碳市场建设路径研究:国际经验及对中国的启示
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摘要
基于国际碳市场建设的初始决策环境,从政治诉求、决策环境、经济基础、市场根基等4个维度的32个子指标构建了碳市场建立背景与条件指标体系,据此深入挖掘了欧盟碳排放权交易体系(EU ETS)、美国区域温室气体减排行动(RGGI)、美国西部行动倡议(WCI)等国际典型碳市场建立的背景与基础条件,并归纳出各国建立不同类型碳市场的必要条件,进而判断中国建立各类碳市场所具备的条件和不足之处。研究发现:跨界联盟型碳市场建立通常具备经济联系紧密、单个地区减排成本过高和地理位置临近等3个要点;国家型碳市场建立通常考虑到了国家强制减排责任、能源结构转型需求强烈和稳固的国家立法保障等方面;地区型碳市场的建立需满足地区减排诉求强烈与国家层面排放权立法缺失等条件;行业型碳市场建立的基础条件则包括温室气体排放集中度高、行业竞争力保护、重点行业排放需求增长和行业排放数据基础稳固等4个特征。当前,中国碳市场应重点考虑行业型与跨界联盟型碳市场并行的建设模式,进一步完善碳市场监管法律体系,加快各省市排放数据清单制作,加强地方碳市场能力建设培训,尽快完善国家型碳市场建立的基本条件,进而实现温室气体减排与产业结构升级的双重目标。
Based on the development history of the typical international carbon market, this study established an evaluation index system composed of 32 sub-indicators, measured from the four dimensions of political appeal,decision-making environment, economic base, and market foundation. In depth analysis is conducted on European Emissions Trading System(EU ETS), Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI), Western Climate Initiative(WCI) etc., in order to summarize the common criteria for different types of international carbon markets and find out which type of market is most suitable for China. The establishment of a cross-border coalition-based carbon market usually considers three key points: close economic links, high cost of abatement in individual regions, and proximity of geographical locations. The establishment of national carbon markets usually takes into consideration the national mandatory emission reduction responsibilities, strong demand for energy structure transformation,and stable national legislation protection. The establishment of regional carbon markets usually includes conditions such as strong regional emission reduction requirements and lack of national legislation of emission rights. The prerequisites for the establishment of industry-based carbon markets include four characteristics: high concentration of greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions, protection of industrial competitiveness, increases in demand of key emission industries, and solid foundation for industrial emission data. Therefore, this study proposes that China's carbon market development should consider combination of industry-based and cross-border coalitionbased carbon markets, further improve the effectiveness of regulatory policy system, accelerate the collection of local GHG emission inventory data, and strengthen local capacity building so as to achieve the dual goals of GHG emission reduction and industrial restructuring and upgrading through the carbon market.
Based on the development history of the typical international carbon market, this study established an evaluation index system composed of 32 sub-indicators, measured from the four dimensions of political appeal,decision-making environment, economic base, and market foundation. In depth analysis is conducted on European Emissions Trading System(EU ETS), Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative(RGGI), Western Climate Initiative(WCI) etc., in order to summarize the common criteria for different types of international carbon markets and find out which type of market is most suitable for China. The establishment of a cross-border coalition-based carbon market usually considers three key points: close economic links, high cost of abatement in individual regions, and proximity of geographical locations. The establishment of national carbon markets usually takes into consideration the national mandatory emission reduction responsibilities, strong demand for energy structure transformation,and stable national legislation protection. The establishment of regional carbon markets usually includes conditions such as strong regional emission reduction requirements and lack of national legislation of emission rights. The prerequisites for the establishment of industry-based carbon markets include four characteristics: high concentration of greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions, protection of industrial competitiveness, increases in demand of key emission industries, and solid foundation for industrial emission data. Therefore, this study proposes that China's carbon market development should consider combination of industry-based and cross-border coalitionbased carbon markets, further improve the effectiveness of regulatory policy system, accelerate the collection of local GHG emission inventory data, and strengthen local capacity building so as to achieve the dual goals of GHG emission reduction and industrial restructuring and upgrading through the carbon market.
引文
[1]易兰,李朝鹏,杨历,等.中国7大碳交易试点发育度对比研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(2):134-140.Yi L,Li Z P,Yang L,et al.Comparative study on the development degree of China’s 7 pilot carbon markets[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2018,28(2):134-140(in Chinese)
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[4]Convery F J.Origins and development of the EU ETS[J].Environmental&Resource Economics,2009,43(3):391-412
[5]杜莉.美国气候变化政策调整的原因、影响及对策分析[J].中国软科学,2014(4):5-13.Du L.An analysis of the causes,effects,and countermeasures of the adjustment of U.S.climate change policy[J].China Soft Science,2014(4):5-13(in Chinese)
[6]Hanemann W M.How California came to pass AB 32,the global warming solutions act of 2006[R].UC Berkely CUDARE Working Paper,2007
[7]Manley B.Impact of the New Zealand emissions trading scheme on forest valuation[J].Forest Policy&Economics,2012,14(1):83-89
[8]Capros P,Manzos L.The economic effects of EU-wide industry-level emission trading to reduce greenhouse gases:results from PRIMESenergy systems model[J].Environmental Policy Collection,2000,5(1):1-19
[9]Murray B C,Maniloff P T.Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGIstates declined?An econometric attribution to economic,energy market,and policy factors[J].Energy Economics,2015,51(4):581-589
[10]Thurbon E,Kim S Y.Developmental environmentalism:explaining South Korea’s ambitious pursuit of green growth[J].Politics&Society,2015,43(2):438-452
[11]Massetti E,Tavoni M.A developing Asia emission trading scheme(Asia ETS)[J].Energy Economics,2012,34(2):S436-S443
[12]杨志,陈波.中国建立区域碳交易市场势在必行[J].学术月刊,2010(7):65-69,77.Yang Z,Chen B.China’s establishment of a regional carbon trading market is imperative[J].Academic Monthly,2010(7):65-69,77(in Chinese)
[13]隗斌贤,揭筱纹.基于国际碳交易经验的长三角区域碳交易市场构建思路与对策[J].管理世界,2012(2):175-176.Wei B X,Jie X W.Ideas and countermeasures for the construction of the regional carbon market in the Yangtze River Delta based on international experience in carbon trading[J].Management World,2012,(2):175-176(in Chinese)
[14]刘宇,蔡松锋,王毅,等.分省与区域碳市场的比较分析:基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCO2[J].财贸经济,2013(11):117-127.Liu Y,Cai S F,Wang Y,et al.Comparative analysis of provincial and regional carbon markets:based on China’s multi-regional general equilibrium model TermCO2[J].Finance and Trade Economy,2013(11):117-127(in Chinese)
[15]陈德湖,潘英超,武春友.中国二氧化碳的边际减排成本与区域差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(10):86-93.Chen D H,Pan YC,Wu C Y.Study on marginal abatement costs and regional differences of carbon dioxide in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(10):86-93(in Chinese)
[16]SongY Z,Liu T S,Li Yin,et al.Region division of China’s carbon market based on the provincial/municipal carbon intensity[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,164:1312-1323
[17]Cui L B,Fan Y,Zhu L,et al.How will the emissions trading scheme save cost for achieving China’s 2020 carbon intensity reduction target?[J].Applied Energy,2014,136(12):1043-1052
[18]Solomon S.IPCC(2007):climate change the physical science basis[C]//AGU Fall Meeting.AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts,2007:123-124
[19]张忠利.韩国碳排放交易法律及其对我国的启示[J].东北亚论坛,2016,25(5):50-62,127.Zhang Z L.Korea’s emission trading law and its enlightenment to China[J].Northeast Asian Forum,2016,25(5):50-62,127(in Chinese)
[20]蔡博峰.东京市碳排放总量控制和交易体系及对我国的启示[J].环境经济,2011(12):41-46.Cai B F.The Tokyo cap-and-trade program and its enlightenment to China[J].Environmental Economy,2011(12):41-46(in Chinese)
[21]World Bank.State and trends of the carbon market(2017)[R].Washington DC,2017
[22]吴静,王诗琪,王铮.世界主要国家气候谈判立场演变历程及未来减排目标分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(3):202-216.Wu J,Wang S Q,Wang Z.The evolution course of the world’s leading national climate negotiating position and future target analysis[J].Climate Change Research,2016,12(3):202-216(in Chinese)
[23]翁青青.气候外交话语中的隐喻和身份构建:以英国、加拿大、中国在历次气候大会上的发言为例[J].当代亚太,2013(5):139-156,160.Weng Q Q.Climate diplomacy discourse of metaphor and identity building:in Britain,Canada and China on various climate conference speech as an example[J].Contemporary Asia-Pacific,2013(5):139-156,160(in Chinese)
[24]佟德志.从混合到共和:西方政体复合论发展的历史与逻辑[J].国外理论动态,2016(9):89-97.Tong D Z.From the mixing of the republic:western polity composite theory of development of history and logic[J].The Foreign Theory of Dynamic,2016(9):89-97(in Chinese)
[25]沈丹枫.比较联邦制与单一制政体下的府际关系:以美国和中国为例[J].法制博览,2017(9):201-202.Shen D F.Comparison under the federal system and unitary regime of the house of international relations,in the United States and China,for example[J].Legal Expo,2017(9):201-202(in Chinese)
[26]IPCC.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[27]IPCC.Special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage[M].Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2005
[28]IPCC.Climate change 2007:mitigation of climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[29]ICAP.Emissions trading worldwide:status report 2017[R].Berlin:ICAP,2017
[30]World Bank.State and trends of the carbon market(2010)[R].Washington DC,2010
[31]HM Treasury.Stern review on the economics of climate change[EB/OL].2011[2018-10-22].http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_report
[32]Mary E H.California climate change initiatives leading the west and the nation[J].Natural Resources and Environment,2008,3(22):14-19
[33]唐方方.气候变化与碳交易[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012.Tang F F.Climate change and carbon trading[M].Beijing:Beijing University Press,2012(in Chinese)
[34]王毅刚.碳排放交易制度的中国道路[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2011.Wang Y G.Carbon emissions trading system of China[M].Beijing:Economic Management Press,2011(in Chinese)
[35]UNEP.Overview of the Republic of Korea’s national strategy for green growth[R].2010:15-16
(1)试点碳市场包括京、津、沪、渝、粤、鄂、深7省市试点碳市场和2016年12月22日开市的福建碳市场。
(2)www.worldbank.org/elibrary。
(3)数据来源:The World Development Indicators(WDI)2015 Database。
[2]谢富胜,程瀚,李安.全球气候治理的政治经济学分析[J].中国社会科学,2014(11):63-82,205-206.Xie F S,Cheng H,Li A.Analysis of political economy of global climate governance[J].Chinese Social Sciences,2014(11):63-82,205-206(in Chinese)
[3]Christopher M D.Renewable energy and East Asia’s new developmentalism:towards a low carbon future?[J].Pacific Review,2012,25(5):561-587
[4]Convery F J.Origins and development of the EU ETS[J].Environmental&Resource Economics,2009,43(3):391-412
[5]杜莉.美国气候变化政策调整的原因、影响及对策分析[J].中国软科学,2014(4):5-13.Du L.An analysis of the causes,effects,and countermeasures of the adjustment of U.S.climate change policy[J].China Soft Science,2014(4):5-13(in Chinese)
[6]Hanemann W M.How California came to pass AB 32,the global warming solutions act of 2006[R].UC Berkely CUDARE Working Paper,2007
[7]Manley B.Impact of the New Zealand emissions trading scheme on forest valuation[J].Forest Policy&Economics,2012,14(1):83-89
[8]Capros P,Manzos L.The economic effects of EU-wide industry-level emission trading to reduce greenhouse gases:results from PRIMESenergy systems model[J].Environmental Policy Collection,2000,5(1):1-19
[9]Murray B C,Maniloff P T.Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGIstates declined?An econometric attribution to economic,energy market,and policy factors[J].Energy Economics,2015,51(4):581-589
[10]Thurbon E,Kim S Y.Developmental environmentalism:explaining South Korea’s ambitious pursuit of green growth[J].Politics&Society,2015,43(2):438-452
[11]Massetti E,Tavoni M.A developing Asia emission trading scheme(Asia ETS)[J].Energy Economics,2012,34(2):S436-S443
[12]杨志,陈波.中国建立区域碳交易市场势在必行[J].学术月刊,2010(7):65-69,77.Yang Z,Chen B.China’s establishment of a regional carbon trading market is imperative[J].Academic Monthly,2010(7):65-69,77(in Chinese)
[13]隗斌贤,揭筱纹.基于国际碳交易经验的长三角区域碳交易市场构建思路与对策[J].管理世界,2012(2):175-176.Wei B X,Jie X W.Ideas and countermeasures for the construction of the regional carbon market in the Yangtze River Delta based on international experience in carbon trading[J].Management World,2012,(2):175-176(in Chinese)
[14]刘宇,蔡松锋,王毅,等.分省与区域碳市场的比较分析:基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCO2[J].财贸经济,2013(11):117-127.Liu Y,Cai S F,Wang Y,et al.Comparative analysis of provincial and regional carbon markets:based on China’s multi-regional general equilibrium model TermCO2[J].Finance and Trade Economy,2013(11):117-127(in Chinese)
[15]陈德湖,潘英超,武春友.中国二氧化碳的边际减排成本与区域差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(10):86-93.Chen D H,Pan YC,Wu C Y.Study on marginal abatement costs and regional differences of carbon dioxide in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016,26(10):86-93(in Chinese)
[16]SongY Z,Liu T S,Li Yin,et al.Region division of China’s carbon market based on the provincial/municipal carbon intensity[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,164:1312-1323
[17]Cui L B,Fan Y,Zhu L,et al.How will the emissions trading scheme save cost for achieving China’s 2020 carbon intensity reduction target?[J].Applied Energy,2014,136(12):1043-1052
[18]Solomon S.IPCC(2007):climate change the physical science basis[C]//AGU Fall Meeting.AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts,2007:123-124
[19]张忠利.韩国碳排放交易法律及其对我国的启示[J].东北亚论坛,2016,25(5):50-62,127.Zhang Z L.Korea’s emission trading law and its enlightenment to China[J].Northeast Asian Forum,2016,25(5):50-62,127(in Chinese)
[20]蔡博峰.东京市碳排放总量控制和交易体系及对我国的启示[J].环境经济,2011(12):41-46.Cai B F.The Tokyo cap-and-trade program and its enlightenment to China[J].Environmental Economy,2011(12):41-46(in Chinese)
[21]World Bank.State and trends of the carbon market(2017)[R].Washington DC,2017
[22]吴静,王诗琪,王铮.世界主要国家气候谈判立场演变历程及未来减排目标分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(3):202-216.Wu J,Wang S Q,Wang Z.The evolution course of the world’s leading national climate negotiating position and future target analysis[J].Climate Change Research,2016,12(3):202-216(in Chinese)
[23]翁青青.气候外交话语中的隐喻和身份构建:以英国、加拿大、中国在历次气候大会上的发言为例[J].当代亚太,2013(5):139-156,160.Weng Q Q.Climate diplomacy discourse of metaphor and identity building:in Britain,Canada and China on various climate conference speech as an example[J].Contemporary Asia-Pacific,2013(5):139-156,160(in Chinese)
[24]佟德志.从混合到共和:西方政体复合论发展的历史与逻辑[J].国外理论动态,2016(9):89-97.Tong D Z.From the mixing of the republic:western polity composite theory of development of history and logic[J].The Foreign Theory of Dynamic,2016(9):89-97(in Chinese)
[25]沈丹枫.比较联邦制与单一制政体下的府际关系:以美国和中国为例[J].法制博览,2017(9):201-202.Shen D F.Comparison under the federal system and unitary regime of the house of international relations,in the United States and China,for example[J].Legal Expo,2017(9):201-202(in Chinese)
[26]IPCC.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[27]IPCC.Special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage[M].Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2005
[28]IPCC.Climate change 2007:mitigation of climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007
[29]ICAP.Emissions trading worldwide:status report 2017[R].Berlin:ICAP,2017
[30]World Bank.State and trends of the carbon market(2010)[R].Washington DC,2010
[31]HM Treasury.Stern review on the economics of climate change[EB/OL].2011[2018-10-22].http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_report
[32]Mary E H.California climate change initiatives leading the west and the nation[J].Natural Resources and Environment,2008,3(22):14-19
[33]唐方方.气候变化与碳交易[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2012.Tang F F.Climate change and carbon trading[M].Beijing:Beijing University Press,2012(in Chinese)
[34]王毅刚.碳排放交易制度的中国道路[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2011.Wang Y G.Carbon emissions trading system of China[M].Beijing:Economic Management Press,2011(in Chinese)
[35]UNEP.Overview of the Republic of Korea’s national strategy for green growth[R].2010:15-16
(1)试点碳市场包括京、津、沪、渝、粤、鄂、深7省市试点碳市场和2016年12月22日开市的福建碳市场。
(2)www.worldbank.org/elibrary。
(3)数据来源:The World Development Indicators(WDI)2015 Database。