基于非对称灰色云模型的装备维修保障系统效能评估
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摘要
针对装备维修保障系统效能评估过程中决策信息的模糊性、随机性和不完备性问题,建立了非对称灰色云模型对系统效能进行评估。在分析正态灰色云模型局限性的基础上建立了非对称灰色云模型,使模型的特征值取值更加灵活;提出了基于主观和客观综合赋权法的指标权重确定方法,使指标权重综合反映主观和客观两方面的因素;通过灰色定权聚类确定了评价对象所属的灰类;结合具体算例展示了模型的应用过程,并将评估结果与分形评估算法和集对分析法的评估结果进行了比较分析。研究结果表明:非对称灰色云模型具有更强的实用性;基于非对称灰色云模型及主观和客观综合赋权法的效能评估方法适用于装备维修保障系统效能评估,且评估结果可信。
For the fuzziness,randomness and incompleteness of decision information in the process of effectiveness evaluation of equipment maintenance support system,an asymmetric grey cloud model is established to evaluate the system effectiveness. On the basis of analyzing the limitations of normal grey cloud model,an asymmetric grey cloud model is established,in which the characteristic values become more flexible. A method of determining the index weight based on the subjective and objective integrated weights is proposed,so that the index weight can reflect both subjective and objective factors. The grey class of systems is determined by grey fixed weight clustering method. The application process of the proposed model is illustrated by an example,and the evaluated results are compared with those of fractal evaluation algorithm and set-pair analysis method. The research results show that the asymmetric grey cloud model is more practical than the original method. The proposed method is applicable to the effectiveness evaluation of equipment maintenance support system.
For the fuzziness,randomness and incompleteness of decision information in the process of effectiveness evaluation of equipment maintenance support system,an asymmetric grey cloud model is established to evaluate the system effectiveness. On the basis of analyzing the limitations of normal grey cloud model,an asymmetric grey cloud model is established,in which the characteristic values become more flexible. A method of determining the index weight based on the subjective and objective integrated weights is proposed,so that the index weight can reflect both subjective and objective factors. The grey class of systems is determined by grey fixed weight clustering method. The application process of the proposed model is illustrated by an example,and the evaluated results are compared with those of fractal evaluation algorithm and set-pair analysis method. The research results show that the asymmetric grey cloud model is more practical than the original method. The proposed method is applicable to the effectiveness evaluation of equipment maintenance support system.
引文
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[10]艾宝利,陈天平,武昌.基于扩展贝叶斯理论的装备维修保障系统效能评估[J].海军工程大学学报,2011,23(3):44-48.AI B L,CHEN T P,WU C. Effectiveness evaluation of maintenance support system based on patulous Bayes theory[J]. Journal of Naval University of Engineering,2011,23(3):44-48.(in Chinese)
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[12]王永攀,杨江平,王敏,等.雷达维修保障系统效能的云重心评估[J].火力与指挥控制,2015,40(3):56-59.WANG Y P,YANG J P,WANG M,et al. Efficiency evaluation of radar maintenance support system based on cloud gravity center assessment[J]. Fire Control&Command Control, 2015,40(3):56-59.(in Chinese)
[13] LI D Y,LIU C Y,GAN W Y. A new cognitive model:cloud model[J]. International Journal of Intelligent Systems,2009,24(3):357-375.
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[16]米传民,刘思峰,党耀国,等.灰色熵权聚类决策方法研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(12):1823-1825.MI C M,LIU S F,DANG Y G,et al. Study on grey entropy weight clustering decision-making[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics,2006,28(12):1823-1825.(in Chinese)
[17] LIU S F,YANG Y J,XIE N M,et al. New progress of grey system theory in the new millennium[J]. Grey Systems Theory&Application,2016,6(1):2-31.
[18]陈玥.基于灰色系统理论和云模型的反精确洪水灾害分析[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2010.CHEN Y. Grey system theory and cloud model based anti-accuracy analysis of flood disaster[D]. Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2010.(in Chinese)
[19]王洪利,冯玉强.基于灰云的改进白化模型及其在灰色决策中的应用[J].黑龙江大学自然科学学报,2006,23(6):740-745.WANG H L,FENG Y Q. Ablation model based on the improved gray cloud and its applicant in the gray decision[J]. Journal of Natural Science of Heilongjiang University,2006,23(6):740-745.(in Chinese)
[20]王双川,吕瑞强,胡恩勇,等.基于三角白化权函数的装备维修合同商服务质量评估[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2016,30(5):20-24.WANG S C,LR Q,HU E Y,et al. Service quality evaluation of equipment maintenance contractor based on triangle whiten weight function[J]. Journal of Academy of Armored Force Engineering,2016,30(5):20-24.(in Chinese)
[21]彭绍雄,王海涛,邹强.潜空导弹武器系统作战效能评估模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(1):267-272.PENG S X,WANG H T,ZOU Q. Combat effectiveness evaluation model of submarine-to-air missile weapon system[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(1):267-272.(in Chinese)
[22]王雁凌,张雪佼,阎敬民.基于变权灰色云模型的风电场并网技术性综合评价[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3546-3551.WANG Y L,ZHANG X J,YAN J M. Weight-varying gray cloud model based comprehensive evaluation on technical performance of overall grid-integration of wind farm[J]. Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3546-3551.(in Chinese)
[23]王斐,梁晓庚,郭超,等.灰云熵权聚类的制导仿真系统可信度评估[J].系统仿真学报,2015,27(8):1703-1707.WANG F,LIANG X G,GUO C,et al. Guidance simulation credibility evaluation based on clustering with grey cloud and entropy weight[J]. Journal of System Simulation,2015,27(8):1703-1707.(in Chinese)
[24]蔡红梅,陈剑勇,苏浩益.基于灰云模型的电力变压器故障诊断[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(12):151-155.CAI H M,CHEN J Y,SU H Y. Fault diagnosis of power transformer based on grey cloud model[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(12):151-155.(in Chinese)
[25]龚慧佳,轩少永,胡甚平,等.基于灰云模型的海上交通系统风险推理方法[J].中国航海,2016,39(2):87-91.GONG H J,XUAN S Y,HU S P,et al. Reasoning method for risk in marine traffic system based on grey cloud model[J]. Navigation of China,2016,39(2):87-91.(in Chinese)
[26] LI T,YANG X. Risk assessment model for water and mud inrush in deep and long tunnels based on normal grey cloud clustering method[J]. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering,2018,22(5):1991-2001.
[27]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(8):28-34.LI D Y,LIU C Y. Study on the universality of the normal cloud model[J]. Strategic Study of CAE,2004,6(8):28-34.(in Chinese)
[28] MA J,FAN Z P,HUANG L H. A subjective and objective integrated approach to determine attribute weights[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2009,112(2):397-404.
[29] BEVILACQUA M,BRAGLIA M. The analytic hierarchy process applied to maintenance strategy selection[J]. Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2000,70(1):71-83.
[30]张媛,刘文彪,张立民.基于主客观综合赋权的CGF态势评估建模研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2013,35(1):85-90.ZHANG Y, LIU W B, ZHANG L M. Situation assessment modeling for CGF based on the subjective and objective integrated weight[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics,2013,35(1):85-90.(in Chinese)
[2]杜晓明,古平,高鲁.基于仿真的装备保障效能评估[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2017:118.DU X M,GU P,GAO L. Effectiveness evaluation of equipment support based on simulation[M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2017:118.(in Chinese)
[3]韩坤,何成铭,刘维维,等.以系统效能为目标的装甲车辆可靠性、维修性、保障性和测试性权衡分析[J].兵工学报,2014,35(2):268-272.HAN K,HE C M,LIU W W,et al. Trade-off analysis of reliability/maintenanability/supportability/testability of armored vehicle based on system effectiveness[J]. Acta Armamentarii,2014,35(2):268-272.(in Chinese)
[4]萧元星,毛和瑞.系统效能建模方法综述[J].兵工学报,1997,18(3):256-259.XIAO Y X,MAO H R. An overview of modeling methods for the representation of system effectiveness[J]. Acta Armamentarii,1997,18(3):256-259.(in Chinese)
[5] GL T,STEWART T J,HANNE T. Multi-criteria decision making:advances in MCDM models,algorithms,theory and applications[J]. Interfaces,2009,31(3):118-119.
[6]阚于龙.舰船维修保障系统效能评估及优化决策[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2007.KAN Y L. Warship maintenance system effectiveness evaluation and optimization decision[D]. Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2007.(in Chinese)
[7]穆富岭,武昌,吴德伟.维修保障系统效能评估中的变权综合法初探[J].系统工程与电子技术,2003,25(6):693-696.MU F L,WU C,WU D W. Study on the synthetic method of variable weight of effectiveness evaluation of maintenance support system[J]. System Engineering and Electronics,2003,25(6):693-696.(in Chinese)
[8] WEI X L,CHEN Z W,ZHOU Z Z. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the quality of vehicle equipment maintenance based on membership degree transformation algorithm[C]∥Proceedings of the Symposium on Advances in Electronic Engineering,Communication and Management. Berlin,Germany:Springer,2012:453-458.
[9]杨懿,刘涵,武昌,等.维修保障系统效能的分形评估算法研究[J].系统仿真学报,2006,18(10):2925-2928.YANG Y,LIU H,WU C,et al. Study of effectiveness evaluation of maintenance support system based on fractal conception[J].Journal of System Simulation,2006,18(10):2925-2928.(in Chinese)
[10]艾宝利,陈天平,武昌.基于扩展贝叶斯理论的装备维修保障系统效能评估[J].海军工程大学学报,2011,23(3):44-48.AI B L,CHEN T P,WU C. Effectiveness evaluation of maintenance support system based on patulous Bayes theory[J]. Journal of Naval University of Engineering,2011,23(3):44-48.(in Chinese)
[11]陈晓,杨懿,毕一鸣.基于集对分析的维修保障系统效能评估[J].火力与指挥控制,2009,34(1):75-78.CHEN X,YANG Y,BI Y M. Study of effectiveness evaluation of maintenance support system based on set pair analysis[J]. Fire Control&Command Control,2009,34(1):75-78.(in Chinese)
[12]王永攀,杨江平,王敏,等.雷达维修保障系统效能的云重心评估[J].火力与指挥控制,2015,40(3):56-59.WANG Y P,YANG J P,WANG M,et al. Efficiency evaluation of radar maintenance support system based on cloud gravity center assessment[J]. Fire Control&Command Control, 2015,40(3):56-59.(in Chinese)
[13] LI D Y,LIU C Y,GAN W Y. A new cognitive model:cloud model[J]. International Journal of Intelligent Systems,2009,24(3):357-375.
[14] WANG G Y,XU C L,LI D Y. Generic normal cloud model[J].Information Sciences,2014,280(1):1-15.
[15] PENG L H,ZHANG L W,JI B M,et al. Maintenance performance evaluation based on matter element analysis of aviation maintenance[C]∥Proceedings of the 1st Symposium on Aviation Maintenance and Management. Berlin, Germany:Springer,2014:657-664.
[16]米传民,刘思峰,党耀国,等.灰色熵权聚类决策方法研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(12):1823-1825.MI C M,LIU S F,DANG Y G,et al. Study on grey entropy weight clustering decision-making[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics,2006,28(12):1823-1825.(in Chinese)
[17] LIU S F,YANG Y J,XIE N M,et al. New progress of grey system theory in the new millennium[J]. Grey Systems Theory&Application,2016,6(1):2-31.
[18]陈玥.基于灰色系统理论和云模型的反精确洪水灾害分析[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2010.CHEN Y. Grey system theory and cloud model based anti-accuracy analysis of flood disaster[D]. Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2010.(in Chinese)
[19]王洪利,冯玉强.基于灰云的改进白化模型及其在灰色决策中的应用[J].黑龙江大学自然科学学报,2006,23(6):740-745.WANG H L,FENG Y Q. Ablation model based on the improved gray cloud and its applicant in the gray decision[J]. Journal of Natural Science of Heilongjiang University,2006,23(6):740-745.(in Chinese)
[20]王双川,吕瑞强,胡恩勇,等.基于三角白化权函数的装备维修合同商服务质量评估[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2016,30(5):20-24.WANG S C,LR Q,HU E Y,et al. Service quality evaluation of equipment maintenance contractor based on triangle whiten weight function[J]. Journal of Academy of Armored Force Engineering,2016,30(5):20-24.(in Chinese)
[21]彭绍雄,王海涛,邹强.潜空导弹武器系统作战效能评估模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(1):267-272.PENG S X,WANG H T,ZOU Q. Combat effectiveness evaluation model of submarine-to-air missile weapon system[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(1):267-272.(in Chinese)
[22]王雁凌,张雪佼,阎敬民.基于变权灰色云模型的风电场并网技术性综合评价[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3546-3551.WANG Y L,ZHANG X J,YAN J M. Weight-varying gray cloud model based comprehensive evaluation on technical performance of overall grid-integration of wind farm[J]. Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3546-3551.(in Chinese)
[23]王斐,梁晓庚,郭超,等.灰云熵权聚类的制导仿真系统可信度评估[J].系统仿真学报,2015,27(8):1703-1707.WANG F,LIANG X G,GUO C,et al. Guidance simulation credibility evaluation based on clustering with grey cloud and entropy weight[J]. Journal of System Simulation,2015,27(8):1703-1707.(in Chinese)
[24]蔡红梅,陈剑勇,苏浩益.基于灰云模型的电力变压器故障诊断[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(12):151-155.CAI H M,CHEN J Y,SU H Y. Fault diagnosis of power transformer based on grey cloud model[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(12):151-155.(in Chinese)
[25]龚慧佳,轩少永,胡甚平,等.基于灰云模型的海上交通系统风险推理方法[J].中国航海,2016,39(2):87-91.GONG H J,XUAN S Y,HU S P,et al. Reasoning method for risk in marine traffic system based on grey cloud model[J]. Navigation of China,2016,39(2):87-91.(in Chinese)
[26] LI T,YANG X. Risk assessment model for water and mud inrush in deep and long tunnels based on normal grey cloud clustering method[J]. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering,2018,22(5):1991-2001.
[27]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004,6(8):28-34.LI D Y,LIU C Y. Study on the universality of the normal cloud model[J]. Strategic Study of CAE,2004,6(8):28-34.(in Chinese)
[28] MA J,FAN Z P,HUANG L H. A subjective and objective integrated approach to determine attribute weights[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2009,112(2):397-404.
[29] BEVILACQUA M,BRAGLIA M. The analytic hierarchy process applied to maintenance strategy selection[J]. Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2000,70(1):71-83.
[30]张媛,刘文彪,张立民.基于主客观综合赋权的CGF态势评估建模研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2013,35(1):85-90.ZHANG Y, LIU W B, ZHANG L M. Situation assessment modeling for CGF based on the subjective and objective integrated weight[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics,2013,35(1):85-90.(in Chinese)