摘要
本文使用省级居民消费支出、传统消费金融、新兴互联网消费金融等分类面板季度数据,结合各地区不同经济水平下消费示范效应特性,建立动态跨期消费模型,利用"渐进有效非参数协方差矩阵估计方法"研究消费信贷对居民消费行为区域差异性影响。研究发现:(1)不同经济发展水平下消费示范效应有很大差别,经济越发达的地区消费示范效应越显著;(2)不确定性储蓄动机会抑制居民的消费支出,经济发达地区不确定性储蓄动机对消费支出的抑制作用更显著;(3)传统消费金融与互联网消费金融均对消费均具有促进作用,在经济发达地区传统消费金融占据主导地位,对消费的拉动效果更突出;相比之下互联网消费金融在经济相对落后的地区对拉动消费的边际效应更明显。
Based on demonstration effect of consumption in different economy-income level,using the classification of panel quarterly data,this paper establishes dynamic inter-temporal consumption model to study regional difference of the impact of consumer credit on consumption behavior through "progressive effective nonparametric covariance matrix estimation method".It is concluded that demonstration effect and the influence of consumer credit on consumer behavior vary greatly in different economy-income level.Consumption demonstration effect is more significant in the developed region,in which the uncertain savings motivation has a more significant inhibitory effect on consumption expenditure.Furthermore,both traditional consumption finance and Internet consumption finance have a promoting effect on consumption.Traditional consumption finance occupies a dominant position and has a more prominent driving effect on consumption in economically developed regions;By contrast,Internet consumption finance has more obvious marginal effect on consumption promotion in economically backward regions.
引文
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