森林认证驱动企业价值的系统动力学分析
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摘要
森林认证会带来环境效益、社会效益和经济效益,同时,也给企业带来很大的成本费用,因此,森林认证最终能否驱动企业价值的提升受到各种因素的影响。文章利用系统动力学的原理,分析森林认证与企业价值之间的因果关系,并建立森林认证价值驱动模型。以白河林业局为分析对象进行系统仿真,发现消费者的环保意识和消费水平会驱动企业价值提升,但当市场饱和后,企业价值提升趋缓甚至下降;政府补贴及企业对认证的投入会驱动企业价值的稳步提升;同时增加这4个变量值,会引起企业价值大幅度的提升,因此,综合考虑各个因素的相互作用对森林认证价值驱动有积极作用。
Forest certification can bring environmental benefits, social benefit and economic benefits, it also can bring great cost, Therefore, whether forest certification can eventually drive the enhancement of the enterprise value or not affected by a variety of factors. Using the principle of system dynamics,this paper analyzed the causal relationship between forest certification and enterprise value, and to establish forest certification value-driven model.Taking Baihe Forestry Bureau as the analysis object to system simulate, found that consumers' environmental awareness and the level of consumption would drive the business value to upgrade, but when the market was saturated,the business value of upgrading slowed down or even declined. Government subsidies and corporate investment in certification would drive the steady improvement of the enterprise value; while increasing the four variable value would cause a substantial enhancement of the corporate value. Therefore, considering the interaction of various factors on the value-driven forest certification would have a positive effect.
Forest certification can bring environmental benefits, social benefit and economic benefits, it also can bring great cost, Therefore, whether forest certification can eventually drive the enhancement of the enterprise value or not affected by a variety of factors. Using the principle of system dynamics,this paper analyzed the causal relationship between forest certification and enterprise value, and to establish forest certification value-driven model.Taking Baihe Forestry Bureau as the analysis object to system simulate, found that consumers' environmental awareness and the level of consumption would drive the business value to upgrade, but when the market was saturated,the business value of upgrading slowed down or even declined. Government subsidies and corporate investment in certification would drive the steady improvement of the enterprise value; while increasing the four variable value would cause a substantial enhancement of the corporate value. Therefore, considering the interaction of various factors on the value-driven forest certification would have a positive effect.
引文
Ruth Nussbaum,Markku Simula著,王虹,陆文明等译.森林认证手册[M].中国林业出版社,2010
陈雪,黄金凤.森林认证经济条件下的社会效益实现分析[J].吉林农业,2018(14):96
杜珂.森林认证市场和发展趋势[J].农村经济,2011(3):27~29
管志杰,沈杰.基于壳层结构的森林认证成本分析[J].林业经济问题,2009(3):240~243
郭淑芬,聂影.从财务分析的视角论森林认证激励补偿机制[J].林业资源管理,2010,12(6):21~26
蒋德启.中国林业企业社会责任报告研究[D].北京林业大学,2010
徐斌,陈绍志,付博.中国林业企业开展森林经营认证的动力与经济效益分析[J].林业经济问题,2014,34(1):78~83
Beatty, R·P., Ritter, J·R. Investment Banking, Reputation, and Under pricing of Initial Public Offerings[J].Journal of Financial Economics, 1986(15):213~232
Lehman, B. Earnings, Dividend Policy, and Present Value Relations:Building Blocks of Dividend Policy Invariant Cash Flows. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting. 1993(3):263~282
Peasnell, K.V. Some formal connections between economic values and yields and accounting numbers[J]. Journal of Business Finance&Ac-counting, 1982, 9(3):361~381
Preinreich,G.A. Annual survey of economic theory:the theory of depreciation[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1938(3):219~241
Milgrom, P., Roberts, J.Relying on the Information of Interested Parties[J].Rand Journal of Economics,1986(17):18~32
Stigler, G, J. Information in the Labor Market[J].Journal of Political Economy, 1962(70):49~73
陈雪,黄金凤.森林认证经济条件下的社会效益实现分析[J].吉林农业,2018(14):96
杜珂.森林认证市场和发展趋势[J].农村经济,2011(3):27~29
管志杰,沈杰.基于壳层结构的森林认证成本分析[J].林业经济问题,2009(3):240~243
郭淑芬,聂影.从财务分析的视角论森林认证激励补偿机制[J].林业资源管理,2010,12(6):21~26
蒋德启.中国林业企业社会责任报告研究[D].北京林业大学,2010
徐斌,陈绍志,付博.中国林业企业开展森林经营认证的动力与经济效益分析[J].林业经济问题,2014,34(1):78~83
Beatty, R·P., Ritter, J·R. Investment Banking, Reputation, and Under pricing of Initial Public Offerings[J].Journal of Financial Economics, 1986(15):213~232
Lehman, B. Earnings, Dividend Policy, and Present Value Relations:Building Blocks of Dividend Policy Invariant Cash Flows. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting. 1993(3):263~282
Peasnell, K.V. Some formal connections between economic values and yields and accounting numbers[J]. Journal of Business Finance&Ac-counting, 1982, 9(3):361~381
Preinreich,G.A. Annual survey of economic theory:the theory of depreciation[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1938(3):219~241
Milgrom, P., Roberts, J.Relying on the Information of Interested Parties[J].Rand Journal of Economics,1986(17):18~32
Stigler, G, J. Information in the Labor Market[J].Journal of Political Economy, 1962(70):49~73