劳动力技术禀赋与人民币实际汇率决定研究
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摘要
随着"刘易斯拐点"的临近和人口红利的逐渐消失,劳动力质量而非数量成为长期经济增长的驱动力,凸显了劳动力技术禀赋对经济运行和人民币实际汇率决定的重要性。本文通过引入非齐序性消费效用函数,从理论上分析了劳动力技术结构通过要素禀赋机制、巴萨效应机制和收入机制等三条渠道影响实际汇率,要素禀赋机制的作用方向为正,但巴萨效应机制和收入机制的作用方向不确定。鉴于理论分析结论的不确定,文章进而利用我国工业行业年度面板数据,实证检验了劳动力技术结构对人民币实际有效汇率的影响效果,研究表明,劳动力技术结构对人民币实际有效汇率有正向显著的影响,稳健性检验证明了结论的一致性。
With the approach of Lewisian turning point and fading away of demographic dividends,labor qualities rather labor quantities become the motive to long-run economic growth. This highlights the paramount importance of labor skill endowment for a better economic performance and also the real exchange rate determination of RMB. Based on the assumption of non-homothetic utility function,the paper theoretically analyzed how labor skill structure affected real exchange rate,through factor endowment channel,B-S effect channel and the income channel. The first channel is positive,while the latter two channels are uncertain. Results from an empirical test using industrial annual panel data proved that labor skill structure has a positive effect on RMB real effective exchange rate.Conclusively,all robust tests prove the consistency of results.
With the approach of Lewisian turning point and fading away of demographic dividends,labor qualities rather labor quantities become the motive to long-run economic growth. This highlights the paramount importance of labor skill endowment for a better economic performance and also the real exchange rate determination of RMB. Based on the assumption of non-homothetic utility function,the paper theoretically analyzed how labor skill structure affected real exchange rate,through factor endowment channel,B-S effect channel and the income channel. The first channel is positive,while the latter two channels are uncertain. Results from an empirical test using industrial annual panel data proved that labor skill structure has a positive effect on RMB real effective exchange rate.Conclusively,all robust tests prove the consistency of results.
引文
[1]王泽填,姚洋.结构转型与巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应[J].世界经济,2009(4):38-49.
[2]徐建炜,田丰.中国行业层面实际有效汇率测算:2000~2009[J].世界经济,2013(5):21-36.
[3]杨长江.人民币实际汇率长期调整趋势研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[4]杨长江,任栋.人力资本结构演进与实际汇率变动[J].世界经济,2011(2):14-38.
[5]虞文美,杜亚斌,曹强.人力资本对实际汇率的影响———基于跨国面板数据的实证检验[J].当代财经,2014(3):61-71.
[6]BALASSA BELA,The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine:A Reappraisal[J]. The Journal of Political Economy,1964,72(6):584-596.
[7]BERGSTRAND,J. H.,Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels:Some EmpiricalEvidence[J]. American Economic Review,1991,81(1):325-334.
[8]BHAGWATI,J. N.,Why are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?[J]. Economic Journal,1984,94(374):279-286.
[9]CLAGUE CHRISTOPHER K.,Tanzi Vito,Human Capital,Natural Resources and the Purchasing Power ParityDoctrine:Some Empirical Results[J]. Economia Internationale,1972,25:3-18.
[10]CRAVINO&HALTENHOF,Real Exchange Rates,Income Per Capita and Sectoral Input Share[J]. NBERWorking Paper No. 23705,2017.
[11]GOLDGERG L.,Industry-specific Exchange Rates for the United States[J]. Economic Policy Review,2004,1(10):1-16.
[12]ITO TAKATOSHI,PETER ISARD,STEVEN SYMANSKY. Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate:An Over-view of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia[J]. NBER Working Paper No. 5979,1997.
[13]Sachs D. Jeffrey,Resource Endowments and the Real Exchange Rate:A Comparison of Latin America and East A-sia[J]. NBER-EASE,Vol.7,1999.
[14]SAMUELSON A. PAUL. Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1964,46(2):145-154.
[15]THI HONG THINH DOAN,KARINE GENTE. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in a Specific-Factor Modelwith Skilled and Unskilled Labor[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2014,40:1-15.
[16]VINCENT BODART. Jean Francois Carpantier,Real Exchange Rates and Skills[J]. Journal of International Mon-ey and Finance,2016,67:305-319.
(1)Matsuyama(2007)研究指出,由于出口贸易需要企业熟悉国际市场、销售、保险、语言等诸多事宜,因此,采用更先进技术、劳动力技能更高的企业更可能进入出口市场。Verhoogen(2008)研究认为,贸易有助于提升商品质量,提高了技能劳动力的需求。
(1)两部门生产函数形式的设定虽然简单,但可简化作用机制的分析,且结论并不失一般性。
(1)参看胡德宝,苏基溶.政府消费、贸易条件、生产率与人民币汇率[J].金融研究,2013(10):42-53。
(1)鉴于三种汇率指标的走势基本一致,且按贸易总额占比加权的汇率指标更能全面反映行业竞争力,因此,稳健性检验主要采用按贸易总额加权的汇率进行了回归估计。
(2)实际汇率贬值提高了出口商利润,可能促使企业雇佣更多技能劳动力以提升产品质量,Mallick(2009)、Alvarez和Lopez(2009)的研究为这一观点提供了实证支持。
[2]徐建炜,田丰.中国行业层面实际有效汇率测算:2000~2009[J].世界经济,2013(5):21-36.
[3]杨长江.人民币实际汇率长期调整趋势研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[4]杨长江,任栋.人力资本结构演进与实际汇率变动[J].世界经济,2011(2):14-38.
[5]虞文美,杜亚斌,曹强.人力资本对实际汇率的影响———基于跨国面板数据的实证检验[J].当代财经,2014(3):61-71.
[6]BALASSA BELA,The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine:A Reappraisal[J]. The Journal of Political Economy,1964,72(6):584-596.
[7]BERGSTRAND,J. H.,Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels:Some EmpiricalEvidence[J]. American Economic Review,1991,81(1):325-334.
[8]BHAGWATI,J. N.,Why are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?[J]. Economic Journal,1984,94(374):279-286.
[9]CLAGUE CHRISTOPHER K.,Tanzi Vito,Human Capital,Natural Resources and the Purchasing Power ParityDoctrine:Some Empirical Results[J]. Economia Internationale,1972,25:3-18.
[10]CRAVINO&HALTENHOF,Real Exchange Rates,Income Per Capita and Sectoral Input Share[J]. NBERWorking Paper No. 23705,2017.
[11]GOLDGERG L.,Industry-specific Exchange Rates for the United States[J]. Economic Policy Review,2004,1(10):1-16.
[12]ITO TAKATOSHI,PETER ISARD,STEVEN SYMANSKY. Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate:An Over-view of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia[J]. NBER Working Paper No. 5979,1997.
[13]Sachs D. Jeffrey,Resource Endowments and the Real Exchange Rate:A Comparison of Latin America and East A-sia[J]. NBER-EASE,Vol.7,1999.
[14]SAMUELSON A. PAUL. Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1964,46(2):145-154.
[15]THI HONG THINH DOAN,KARINE GENTE. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in a Specific-Factor Modelwith Skilled and Unskilled Labor[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2014,40:1-15.
[16]VINCENT BODART. Jean Francois Carpantier,Real Exchange Rates and Skills[J]. Journal of International Mon-ey and Finance,2016,67:305-319.
(1)Matsuyama(2007)研究指出,由于出口贸易需要企业熟悉国际市场、销售、保险、语言等诸多事宜,因此,采用更先进技术、劳动力技能更高的企业更可能进入出口市场。Verhoogen(2008)研究认为,贸易有助于提升商品质量,提高了技能劳动力的需求。
(1)两部门生产函数形式的设定虽然简单,但可简化作用机制的分析,且结论并不失一般性。
(1)参看胡德宝,苏基溶.政府消费、贸易条件、生产率与人民币汇率[J].金融研究,2013(10):42-53。
(1)鉴于三种汇率指标的走势基本一致,且按贸易总额占比加权的汇率指标更能全面反映行业竞争力,因此,稳健性检验主要采用按贸易总额加权的汇率进行了回归估计。
(2)实际汇率贬值提高了出口商利润,可能促使企业雇佣更多技能劳动力以提升产品质量,Mallick(2009)、Alvarez和Lopez(2009)的研究为这一观点提供了实证支持。