基于区间二型梯形模糊集的应急物资储备动态协同决策模型
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摘要
重大灾害下应急物资储备决策是阻止突发灾难蔓延的有效手段之一。针对救灾信息具备不确定性与复杂性特点,构建基于区间二型梯形模糊集的应急物资储备动态协同决策模型,并给出应急物资储备策略。利用区间二型模糊集理论的决策方案并结合比例分析法(COPRAS),构建常态环境下应急物资供应商选择的群决策模型,解决不相容群决策属性之间的冲突问题;进而,充分考虑"救灾阶段性动态时间因素"对储备决策的影响,构建动态救灾环境下应急物资储备结构模糊优化模型,实现常态决策与非常态应急决策之间的动态协同;最后,以2012年云南丽江"6.14"突发特大山洪灾害为实例进行数值分析,验证该动态协同决策模型的合理性与可行性,能有效解决动态救灾环境下应急物资储备结构优化问题。
Emergency material reserves decision-making under major disasters is one of the effective measures to prevent the spread of a sudden disasters.A dynamic collaborative decision-making model of emergency material reserves based on interval two-type trapezoidal fuzzy sets is constructed according to the uncertainty and complexity of disaster relief information in this paper,and the emergency material reserve strategy is given on this basis.A group decision model of emergency material supplier selection under normal environment is constructed by using proportional analysis method(COPRAS) and decision-making program of interval-type fuzzy set theory to solve the problem of conflict between inconsistent decision attributes;and then,a fuzzy optimization model of emergency material reserve structure is constructed to realize the dynamic coordination between normal decision and abnormal emergency decision by considering the influence of "The Dynamic Time Factors of Disaster Relief"on reserve decision;Finally,a case study of the "6.14" sudden flood disaster in Lijiang,Yunnan in 2012 shows that the dynamic collaborative decision-making model is reasonable and feasible,and can effectively solve the structure optimization problem of emergency material reserve under dynamic disaster relief environment.
Emergency material reserves decision-making under major disasters is one of the effective measures to prevent the spread of a sudden disasters.A dynamic collaborative decision-making model of emergency material reserves based on interval two-type trapezoidal fuzzy sets is constructed according to the uncertainty and complexity of disaster relief information in this paper,and the emergency material reserve strategy is given on this basis.A group decision model of emergency material supplier selection under normal environment is constructed by using proportional analysis method(COPRAS) and decision-making program of interval-type fuzzy set theory to solve the problem of conflict between inconsistent decision attributes;and then,a fuzzy optimization model of emergency material reserve structure is constructed to realize the dynamic coordination between normal decision and abnormal emergency decision by considering the influence of "The Dynamic Time Factors of Disaster Relief"on reserve decision;Finally,a case study of the "6.14" sudden flood disaster in Lijiang,Yunnan in 2012 shows that the dynamic collaborative decision-making model is reasonable and feasible,and can effectively solve the structure optimization problem of emergency material reserve under dynamic disaster relief environment.
引文
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[21]Chen S M,Lee L W.Fuzzy multiple attributes group decision making based on the interval type-2 TOPSIS method[J].Expert Syst Appl,2010,37(4):2790-2798.
[22]Lu H W,Huang G H,He L.Development of an interval-valued fuzzy linear-programming method based on infiniteα-cuts for water resources management[J].Environ Model Softw,2013,25(3):354-361.
[23]Vahdani B,Jabbari A,Roshanaei V,Zandieh M.Extension of the ELECTRE method for decision-making problems with interval weights and data[J].Int J Adv Manuf Technol,2010,50(5-8):793-800.
[24]Vahdani B,Hadipour H.Extension of the ELECTRE method based on interval-valued fuzzy sets[J].Soft Comput,2011,15(3):569-579.
[25]Chen T Y.Multiple criteria group decision-making with generalized interval-valued fuzzy numbers based on signed distances and incomplete weights[J].Appl Math Model,2012,36(7):3029-3052.
[26]Razavi Hajiagha S H,Hashemi S S,Zavadskas E K.A complex proportional assessment method for group decision making in an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment[J].Technol Econ Dev Econ,2013,19(1):22-37.
[2]Hanhani A,Oh S C.Formulation and solution of a mufticommodity,mufti-modal network flow model for disaster relief operations[J].Transport ion Research Part A,1996,30(3):231-250.
[3]Tzeng G H,Cheng H J,Huang T D.Mulch-objective optimal planning for designing relief delivery systems[J].Transport ion Research Part E,2007,43(6):673-686.
[4]Sheu J B.Dynamic relief-demand management for emergency logistics operations under large-scale disasters[J].Transport ion Research Part E,2010,46(1):1-17.
[5]Economou A,Fakinos D.A continuous time markov chain under the influence of a regulating point process and applications in stochastic models with catastrophes[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,149(3):65-640.
[6]朱佳翔,谭清美.基于模糊决策模型的高速公路环境风险评价[J].运筹与管理,2012,21(4):153-160.
[7]朱佳翔,江涛涛,钟昌宝,郭军华.响应紧急救援的应急供应链物流配送模型[J].系统工程,2013,31(7):44-51.
[8]刘浪,黄有方,逢金辉.加权网络应急物资储备点选址方法[J].北京理工大学学报,2011,32(2):244-252.
[9]田军,马文正,汪应洛.应急物资配送动态调度的粒子群算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,(5):898-906.
[10]郞文帅,寇纲,彭怡.面向突发事件的模糊多目标应急决策方法[J].系统工程理论实践,2012,6:1298-1304.
[11]刘春林,施建军,李春雨.模糊应急系统组合优化方案选择问题的研究[J].管理工程学报,2002,16(2):25-28.
[12]Valinsky D A.Detennination of the optimura location 0f fire-fighting uints,in new york city[J].Journals of the Operations Research Society of America,1995,3(4):494-512.
[13]Cook K,Stephenson R.Lesson in logistics from somalia[J].Disaster,1984,8:57-66.
[14]朱佳翔,谭清美.非常规突发事件下的高速公路环境风险评价[J].统计与决策,2011,348(24):41-45.
[15]孟参,王长琼.应急物流系统运作流程分析及其管理[J].物流科技,2006,9:15-17.
[16]章竟,刘宗熹.从汶川地震看我国地震灾害应急物流体系的建设[J].物流技术,2008,27(10):33-36.
[17]Zadeh L A.The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning[J].Inf Sci,1975,8(3):199-249.
[18]Mendel J M,John R I,Feilong L Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems made simple[J].IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst,2006,14(6):808-821.
[19]Mendel J M.On answering the question“Where do I start in order to solve a new problem involving interval type-2 fuzzy sets?”[J].Inf Sci,2009,179(19):3418-3431.
[20]Bortolan G,Degani R.A review of some methods for ranking fuzzy subsets[J].Fuzzy Sets Syst,1985,15(1):1-19.
[21]Chen S M,Lee L W.Fuzzy multiple attributes group decision making based on the interval type-2 TOPSIS method[J].Expert Syst Appl,2010,37(4):2790-2798.
[22]Lu H W,Huang G H,He L.Development of an interval-valued fuzzy linear-programming method based on infiniteα-cuts for water resources management[J].Environ Model Softw,2013,25(3):354-361.
[23]Vahdani B,Jabbari A,Roshanaei V,Zandieh M.Extension of the ELECTRE method for decision-making problems with interval weights and data[J].Int J Adv Manuf Technol,2010,50(5-8):793-800.
[24]Vahdani B,Hadipour H.Extension of the ELECTRE method based on interval-valued fuzzy sets[J].Soft Comput,2011,15(3):569-579.
[25]Chen T Y.Multiple criteria group decision-making with generalized interval-valued fuzzy numbers based on signed distances and incomplete weights[J].Appl Math Model,2012,36(7):3029-3052.
[26]Razavi Hajiagha S H,Hashemi S S,Zavadskas E K.A complex proportional assessment method for group decision making in an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment[J].Technol Econ Dev Econ,2013,19(1):22-37.