基于VIC模型构建的综合干旱指数在黄河流域的应用
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摘要
【目的】研究黄河流域年内和年际尺度的干旱特征,为评估干旱、半干旱地区极端气候提供参考。【方法】基于VIC模型划分0.5°×0.5°经纬网,结合黄河流域多年降水资料,将子流域所有网格日径流取均值,采用GPP(Gringorten plotting position)算法构建非参数多变量综合干旱指数(Non-parametric multivariate standardized drought index,NMSDI),并在黄河流域进行了实例应用。【结果】(1)在6个月尺度上,干旱初期NMSDI指数与标准化降水指数(Standardized precipitation index,SPI)类似,末期与标准化流量指数(Standardized streamnow index,SSI)类似。(2)黄河上游及北部干旱较其他区域更为严重,旱灾风险春夏高、秋冬低。(3)黄河流域年内和年际的NMSDI指数以降低为主,但R/S分析表明,降低的趋势在未来有所减缓。(4)黄河流域年际NMSDI系列趋于稳定,仅渭河流域在1991年出现突变,可能是气候变化与人类活动耦合的结果。【结论】与传统的干旱指标相比,NMSDI综合了气象、水文干旱指标的特点且不依赖于假设的分布函数,可以有效捕获干旱状态,同时避免了不同指标之间不能直接比较的不足,在研究流域有较好的适用性。
【Objective】This study investigated drought characteristics at annual and inter-annual scales in the Yellow River basin to provide reference for the assessment of extreme climate in arid and semi-arid regions.【Method】Grid cells with 0.5°×0.5°were set up based on VIC model.Combined with the multiply years precipitation data,the average runoffs of all sub basins were calculated,and the plotting position Gringorten algorithm was used to construct a non-parametric multivariate standardized drought index(NMSDI).【Result】(1)On 6-months scale,NMSDI was similar as standardized precipitation index(SPI)in early drought and similar as standardized streamnow index(SSI)in end drought.(2)The drought in the upper reaches and north of Yellow River was more severe than other regions,and drought risk in spring and summer was higher than in autumn and winter.(3)The annual and inter annual NMSDI indexes of the Yellow River basin decreased,while R/S analysis showed that the trend in future would reduce.(4)In the Yellow River basin,annual NMSDI series would tend still,only mutations occurred in the Wei River basinin 1991 as a result of climate change and human activities.【Conclusion】Compared with traditional drought index,NMSDI does not rely on assumptions about the distribution of function and avoids the lack of different indicators.It has good applicability in the study watershed.
【Objective】This study investigated drought characteristics at annual and inter-annual scales in the Yellow River basin to provide reference for the assessment of extreme climate in arid and semi-arid regions.【Method】Grid cells with 0.5°×0.5°were set up based on VIC model.Combined with the multiply years precipitation data,the average runoffs of all sub basins were calculated,and the plotting position Gringorten algorithm was used to construct a non-parametric multivariate standardized drought index(NMSDI).【Result】(1)On 6-months scale,NMSDI was similar as standardized precipitation index(SPI)in early drought and similar as standardized streamnow index(SSI)in end drought.(2)The drought in the upper reaches and north of Yellow River was more severe than other regions,and drought risk in spring and summer was higher than in autumn and winter.(3)The annual and inter annual NMSDI indexes of the Yellow River basin decreased,while R/S analysis showed that the trend in future would reduce.(4)In the Yellow River basin,annual NMSDI series would tend still,only mutations occurred in the Wei River basinin 1991 as a result of climate change and human activities.【Conclusion】Compared with traditional drought index,NMSDI does not rely on assumptions about the distribution of function and avoids the lack of different indicators.It has good applicability in the study watershed.
引文
[1]李芬,于文金,张建新,等.干旱灾害评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):891-898.Li F,Yu W J,Zhang J X,et al.Review of drought disaster evaluation[J].Progress in Geography,2011,30(7):891-898.
[2]黄建平,季明霞,刘玉芝,等.干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):9-14.Huang J P,Ji M X,Liu Y Z,et al.An overview of arid and semi-arid climate change[J].Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(1):9-14.
[3]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.Zhang Q,Han L Y,Zhang L Y,et al.Analysis on the character and management strategy of drought disaster and risk under the climatic warming[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(1):80-91.
[4]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.Huang W H,Yang X G,Li M S,et al.Evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of China during the past 58years based on standardized precipitation index[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(7):50-59.
[5]姚玉璧,董安详,王毅荣,等.基于帕默尔干旱指数的中国春季区域干旱特征比较研究[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):22-29.Yao Y B,Dong A X,Wang Y R,et al.Compare research of the regional arid characteristic base on Palmer drought severity index in spring over China[J].Arid Land Geography,2007,30(1):22-29.
[6]马柱国,符淙斌.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(6):737-746.Ma Z G,Fu C B.Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of northern China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2001,59(6):737-746.
[7]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.Yuan W P,Zhou G S.Comparison between standardized precipitation index and Z-index in China[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):523-529.
[8]魏凤英,曹鸿兴.华北干旱异常的地域特征[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(2):205-211.Wei F Y,Cao H X.Regional characteristics of drought anomalies in north China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1998,9(2):205-211.
[9]李剑锋,张强,陈晓宏.基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(3):322-330.Li J F,Zhang Q,Chen X H.SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2012,23(3):322-330.
[10]王升,王全九.近50年黄土地区气候与潜在蒸散量变化及其影响因素分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(1):270-278.Wang S,Wang Q J.Analysis of variation of climate and potential evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the Loess area in last 50years[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2012,30(1):270-278.
[11]Richard R,Heim J.美国20世纪干旱指数评述[J].干旱气象,2006,24(1):79-89.Richard R,Heim J.Review of drought index in the United States in twentieth Century[J].Arid Meteorology,2006,24(1):79-89.
[12]McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//The 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim:American Meteorological Society,1993:179-184.
[13]Guttman N B.Accepting the standardized precipitation index:a calculation algorithm[J].J Am Water Resour Assoc,1999,35(2):311-322.
[14]马俊超,杭庆丰,李琼芳,等.基于VIC模型的滦河流域综合干旱指数的构建与应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):70-84.Ma J C,Hang Q F,Li Q F,et al.Construction and application of integrated drought index in Luanhe river basin based on VIC model[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(2):70-84.
[15]Liang X,Lettenmaier D P,Wood E F,et al.A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs[J].J Geophys Res,1994,99:14415-14428.
[16]任美锷.黄河的输沙量:过去、现在和将来,距今15万年以来的黄河泥沙收支表[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(6):551-563.Ren M E.Sediment discharge of the Yellow River,China:past,present and future:A synthesis[J].Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(6):551-563.
[17]张善强.黄河流域夏季旱涝变化及气候物理因素的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27:40-44.Zhang S Q.Characteristics of changes of summer drought and flood and impact of climatic physical factors on these changes in the Yellow River valley China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2011,27(3):40-44.
[18]刘吉峰,王金花,焦敏辉,等.全球气候变化背景下中国黄河流域的响应[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(5):860-865.Liu J F,Wang J H,Jiao M H,et al.Response of water resources in the Yellow River basin to global climate change[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(5):860-865.
[19]Liang X,Wood E F,Lettenmaier D P.Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2Lmodel:evaluation and modification[J].Global and Planetary Change,1996,13(1):195-206.
[20]Liang X,Xie Z H.A new surface runoff parameterization with subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity for land surface models[J].Advances in Water Resources,2001,24(9/10):1173-1193.
[21]方开泰.均匀设计与均匀设计表[M].北京:科学出版社,1994:7-13.Fang K T.Uniform design and uniform design table[M].Beijing:Science Press,1994:7-13.
[22]方开泰.均匀试验设计原理、方法和应用[J].论数理统计与管理,2004,23(3):69-80.Fang K T.The uniform design theory,method and application[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management,2004,23(3):69-80.
[23]Gringorten I I.A plotting rule for extreme probability paper[J].J Geophys Res,1963,68(3):813-814.
[24]Farahmand A,Aghakouchak A.A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators[J].Advances Water Resources,2015,76:140-145
[25]何福力,胡彩虹,王纪军,等.基于标准化降水、径流指数的黄河流域近50年气象水文干旱演变分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):69-75.He F L,Hu C H,Wang J J,et al.Analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in Yellow River Basin during the past 50years based on SPI and SDI[J].Geography and GeoInformation Science,2015,31(3):69-75.
[26]于延胜,陈兴伟.基于Mann-Kendall法的水文序列趋势成分比重研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9):1586-1591.Yu Y S,Chen X W.Study on the percentage of trend component in a hydrological time series based on Mann-Kendall method[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(9):1586-1591.
[27]杨胜天,刘昌明,孙睿.黄河流域干旱状况变化的气候与植被特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2):136-141.Yan S T,Liu C M,Sun R.The analysis of drought related climatic and vegetative features in the Yellow River basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(2):136-141.
[28]Hurst H E.Method of using long-term storage in reservoirs[J].ICE Proceedings,1956,5(5):519-543.
[29]Bernaola-Galvon P,Ivanov P C,Nanes Amaral L A,et al.Scale invariance in the nonstationarity of human heart rate[J].Physical Review Letters,2001,87(16):168105(1-4).
[2]黄建平,季明霞,刘玉芝,等.干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):9-14.Huang J P,Ji M X,Liu Y Z,et al.An overview of arid and semi-arid climate change[J].Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(1):9-14.
[3]张强,韩兰英,张立阳,等.论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(1):80-91.Zhang Q,Han L Y,Zhang L Y,et al.Analysis on the character and management strategy of drought disaster and risk under the climatic warming[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(1):80-91.
[4]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.Huang W H,Yang X G,Li M S,et al.Evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of China during the past 58years based on standardized precipitation index[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(7):50-59.
[5]姚玉璧,董安详,王毅荣,等.基于帕默尔干旱指数的中国春季区域干旱特征比较研究[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):22-29.Yao Y B,Dong A X,Wang Y R,et al.Compare research of the regional arid characteristic base on Palmer drought severity index in spring over China[J].Arid Land Geography,2007,30(1):22-29.
[6]马柱国,符淙斌.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(6):737-746.Ma Z G,Fu C B.Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of northern China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2001,59(6):737-746.
[7]袁文平,周广胜.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(4):523-529.Yuan W P,Zhou G S.Comparison between standardized precipitation index and Z-index in China[J].Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2004,28(4):523-529.
[8]魏凤英,曹鸿兴.华北干旱异常的地域特征[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(2):205-211.Wei F Y,Cao H X.Regional characteristics of drought anomalies in north China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1998,9(2):205-211.
[9]李剑锋,张强,陈晓宏.基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变[J].应用气象学报,2012,23(3):322-330.Li J F,Zhang Q,Chen X H.SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2012,23(3):322-330.
[10]王升,王全九.近50年黄土地区气候与潜在蒸散量变化及其影响因素分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(1):270-278.Wang S,Wang Q J.Analysis of variation of climate and potential evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the Loess area in last 50years[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2012,30(1):270-278.
[11]Richard R,Heim J.美国20世纪干旱指数评述[J].干旱气象,2006,24(1):79-89.Richard R,Heim J.Review of drought index in the United States in twentieth Century[J].Arid Meteorology,2006,24(1):79-89.
[12]McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//The 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim:American Meteorological Society,1993:179-184.
[13]Guttman N B.Accepting the standardized precipitation index:a calculation algorithm[J].J Am Water Resour Assoc,1999,35(2):311-322.
[14]马俊超,杭庆丰,李琼芳,等.基于VIC模型的滦河流域综合干旱指数的构建与应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):70-84.Ma J C,Hang Q F,Li Q F,et al.Construction and application of integrated drought index in Luanhe river basin based on VIC model[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(2):70-84.
[15]Liang X,Lettenmaier D P,Wood E F,et al.A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs[J].J Geophys Res,1994,99:14415-14428.
[16]任美锷.黄河的输沙量:过去、现在和将来,距今15万年以来的黄河泥沙收支表[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(6):551-563.Ren M E.Sediment discharge of the Yellow River,China:past,present and future:A synthesis[J].Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(6):551-563.
[17]张善强.黄河流域夏季旱涝变化及气候物理因素的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27:40-44.Zhang S Q.Characteristics of changes of summer drought and flood and impact of climatic physical factors on these changes in the Yellow River valley China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2011,27(3):40-44.
[18]刘吉峰,王金花,焦敏辉,等.全球气候变化背景下中国黄河流域的响应[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(5):860-865.Liu J F,Wang J H,Jiao M H,et al.Response of water resources in the Yellow River basin to global climate change[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(5):860-865.
[19]Liang X,Wood E F,Lettenmaier D P.Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2Lmodel:evaluation and modification[J].Global and Planetary Change,1996,13(1):195-206.
[20]Liang X,Xie Z H.A new surface runoff parameterization with subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity for land surface models[J].Advances in Water Resources,2001,24(9/10):1173-1193.
[21]方开泰.均匀设计与均匀设计表[M].北京:科学出版社,1994:7-13.Fang K T.Uniform design and uniform design table[M].Beijing:Science Press,1994:7-13.
[22]方开泰.均匀试验设计原理、方法和应用[J].论数理统计与管理,2004,23(3):69-80.Fang K T.The uniform design theory,method and application[J].Journal of Applied Statistics and Management,2004,23(3):69-80.
[23]Gringorten I I.A plotting rule for extreme probability paper[J].J Geophys Res,1963,68(3):813-814.
[24]Farahmand A,Aghakouchak A.A generalized framework for deriving nonparametric standardized drought indicators[J].Advances Water Resources,2015,76:140-145
[25]何福力,胡彩虹,王纪军,等.基于标准化降水、径流指数的黄河流域近50年气象水文干旱演变分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):69-75.He F L,Hu C H,Wang J J,et al.Analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in Yellow River Basin during the past 50years based on SPI and SDI[J].Geography and GeoInformation Science,2015,31(3):69-75.
[26]于延胜,陈兴伟.基于Mann-Kendall法的水文序列趋势成分比重研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9):1586-1591.Yu Y S,Chen X W.Study on the percentage of trend component in a hydrological time series based on Mann-Kendall method[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(9):1586-1591.
[27]杨胜天,刘昌明,孙睿.黄河流域干旱状况变化的气候与植被特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(2):136-141.Yan S T,Liu C M,Sun R.The analysis of drought related climatic and vegetative features in the Yellow River basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(2):136-141.
[28]Hurst H E.Method of using long-term storage in reservoirs[J].ICE Proceedings,1956,5(5):519-543.
[29]Bernaola-Galvon P,Ivanov P C,Nanes Amaral L A,et al.Scale invariance in the nonstationarity of human heart rate[J].Physical Review Letters,2001,87(16):168105(1-4).