层次分析法和GIS技术在河南省雷电灾害风险区划中的应用
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摘要
根据自然灾害风险评估理论,利用闪电定位资料、地理信息数据、社会经济数据以及雷电灾情等数据,采用层次分析法(AHP法),从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露度和承灾体的脆弱性方面,研究雷电灾害风险评估及区划方法,建立起评价指标与风险评估的定量关系,形成了河南省雷电灾害风险评估的方法.同时,结合GIS技术,形成了致灾因子危险性分布图、承灾体的暴露度分布图和承灾体的脆弱性分布图,最终叠加形成河南省雷电灾害综合风险区划图.区划结果表明:高风险区主要位于豫东和豫西北大部分地区,低风险区主要位于豫北和豫西南部分地区.
Under the guidelines of the natural disaster system theory,this study aims at a methodology for the risk zoning of thunder and lightning in Henan province.Specifically,this study utilizes the AHP method and uses meteorological,geo-informational,socioeconomic,and thunder and lightning disaster data to establisha quantitative relation between the assessment indexes and the risk zoning of thunder and lightning.Considering the disaster-inducing factors,environment of breeding disasters and hazard-bearing bodies.based on the GIS platform,Distribution of the disaster-inducing factors,Vulnerability of Hazard-affected Body,frangibility of Hazard-affected Body were formed.Finally,the result of risk zoning of thunder and lightning over Henan province was achieved via superposition.The results show that ahigh risk of thunder and lighting is mainly in East and Northwest Henan,while low risk is mainly in parts of North Henan and Southwest Henan.
Under the guidelines of the natural disaster system theory,this study aims at a methodology for the risk zoning of thunder and lightning in Henan province.Specifically,this study utilizes the AHP method and uses meteorological,geo-informational,socioeconomic,and thunder and lightning disaster data to establisha quantitative relation between the assessment indexes and the risk zoning of thunder and lightning.Considering the disaster-inducing factors,environment of breeding disasters and hazard-bearing bodies.based on the GIS platform,Distribution of the disaster-inducing factors,Vulnerability of Hazard-affected Body,frangibility of Hazard-affected Body were formed.Finally,the result of risk zoning of thunder and lightning over Henan province was achieved via superposition.The results show that ahigh risk of thunder and lighting is mainly in East and Northwest Henan,while low risk is mainly in parts of North Henan and Southwest Henan.
引文
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[12] 冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,28(1):27-29FENG Lihua.Risk analysis of meteorological elements based on information diffusion theory[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2000,28(1):27-29
[13] Saaty T.The analytical hierarchy process [M].New York:McgrawHill,1980
[14] 孙卫东,彭子成.灾度指数及其意义[J].灾害学,1995,10(2):16-20SUN Weidong,PENG Zicheng.Hazard rate index and its significance[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1995,10(2):16-20
[2] 李家启,李良福.雷电灾害风险评估与控制[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:12-15LI Jiaqi,LI Liangfu.Risk assessment and control of lightning disaster[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2010:12-15
[3] 程向阳,谢五三,王凯,等.雷电灾害风险区划方法研究及其在安徽省的应用[J].气象科学,2012,32(1):80-85CHENG Xiangyang,XIE Wusan,WANG Kai,et al.Method research of the risk zoning of thunder and lightning and its application over Anhui province[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(1):80-85
[4] 刘岩,李征,程向阳,等.安徽省雷电灾害风险区划[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2014,6(2):163-168LIU Yan,LI Zheng,CHENG Xiangyang,et al.Risk assessment of lightning in Anhui province[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology(Natural Science Edition),2014,6(2):163-168
[5] 扈海波,王迎春,熊亚军.基于层次分析模型的北京雷电灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(1):104-109HU Haibo,WANG Yingchun,XIONG Yajun.AHP model-based risk assessment of lightning in Beijing[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2010,19(1):104-109
[6] 殷娴,尹丽云,许迎杰,等.云南省雷灾特征分析及灾情评估[J].气象科技,2013,41(1):184-190YIN Xian,YIN Liyun,XU Yingjie,et al.Characteristics and valuation of thunder disasters in Yunnan[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2013,41(1):184-190
[7] 王清川,寿绍文,田晓飞,等.廊坊市雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].干旱气象,2009,27(4):402-409WANG Qingchuan,SHOU Shaowen,TIAN Xiaofei,et al.Vulnerability analysis,evaluation and vulnerability division of lightning disaster in Langfang of Hebei province[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2009,27(4):402-409
[8] 李浩,边学文.浙江省雷电灾害易损性分析及风险区划[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2014,6(4):336-341LI Hao,BIAN Xuewen.Vulnerability analysis and risk zoning of regional lightning disaster in Zhejiang province[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology(Natural Science Edition),2014,6(4):336-341
[9] 郭虎,熊亚军.北京市雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):35-40GUO Hu,XIONG Yajun.Vulnerability analysis,evaluation and vulnerability zoning of lightning disaster in Beijing[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2008,19(1):35-40
[10] 李彩莲,赵西社,赵东,等.陕西省雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].灾害学,2008,23(4):49-53LI Cailian,ZHAO Xishe,ZHAO Dong,et al.Vulnerability analysis' assessment and zoning of thunderstorm disasters in Shaanxi province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(4):49-53
[11] 程丽丹,张永刚,杨美荣,等.河南省雷电灾害易损性分析及风险区划[J].气象与环境科学,2011,34(3):50-55CHENG Lidan,ZHANG Yonggang,YANG Meirong,et al.Vulnerability analysis and risk zoning of regional lightning disaster in Henan province[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2011,34(3):50-55
[12] 冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,28(1):27-29FENG Lihua.Risk analysis of meteorological elements based on information diffusion theory[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2000,28(1):27-29
[13] Saaty T.The analytical hierarchy process [M].New York:McgrawHill,1980
[14] 孙卫东,彭子成.灾度指数及其意义[J].灾害学,1995,10(2):16-20SUN Weidong,PENG Zicheng.Hazard rate index and its significance[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1995,10(2):16-20