河流域是典型的内陆河流域,也是中国西北地区第二大内陆河流域。黑河中游是黑河流域的径流耗散区。本文针对SWAT模型在考虑土地利用/覆被变化时的缺点对其进行了改进并开发出能够逐年调用土地利用/覆被数据的LU-SWAT模型。在土地利用/覆被变化剧烈的黑河中游对SWAT和LU-SWAT模型的径流模拟效果进行比较,发现LU-SWAT模型更适用于黑河中游水循环模拟。
Population growth, climate change, institutional change and urbanization etc. would cause the change of land use/land cover, which in turn would further affect the hydrological process(e.g. infiltration, surface runoff, evapotranspiration and lateral flow) and water balance. Currently, because of the difficulties in obtaining the yearly land use/land cover data and the problems in calculating process in hydrological models, the simulation of hydrological process under the impact of land use/land cover change is conducted on one period each time and the impacts of multiple periods(e.g. multiple years) of land use/land cover change cannot be simulated continuously. That is the models could not call land use/land cover data year by year seamlessly.SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tools)is a distributed hydrological model. During its simulation period, it could not call land use/land cover data year by year and neglects the land use/land cover change in time scale.This would impact its applications in regions with severe land use/land cover changes(e.g. the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River). Heihe River Basin is the second largest and a typical endorheic river basin in China. The middle reach consumes a major portion of the water in the Heihe River. For the weakness of SWAT model, this research developed a model called LU-SWAT that could simulate the impacts of multiple years of land use/land cover change continuously. Furthermore, we applied SWAT and LU-SWAT to simulating streamflow in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River, and compared their efficiency. The results showed that the LU-SWAT model, which could call land use/land cover data year by year is more suitable to simulate the streamflow in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River.
Population growth, climate change, institutional change and urbanization etc. would cause the change of land use/land cover, which in turn would further affect the hydrological process(e.g. infiltration, surface runoff, evapotranspiration and lateral flow) and water balance. Currently, because of the difficulties in obtaining the yearly land use/land cover data and the problems in calculating process in hydrological models, the simulation of hydrological process under the impact of land use/land cover change is conducted on one period each time and the impacts of multiple periods(e.g. multiple years) of land use/land cover change cannot be simulated continuously. That is the models could not call land use/land cover data year by year seamlessly.SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tools)is a distributed hydrological model. During its simulation period, it could not call land use/land cover data year by year and neglects the land use/land cover change in time scale.This would impact its applications in regions with severe land use/land cover changes(e.g. the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River). Heihe River Basin is the second largest and a typical endorheic river basin in China. The middle reach consumes a major portion of the water in the Heihe River. For the weakness of SWAT model, this research developed a model called LU-SWAT that could simulate the impacts of multiple years of land use/land cover change continuously. Furthermore, we applied SWAT and LU-SWAT to simulating streamflow in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River, and compared their efficiency. The results showed that the LU-SWAT model, which could call land use/land cover data year by year is more suitable to simulate the streamflow in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River.
引文
[1]Droogers P,Avan L,Immerzeel W W.Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2008,12(2):669-678.
[2]Bhatti A M,Koike T,Shrestha M.Climate change impact assessment on mountain snow hydrology by water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,543(B):523-541.
[3]刘昌明,李道峰,田英,等.基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(5):437-445.[Liu C M,Li D F,Tian Y,et al.An application study of DEM based distributed hydrological model on macroscale watershed[J].Progress in Geography,2003,22(5):437-445.]
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[5]王胜,许红梅,高超,等.基于SWAT模型分析淮河流域中上游水量平衡要素对气候变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(6):402-411.[Wang S,Xu H M,Gao C,et al.Water balance response of the climate change based on SWAT model in the Upper-Middle Reach of Huaihe River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2015,11(6):402-411.]
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[7]王根绪,杨玲媛,陈玲,等.黑河流域土地利用变化对地下水资源的影响[J].地理学报,2005,60(3):456-466.[Wang G X,Yang L Y,Chen L,et al.Impacts of land use changes on groundwater resources in the Heihe River Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(3):456-466.]
[8]刘剑宇,张强,陈喜,等.气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1875-1885.[Liu J Y,Zhang Q,Chen X,et al.Quantitative evaluations of human and climate induced impacts on hydrological processes of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(11):1875-1885.]
[9]Arnold J G,Moriasi D N,Gassman P W,et al.SWAT:Model use,calibration,and validation[J].Transactions of the Asabe,2012,55(4):1345-1352.
[10]Zhou F,Xu Y,Chen Y,et al.Hydrological response to urbanization at different spatio-temporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta region[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,485(5):113-125.
[11]Li J,Zhou Z X.Coupled analysis on landscape pattern and hydrological processes in Yanhe watershed of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,505(1):927-938.
[12]张凌,南卓铜,余文君.基于模型耦合的土地利用变化和水文响应多情景分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,15(6):829-839.[Zhang L,Nan Z T,Yu W J.Coupling LUCC and Hydrological models to predict land use and hydrological response under multiple Scenarios[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2013,15(6):829-839.]
[13]王学,张祖陆,宁吉才.基于SWAT模型的白马河流域土地利用变化的径流响应[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(1):186-194.[Wang X,Zhang Z L,Ning J C.Runoff response to land use change in Baimahe basin of China based on SWAT model[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2013,32(1):186-194.]
[14]李传哲,于福亮,刘佳,等.近20年来黑河干流中游地区土地利用/覆被变化及驱动力定量研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):353-363.[Li C Z,Yu F L,Liu J,et al.Research on Land Use/Cover Change and its driving force in Midstream if the Heihe Mainstream Basin during the past 20years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011(3):353-363.]
[15]王雅,蒙吉军.基于In VEST模型的黑河中游土地利用变化水文效应时空分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(6):1157-1165.[Wang Y,Meng J J.Spatial-temporal features of hydrological effects caused by land use changes in middle reaches of Heihe River based on InVEST model[J].Journal of Peking University(Natural Science Edition),2015,51(6):1157-1165.]
[16]程国栋,肖洪浪,徐中民,等.中国西北内陆河水问题及其应对策略——以黑河流域为例[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):406-413.[Cheng G D,Xiao H L,Xu Z M,et al.Water issue and its countermeasure in the inland river basins of Northwest China:Take Heihe as an example[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geology,2006,28(3):406-413.]
[17]陈仁升,阳勇,韩春坛,等.高寒区典型下垫面水文功能小流域观测试验研究[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(4):507-514.[Chen R S,Yang Y,Han C T et al.Field experimental research on hydrological function over several typical underlying sufaces in the cold regions of western China[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(4):507-514.]
[18]张凯,宋连春,韩永翔,等.黑河中游地区水资源供需状况分析及对策探讨[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(5):842-848.[Zhang K,Song L C,Han Y X,et al.Analysis on supply and demand of water resources and related countermeasures in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River[J].Journal of Desert Research,2006,26(5):842-848.]
[19]Moriasi D,Arnold J,Vanliew M,et al.Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J].Transactions of the ASABE,2007,50(3):885-900.
[20]White K L,Chaubey I.Sensitivity analysis,calibration,and validations for a multisite and multivariable swat model 1[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2010,41(5):1077-1089.
[21]黄清华,张万昌.SWAT分布式水文模型在黑河干流山区流域的改进及应用[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(2):22-26.[Huang Q H,Zhang W C.Improvement and application of GIS-based distributed SWAT hydrological modeling on high altitude,cold,semi-arid catchment of Heihe River Basin,China[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Science Edition),2004,28(2):22-26.]
[22]赖正清,李硕,李呈罡,等.SWAT模型在黑河中上游流域的改进与应用[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1404-1413.[Lai Z Q,Li S,Li C G,et al.Improvement and applications of SWAT model in the Upper-middle Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1404-1413.]
[2]Bhatti A M,Koike T,Shrestha M.Climate change impact assessment on mountain snow hydrology by water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,543(B):523-541.
[3]刘昌明,李道峰,田英,等.基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(5):437-445.[Liu C M,Li D F,Tian Y,et al.An application study of DEM based distributed hydrological model on macroscale watershed[J].Progress in Geography,2003,22(5):437-445.]
[4]Jin X,Zhang L H,Gu J,et al.Modelling the impacts of spatial heterogeneity in soil hydraulic properties on hydrological process in the upper reach of the Heihe River in the Qilian Mountains,Northwest China[J].Hydrological Processes,2015,29(15):3318-3327.
[5]王胜,许红梅,高超,等.基于SWAT模型分析淮河流域中上游水量平衡要素对气候变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(6):402-411.[Wang S,Xu H M,Gao C,et al.Water balance response of the climate change based on SWAT model in the Upper-Middle Reach of Huaihe River Basin[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2015,11(6):402-411.]
[6]刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.[Liu J Y,Kuang W H,Zhang Z X,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(1):3-14.]
[7]王根绪,杨玲媛,陈玲,等.黑河流域土地利用变化对地下水资源的影响[J].地理学报,2005,60(3):456-466.[Wang G X,Yang L Y,Chen L,et al.Impacts of land use changes on groundwater resources in the Heihe River Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(3):456-466.]
[8]刘剑宇,张强,陈喜,等.气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1875-1885.[Liu J Y,Zhang Q,Chen X,et al.Quantitative evaluations of human and climate induced impacts on hydrological processes of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(11):1875-1885.]
[9]Arnold J G,Moriasi D N,Gassman P W,et al.SWAT:Model use,calibration,and validation[J].Transactions of the Asabe,2012,55(4):1345-1352.
[10]Zhou F,Xu Y,Chen Y,et al.Hydrological response to urbanization at different spatio-temporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta region[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,485(5):113-125.
[11]Li J,Zhou Z X.Coupled analysis on landscape pattern and hydrological processes in Yanhe watershed of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,505(1):927-938.
[12]张凌,南卓铜,余文君.基于模型耦合的土地利用变化和水文响应多情景分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,15(6):829-839.[Zhang L,Nan Z T,Yu W J.Coupling LUCC and Hydrological models to predict land use and hydrological response under multiple Scenarios[J].Journal of Geo-information Science,2013,15(6):829-839.]
[13]王学,张祖陆,宁吉才.基于SWAT模型的白马河流域土地利用变化的径流响应[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(1):186-194.[Wang X,Zhang Z L,Ning J C.Runoff response to land use change in Baimahe basin of China based on SWAT model[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2013,32(1):186-194.]
[14]李传哲,于福亮,刘佳,等.近20年来黑河干流中游地区土地利用/覆被变化及驱动力定量研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):353-363.[Li C Z,Yu F L,Liu J,et al.Research on Land Use/Cover Change and its driving force in Midstream if the Heihe Mainstream Basin during the past 20years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011(3):353-363.]
[15]王雅,蒙吉军.基于In VEST模型的黑河中游土地利用变化水文效应时空分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(6):1157-1165.[Wang Y,Meng J J.Spatial-temporal features of hydrological effects caused by land use changes in middle reaches of Heihe River based on InVEST model[J].Journal of Peking University(Natural Science Edition),2015,51(6):1157-1165.]
[16]程国栋,肖洪浪,徐中民,等.中国西北内陆河水问题及其应对策略——以黑河流域为例[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):406-413.[Cheng G D,Xiao H L,Xu Z M,et al.Water issue and its countermeasure in the inland river basins of Northwest China:Take Heihe as an example[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geology,2006,28(3):406-413.]
[17]陈仁升,阳勇,韩春坛,等.高寒区典型下垫面水文功能小流域观测试验研究[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(4):507-514.[Chen R S,Yang Y,Han C T et al.Field experimental research on hydrological function over several typical underlying sufaces in the cold regions of western China[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(4):507-514.]
[18]张凯,宋连春,韩永翔,等.黑河中游地区水资源供需状况分析及对策探讨[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(5):842-848.[Zhang K,Song L C,Han Y X,et al.Analysis on supply and demand of water resources and related countermeasures in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River[J].Journal of Desert Research,2006,26(5):842-848.]
[19]Moriasi D,Arnold J,Vanliew M,et al.Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J].Transactions of the ASABE,2007,50(3):885-900.
[20]White K L,Chaubey I.Sensitivity analysis,calibration,and validations for a multisite and multivariable swat model 1[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2010,41(5):1077-1089.
[21]黄清华,张万昌.SWAT分布式水文模型在黑河干流山区流域的改进及应用[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2004,28(2):22-26.[Huang Q H,Zhang W C.Improvement and application of GIS-based distributed SWAT hydrological modeling on high altitude,cold,semi-arid catchment of Heihe River Basin,China[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Science Edition),2004,28(2):22-26.]
[22]赖正清,李硕,李呈罡,等.SWAT模型在黑河中上游流域的改进与应用[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1404-1413.[Lai Z Q,Li S,Li C G,et al.Improvement and applications of SWAT model in the Upper-middle Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1404-1413.]