海洋灾害对海洋经济增长影响研究——基于内生经济增长与拓展C-D函数
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摘要
基于内生经济增长视角,将海洋灾害损失与海洋科技进步内生化,与海洋劳动力和资本要素一并作为海洋经济生产驱动因素,测度海洋灾害对海洋经济增长的影响。研究表明,海洋灾害对当年海洋经济增长有负向影响,对灾后第2年海洋经济增长具有拉动作用,且长期呈现负作用。究其原因,海洋灾害主要通过破坏海洋经济生产基础设施、设备以及渔业资源等生产资本影响当期海洋经济增长;通过更新海洋科技和海洋经济生产资本存量拉动灾后海洋经济增长;长期来看,海洋灾害对海洋经济生产要素破坏作用大于对要素的更新作用。
The rising frequency of marine disasters in China has brought increasing losses, seriously threatened the safety of life and property of people in coastal areas and other areas and further aggravated the contradiction between the development of marine economy and the construction of marine ecological civilization. Marine disasters affected the development of marine economy, and marine economy growth may also be one of the reasons for the outbreak of marine disasters. Therefore, it is practically significant to discuss the issue of marine disasters and marine economy combined with disaster economics researches, propose marine disaster prevention and control measures, reduce the losses of marine disasters from the perspective of economics to enhance the ability of prevention and mitigation of marine disasters, promote the construction of marine ecological civilization and the realization of marine economy sustainable development. Based on the perspective of endogenous economy growth, the economic losses of marine disasters and marine technology progress were treated as endogenous driving factors, together with marine labor and capital factors, to measure the effect of marine disasters on marine economy growth. It could enrich the research literature of the marine disaster economy to a certain extent, and provide empirical evidence for the relationship between"marine disasters"and"marine economy growth". Empirical study showed that marine disasters had negative effects on the growth of marine economy in the past year, had a pulling effect on the 2 a marine economic growth, and had a long-term negative effect. Investigating the reasons, marine disasters affected the current marine economy growth mainly through damaging the marine economic production infrastructure, equipment and marine fishery resources;post-disaster restoration and reconstruction work was the process of updating the marine economic production capital stock and the marine economic production technology, which stimulated the marine economic growth.In the long term, the damaging function of marine disasters to marine economy production elements was greater than the updating function. Therefore, recovering the marine economic production activities, increasing the marine economic production capital investment, developing industry related to marine disasters and improving the system of marine disaster insurances should be carried out quickly after a marine disaster. The marine disasters recovery and reconstruction demand, the introduction of relevant business investment, loosening monetary policy, increasing the loans of industry affected by marine disasters, and leading the post-disaster marine science and technology innovation should be started. In the long term, to formulate a comprehensive plan for disaster prevention and mitigation of marine disaster, raise the awareness of marine disasters prevention and mitigation in the whole society, pay attention to marine ecological environment protection and restoration, and effectively improve marine disasters prevention and mitigation capacity must be put on the agenda.
The rising frequency of marine disasters in China has brought increasing losses, seriously threatened the safety of life and property of people in coastal areas and other areas and further aggravated the contradiction between the development of marine economy and the construction of marine ecological civilization. Marine disasters affected the development of marine economy, and marine economy growth may also be one of the reasons for the outbreak of marine disasters. Therefore, it is practically significant to discuss the issue of marine disasters and marine economy combined with disaster economics researches, propose marine disaster prevention and control measures, reduce the losses of marine disasters from the perspective of economics to enhance the ability of prevention and mitigation of marine disasters, promote the construction of marine ecological civilization and the realization of marine economy sustainable development. Based on the perspective of endogenous economy growth, the economic losses of marine disasters and marine technology progress were treated as endogenous driving factors, together with marine labor and capital factors, to measure the effect of marine disasters on marine economy growth. It could enrich the research literature of the marine disaster economy to a certain extent, and provide empirical evidence for the relationship between"marine disasters"and"marine economy growth". Empirical study showed that marine disasters had negative effects on the growth of marine economy in the past year, had a pulling effect on the 2 a marine economic growth, and had a long-term negative effect. Investigating the reasons, marine disasters affected the current marine economy growth mainly through damaging the marine economic production infrastructure, equipment and marine fishery resources;post-disaster restoration and reconstruction work was the process of updating the marine economic production capital stock and the marine economic production technology, which stimulated the marine economic growth.In the long term, the damaging function of marine disasters to marine economy production elements was greater than the updating function. Therefore, recovering the marine economic production activities, increasing the marine economic production capital investment, developing industry related to marine disasters and improving the system of marine disaster insurances should be carried out quickly after a marine disaster. The marine disasters recovery and reconstruction demand, the introduction of relevant business investment, loosening monetary policy, increasing the loans of industry affected by marine disasters, and leading the post-disaster marine science and technology innovation should be started. In the long term, to formulate a comprehensive plan for disaster prevention and mitigation of marine disaster, raise the awareness of marine disasters prevention and mitigation in the whole society, pay attention to marine ecological environment protection and restoration, and effectively improve marine disasters prevention and mitigation capacity must be put on the agenda.
引文
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[23]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.[Shan Haojie.Re-estimating the capital stock of China:1952-2006.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2008(10):17-31.]
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[2]李博,杨智,苏飞,等.基于集对分析的中国海洋经济系统脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):47-54.[Li Bo,Yang Zhi,Su Fei et al.Vulnerability measurement of Chinese marine economic system based on set pair analysis.Scientia Geographica sinica,2016,36(1):47-54.]
[3]韩增林,李彬,张坤领,等.基于CiteSpace中国海洋经济研究的知识图谱分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):643-652.[Han Zenglin,Li Bin,Zhang Kunling et al.Knowledge structure of china’s marine economy research:An analysis based on cite space map.Scientia Geographica sinica,2016,36(5):643-652.]
[4]高源,韩增林,杨俊,等.中国海洋产业空间集聚及其协调发展研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):946-951.[Gao Yuan,Han Zenglin,Yang Jun et al.Spatial agglomeration of marine industries and region coordinated development in China.Scientia Geographica sinica,2015,35(8):946-951.]
[5]王妍,金炜博,高强.海洋灾害与海洋经济影响关系研究进展[J].海洋开发与管理,2016,33(11):88-91.[Wang Yan,Jin Weibo,Gao Qiang.Research progress on the relationship between marine disasters and marine economy.Ocean Development and Management,2016,33(11):88-91.]
[6]Benson C.The economic impact of natural disasters in Viet Nam[J].Working Paper,1997,97(710):471-478.
[7]J M A lbala-Bertrand.Natural disaster situations and growth:Amacroeconomic model for sudden disaster impacts[J].World Development,1993,21(9):1417-1434.
[8]Mcdermott T K J,Barry F,Tol R S J.Disasters and development:natural disasters,credit constraints,and economic growth[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2011,66(3):750-773.
[9]周旭霞.自然灾害对经济增长的影响综述[J].灾害学,2009,24(1):112-116.[Zhou Xuxia.An overview on influence of natural disaster to economic growth.Journal of Catastrophology,2009,24(1):112-116.]
[10]贾美芹.略论我国自然灾害对宏观经济增长的影响--基于内生经济增长理论视角[J].经济问题,2013(8):54-57.[Jia Meiqin.Analysis of the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic growth-Based on the theory of endogenous growth.On Economic Problems,2013(8):54-57.]
[11]李宏.自然灾害与经济增长关系的实证研究--基于14国1970~2008年面板数据分析[J].价格月刊,2011(1):47-51.[Li Hong.Empirical study of the relationship between natural disasters and economic growth-Based on the analysis of panel data from 1970 to 2008.Price Monthly,2011(1):47-51.]
[12]王艺明,陈美兰,王晓.自然灾害对长期经济增长的影响[J].经济管理,2008(z1):144-150.[Wang Yiming,Chen Meilan,Wang Xiao.The impacts of natural disasters on long-term growth:Theoretical and empirical study.Economic Management,2008(z1):144-150.]
[13]闫绪娴.灾害损失与经济增长:基于中国2002~2011年的省际面板数据分析[J].宏观经济研究,2014(5):99-106.[Yan Xuxian.The disaster losses and economic growth:Based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 2002 to 2011.Macroeconomic Research,2014(5):99-106.]
[14]赵领娣.海洋灾害及海洋收入的经济学研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2007.[Zhao Lingdi.Economic research on marine disasters and marine income.Beijing:Economics Science Press,2007.]
[15]冯士筰.海洋灾害学及劳动经济学交叉研究的新探索--评价《海洋灾害及海洋收入的经济学研究》[J].渔业信息与战略,2008,23(11):9-10.[Feng Shizuo.A new discovery on crossed study for marine disaster science and labor economics:Evaluation on
[16]赵领娣,钱付鹏.预防海洋灾害供需与渔民增收分析[J].中国渔业经济,2008,26(4):84-88.[Zhao Lingdi,Qian Fupeng.Prevention of marine disaster and increase of fishermen income.Chinese Fisheries Economics,2008,26(4):84-88.]
[17]赵昕,梁刈,李莉.风暴潮灾害损失和经济增长的耦合关系研究[J].中国渔业经济,2010,28(5):126-136.[Zhao Xin,Liang Yi,Li Li.Study on the coupling relation between the losses of storm surge disaster and the economic development.Chinese Fisheries Economics,2010,28(5):126-136.]
[18]杨黎静,徐志良,娄全胜,等.海洋灾害的外部不经济性及对策探讨[J].海洋湖沼通报,2012(1):156-160.[Yang Lijing,Xu Zhiliang,Lou Quansheng et al.Elementary discuss on marine disasters external dis-economy and its countermeasures.Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2012(1):156-160.]
[19]杨林,韩科技,陈子扬.沿海地区经济增长与海洋灾害损失的动态关系研究:1989~2011年[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):969-975.[Yang Lin,Han Keji,Chen Ziyang.Dynamic relationship between economic growth in coastal area and marine disaster losses.Scientia Geographica sinica,2015,35(8):969-975.]
[20]杨林,成前,王悦.海洋灾害与海洋经济发展的脉冲响应分析[J].海洋环境科学,2014,33(3):431-435.[Yang Lin,Cheng Qian,Wang Yue.Impulse response analysis of marine disasters and marine economic development.Marine Environmental Science,2014,33(3):431-435.]
[21]潘士远,史晋川.内生经济增长理论:一个文献综述[J].经济学,2002,1(4):753-786.[Pan Shiyuan,Shi Jinchuan.Endogenous economic growth theory:A survey.China Economic Quarterly,2002,1(4):753-786.]
[22]罗奎,方创琳,马海涛.基于生产函数视角的城镇化动力机制研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(3):394-399.[Luo Kui,Fang Chuanglin,Ma Haitao.Dynamic mechanism of urbanization based on production function.Scientia Geographica sinica,2017,37(3):394-399.]
[23]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952~2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.[Shan Haojie.Re-estimating the capital stock of China:1952-2006.The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2008(10):17-31.]
[24]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2001-2014.[Oceanic Administration of People’s Republic of China.China marine statistical yearbook.Beijing:Ocean Press,2001-2014.]