非农就业对林地流转的影响——基于双内生视角的MV Tobit估计
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摘要
新一轮集体林权制度改革后,林地的市场交易行为并未如政策预期。为了探讨非农就业是否阻碍了林地流转,本文构建了双内生农户决策模型,并利用国家林业局对全国9省区1497个农户的固定样本连续监测数据进行实证检验。考虑到林地流转和非农就业的双内生性、以及被解释变量的数据删截性问题,采用了多方程系统Tobit模型进行回归分析。研究结果显示,非农就业对林地流入具有显著的抑制作用;相反,非农就业对林地流出的作用并不显著,这与林地流转契约的长期性和林地生计保障功能密切相关;无论是对流入还是流出,交易成本都是一个重要的负向因素,且在1%的统计水平上显著;其他显著影响林地流转的因素还包括工资水平、林木价格、林地面积、林地细碎化程度、家庭人口数等,这些因素对林地流入和流出的影响方向相反。上述发现有助于理解林地流转不活跃的经济机理,为后续配套改革提供决策参考。
After the new round of collective forest tenure reform, the forestland transactions seem still inactive in China, which is not as expected as policymakers. Under this background, it is crucial to understand what are the factors that determine farmers' behavior of forestland transfer.To investigate whether off-farm employment hinders forestland transfer, we established a household decision model, where the forestland transfer decision and off-farm employment decision are endogenous. Then the empirical analysis is performed based on a household survey dataset, which involves 1497 households from 9 provinces in China. This dataset is collected by the State Forestry Administration and is ranged from 2003 to 2013. Given the endogeneity of farmers' decision-making process, the off-farm employment should be regarded as an endogenous variable.Meanwhile, the fact that the majority of households didn't transfer their forestland implies that the explained variable is censored. Hence, the multivariate Tobit approach is applied to deal with the endogeneity and censoring issues. The results show that off-farm employment has a significantly negative effect on forestland rent-in, while the effect on rent-out is insignificant. This insignificance might be owing to the long-period feature of forestland transfer contracts and the role of forestland on household livelihood. For rural farmers, forestlands are considered to be a"safety net"once they lose their employments in off-farm sector. Moreover, transaction cost is an important factor that influence the decision of forestland transfer. That is, the variable of transaction cost imposes a negative effect on both rent-in and rent-out at the 1% statistical level.Besides, off-farm wage rate, timber prices, forestland area, forestland fragmentation, and the amount of household members also have significant effects on behaviors of forestland transfer.Their effects are opposite with regard to rent-in and rent-out behaviors. These findings will facilitate policymakers to understand what factors determine forestland transfer, and will provide beneficial suggestions in the following-up reform.
After the new round of collective forest tenure reform, the forestland transactions seem still inactive in China, which is not as expected as policymakers. Under this background, it is crucial to understand what are the factors that determine farmers' behavior of forestland transfer.To investigate whether off-farm employment hinders forestland transfer, we established a household decision model, where the forestland transfer decision and off-farm employment decision are endogenous. Then the empirical analysis is performed based on a household survey dataset, which involves 1497 households from 9 provinces in China. This dataset is collected by the State Forestry Administration and is ranged from 2003 to 2013. Given the endogeneity of farmers' decision-making process, the off-farm employment should be regarded as an endogenous variable.Meanwhile, the fact that the majority of households didn't transfer their forestland implies that the explained variable is censored. Hence, the multivariate Tobit approach is applied to deal with the endogeneity and censoring issues. The results show that off-farm employment has a significantly negative effect on forestland rent-in, while the effect on rent-out is insignificant. This insignificance might be owing to the long-period feature of forestland transfer contracts and the role of forestland on household livelihood. For rural farmers, forestlands are considered to be a"safety net"once they lose their employments in off-farm sector. Moreover, transaction cost is an important factor that influence the decision of forestland transfer. That is, the variable of transaction cost imposes a negative effect on both rent-in and rent-out at the 1% statistical level.Besides, off-farm wage rate, timber prices, forestland area, forestland fragmentation, and the amount of household members also have significant effects on behaviors of forestland transfer.Their effects are opposite with regard to rent-in and rent-out behaviors. These findings will facilitate policymakers to understand what factors determine forestland transfer, and will provide beneficial suggestions in the following-up reform.
引文
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1)进行倒数化处理的原因是,取倒数之后的指标与交易成本在逻辑上是一致的,即倒数指标越大,交易成本越高;反之亦然。将倒数进一步进行对数化处理仅仅改变了估计值的符号,并不影响估计值的大小,即ln(1/x)=-ln(x)。
[2]贺东航,朱冬亮.关于集体林权制度改革若干重大问题的思考[J].经济社会体制比较,2009,(2):21-28.[He D H,Zhu D L.Thinking on some important issues in the reform of collective forest property right system[J].Comparative Economic and Social Systems,2009,(2):21-28.]
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1)进行倒数化处理的原因是,取倒数之后的指标与交易成本在逻辑上是一致的,即倒数指标越大,交易成本越高;反之亦然。将倒数进一步进行对数化处理仅仅改变了估计值的符号,并不影响估计值的大小,即ln(1/x)=-ln(x)。