消费示范效应下消费信贷对消费行为区域差异性影响研究
|
摘要
本文使用省级居民消费支出、传统消费金融、新兴互联网消费金融等分类面板季度数据,结合各地区不同经济水平下消费示范效应特性,建立动态跨期消费模型,利用"渐进有效非参数协方差矩阵估计方法"研究消费信贷对居民消费行为区域差异性影响。研究发现:(1)不同经济发展水平下消费示范效应有很大差别,经济越发达的地区消费示范效应越显著;(2)不确定性储蓄动机会抑制居民的消费支出,经济发达地区不确定性储蓄动机对消费支出的抑制作用更显著;(3)传统消费金融与互联网消费金融均对消费均具有促进作用,在经济发达地区传统消费金融占据主导地位,对消费的拉动效果更突出;相比之下互联网消费金融在经济相对落后的地区对拉动消费的边际效应更明显。
Based on demonstration effect of consumption in different economy-income level,using the classification of panel quarterly data,this paper establishes dynamic inter-temporal consumption model to study regional difference of the impact of consumer credit on consumption behavior through "progressive effective nonparametric covariance matrix estimation method".It is concluded that demonstration effect and the influence of consumer credit on consumer behavior vary greatly in different economy-income level.Consumption demonstration effect is more significant in the developed region,in which the uncertain savings motivation has a more significant inhibitory effect on consumption expenditure.Furthermore,both traditional consumption finance and Internet consumption finance have a promoting effect on consumption.Traditional consumption finance occupies a dominant position and has a more prominent driving effect on consumption in economically developed regions;By contrast,Internet consumption finance has more obvious marginal effect on consumption promotion in economically backward regions.
Based on demonstration effect of consumption in different economy-income level,using the classification of panel quarterly data,this paper establishes dynamic inter-temporal consumption model to study regional difference of the impact of consumer credit on consumption behavior through "progressive effective nonparametric covariance matrix estimation method".It is concluded that demonstration effect and the influence of consumer credit on consumer behavior vary greatly in different economy-income level.Consumption demonstration effect is more significant in the developed region,in which the uncertain savings motivation has a more significant inhibitory effect on consumption expenditure.Furthermore,both traditional consumption finance and Internet consumption finance have a promoting effect on consumption.Traditional consumption finance occupies a dominant position and has a more prominent driving effect on consumption in economically developed regions;By contrast,Internet consumption finance has more obvious marginal effect on consumption promotion in economically backward regions.
引文
[1]Bacchetta,P.,Gerlach,S.Consumption and credit constraints:International evidence[J].Cepr Discussion Papers,1997,40(40):207-238.
[2]Beaton,k.Credit constraints and consumer spending[J].Bank of Canada Working Paper,2009.
[3]蔡浩仪,徐忠.消费信贷、信用分配与中国经济发展[J].金融研究,2005(09):63-75.
[4]林晓楠.消费信贷对消费需求的影响效应分析[J].财贸经济,2006(11):27-31+96.
[5]李红军.我国居民消费行为的消费信贷效应检验与分析[J].消费经济,2013,29(04):14-17.
[6]Jappelli,T.,Pagano,M.Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections:An International Comparison[J].Cepr Discussion Papers,2011,79(5):1088-1105.
[7]Deaton,A.Understanding Consumption[M].Clarendon Press,1992:214-242.
[8]吴龙龙.消费信贷的消费挤出效应解析[J].消费经济,2010,26(01):57-61.
[9]Copelman,M.The Role of Credit in Post-Stabilization Consumption Booms[J].International Finance Discussion Papers,1996.
[10]Ludvigson,S.,Steindel,C.How Important is the Stock Market Effect on Consumption?-Federal Reserve Bank of New York[J].Research Paper,1999,5(July):29-51.
[11]王勇.通过发展消费金融扩大居民消费需求[J].经济学动态2012(08):75-78.
[12]申朴,刘康兵.中国城镇居民消费行为过度敏感性的经验分析:兼论不确定性、流动性约束与利率[J].世界经济,2003(01):61-66.
[13]李燕桥,臧旭恒.消费信贷影响我国城镇居民消费行为的作用渠道及检验---基于2004~2009年省际面板数据的经验分析[J].经济学动态,2013(01):20-31.
[14]韩立岩,杜春越.城镇家庭消费金融效应的地区差异研究[J].经济研究,2011,46(S1):30-42.
[15]郭庆,刘彤彤.P2P网贷对中国城乡居民消费的多重影响效应---基于省际动态面板模型的分析[J].经济体制改革,2018(02):49-56.
[16]Hall,R.E.Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis:Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1978,86(6):971-987.
[17]Duesenberry,J.S.Income,saving and the theory of consumer behavior[M].Harvard University Press,1959.
[18]Beck,N.,Katz,J.N.What To Do(and Not to Do)with TimeSeries Cross-Section Data[J].American Political Science Review,1995,89(3):634-647.
[19]Driscoll,J.C.,Kraay,A.C.Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,80(4):549-560.
[2]Beaton,k.Credit constraints and consumer spending[J].Bank of Canada Working Paper,2009.
[3]蔡浩仪,徐忠.消费信贷、信用分配与中国经济发展[J].金融研究,2005(09):63-75.
[4]林晓楠.消费信贷对消费需求的影响效应分析[J].财贸经济,2006(11):27-31+96.
[5]李红军.我国居民消费行为的消费信贷效应检验与分析[J].消费经济,2013,29(04):14-17.
[6]Jappelli,T.,Pagano,M.Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections:An International Comparison[J].Cepr Discussion Papers,2011,79(5):1088-1105.
[7]Deaton,A.Understanding Consumption[M].Clarendon Press,1992:214-242.
[8]吴龙龙.消费信贷的消费挤出效应解析[J].消费经济,2010,26(01):57-61.
[9]Copelman,M.The Role of Credit in Post-Stabilization Consumption Booms[J].International Finance Discussion Papers,1996.
[10]Ludvigson,S.,Steindel,C.How Important is the Stock Market Effect on Consumption?-Federal Reserve Bank of New York[J].Research Paper,1999,5(July):29-51.
[11]王勇.通过发展消费金融扩大居民消费需求[J].经济学动态2012(08):75-78.
[12]申朴,刘康兵.中国城镇居民消费行为过度敏感性的经验分析:兼论不确定性、流动性约束与利率[J].世界经济,2003(01):61-66.
[13]李燕桥,臧旭恒.消费信贷影响我国城镇居民消费行为的作用渠道及检验---基于2004~2009年省际面板数据的经验分析[J].经济学动态,2013(01):20-31.
[14]韩立岩,杜春越.城镇家庭消费金融效应的地区差异研究[J].经济研究,2011,46(S1):30-42.
[15]郭庆,刘彤彤.P2P网贷对中国城乡居民消费的多重影响效应---基于省际动态面板模型的分析[J].经济体制改革,2018(02):49-56.
[16]Hall,R.E.Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis:Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1978,86(6):971-987.
[17]Duesenberry,J.S.Income,saving and the theory of consumer behavior[M].Harvard University Press,1959.
[18]Beck,N.,Katz,J.N.What To Do(and Not to Do)with TimeSeries Cross-Section Data[J].American Political Science Review,1995,89(3):634-647.
[19]Driscoll,J.C.,Kraay,A.C.Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1998,80(4):549-560.