高能耗企业绿色转型技术的实物期权选择路线
|
摘要
本文试图解决企业根据经济波动及自身的情况如何进行绿色转型技术最优战略选择的问题.本文利用实物期权法,对经济的发展状况及技术进行了情景分析,得到了企业绿色转型技术的最优投资规律和选择路线.结果表明碳交易价格的初始作用是促进高能耗企业进行绿色转型投资;企业的资金实力是影响企业绿色转型成功和路线选择的一个重要因素,但最终影响高能耗企业绿色转型成功和路线选择的关键因素是经济的繁荣程度,投资贴现率的高低,以及绿色转型技术的发展水平.理论模型启示政府应控制好经济环境的稳定和繁荣,制定动态的最优碳交易机制,积极重点地鼓励培育投资贴现率高的绿色转型技术.
This paper attempts to consider and solve the problem for companies to choose the optimal strategic route of green transformation technology investment based on economic fluctuation and their own situation. We apply a real option to conduct scenario analysis on the forecast economic development status and technology and get the optimal investment rules and the optimal choice route of the green transformation technology. The main results are: 1) the initial role of carbon trading price is to promote the green transformation of high-energy enterprises; 2) enterprise's financial strength is an another important factor that influences green transition success and route selection for enterprise; 3) the key factors which influence green transition success and route selection for enterprise axe the degree of economic prosperity,the height of the investment of the discount rate, and the development level of the green transformation technology. Furthermore, our theoretical model implicates that government should control the stability and prosperity of the economic environment and provide a good carbon trading mechanism and encourage to cultivate high green transformation technology with the high discount rate investment.
This paper attempts to consider and solve the problem for companies to choose the optimal strategic route of green transformation technology investment based on economic fluctuation and their own situation. We apply a real option to conduct scenario analysis on the forecast economic development status and technology and get the optimal investment rules and the optimal choice route of the green transformation technology. The main results are: 1) the initial role of carbon trading price is to promote the green transformation of high-energy enterprises; 2) enterprise's financial strength is an another important factor that influences green transition success and route selection for enterprise; 3) the key factors which influence green transition success and route selection for enterprise axe the degree of economic prosperity,the height of the investment of the discount rate, and the development level of the green transformation technology. Furthermore, our theoretical model implicates that government should control the stability and prosperity of the economic environment and provide a good carbon trading mechanism and encourage to cultivate high green transformation technology with the high discount rate investment.
引文
[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所课题组,李平.中国工业绿色转型研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(4):5-14.Research Group of Institute of Industrial Economics CASS, Lee P. A study on the green transformation of Chinese industry[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2011(4):5-14.
[2]王兵,刘光天.节能减排与中国绿色经济增长——基于全要素生产率的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(5):57-69.Wang B, Liu G T. Energy conservation and emission reduction and China's green economic growth based on a total factor productivity perspective[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2015(5):57-69.
[3]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,2009(4):41-55.Chen S Y. Energy consumption, CO_2 emission and sustainable development in Chinese industry[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2009(4):41-55.
[4]黄群慧,贺俊.“第三次工业革命”与中国经济发展战略调整——技术经济范式转变的视角[J].中国工业经济,2013(1):5-18.Huang Q H, He J.“The Third Industrial Revolution” and the adjustment of China's economic strategy—Transformation of the techno-economic paradigm[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2013(1):5-18.
[5]丁志国,赵宣凯,苏治.中国经济增长的核心动力——基于资源配置效率的产业升级方向与路径选择[J].中国工业经济,2012(9):18-30.Ding Z G, Zhao X K, Su Z. What is the core driving force of China's economic growth—Industrial upgrading directions and path choice based on resources allocation efficiency[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2012(9):18-30.
[6]张江雪,蔡宁,毛建素,等.自主创新、技术引进与中国工业绿色增长——基于行业异质性的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2015(2):185-194.Zhang J X,Cai N,Mao J S, et al. Independent innovation, technology introduction and green growth of industry in China:An empirical research based on industry heterogeneity[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2015(2):185-194.
[7]张艳磊,秦芳,吴昱。“可持续发展”还是“以污染换增长”——基于中国工业企业销售增长模式的分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(2):89-101.Zhang Y L, Qin F, Wu Y. Sustainable growth or growth with pollution an analysis on the sales growth patterns of Chinese industrial companies[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2015(2):89-101.
[8]沈可挺.碳关税争端及其对中国制造业的影响[J].中国工业经济,2010(1):65-74.Shen K T. The international carbon-motivated border tax adjustment controversy and its impact on China's manufacturing industries[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2010(1):65-74.
[9]李玲,陶锋.中国制造业最优环境规制强度的选择——基于绿色全要素生产率的视角[J].中国工业经济,2012(5):70-82.Li L, Tao F. Selection of optimal environmental regulation intensity for Chinese manufacturing industry—Based on the green TFP perspective[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2012(5):70-82.
[10]周远祺,杨招军,杨金强.碳交易背景下石化企业能耗优化项目的投资分析[J].工业技术经济,2013(11):100-106.Zhou Y Q, Yang Z J, Yang J Q. The investment analysis of energy-efficient technologies in firms based on the trading of carbon emission permission[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2013(11):100-106.
[11]周远祺,杨招军,杨金强.经济波动强度与企业节能减排最优投资决策模型与实证[J].统计与决策,2015(14):174-177.Zhou Y Q, Yang Z J, Yang J Q. Model and empirical study of impacts from economic fluctuation on the optimal investment decision of the technologies for enterprise energy conservation[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2015(14):174-177.
[12]林伯强,李江龙.基于随机动态递归的中国可再生能源政策量化评价[J].经济研究,2014, 49(4):89-103.Lin B Q, Li J L. Quantitative evaluation of Chinese renewable energy policy based on recursive stochastic dynamic programme[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2014, 49(4):89-103.
[13]朱磊,范英.中国燃煤电厂CCS改造投资建模和补贴政策评价[J].中国人口资源与环境,2014, 24(7):99-105.Zhu L,Fan Y. Modeling the investment of coal-fired power plant retrofit with CCS and subsidy policy assessment[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(7):99-105.
[14] Zhang X, Wang X, Chen J, et al. A novel modeling based real option approach for CCS investment evaluation under multiple uncertainties[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 113:1059-1067.
[15]杨光,孙浦阳,龚刚.经济波动、成本约束与资源配置[J].经济研究,2015(2):47-60.Yang G, Sun P Y, Gong G. Growth volatility, adjustment cost and resource allocation[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2015(2):47-60.
[16] Peck S C, Teisberg T J. Global warming uncertainties and the value of information:An analysis using CETA[J].Resource and Energy Economics, 1993, 15(1):71—97.
[17] Jopson N B, Kolstad K, Sehested E, et al. Computed tomography as an accurate and cost effective alternative to carcass dissection[J]. Inpharma, 1995, 712(1):12-12.
[18] John A, Pecchenino R, Schimmelpfennig D, et al. Short-lived agents and the long-lived environment[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 1995, 58(1):127-141.
[19] Birge J R, Rosa C H. Incorporating investment uncertainty into greenhouse policy models[J]. Energy Journal,1996, 17(1):79-90.
[20] Mahnovski S. Robust decisions and deep uncertainty:An application of real options to public and private investment in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies[M]. Santa Monica:The RAND Corporation, 2007.
[21] Zhang M M, Zhou P, Zhou D Q. A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China[J]. Energy Economics, 2016, 59:213-226.
[22] Boomsma T K, Meade N, Fleten S E. Renewable energy investments under different support schemes:A real options approach[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012, 220(1):225-237.
[23] Reuter W H,Szolgayova J,Fuss S,et al. Renewable energy investment:Policy and market impacts[J]. Applied Energy, 2012, 97(3):249-254.
[24] Fuss S, Szolgayova J. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning[J].Applied Energy, 2010, 87(9):2938-2944.
[25] Bednyagin D, Gnansounou E. Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects:Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 41(C):269-279.
[26] Zhu L, Fan Y. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model:Case study of China's power generation sector[J]. Applied Energy, 2011, 88(12):4320-4333.
[27] Zhou W, Zhu B, Fuss S, et al. Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector[J].Applied Energy, 2010, 87(7):2392-2400.
[28] Fuss S, Szolgayova J, Obersteiner M, et al. Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty[J]. Applied Energy, 2008, 85(8):708-721.
[29] Abadie L M, Chamorro J M. European CO_2, prices and carbon capture investments[J]. Energy Economics, 2008,30(6):2992-3015.
[30] Henri J F, Journeault M. Eco-control:The influence of management control systems on environmental and economic performance[J]. Accounting Organizations&Society, 2010, 35(1):63-80.
[31] Bolton P, Chen H, Wang N. Market timing, investment, and risk management[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2013, 109(1):40-62.
[32] Chen H. Macroeconomic conditions and the puzzles of credit spreads and capital structure[J]. Journal of Finance,2010,65(6):2171-2212.
[33] Mo J, Zhu L, Fan Y. Carbon price stabilization mechanism and its implication for China[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(5):368-375.
[34] Alberola E, Chevallier J, Cheze B. Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007[J].Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2):787-797.
[35] Benz E, Trück S. Modeling the price dynamics of CO_2 emission allowances[J]. Energy Economics, 2009, 31(1):4-15.
[36] Detert N, Kotani K. Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia[J]. Energy Policy, 2013,56(56):136-150.
1.参见解振华:《2011年节能减排目标未能实现,后四年压力大》 2012-05-27 15:28:06.来源:瞭望http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/micro-reading/politics/2012-05-27/content_6022027_4.html.
2.参见钱颖一《读懂中国经济的过去与未来》. http://sike.news.cn/statics/sike/posts/2017/01/219512043.html.
3.参见习近平《立足当前,着眼长远》. http://www.buu.edu.cn/art/2014/9/3/art_10372_301130.html.
4.参见《5个月成交823万元深圳碳市场有点冷》,每经记者杨长江发自深圳2013-11-15 01:01:04 http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2013-11-15/787788.html.
5.参考Hogue M T. A review of the costs of nuclear power generation. 2012, ww.bebr.utah.edu/.../Nuclear-Report_Final_Web_7Mar2012.
6.参考Hogue M T. A review of the costs of nuclear power generation. 2012, www.bebr.utah.edu/.../Nuclear_Report_Final_Web_7Mar2012.
7. 2013年,欧盟碳排放许可(EUA)的平均价格从1月的5.18欧元/吨一路跌至4月的3.81欧元/吨,4月17日,在欧洲议会投票否决了缩减9亿份碳排放配额的提议后,欧盟碳交易市场碳排放权价格更是暴跌至每吨2.63欧元,碳交易的基点价格是以此碳交易价格波动估算的.
8.减少排放的CO_2的量按1吨标煤排放2.1531吨的CO_2的量来计算.
9.我国《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》,《工业转型升级规划(2011-2015年)》,《国务院“十二五”节能减排综合性工作方案》,《节能减排规划(2011-2015年)》,《工业节能“十二五”规划》等制定了一系列减排途径和措施.
10.参见《美国能源部宣布_SunShot_2020_目标完成超90%》, 2016-11-23.中国经济网http://intl.ce.cn/specials/zxgjzh/2016/11/23/t20161123_18071947.html.
11.参见林伯强:能源转型没有“免费午餐”http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2016-07/9169708.html.
[2]王兵,刘光天.节能减排与中国绿色经济增长——基于全要素生产率的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(5):57-69.Wang B, Liu G T. Energy conservation and emission reduction and China's green economic growth based on a total factor productivity perspective[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2015(5):57-69.
[3]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,2009(4):41-55.Chen S Y. Energy consumption, CO_2 emission and sustainable development in Chinese industry[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2009(4):41-55.
[4]黄群慧,贺俊.“第三次工业革命”与中国经济发展战略调整——技术经济范式转变的视角[J].中国工业经济,2013(1):5-18.Huang Q H, He J.“The Third Industrial Revolution” and the adjustment of China's economic strategy—Transformation of the techno-economic paradigm[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2013(1):5-18.
[5]丁志国,赵宣凯,苏治.中国经济增长的核心动力——基于资源配置效率的产业升级方向与路径选择[J].中国工业经济,2012(9):18-30.Ding Z G, Zhao X K, Su Z. What is the core driving force of China's economic growth—Industrial upgrading directions and path choice based on resources allocation efficiency[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2012(9):18-30.
[6]张江雪,蔡宁,毛建素,等.自主创新、技术引进与中国工业绿色增长——基于行业异质性的实证研究[J].科学学研究,2015(2):185-194.Zhang J X,Cai N,Mao J S, et al. Independent innovation, technology introduction and green growth of industry in China:An empirical research based on industry heterogeneity[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2015(2):185-194.
[7]张艳磊,秦芳,吴昱。“可持续发展”还是“以污染换增长”——基于中国工业企业销售增长模式的分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(2):89-101.Zhang Y L, Qin F, Wu Y. Sustainable growth or growth with pollution an analysis on the sales growth patterns of Chinese industrial companies[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2015(2):89-101.
[8]沈可挺.碳关税争端及其对中国制造业的影响[J].中国工业经济,2010(1):65-74.Shen K T. The international carbon-motivated border tax adjustment controversy and its impact on China's manufacturing industries[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2010(1):65-74.
[9]李玲,陶锋.中国制造业最优环境规制强度的选择——基于绿色全要素生产率的视角[J].中国工业经济,2012(5):70-82.Li L, Tao F. Selection of optimal environmental regulation intensity for Chinese manufacturing industry—Based on the green TFP perspective[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2012(5):70-82.
[10]周远祺,杨招军,杨金强.碳交易背景下石化企业能耗优化项目的投资分析[J].工业技术经济,2013(11):100-106.Zhou Y Q, Yang Z J, Yang J Q. The investment analysis of energy-efficient technologies in firms based on the trading of carbon emission permission[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2013(11):100-106.
[11]周远祺,杨招军,杨金强.经济波动强度与企业节能减排最优投资决策模型与实证[J].统计与决策,2015(14):174-177.Zhou Y Q, Yang Z J, Yang J Q. Model and empirical study of impacts from economic fluctuation on the optimal investment decision of the technologies for enterprise energy conservation[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2015(14):174-177.
[12]林伯强,李江龙.基于随机动态递归的中国可再生能源政策量化评价[J].经济研究,2014, 49(4):89-103.Lin B Q, Li J L. Quantitative evaluation of Chinese renewable energy policy based on recursive stochastic dynamic programme[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2014, 49(4):89-103.
[13]朱磊,范英.中国燃煤电厂CCS改造投资建模和补贴政策评价[J].中国人口资源与环境,2014, 24(7):99-105.Zhu L,Fan Y. Modeling the investment of coal-fired power plant retrofit with CCS and subsidy policy assessment[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(7):99-105.
[14] Zhang X, Wang X, Chen J, et al. A novel modeling based real option approach for CCS investment evaluation under multiple uncertainties[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 113:1059-1067.
[15]杨光,孙浦阳,龚刚.经济波动、成本约束与资源配置[J].经济研究,2015(2):47-60.Yang G, Sun P Y, Gong G. Growth volatility, adjustment cost and resource allocation[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2015(2):47-60.
[16] Peck S C, Teisberg T J. Global warming uncertainties and the value of information:An analysis using CETA[J].Resource and Energy Economics, 1993, 15(1):71—97.
[17] Jopson N B, Kolstad K, Sehested E, et al. Computed tomography as an accurate and cost effective alternative to carcass dissection[J]. Inpharma, 1995, 712(1):12-12.
[18] John A, Pecchenino R, Schimmelpfennig D, et al. Short-lived agents and the long-lived environment[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 1995, 58(1):127-141.
[19] Birge J R, Rosa C H. Incorporating investment uncertainty into greenhouse policy models[J]. Energy Journal,1996, 17(1):79-90.
[20] Mahnovski S. Robust decisions and deep uncertainty:An application of real options to public and private investment in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies[M]. Santa Monica:The RAND Corporation, 2007.
[21] Zhang M M, Zhou P, Zhou D Q. A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China[J]. Energy Economics, 2016, 59:213-226.
[22] Boomsma T K, Meade N, Fleten S E. Renewable energy investments under different support schemes:A real options approach[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012, 220(1):225-237.
[23] Reuter W H,Szolgayova J,Fuss S,et al. Renewable energy investment:Policy and market impacts[J]. Applied Energy, 2012, 97(3):249-254.
[24] Fuss S, Szolgayova J. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning[J].Applied Energy, 2010, 87(9):2938-2944.
[25] Bednyagin D, Gnansounou E. Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects:Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 41(C):269-279.
[26] Zhu L, Fan Y. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model:Case study of China's power generation sector[J]. Applied Energy, 2011, 88(12):4320-4333.
[27] Zhou W, Zhu B, Fuss S, et al. Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector[J].Applied Energy, 2010, 87(7):2392-2400.
[28] Fuss S, Szolgayova J, Obersteiner M, et al. Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty[J]. Applied Energy, 2008, 85(8):708-721.
[29] Abadie L M, Chamorro J M. European CO_2, prices and carbon capture investments[J]. Energy Economics, 2008,30(6):2992-3015.
[30] Henri J F, Journeault M. Eco-control:The influence of management control systems on environmental and economic performance[J]. Accounting Organizations&Society, 2010, 35(1):63-80.
[31] Bolton P, Chen H, Wang N. Market timing, investment, and risk management[J]. Journal of Financial Economics,2013, 109(1):40-62.
[32] Chen H. Macroeconomic conditions and the puzzles of credit spreads and capital structure[J]. Journal of Finance,2010,65(6):2171-2212.
[33] Mo J, Zhu L, Fan Y. Carbon price stabilization mechanism and its implication for China[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(5):368-375.
[34] Alberola E, Chevallier J, Cheze B. Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007[J].Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2):787-797.
[35] Benz E, Trück S. Modeling the price dynamics of CO_2 emission allowances[J]. Energy Economics, 2009, 31(1):4-15.
[36] Detert N, Kotani K. Real options approach to renewable energy investments in Mongolia[J]. Energy Policy, 2013,56(56):136-150.
1.参见解振华:《2011年节能减排目标未能实现,后四年压力大》 2012-05-27 15:28:06.来源:瞭望http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/micro-reading/politics/2012-05-27/content_6022027_4.html.
2.参见钱颖一《读懂中国经济的过去与未来》. http://sike.news.cn/statics/sike/posts/2017/01/219512043.html.
3.参见习近平《立足当前,着眼长远》. http://www.buu.edu.cn/art/2014/9/3/art_10372_301130.html.
4.参见《5个月成交823万元深圳碳市场有点冷》,每经记者杨长江发自深圳2013-11-15 01:01:04 http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2013-11-15/787788.html.
5.参考Hogue M T. A review of the costs of nuclear power generation. 2012, ww.bebr.utah.edu/.../Nuclear-Report_Final_Web_7Mar2012.
6.参考Hogue M T. A review of the costs of nuclear power generation. 2012, www.bebr.utah.edu/.../Nuclear_Report_Final_Web_7Mar2012.
7. 2013年,欧盟碳排放许可(EUA)的平均价格从1月的5.18欧元/吨一路跌至4月的3.81欧元/吨,4月17日,在欧洲议会投票否决了缩减9亿份碳排放配额的提议后,欧盟碳交易市场碳排放权价格更是暴跌至每吨2.63欧元,碳交易的基点价格是以此碳交易价格波动估算的.
8.减少排放的CO_2的量按1吨标煤排放2.1531吨的CO_2的量来计算.
9.我国《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》,《工业转型升级规划(2011-2015年)》,《国务院“十二五”节能减排综合性工作方案》,《节能减排规划(2011-2015年)》,《工业节能“十二五”规划》等制定了一系列减排途径和措施.
10.参见《美国能源部宣布_SunShot_2020_目标完成超90%》, 2016-11-23.中国经济网http://intl.ce.cn/specials/zxgjzh/2016/11/23/t20161123_18071947.html.
11.参见林伯强:能源转型没有“免费午餐”http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2016-07/9169708.html.