三峡库区地质灾害类型和灾害机理研究
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摘要
为了全面分析三峡库区地质灾害类型和灾害机理,需要对三峡库区地质灾害发育度和潜势度进行研究,得到影响二者的基础因子和影响因子,并得到二者的表达式,在此基础上使用Logistic回归模型构建地质灾害预警模型,实现库区地质灾害有效预警。实验结果证明,使用地质灾害预警模型得到三峡库区不同地质灾害发生次数分别为38次、39次、7次和13次,地震位移数据和实际数据误差低于2 mm,且有效分析了滑坡地质灾害的加速度变化规律,说明该模型能够详细分析三峡库区地质灾害类型和灾害机理,并准确预警地质灾害。
In order to comprehensively analyze the types and mechanisms of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, it is necessary to study the development and potential of geological hazards in the Area, get the basic factors and influencing factors affecting them, and get their expressions. On this basis, we construct the early warning model of geological hazards by using logistic regression model to realize effective early warning of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The experimental results show that the occurrence times of different geological hazards in the Three Gorges reservoir area are 38, 39, 7 and 13 respectively by using the geological hazard early warning model. The error of seismic displacement data and actual data is less than 2 mm. The acceleration variation law of landslide geological hazards is effectively analyzed. It shows that the model can analyze the types and mechanism of geological hazards in detail and give accurate early warn geological disasters.
In order to comprehensively analyze the types and mechanisms of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, it is necessary to study the development and potential of geological hazards in the Area, get the basic factors and influencing factors affecting them, and get their expressions. On this basis, we construct the early warning model of geological hazards by using logistic regression model to realize effective early warning of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The experimental results show that the occurrence times of different geological hazards in the Three Gorges reservoir area are 38, 39, 7 and 13 respectively by using the geological hazard early warning model. The error of seismic displacement data and actual data is less than 2 mm. The acceleration variation law of landslide geological hazards is effectively analyzed. It shows that the model can analyze the types and mechanism of geological hazards in detail and give accurate early warn geological disasters.
引文
[1] 冯振, 李滨, 赵超英,等. 三峡库区山区城镇重大地质灾害监测预警示范研究[J]. 地质力学学报, 2016, 22(3):685-694.
[2] 刘广宁, 黄波林, 王世昌. 三峡库区巫峡口—独龙高陡岸坡变形破坏机理研究[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2015, 32(2):92-97.
[3] 简文星, 李世金, 陶良. 三峡库区消落带巴东组软岩抗剪强度劣化机理[J]. 地质科技情报, 2015, 34(4):170-175.
[4] 杨何, 汤明高, 叶润青,等. 三峡库区滑坡堆积体非饱和土的土——水特征研究[J]. 水利水电技术, 2017, 48(9):168-173.
[5] 卢书强, 张国栋, 易庆林,等. 三峡库区白家包阶跃型滑坡动态变形特征与机理[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2016, 14(3):144-149.
[6] 卢应发, 黄学斌, 刘德富. 推移式滑坡渐进破坏机制及稳定性分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2016, 35(2):4-4.
[7] 吉中会, 吴先华. 山洪灾害风险评估的研究进展[J]. 灾害学, 2018,33(1):162-167.
[8] 司红伟, 刘伦. 地质勘探中海量杂波数据优化检测[J]. 计算机仿真, 2015, 32(12):364-367.
[9] ZHANG G, TAN T, ZHI X U, et al. Analysis for deformation monitoring of Tanjiahe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2017, 26(3):185-192.
[10] 田丰, 张军, 冉有华,等. 甘肃陇南市泥石流灾害危险性及影响因子评价[J]. 灾害学, 2017, 32(3):197-203.
[11] 王林松, 陈超, 马险,等. 基于SRTM-DEM数据的三峡库区蓄水负荷模型及其地表重力与形变响应模拟[J]. 测绘学报, 2016, 45(10):1148-1156.
[12] LIU G N, HUANG B L, WANG S C. Deformation and failure mechanism of high steep slope in the area from Wu Gorge Entrance to Dulong of Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2015, 32(2):92-97.
[13] 吴军, 汪洪星, 谈云志,等. 软弱基底诱发湖区排土场失稳机理研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报, 2015, 37(9):84-89.
[14] WANG X, Pedrycz W, NIU R. Spatio-temporal analysis of Quaternary deposit landslides in the Three Gorges[J]. Natural Hazards, 2015, 75(3):1-21.
[15] 纪维伟, 潘鹏志, 苏方声,等. 基于裂纹体应变的深埋大理岩加、卸荷破坏机制研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2016, 37(11):3079-3088.
[2] 刘广宁, 黄波林, 王世昌. 三峡库区巫峡口—独龙高陡岸坡变形破坏机理研究[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2015, 32(2):92-97.
[3] 简文星, 李世金, 陶良. 三峡库区消落带巴东组软岩抗剪强度劣化机理[J]. 地质科技情报, 2015, 34(4):170-175.
[4] 杨何, 汤明高, 叶润青,等. 三峡库区滑坡堆积体非饱和土的土——水特征研究[J]. 水利水电技术, 2017, 48(9):168-173.
[5] 卢书强, 张国栋, 易庆林,等. 三峡库区白家包阶跃型滑坡动态变形特征与机理[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2016, 14(3):144-149.
[6] 卢应发, 黄学斌, 刘德富. 推移式滑坡渐进破坏机制及稳定性分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2016, 35(2):4-4.
[7] 吉中会, 吴先华. 山洪灾害风险评估的研究进展[J]. 灾害学, 2018,33(1):162-167.
[8] 司红伟, 刘伦. 地质勘探中海量杂波数据优化检测[J]. 计算机仿真, 2015, 32(12):364-367.
[9] ZHANG G, TAN T, ZHI X U, et al. Analysis for deformation monitoring of Tanjiahe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2017, 26(3):185-192.
[10] 田丰, 张军, 冉有华,等. 甘肃陇南市泥石流灾害危险性及影响因子评价[J]. 灾害学, 2017, 32(3):197-203.
[11] 王林松, 陈超, 马险,等. 基于SRTM-DEM数据的三峡库区蓄水负荷模型及其地表重力与形变响应模拟[J]. 测绘学报, 2016, 45(10):1148-1156.
[12] LIU G N, HUANG B L, WANG S C. Deformation and failure mechanism of high steep slope in the area from Wu Gorge Entrance to Dulong of Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2015, 32(2):92-97.
[13] 吴军, 汪洪星, 谈云志,等. 软弱基底诱发湖区排土场失稳机理研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报, 2015, 37(9):84-89.
[14] WANG X, Pedrycz W, NIU R. Spatio-temporal analysis of Quaternary deposit landslides in the Three Gorges[J]. Natural Hazards, 2015, 75(3):1-21.
[15] 纪维伟, 潘鹏志, 苏方声,等. 基于裂纹体应变的深埋大理岩加、卸荷破坏机制研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2016, 37(11):3079-3088.