四川省强降水分布及变化特征研究
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摘要
利用1980—2012年四川省36个站点逐日降水资料,运用数理统计、一元线性回归、M-K突变检验、EEMD经验模态分解等方法,研究了四川省强降水分布以及时间演变规律。结果表明:四川省总体年平均降水量为1 039.6 mm,且年降水量总体呈递减趋势,每10年减少22.9 mm左右;中部地区年平均降水量相对较多,东部地区年平均降水量其次,西部地区年平均降水量相对较少。四川省降水量季节变化春季呈上升趋势,夏季、秋季和冬季呈现下降趋势。四川省大雨日数呈下降趋势,大约每10年大雨日数随时间会减少4.0 d。暴雨日数也呈下降趋势,大约每10年暴雨日数随时间会减少1.5 d。中部地区大雨日数、暴雨日数均较多,东部地区其次,西部地区相对较少。1992年为四川省年降水量开始突变年;降水序列在年际演变过程中,存在2～3年小尺度、5～10年中尺度、20年左右大尺度这3类时间尺度变化规律。根据趋势项得出四川省年降水量呈递减趋势。
Using the daily precipitation data of 36 stations in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2012,the mathematical statistics,linear regression,M-K mutation test,EEMD empirical mode decomposition were used to study the distribution and time evolution of strong precipitation in Sichuan Province.The results showed that the overall average annual precipitation was 1 039.6 mm in Sichuan Province,and the mean annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend,every 10 years reduced about 22.9 mm.The annual precipitation in central area of relatively large,the eastern area rainfall secondly,western region the average annual precipitation was less.Based on the variation of seasonal precipitation of Sichuan Province,the spring was on the rise,summer,autumn and winter showed a downward trend.Heavy rain days showed a decreasing trend,approximately every 10 years the number of heavy rain days time would be reduced by 4 days.Rainstorm day number also declined,approximately every 10 years the number of heavy rain days time would be reduced by 1.5 days.The central area of heavy rain days,rainstorm days were more,the eastern region secondly and western region was less.The results of M-K test show that,Sichuan Province in 1992 for the annual precipitation to the mutation years.Based on the annual precipitation was EEMD empirical mode decomposition obtains,precipitation sequence in the interannual evolution,variation of these 3 time scales are small scale,2-3 years 5-10 years,20 years or so large scale.
Using the daily precipitation data of 36 stations in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2012,the mathematical statistics,linear regression,M-K mutation test,EEMD empirical mode decomposition were used to study the distribution and time evolution of strong precipitation in Sichuan Province.The results showed that the overall average annual precipitation was 1 039.6 mm in Sichuan Province,and the mean annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend,every 10 years reduced about 22.9 mm.The annual precipitation in central area of relatively large,the eastern area rainfall secondly,western region the average annual precipitation was less.Based on the variation of seasonal precipitation of Sichuan Province,the spring was on the rise,summer,autumn and winter showed a downward trend.Heavy rain days showed a decreasing trend,approximately every 10 years the number of heavy rain days time would be reduced by 4 days.Rainstorm day number also declined,approximately every 10 years the number of heavy rain days time would be reduced by 1.5 days.The central area of heavy rain days,rainstorm days were more,the eastern region secondly and western region was less.The results of M-K test show that,Sichuan Province in 1992 for the annual precipitation to the mutation years.Based on the annual precipitation was EEMD empirical mode decomposition obtains,precipitation sequence in the interannual evolution,variation of these 3 time scales are small scale,2-3 years 5-10 years,20 years or so large scale.
引文
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[19] TASCHETTO A S,ENGLAND M H.An analysis of late twentieth century trends in Australian rainfall[J].International journal of climatology,2009,29(6):791-807.
[20] 郭元喜,王建立.山东极端降水的气候变化[J].中国水运(学术版),2008,8(1):175-177.
[21] 纪晓玲.宁夏雷暴天气气候和环流特征及典型过程分析[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.
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[23] WU Z H,HUANG N E.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assited data analysis method [J].Advances in adaptive data analysis,2009,1(1):1-41.
[2] KRISHNAKUMAR K N,PRASADA RAO G S L H V,GOPAKUMAR C S.Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala,India [J].Atmospheric environment,2009,43:1940-1944.
[3] DING Y H,WANG Z Y.A study of rainy seasons in China [J].Meteorology and atmospheric physics,2008,100:121-138.
[4] ZHANG Q,XU C Y,ZHANG Z,et al.Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over China,1951-2005[J].Theoretical and applied climatology,2009,95:53-68.
[5] YUAN Y J,HE Q,ZHANG J B,et al.The primary research of climate change features and their causes for the recent 40 years in Xinjiang [J].Proceedings of SPIE,2003,4890:373-379.
[6] 周长艳,岑思弦,李跃清,等.四川省近50年降水的变化特征及影响[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):619-630.
[7] 孙银凤,陆宝宏.基于EEMD的南京市降水特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(3):5-9.
[8] 尹承美,梁永礼,冉桂平,等.济南市区短时强降水特征分析[J].气象科学,2010,30(2):262-267.
[9] 王燕,王润元,王毅荣,等.近37年甘肃省降水特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(4):94-99.
[10] 李玲萍,杨永龙,钱莉.石羊河流域近45年气温和降水特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(5):705-710.
[11] 马京津,高晓清,曲迎乐.华北地区春季和夏季降水特征及与气候相关的分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(3):321-329.
[12] 郝立生,丁一汇.华北降水变化研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(5):593-601.
[13] 安文芝,祝玲敏,周文强,等.西北地区降水特征及变化规律分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2006,24(4):194-199.
[14] 王绍武,蔡静宁,朱锦红,等.中国气候变化的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):137-145.
[15] 叶柏生,李羽中,杨大庆,等.我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅰ):年系列[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(5):587-594.
[16] 叶柏生,李羽中,杨大庆,等.我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅱ):月系列[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(1):100-105.
[17] 施雅风.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型问题评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[18] NEW M G,TODD M C,HULME M,et al.Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century[J].International journal of climatology,2001,21(15):1899-1922.
[19] TASCHETTO A S,ENGLAND M H.An analysis of late twentieth century trends in Australian rainfall[J].International journal of climatology,2009,29(6):791-807.
[20] 郭元喜,王建立.山东极端降水的气候变化[J].中国水运(学术版),2008,8(1):175-177.
[21] 纪晓玲.宁夏雷暴天气气候和环流特征及典型过程分析[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.
[22] 刘正源,姜苏,曹洪亮.呼和浩特市雷暴气候特征及其变化分析[J].江西农业学报,2013,25(2):79-82.
[23] WU Z H,HUANG N E.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assited data analysis method [J].Advances in adaptive data analysis,2009,1(1):1-41.