“一带一路”倡议在东南亚的进程与展望
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摘要
通过分析东南亚地区三个具有代表性的国家——老挝、马来西亚和越南对"一带一路"的态度及其与中国在"一带一路"框架下可能合作的领域,可以发现"一带一路"广受东南亚国家关注,但不同国家反应的积极程度有所不同:以老挝为代表的地区国家,对"一带一路"几乎没有顾虑,期待更多来自中国的投资,希望进一步加强与中国的经济合作;以马来西亚为代表的地区国家,合作愿望较强烈,但同时在一些领域有所保留,尤其是涉及海洋合作;以越南为代表的地区国家,官方表态积极,但由于各种因素与中国的实际合作受到诸多制约。从总体上讲,"一带一路"建设未来会在东南亚持续推进,中国相关部门和投资者应该关注四个方面:切实维持南海和平与稳定、着力改善中国企业在东南亚的形象、更多关注在东南亚投资的政治风险、妥善处理东南亚地区的海外华人问题。
Southeast Asia is an important region for the Belt and Road Initiative. This paper attempts to analyse the progress of the BRI in the past five years and prospect of this initiative in the region. We focus on three countries that broadly represent all regional states in terms of their level of positive responsiveness to the BRI and willingness to work with China under this policy platform. The three countries include Laos,Malaysia,and Vietnam. Our findings suggest that all regional countries welcome the BRI,but the levels of their receptiveness vary. Very likely,the BRI will continue to be implemented in the region in the coming years and decades. But there are significant constraints for a smooth progression of the initiative in the region,including the South China Sea disputes,geopolitical contestations,concerns about the quality of Chinese investments,and the ethnic Chinese issue.
Southeast Asia is an important region for the Belt and Road Initiative. This paper attempts to analyse the progress of the BRI in the past five years and prospect of this initiative in the region. We focus on three countries that broadly represent all regional states in terms of their level of positive responsiveness to the BRI and willingness to work with China under this policy platform. The three countries include Laos,Malaysia,and Vietnam. Our findings suggest that all regional countries welcome the BRI,but the levels of their receptiveness vary. Very likely,the BRI will continue to be implemented in the region in the coming years and decades. But there are significant constraints for a smooth progression of the initiative in the region,including the South China Sea disputes,geopolitical contestations,concerns about the quality of Chinese investments,and the ethnic Chinese issue.
引文
(1)Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO),Proposal for Improving Business Environment in Lao PDR (2015),conference presentation shared by a Lao scholar,March 2017.
(2)Lao People's Revolutionary Party, The Resolution of the Sixth Congress of LPRP,1996.
(3)Government of Lao PDR,Industrialization and Modernization Strategy toward 2020,2016.
(4)Government of Lao PDR,2030 Vision and 2025 Strategy,2016.
(5)Ibid..
(6)Ibid..
(7)“Myanmar,Laos open first friendship bridge”, Xinhuanet, May 9,2015,http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-05/09/c_134224520.htm,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(8)Ministry of Planning and Investment,Development Master Plan for 9 Northern Provinces,2008.
(9)“Updates from the Laos-China Railway Project”,Laotian Times,Feb. 28,2018,https://laotiantimes.com/2018/02/28/updates-from-the-laos-china-railway-project/,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(10)《中老铁路解局:为何这么难,为何仍要建?》,中国一带一路网,https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/xwzx/gnxw/69212. htm,登录时间:2019年1月15日。
(11)Investment Promotion Department, Laos PDR,Sepecail Economic Zones (SEZ),http://www.investlaos.gov.la/index.php/where-to-invest/special-economic-zone?limitstart=0,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(12)《老挝“金三角”借旅游正名贫困村渐成现代化城镇》,中国新闻网,2016年3月22日,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2016/03-22/7807270.shtml,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(13)《 “一带一路”产业投资正当时:亚洲财经海外布局金三角经济特区》,亚洲财经商学院,2018年10月23日,http://www.sohu.com/a/270674911_39699,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(14)“Najib creates history in diplomatic ties with China-Annuar ”,Nov. 5,2016,New Straits Times,http://www.nst.com. my/news/2016/11/186065/najib-creates-history-diplomatic-ties-china-annuar,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(15)Interviews with researchers at Malaysian Institute of Maritime Affairs,April 2017.
(16)“Malaysia hopes to become a high-income country by 2020”,EU-Asia Economic Governance Forum,April 28,2016, https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=0f87c7f5-379b-c12a-1d8a-355e9d055fd8&groupId=252038,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(17)“Kuala Lumpur—Singapore high-speed rail tender to be called ‘within a year’”,The Straits Time,July 18,2016,http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/kl-spore-high-speed-rail-tender-to-be-called-within-a-year,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(18)“Eleventh Malaysia Plan (2016-2020)”,Economic Planning Unit,Prime Minister's Department,http://www.epu.gov.my/en/rmk/eleventh-malaysia-plan-2016-2020,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(19)“China emerged as Malaysia's second largest investor in the manufacturing sector”, The Star Online,Nov. 1,2016,http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/11/01/china-emerges-as-second-largest-investor-in-manufacturing-sector/#lQG0Fhkrt6zH6mPE.99,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(20)“China overtakes Singapore as Malaysia's largest property investor”,CCTV News (English),Mar. 29,2017,http://english.cctv.com/2017/03/29/ARTI7T1DODNv61ZfZuv8NioV170329.shtml,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(21)《厦门大学在马来西亚开设分校推动中国软实力走向世界》,中国网,2017年7月7日,http://news.china.com.cn/world/2017-07/07/content_41172790.htm,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(22)“Bank of China (Malaysia) appointed clearing bank for RMB business in Malaysia”,Borneo Post Online,Jan. 6,2015,http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/01/06/bank-of-china-malaysia-appointed-clearing-bank-for-rmb-business-in-malaysia/,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(23)“Jack Ma to launch Alibaba's regional distribution hub in Malaysia:Sources”,Reuters,Mar. 18,2017,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-alibaba-idUSKBN16P041,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(24)Lockman,S.,“The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and China-Malaysia Relations”,Guangdong Institute for International Strategies,Mar. 11,2017,http://giis.gdufs.edu.cn/info/1356/7413.htm,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(25)《“一带一路”与马来西亚——邓秀珉访谈》,FT中文网,2018年10月15日,http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001079769 full=y&archive,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(26)《马哈蒂尔猛批中资房地产项目引多方热议》,VOA,2018年9月10日,https://www.voachinese.com/a/malaysia-china-forest-city-20180910/4564618.html,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(27)《被指拖欠数千万令吉马六甲中资皇京港工程暂停》,《联合早报》2018年11月8日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/znews/sea/story20181108-905650,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(28)“Economic Malays:A guide to Malaysia's politics and economics in graphics”,The Economist,Sep.25,2015,http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/malaysia-graphics,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(29)Alias,A. and Nasir Daud,M.D., “Payment of adequate compensation for land acquisition in Malaysia”,Pacific Rim Property Research Journal 12(3),2015,pp.326-349.
(30)Interviews with scholars at Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences,April 2017.
(31)Interviews with scholars at Vietnam Diplomatic Academy,April 2017.
(32)《越南电力部减少从中国进口电力》,国际电力网,2016年9月6日,http://power.in-en.com/html/power-2264389.shtml,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(33)《担心遭中资支配越南民众抗议新经济特区计划》,《联合早报》2018年6月11日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/sea/politic/story20180611-866076,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(34)Vietnam,2016-2020 Fostering More Inclusive and Environmentally Sustainable Growth, Asian Development Bank Country Partnership Strategy,2016,https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/199661/cps-vie-2016-2020.pdf,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(2)Lao People's Revolutionary Party, The Resolution of the Sixth Congress of LPRP,1996.
(3)Government of Lao PDR,Industrialization and Modernization Strategy toward 2020,2016.
(4)Government of Lao PDR,2030 Vision and 2025 Strategy,2016.
(5)Ibid..
(6)Ibid..
(7)“Myanmar,Laos open first friendship bridge”, Xinhuanet, May 9,2015,http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-05/09/c_134224520.htm,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(8)Ministry of Planning and Investment,Development Master Plan for 9 Northern Provinces,2008.
(9)“Updates from the Laos-China Railway Project”,Laotian Times,Feb. 28,2018,https://laotiantimes.com/2018/02/28/updates-from-the-laos-china-railway-project/,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(10)《中老铁路解局:为何这么难,为何仍要建?》,中国一带一路网,https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/xwzx/gnxw/69212. htm,登录时间:2019年1月15日。
(11)Investment Promotion Department, Laos PDR,Sepecail Economic Zones (SEZ),http://www.investlaos.gov.la/index.php/where-to-invest/special-economic-zone?limitstart=0,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(12)《老挝“金三角”借旅游正名贫困村渐成现代化城镇》,中国新闻网,2016年3月22日,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2016/03-22/7807270.shtml,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(13)《 “一带一路”产业投资正当时:亚洲财经海外布局金三角经济特区》,亚洲财经商学院,2018年10月23日,http://www.sohu.com/a/270674911_39699,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(14)“Najib creates history in diplomatic ties with China-Annuar ”,Nov. 5,2016,New Straits Times,http://www.nst.com. my/news/2016/11/186065/najib-creates-history-diplomatic-ties-china-annuar,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(15)Interviews with researchers at Malaysian Institute of Maritime Affairs,April 2017.
(16)“Malaysia hopes to become a high-income country by 2020”,EU-Asia Economic Governance Forum,April 28,2016, https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=0f87c7f5-379b-c12a-1d8a-355e9d055fd8&groupId=252038,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(17)“Kuala Lumpur—Singapore high-speed rail tender to be called ‘within a year’”,The Straits Time,July 18,2016,http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/kl-spore-high-speed-rail-tender-to-be-called-within-a-year,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(18)“Eleventh Malaysia Plan (2016-2020)”,Economic Planning Unit,Prime Minister's Department,http://www.epu.gov.my/en/rmk/eleventh-malaysia-plan-2016-2020,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(19)“China emerged as Malaysia's second largest investor in the manufacturing sector”, The Star Online,Nov. 1,2016,http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/11/01/china-emerges-as-second-largest-investor-in-manufacturing-sector/#lQG0Fhkrt6zH6mPE.99,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(20)“China overtakes Singapore as Malaysia's largest property investor”,CCTV News (English),Mar. 29,2017,http://english.cctv.com/2017/03/29/ARTI7T1DODNv61ZfZuv8NioV170329.shtml,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(21)《厦门大学在马来西亚开设分校推动中国软实力走向世界》,中国网,2017年7月7日,http://news.china.com.cn/world/2017-07/07/content_41172790.htm,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(22)“Bank of China (Malaysia) appointed clearing bank for RMB business in Malaysia”,Borneo Post Online,Jan. 6,2015,http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/01/06/bank-of-china-malaysia-appointed-clearing-bank-for-rmb-business-in-malaysia/,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(23)“Jack Ma to launch Alibaba's regional distribution hub in Malaysia:Sources”,Reuters,Mar. 18,2017,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-alibaba-idUSKBN16P041,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(24)Lockman,S.,“The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and China-Malaysia Relations”,Guangdong Institute for International Strategies,Mar. 11,2017,http://giis.gdufs.edu.cn/info/1356/7413.htm,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(25)《“一带一路”与马来西亚——邓秀珉访谈》,FT中文网,2018年10月15日,http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001079769 full=y&archive,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(26)《马哈蒂尔猛批中资房地产项目引多方热议》,VOA,2018年9月10日,https://www.voachinese.com/a/malaysia-china-forest-city-20180910/4564618.html,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(27)《被指拖欠数千万令吉马六甲中资皇京港工程暂停》,《联合早报》2018年11月8日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/znews/sea/story20181108-905650,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(28)“Economic Malays:A guide to Malaysia's politics and economics in graphics”,The Economist,Sep.25,2015,http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/malaysia-graphics,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.
(29)Alias,A. and Nasir Daud,M.D., “Payment of adequate compensation for land acquisition in Malaysia”,Pacific Rim Property Research Journal 12(3),2015,pp.326-349.
(30)Interviews with scholars at Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences,April 2017.
(31)Interviews with scholars at Vietnam Diplomatic Academy,April 2017.
(32)《越南电力部减少从中国进口电力》,国际电力网,2016年9月6日,http://power.in-en.com/html/power-2264389.shtml,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(33)《担心遭中资支配越南民众抗议新经济特区计划》,《联合早报》2018年6月11日,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/sea/politic/story20180611-866076,登录时间:2019年1月10日。
(34)Vietnam,2016-2020 Fostering More Inclusive and Environmentally Sustainable Growth, Asian Development Bank Country Partnership Strategy,2016,https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/199661/cps-vie-2016-2020.pdf,visited on 10 Jan. 2019.