环形交叉口内部运行时间可靠度研究
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摘要
基于行程时间可靠性指标对环形交叉口内部区域的交通运行态势进行了分析。从路径、入口和系统三个层面依次建立了针对环形交叉口的运行时间可靠度模型,借助VISSIM微观仿真平台对模型适用性进行了验证分析。在此基础上,对同一入口相邻路径和相邻入口相邻路径之间的可靠度进行了相关性分析,并得到了其拟合方程。分别以车道数、流量、左转比例、大车比例等为变量,对不同类型的运行时间可靠性进行了敏感性分析,验证了所建模型的适用性,丰富和完善了环形交叉口的指标评价体系。
Based on the travel time reliability, this paper analyzes the traffic states in the inside area of the roundabout. The travel time reliability model is established from three aspects: route path, entrance and system, and the practicability of the model is verified by the VISSIM simulation. On this basis, the correlation analysis is made on between the adjacent paths of the same entrance and adjacent paths of the adjacent entrances, and the fitting equations are obtained. Taking the number of lanes, traffic volumes,proportion of left-turns and the rate of heavy vehicles as variables, a sensitivity analysis of different types of travel time reliability is conducted, which verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The results enrich the evaluation index system of roundabout.
Based on the travel time reliability, this paper analyzes the traffic states in the inside area of the roundabout. The travel time reliability model is established from three aspects: route path, entrance and system, and the practicability of the model is verified by the VISSIM simulation. On this basis, the correlation analysis is made on between the adjacent paths of the same entrance and adjacent paths of the adjacent entrances, and the fitting equations are obtained. Taking the number of lanes, traffic volumes,proportion of left-turns and the rate of heavy vehicles as variables, a sensitivity analysis of different types of travel time reliability is conducted, which verifies the applicability of the proposed model. The results enrich the evaluation index system of roundabout.
引文
[1]王殿海,祁宏生,徐程.交通可靠性研究综述[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2010,10(5):12-21.Wang Dianhai,Qi Hongsheng,Xu Cheng.Reviewing traffic reliability research[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2010,10(5):12-21.
[2]许良,高自友.基于路段能力可靠性的城市交通网络设计[J].中国公路学报,2006,19(2):86-90.Xu Liang,Gao Ziyou.Urban transport network design based on link capacity reliability[J].China Journal of Highway&Transport,2006,19(2):86-90.
[3]许良,高自友.基于出行时间可靠性的城市交通网络设计[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(2):494-498.Xu Liang,Gao Ziyou.Urban transportation network design based on travel time reliability[J].Journal of System Simulation,2008,20(2):494-498.
[4]刘勇,项莉,谢军,等.城市路网可靠性计算方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2007,7(3):95-99.Liu Yong,Xiang Li,Xie Jun,et al.Reliability computation method of urban road network[J].Journal of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,2007,7(3):95-99.
[5]张勇,白玉.基于行程时间可靠度的有限离散路网优化[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(5):94-99.Zhang Yong,Bai Yu.Optimization of finite discrete road network based on travel time reliability[J].China Journal of Highway&Transport,2009,22(5):94-99.
[6]张勇,白玉,杨晓光.城市道路网络的行程时间可靠性[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(8):171-176.Zhang Yong,Bai Yu,Yang Xiaoguang.Travel time reliability in urban arterial networks[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2009,29(8):171-176.
[7]郭志勇,王炜.基于行程时间可靠度的区域交通控制系统评价方法[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,40(4):848-851.Guo Zhiyong,Wang Wei.Area traffic control system evaluation method based on travel time reliability[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2010,40(4):848-851.
[8]陈富坚,柳本民,郭忠印,等.基于贝叶斯分析的道路交通系统可靠性模型[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(2):220-225.Chen Fujian,Liu Benmin,Guo Zhongyin,et al.Reliability models of road traffic systems based on Bayesian analysis[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science Edition),2011,39(2):220-225.
[9]姜桂艳,牛世峰,常安德.基于检测数据的路网交通运行可靠性分析[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2011,41(5):1216-1221.Jiang Guiyan,Niu Shifeng,Chang Ande.Road network traffic operation reliability analysis based on detected data[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2011,41(5):1216-1221.
[10]林徐勋,隽志才,倪安宁,等.城市道路交通系统可靠性研究综述[J].计算机应用研究,2012,29(8):2817-2820.Lin Xuxun,Juan Zhicai,Ni Anning.Review of reliability of urban network transportation system[J].Application Research of Computers,2012,29(8):2817-2820.
[11]黄中祥,况爱武,范文婷,等.出行信息对道路网络出行时间可靠性的影响[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(6):93-99.Huang Zhongxiang,Kuang Aiwu,Fan Wenting,et al.Impact of traveler information on road network travel time reliability[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2012,12(6):93-99.
[12]严亚丹,过秀成,李岩,等.基于车辆自动定位系统数据的地面公共交通运行时间可靠性分析[J].东南大学学报(英文版),2012,28(1):100-105.Yan Yadan,Guo Xiucheng,Li Yan,et al.Bus transit travel time reliability evaluation based on automatic vehicle location data[J].Journal of Southeast University(English Edition),2012,28(1):100-105.
[13]臧晓冬.干线公路冰雪环境下交通运行可靠度研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(4):167-171.Zang Xiaodong.Reliability research of traffic operation for artery network under snow conditions[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2012,12(4):167-171.
[14]陈玲娟,刘海旭,蒲云.交通事故持续期内行程时间的可靠性研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2013,48(2):376-382.Chen Lingjuan,Liu Haixu,Pu Yun.Travel time reliability during incident duration time[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2013,48(2):376-382.
[15]王卓,刁朋娣,董宏辉,等.城市道路网络可靠度及其敏感度研究[J].中国公路学报,2013,26(2):134-139.Wang Zhuo,Diao Pengdi,Dong Honghui,et al.Research on reliability and sensitivity of urban road network[J].China Journal of Highway&Transport,2013,26(2):134-139.
[16]张玺,刘海旭,蒲云.随机供给下的行程时间动态可靠性[J].系统工程,2013,31(3):105-109.Zhang Xi,Liu Haixu,Pu Yun.Dynamic reliability of travel time in stochastic supply[J].Systems Engineering,2013,31(3):105-109.
[17]李长城,文涛,刘小明,等.基于高速公路收费数据的行程时间可靠性模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2014,31(12):110-115.Li Changcheng,Wen Tao,Liu Xiaoming,et al.Study on reliability model of travel time based on expressway toll data[J].Journal of Highway&Transportation Research&Development,2014,31(12):110-115.
[18]陶骏杰,张勇.多方式交通网络的时间可靠性分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(2):216-222.Tao Junjie,Zhang Yong.Time reliability analysis of multi-modal transportation networks[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2015,15(2):216-222.
[19]杜春燕,马洪伟,周溪召.基于Edgeworth级数的行程时间可靠性的计算与实证[J].公路交通科技,2015,32(7):127-133.Du Chunyan,Ma Hongwei,Zhou Xizhao.Calculation and empirical analysis of travel time reliability based on edgeworth series[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2015,32(7):127-133.
[20]王殿海,汤月华,陈茜,等.基于GPS数据的公交站点区间行程时间可靠性影响因素[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,45(2):404-412.Wang Dianhai,Tang Yuehua,Chen Qian,et al.Influence factors of GPS-based bus travel time reliability between adjacent bus stations[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2015,45(2):404-412.
[21]林徐勋,倪安宁,张春勤.基于随机松弛时间的行程时间可靠性计算模型[J].科学技术与工程,2015,15(8):127-133.Lin Xuxun,Ni Anning,Zhang Chunqin.Travel time reliability calculation model based on traffic flow dynamics theory considering stochastic relaxation time[J].Science Technology&Engineering,2015,15(8):127-133.
[22]杨聚芬,姜桂艳,马明辉.基于因子定理的路网交通运行可靠性在线分析[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2015,45(1):68-74.Yang Jufen,Jiang Guiyan,Ma Minghui.Online analysis of traffic operating reliability of road network based on factor theorem[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2015,45(1):68-74.
[23]李小静,刘林忠,谢宝,等.基于云理论的三时估计法计算行程时间可靠度[J].北京工业大学学报,2015(2):262-268.Li Xiaojing,Liu Linzhong,Xie Bao,et al.Three-time estimation method based on cloud theory to calculate travel time reliability[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2015,41(2):262-268.
[24]徐光明,王英姿,史峰,等.基于出行时间可靠性的支路网络均衡分析[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2015,45(3):755-760.Xu Guangming,Wang Yingzi,Shi Feng,et al.Traffic flow equilibrium analysis of branch network based on travel time reliability[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2015,45(3):755-760.
[25]李伟,周菁楠,周峰,等.基于结构可靠性算法的停车换乘行程时间可靠性计算[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,46(1):226-230.Li Wei,Zhou Jingnan,Zhou Feng,et al.Calculation of travel time reliability of park-and-ride based on structural reliability algorithm[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2016,46(1):226-230.
[26]何娇娇,张勇.行程时间可靠性及其价值估计分析[J].系统工程,2016,34(7):110-117.He Jiaojiao,Zhang Yong.Analysis on travel time reliability and its value[J].Systems Engineering,2016,34(7):110-117.
[27]Clark S,Watling D.Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological(S0191-2615),2005,39(2):119-140.
[28]Mauro R.Evaluation of Roundabout Reliability[M]//Calculation of Roundabouts.2010:139-156.
[29]Taylor M A P,Susilawati.Modelling Travel Time Reliability with the Burr Distribution[J].ProcediaSocial and Behavioral Sciences(S1877-0428),2012,54(2290):75-83.
[30]Yang S,Malik A,Wu Y J.Travel Time Reliability Using the Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler Algorithm and Kernel Density Estimation[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board(S0361-1981),2014,2442(1):85-95.
[2]许良,高自友.基于路段能力可靠性的城市交通网络设计[J].中国公路学报,2006,19(2):86-90.Xu Liang,Gao Ziyou.Urban transport network design based on link capacity reliability[J].China Journal of Highway&Transport,2006,19(2):86-90.
[3]许良,高自友.基于出行时间可靠性的城市交通网络设计[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(2):494-498.Xu Liang,Gao Ziyou.Urban transportation network design based on travel time reliability[J].Journal of System Simulation,2008,20(2):494-498.
[4]刘勇,项莉,谢军,等.城市路网可靠性计算方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2007,7(3):95-99.Liu Yong,Xiang Li,Xie Jun,et al.Reliability computation method of urban road network[J].Journal of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,2007,7(3):95-99.
[5]张勇,白玉.基于行程时间可靠度的有限离散路网优化[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(5):94-99.Zhang Yong,Bai Yu.Optimization of finite discrete road network based on travel time reliability[J].China Journal of Highway&Transport,2009,22(5):94-99.
[6]张勇,白玉,杨晓光.城市道路网络的行程时间可靠性[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(8):171-176.Zhang Yong,Bai Yu,Yang Xiaoguang.Travel time reliability in urban arterial networks[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2009,29(8):171-176.
[7]郭志勇,王炜.基于行程时间可靠度的区域交通控制系统评价方法[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,40(4):848-851.Guo Zhiyong,Wang Wei.Area traffic control system evaluation method based on travel time reliability[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2010,40(4):848-851.
[8]陈富坚,柳本民,郭忠印,等.基于贝叶斯分析的道路交通系统可靠性模型[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(2):220-225.Chen Fujian,Liu Benmin,Guo Zhongyin,et al.Reliability models of road traffic systems based on Bayesian analysis[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science Edition),2011,39(2):220-225.
[9]姜桂艳,牛世峰,常安德.基于检测数据的路网交通运行可靠性分析[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2011,41(5):1216-1221.Jiang Guiyan,Niu Shifeng,Chang Ande.Road network traffic operation reliability analysis based on detected data[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2011,41(5):1216-1221.
[10]林徐勋,隽志才,倪安宁,等.城市道路交通系统可靠性研究综述[J].计算机应用研究,2012,29(8):2817-2820.Lin Xuxun,Juan Zhicai,Ni Anning.Review of reliability of urban network transportation system[J].Application Research of Computers,2012,29(8):2817-2820.
[11]黄中祥,况爱武,范文婷,等.出行信息对道路网络出行时间可靠性的影响[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(6):93-99.Huang Zhongxiang,Kuang Aiwu,Fan Wenting,et al.Impact of traveler information on road network travel time reliability[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2012,12(6):93-99.
[12]严亚丹,过秀成,李岩,等.基于车辆自动定位系统数据的地面公共交通运行时间可靠性分析[J].东南大学学报(英文版),2012,28(1):100-105.Yan Yadan,Guo Xiucheng,Li Yan,et al.Bus transit travel time reliability evaluation based on automatic vehicle location data[J].Journal of Southeast University(English Edition),2012,28(1):100-105.
[13]臧晓冬.干线公路冰雪环境下交通运行可靠度研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(4):167-171.Zang Xiaodong.Reliability research of traffic operation for artery network under snow conditions[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2012,12(4):167-171.
[14]陈玲娟,刘海旭,蒲云.交通事故持续期内行程时间的可靠性研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2013,48(2):376-382.Chen Lingjuan,Liu Haixu,Pu Yun.Travel time reliability during incident duration time[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2013,48(2):376-382.
[15]王卓,刁朋娣,董宏辉,等.城市道路网络可靠度及其敏感度研究[J].中国公路学报,2013,26(2):134-139.Wang Zhuo,Diao Pengdi,Dong Honghui,et al.Research on reliability and sensitivity of urban road network[J].China Journal of Highway&Transport,2013,26(2):134-139.
[16]张玺,刘海旭,蒲云.随机供给下的行程时间动态可靠性[J].系统工程,2013,31(3):105-109.Zhang Xi,Liu Haixu,Pu Yun.Dynamic reliability of travel time in stochastic supply[J].Systems Engineering,2013,31(3):105-109.
[17]李长城,文涛,刘小明,等.基于高速公路收费数据的行程时间可靠性模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2014,31(12):110-115.Li Changcheng,Wen Tao,Liu Xiaoming,et al.Study on reliability model of travel time based on expressway toll data[J].Journal of Highway&Transportation Research&Development,2014,31(12):110-115.
[18]陶骏杰,张勇.多方式交通网络的时间可靠性分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(2):216-222.Tao Junjie,Zhang Yong.Time reliability analysis of multi-modal transportation networks[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2015,15(2):216-222.
[19]杜春燕,马洪伟,周溪召.基于Edgeworth级数的行程时间可靠性的计算与实证[J].公路交通科技,2015,32(7):127-133.Du Chunyan,Ma Hongwei,Zhou Xizhao.Calculation and empirical analysis of travel time reliability based on edgeworth series[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2015,32(7):127-133.
[20]王殿海,汤月华,陈茜,等.基于GPS数据的公交站点区间行程时间可靠性影响因素[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,45(2):404-412.Wang Dianhai,Tang Yuehua,Chen Qian,et al.Influence factors of GPS-based bus travel time reliability between adjacent bus stations[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2015,45(2):404-412.
[21]林徐勋,倪安宁,张春勤.基于随机松弛时间的行程时间可靠性计算模型[J].科学技术与工程,2015,15(8):127-133.Lin Xuxun,Ni Anning,Zhang Chunqin.Travel time reliability calculation model based on traffic flow dynamics theory considering stochastic relaxation time[J].Science Technology&Engineering,2015,15(8):127-133.
[22]杨聚芬,姜桂艳,马明辉.基于因子定理的路网交通运行可靠性在线分析[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2015,45(1):68-74.Yang Jufen,Jiang Guiyan,Ma Minghui.Online analysis of traffic operating reliability of road network based on factor theorem[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2015,45(1):68-74.
[23]李小静,刘林忠,谢宝,等.基于云理论的三时估计法计算行程时间可靠度[J].北京工业大学学报,2015(2):262-268.Li Xiaojing,Liu Linzhong,Xie Bao,et al.Three-time estimation method based on cloud theory to calculate travel time reliability[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,2015,41(2):262-268.
[24]徐光明,王英姿,史峰,等.基于出行时间可靠性的支路网络均衡分析[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2015,45(3):755-760.Xu Guangming,Wang Yingzi,Shi Feng,et al.Traffic flow equilibrium analysis of branch network based on travel time reliability[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2015,45(3):755-760.
[25]李伟,周菁楠,周峰,等.基于结构可靠性算法的停车换乘行程时间可靠性计算[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,46(1):226-230.Li Wei,Zhou Jingnan,Zhou Feng,et al.Calculation of travel time reliability of park-and-ride based on structural reliability algorithm[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2016,46(1):226-230.
[26]何娇娇,张勇.行程时间可靠性及其价值估计分析[J].系统工程,2016,34(7):110-117.He Jiaojiao,Zhang Yong.Analysis on travel time reliability and its value[J].Systems Engineering,2016,34(7):110-117.
[27]Clark S,Watling D.Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological(S0191-2615),2005,39(2):119-140.
[28]Mauro R.Evaluation of Roundabout Reliability[M]//Calculation of Roundabouts.2010:139-156.
[29]Taylor M A P,Susilawati.Modelling Travel Time Reliability with the Burr Distribution[J].ProcediaSocial and Behavioral Sciences(S1877-0428),2012,54(2290):75-83.
[30]Yang S,Malik A,Wu Y J.Travel Time Reliability Using the Hasofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler Algorithm and Kernel Density Estimation[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board(S0361-1981),2014,2442(1):85-95.